Who did you vote for?

[Loco101]

I agree with you both.

I find that AB and SK do such a poor job of selling themselves and their ideas. The whining and insults are truly pathetic. I hope that many in those two provinces act more maturely and have some vision.

As for Andrew Scheer, he's in an interesting situation. He will argue that he increased the number of CPC seats and that his party got the most votes. But his chances of growth in support are virtually nil. Going by what normally happens in this situation...he will get a good result in his leadership review in April. Probably around 75% or maybe a bit higher. But this is because many don't want a leadership race and all that goes with it and because an election will likely occur in less than 4 years. Scheer's inner circle will be working hard to make the party appear united and content and will use tactics to make members afraid to question the leadership and demand it change. They will insist that the CPC will appear weak and divided if Scheer is challenged and that they will be handing another victory to the Liberals. They will say that it's not about the leader and that serious leadership is needed and Scheer is the person to do that as he isn't foolish like Trudeau.

Basically it's very similar to what happened to former ON PC leader Tim Hudak. Here's are a couple of article sabout how Hudak came close to going through a leadership review in 2013. Scheer's people will use the exact same tactics:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ticle14451390/

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/0...n_3755756.html

[whatnext]

Some analysis from Macleans on why the Conservatives lost. Basically their vote share decreased in urban Ontario and Quebec (and to a lesser degree in BC).

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ott...rvatives-lost/

[CityTech]

This is quite the chart.

[WarrenC12]

We need actuals not % though.. that chart is deceiving.

[kwoldtimer]

Any speculation yet on the new Trudeau cabinet? I'm assuming Morneau and Lametti will stay put? I'd say same for Freeland, but she's getting close to her "best before" date on matters Russian. Will we see Guilbeaut at Environment, or will that be too risky? Among the sundries, Chaggar has been impressive for a first timer and probably merits a higher profile. Apart from Guilbeault, could van Koeverden be a first-timer headed straight to cabinet (or spend an apprenticeship as a Parliamentary Secretary?)?

[CityTech]

If Guilbeault goes to environment, they'd need to find something else for McKenna. While McKenna hasn't exactly been stellar as a minister, I doubt they'd take her out.

Two of Kathleen Wynne's former cabinet ministers made it to Parliament this time: Marie-France Lalonde and Helena Jaczek. Both were considered fairly strong performers, and they are both women, relevant given Trudeau's stated intent to have a half-female cabinet. They might get into cabinet.

Incidentally, Jaczek unseated Philpott. And Lalonde replaced Andrew Leslie.

It's not surprising that so many politicians go from Queen's Park to the Hill. Despite the fact that Ontario largely uses the same riding borders provincially as federally (so most Ontario politicians have the exact same riding size, and thus workload, as federal MPs), Ontario pays them 30% less and they have no pension plan at all.

Quite a few Conservative MPs that were defeated in 2015 ran for seats at Queen's Park in 2018. Paul Calandra, Greg Rickford, Rick Dykstra, and Daryl Kramp immediately come to mind. Given that being an Ontario legislator is such a downgrade, compensation wise, from being an MP, it says a lot about how likely they thought they were to stand a chance at being returned to Parliament federally in 2019.

[misher]

Originally Posted by CityTech

This is quite the chart.

Its become pretty clear that most of the nation is unhappy with where Trudeau is taking us. Hopefully he turns back somewhat. I could see many more people voting Liberal if he stops going NDP.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

We need actuals not % though.. that chart is deceiving.

Chart shows percentage point change.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by CityTech

If Guilbeault goes to environment, they'd need to find something else for McKenna. While McKenna hasn't exactly been stellar as a minister, I doubt they'd take her out.

Two of Kathleen Wynne's former cabinet ministers made it to Parliament this time: Marie-France Lalonde and Helena Jaczek. Both were considered fairly strong performers, and they are both women, relevant given Trudeau's stated intent to have a half-female cabinet. They might get into cabinet.

Incidentally, Jaczek unseated Philpott. And Lalonde replaced Andrew Leslie.

Here's a curveball - how about McKenna at Global Affairs, or one of the associated ministries?

[travis3000]

Another take from National Posts' Conservative pundit Kelly Mcparland

https://nationalpost.com/news/politi...d-a-new-leader

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by CityTech

This is quite the chart.

Wow, that says a lot about how The Conservatives and Andrew Scheer gained popularity across the country, even though Ford factor kept Ontario low with status quo weight of Conservative seats. Conservatives increase in votes didn't translate into seats due to system where votes are not weighted equally in representing voters wishes for which party should govern the country, only who should be MP for any particular riding.

Newfoundland & Labrador voters shifted in droves toward Andrew Scheer & The Conversatives, more than any other province in Canada!!

They must have really liked Andrew and The Conservative party's platform a lot as compared to 2015. The votes didn't translate into Conservative MP representatives for that province though, too small of number of ridings to begin with to ever make much of a difference nationally. Next election, whether it be in 1 year or 4 years from now, Andrew Scheer will likely gain even more popularity in Newfoundland & the rest of Atlantic Canada with Conservatives sending more MPs to Ottawa, Andrew being the best option in comparison to what ever leader the liberals have.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

Newfoundland & Labrador voters shifted in droves toward Andrew Scheer & The Conversatives, more than any other province in Canada!!

They must have really liked Andrew and The Conservative party's platform a lot as compared to 2015.

Well, 2015 was an exceptionally bad year. This was returning to a more typical amount of support, which wasn't enough to win any seats.

[misher]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

Wow, that says a lot about how The Conservatives and Andrew Scheer gained popularity across the country, even though Ford factor kept Ontario low with status quo weight of Conservative seats. Conservatives increase in votes didn't translate into seats due to system where votes are not weighted equally in representing voters wishes for which party should govern the country, only who should be MP for any particular riding.

Newfoundland & Labrador voters shifted in droves toward Andrew Scheer & The Conversatives, more than any other province in Canada!!

They must have really liked Andrew and The Conservative party's platform a lot as compared to 2015. The votes didn't translate into Conservative MP representatives for that province though, too small of number of ridings to begin with to ever make much of a difference nationally. Next election, whether it be in 1 year or 4 years from now, Andrew Scheer will likely gain even more popularity in Newfoundland & the rest of Atlantic Canada with Conservatives sending more MPs to Ottawa, Andrew being the best option in comparison to what ever leader the liberals have.

I wonder if it’s related to Newfoundland’s oil refinery.

[thurmas]

That chart is horse shit it is basing gains off of 2015 results which was the Conservatives worst showing ever in Atlantic Canada in 152 years even worse than 1993 where at least Elsie Wayne won a seat. A cardboard box as Tory leader would have maid gains in Atlantic Canada this year it wasn't hard to do. Where Scheer needed the most growth in cough cough Ontario and Quebec he actually regressed the party. I will not be shocked if Scheer is dumped at the April Tory convention as it is in Toronto not out west where close to half the delegates will be coming in from the surrounding GTA area pissed off with how Scheer bungled such a winnable campaign. Peter MacKay already has the knives out to try and get the job.

[vid]

In Newfoundland, Conservatives got 4.57% to 18.28% in ridings in 2015, and came in third in 3 of 7 ridings, and 4th in one. In 2018, they got 18.06% to 39.46% and came in third in 2 ridings (out of 7). It's a pretty big jump, but still not enough. The riding they did the best in, Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, the Liberals were still 6% ahead. They got 10% of that riding in 2015.

Alberta is still pissed off at them, because Alberta's a snowflake.

I'm actually kind of impressed with how much Conservatives are hating Scheer. Maxime Bernier probably would have done even worse, because he absolutely would have campaigned with Doug Ford and his message as PPC leader clearly wasn't a popular one.

[thurmas]

The 2017 tory leadership crop was probably the weakest in Canadian political history. You had Scheer, Mad Max, Kevin O'Leary, Kellie Leitch, Erin O'something? and yeah the rest I can't even remember it was pretty sad.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Here's a curveball - how about McKenna at Global Affairs, or one of the associated ministries?

Pretty sure Freeland stays at Global Affairs.

Guilbeault is a shoo-in for Environnent. Otherwise why would he be there?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by thurmas

The 2017 tory leadership crop was probably the weakest in Canadian political history. You had Scheer, Mad Max, Kevin O'Leary, Kellie Leitch, Erin O'something? and yeah the rest I can't even remember it was pretty sad.

I forgot about O'Leary and Leitch. What a dog's breakfast.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Pretty sure Freeland stays at Global Affairs.

Guilbeault is a shoo-in for Environnent. Otherwise why would he be there?

Indeed, it seems like a no-brainer and a horrible train wreck waiting to happen. Can Trudeau keep Guilbeault under control? I don't know the man.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

Wow, that says a lot about how The Conservatives and Andrew Scheer gained popularity across the country, even though Ford factor kept Ontario low with status quo weight of Conservative seats. Conservatives increase in votes didn't translate into seats due to system where votes are not weighted equally in representing voters wishes for which party should govern the country, only who should be MP for any particular riding.

Newfoundland & Labrador voters shifted in droves toward Andrew Scheer & The Conversatives, more than any other province in Canada!!

They must have really liked Andrew and The Conservative party's platform a lot as compared to 2015. The votes didn't translate into Conservative MP representatives for that province though, too small of number of ridings to begin with to ever make much of a difference nationally. Next election, whether it be in 1 year or 4 years from now, Andrew Scheer will likely gain even more popularity in Newfoundland & the rest of Atlantic Canada with Conservatives sending more MPs to Ottawa, Andrew being the best option in comparison to what ever leader the liberals have.

As the others have said, that chart is a little misleading for the east coast because 2015 was a 100+ year low for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, so it was more of a rebound to historic levels. This is especially the case in Newfoundland, where Harper was extremely unpopular and the Conservatives fell to stupendously low levels there in the 2008, 2011, and 2015 elections. So it makes sense that once Harper was gone things would pick up for them out in NL.