The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Well, at present, NB is growing by about 13,000 souls per year. If this growth rate is continued unchanged into the future, then we should hit a provincial population of 1,000,000 in slightly over 15 year (July 2037).

Hopefully I will still be alive to see it.

I would imagine that 13k per year starts to increase over time too. Be curious to see what 2025 is for the total population increase. Especially with a lot of development happening in the 3 major cities.

[Taeolas]

NB1M. What an idea to think of. It's too far out to really plan much about, but the journey will certainly be interesting. Most of the new 200k NBers will go to the tri-cities, and many of those will go to Moncton for certain. But it'll be interesting to see if the northern cities will bounce back and become some growth motors in the province. (They do seem to be stabilizing somewhat).

[JHikka]

Difficult to predict where the future growth might be given that nobody really saw any of this coming a few years ago. Certainly international immigration began tracking up in 2015 but the interprovincial migration was difficult to see coming, if at all.

It's likely that the tri-cities do pick up the lion's share of future growth, but i'm interested in seeing how the periphery municipalities grow as those larger cities sprawl. Places like Sackville, Shediac, Bouctouche, Oromocto, Salisbury, and Hampton are all located in close enough proximity to soak up more residents into the future and grow as satellites to the larger centres. My personal favourite, Sussex, is located neatly between the three larger cities but is too far to grow as a commuter hub and will likely have to situate itself as a crossroads between all three in some way or another. Will be interesting to see play out.

I don't know if I can really predict what will happen in the Northern cities. They are treading water at the moment but still face demographic issues more than their Southern counterparts, and haven't seen that offset from new immigration channels yet. Perhaps they become the more affordable option when the larger cities become increasingly unaffordable.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Certainly international immigration began tracking up in 2015 but the interprovincial migration was difficult to see coming, if at all.

It's impossible to predict the distant future but I think a lot of people are underestimating what's going on by pointing to this being a covid-era change. Some recent shifts, like more flexible remote work and higher housing costs, will stick around.

And there was a complex situation where the Maritimes were uncompetitive due to bad provincial finances and had a bad reputation. As a result they are underdeveloped compared to other provinces. One decision that will have to be made is if they want to be high growth low tax (or just competitive) jurisdictions or not in the future (this is now possible or will become possible with relatively strong provincial finances and improving demographics including a declining median age). If that happens I think they will grow a lot. There's tons of easily developed land in the region, whether we're talking about towns and cities being expanded, scenic rural properties, or perhaps farmland.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by JHikka

I don't know if I can really predict what will happen in the Northern cities. They are treading water at the moment but still face demographic issues more than their Southern counterparts, and haven't seen that offset from new immigration channels yet. Perhaps they become the more affordable option when the larger cities become increasingly unaffordable.

I am more curious what powers the northern cities' economies in the future.

What makes people relocate there? Why will people grow their families there? If they are looking to make a future, young families are the key. Retirees are just a delay against the inevitable. There's plenty of cheap places in Canada, but they're cheap for a reason.

Is southern New Brunswick going to undergo a southern Ontario thing where it becomes unaffordable in the blink of an eye?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Is southern New Brunswick going to undergo a southern Ontario thing where it becomes unaffordable in the blink of an eye?

Probably but when considering migration patterns it's important to look at relative affordability. The gap between southern NB and Ontario is probably bigger today than it was a few years ago or even in 2000, even though price growth has kept pace at times.

We're in a high inflation environment too. Not sure where wages are headed but if they start going up by 5% year-over-year then that has to be factored in.

[Taeolas]

It's a bit hard to guess how the north will go. It will always be more limited than the southern part of the province, but as the saying goes, "a rising tide lifts all boats"; as the province's overall population grows, they should grow as well and start getting more opportunities.

I think Edmundston has been one of the most stable northern cities through the years, partly IMO because it's on the TCH. It's been pivoting to being a Gateway to the Maritimes city (Especially with the big projects like the Grey Rock casino and truckstop) and that should be one of their focuses in the future.

Miramichi is only about 150km from Moncton, and as Moncton and the Strait Coast grows, it will only get closer to Moncton's orbit, which should be something it can grow off of. Maybe not enough for the growth rates the tricities get, but enough to keep growing and to become more and more attractive in the years to come.

Bathurst is in a bit of a bind. It's a northern Hub city of sorts, but its off the beaten track. But it seems to have enough population mass to stay stable and to start growing again. Finding a proper growth axis is probably important for it in the future.

Campbellton is in a rough position. It's a bi-provincial city far from everything else, so it's got the most challenges and will probably benefit the least from NB1M growth.

As for non-city growth, the satellite communities (Salisbury, Sackville, Oromocto, etc...) around the Big 3 will likely benefit the most. St Stephen and Woodstock should also see some good growth from it in the end, from a tourism and a transport angle mainly and by being on the edges of their respective city's growth spheres.

Sussex is in an interesting position. It's midway from the 3 cities so it should benefit from all 3, but it's also not quite in the commuter range of any of them (yet). Route 1 going through it certainly helps link it to Moncton and SJ. I suspect that it will ultimately end up most firmly in SJ's orbit, not just because it is slightly (10km) closer to SJ, but also because SJ's already reaching along Route 1 alot more than Moncton is. Geography makes SJ easier to expand eastward, than in most other directions, while Moncton can go in pretty much any direction it wants (and seems to want to reach to the coasts more than to the west)

15-20 years is an interesting planning time frame. It's far enough away that it is mostly wishful thinking; but it's also just within a generation (and only 4-5 election cycles), so it's close enough to give serious thought to as well. In a couple of years we should have a much better picture of how the province is growing and a better feel for what NB1M will look like.

[MonctonRad]

I think the Restigouche is in the roughest spot, which is too bad as it is such a pretty area.

Next worst is the Acadian Peninsula. Being so isolated and so heavily Francophone makes it a tough sell. They will need to be self sufficient.

Bathurst will be OK. It is the main service centre of the north. Miramichi should be stable too.

I agree that the satellite communities in the south stand to have healthy growth rates. I must admit to being surprised in the last census how strong the growth had been in Sackville.

If I was to choose a dark horse candidate for growth, it would be Salisbury. It's close enough to Moncton to easily become an exurban commuter community. It already is, but I can see this process accelerating.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

It's impossible to predict the distant future but I think a lot of people are underestimating what's going on by pointing to this being a covid-era change. Some recent shifts, like more flexible remote work and higher housing costs, will stick around.

Absolutely. The interprovincial migration affect was beginning slightly before COVID.

Originally Posted by someone123

And there was a complex situation where the Maritimes were uncompetitive due to bad provincial finances and had a bad reputation. As a result they are underdeveloped compared to other provinces. One decision that will have to be made is if they want to be high growth low tax (or just competitive) jurisdictions or not in the future (this is now possible or will become possible with relatively strong provincial finances and improving demographics including a declining median age). If that happens I think they will grow a lot. There's tons of easily developed land in the region, whether we're talking about towns and cities being expanded, scenic rural properties, or perhaps farmland.

I feel as if NB may try and stay the course on low-tax, but I would imagine NS/Halifax would enter into a higher tax environment. I have nothing to really back this up with other than gut instinct, but I feel like NS is more driven by its urban environment (Halifax), whereas NB still concedes territory to rural and non-urban interests. For now, I guess. It's a different dynamic because of the one urban centre NS versus the three urban centre NB and how that plays out provinically.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Sussex is in an interesting position. It's midway from the 3 cities so it should benefit from all 3, but it's also not quite in the commuter range of any of them (yet). Route 1 going through it certainly helps link it to Moncton and SJ. I suspect that it will ultimately end up most firmly in SJ's orbit, not just because it is slightly (10km) closer to SJ, but also because SJ's already reaching along Route 1 alot more than Moncton is. Geography makes SJ easier to expand eastward, than in most other directions, while Moncton can go in pretty much any direction it wants (and seems to want to reach to the coasts more than to the west)

I think it's interesting that most of Moncton's sprawl growth is moving towards the East and North as opposed to the South and West. In an ideal world I guess all three of the cities would sprawl towards each other to create a tighter network, but it makes logical sense that Moncton would move more towards Shediac, Bouctouche, and Sackville instead of Salisbury. Still, i'm interested in seeing growth in Salisbury and Petitcodiac, and however little it may affect things it's worth noting that Halifax and Moncton are sprawling towards each other slightly.

Saint John should still keep pushing NE, though. GBW has shown no growth in the past decade and CFB prevents anything North from really developing at all. There's been good growth towards the SW in Lepreau and St. George but that's still underdeveloped. As Quispamsis, and eventually Hampton, grow, so too will Sussex (eventually). It's all a spiderweb of networking and inter-connectivity in some way.

[Taeolas]

I think Grand Lake and CFB Gagetown prevent the tri-cities from really growing towards eachother. Gagetown is a major impediment of growth between SJ and Freddy, since it is right on the direct route between the cities. If Route 7 had jogged a bit more to the west and followed Route 101 maybe there'd be more north-south development between the cities.

Similarly for the Freddy-Moncton side of the triangle, you once again have CFB Gagetown taking up a good 20 km of growth potential between them, and then you have 80km of wilderness between Coles Island and Salisbury; not much there to encourage the cities to grow towards eachtoher. (especially with Grand Lake also being in the way).

So Freddy is likely always going to stay somewhat isolated from SJ and Moncton; but we will probably eventually see an SJ-Sussex-Moncton corridor develop along Route 1. If only we had CFB Minto or CFB Nashwaak instead of CFB Gagetown (ie put the base on the North side of the SJ River); those growth corridors between Freddy and Moncton and SJ could have remained open and we'd probably see some different growth patterns.

Moncton and SJ's growth patterns were noted above. As for Freddy, it's a little difficult to see where it will grow.

On the Northside of the river, growth feels a bit more constrained since the flood plains seem bigger on that side, not to mention the Naswaak river. Growth seems mainly focused along Brookside and towards Stanley in general, but growth along Route 10 is certainly possible. But the flood plains along the SJ and Naswaak will likely discourage growth, but the 105 might be enough of an artery to encourage group towards Mactaquac and Keswick.

On the south side, the river is less of a factor. Growth on the Lincoln/Oromocto corridor is almost complete other than densification. There is a lot more open sprawl space going south to New Maryland and Hanwell, and going upriver towards Nackawic.

Basically as far as growth angles go, Moncton seems to be the most open, able to grow in pretty much any direction. Freddy feels the next most open, constrained by the flood plains but otherwise pretty open. And SJ is the most constrained, hemmed in by the Bay and bisected by the mouth of the rivers.

[KnoxfordGuy]

New Brunswick will hit 800,000 tonight or tomorrow morning! The clock says 799,932 as of 11:10 am Atlantic.

Edit: Just an update; should be about 30 hours from now to hit 800,000. We are gaining 10 people every 5 hours.

[MonctonRad]

799,983 at present (9:20 AM). Today should be the day.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Some content for the 800,000 New Brunswickers excitement...we passed into the 700,000s 40 years ago!

[MonctonRad]

NB is now at 799,996. If anyone wants to watch the counter click over in real time, they should tune in now. It's probably going to happen in the next hour.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

NB is now at 799,996. If anyone wants to watch the counter click over in real time, they should tune in now. It's probably going to happen in the next hour.

I think two people just moved to Alberta.

[MonctonRad]

I think we just received a Ukrainian refugee. A non permanent resident has been added, giving us 799,997.

[Fischbob]

799,998 on my view right now. Almost there!

Unfortunately I have to go out soon, so I'll probably miss it

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

799,998 on my view right now. Almost there!
Unfortunately I have to go out soon, so I'll probably miss it

It was 999 for a few minutes but dropped back down.

[JonHiseler]

And New Brunswick has done it! They've reached the 800,000 mark!

And just as I posted this, it went down by two lol

[KnoxfordGuy]

At 4:42pm Atlantic, New Brunswick hit a population of 800,000 for the first time. It will no doubt fluctuate around there for a time but it is an upward projection!