Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[TitleRequired]

A tough part of sales is lead generation. Getting a list of people that might align with your product in order to sell them that product is HARD.

A classic political means to do so is a petition. An example:

https://www.newbrunswickpc.ca/trudeausplan

Is a masterclass in lead generation. Please provide your name, address and phone number and I'll be sure to kick Trudeau in the shins for you. And in the same breath, paint Holt and Trudeau as almost being in a relationship (well, Justin does like blondes....)

Brilliant.

[adamuptownsj]

Mainstreet (558 people polled) has Libs up 41-39 over the PCs, Greens at 13, Alliance at 4 (lol). NDP lumped in with other at 3. They did OK in 2020 but not great. They did excellently in 2018.

Firmly in tossup territory.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Mainstreet (558 people polled) has Libs up 41-39 over the PCs, Greens at 13, Alliance at 4 (lol). NDP lumped in with other at 3. They did OK in 2020 but not great. They did excellently in 2018.

Firmly in tossup territory.

Agreed.

That's closer then 338 has it. If anything the PC have a higher vote efficiency; .65 seat/percent for pc; .55 seat/% for libs and .18 seat/% for greens based on 338 projections.

Translates to 25.35 for PC; 22.55 for libs and 2.32 for greens. If the polling numbers are close or equal; the PCs probably would win.

Pretty close to your thoughts expressed earlier on possible outcomes.

[sailor734]

I’m still thinking there is a very good chance of a Liberal minority. PC’s on the other hand must win a majority as I can’t see a scenario where the Greens support them.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I’m still thinking there is a very good chance of a Liberal minority. PC’s on the other hand must win a majority as I can’t see a scenario where the Greens support them.

What about a PC/Liberal grand coalition?

[TitleRequired]

If re-elected, the Tories would continue to "respectfully disagree" that First Nation lands were never ceded, as the organization has said, citing the Peace and Friendship Treaties.

vs.

Both the Liberal and Green parties take the opposite stance, agreeing with the organization that First Nations' land was not surrendered.

via https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/wolastoqey-survey-parties-divided-1.7326715

From a previous analysis I did years ago, the returning offices containing reserve land almost exclusively vote liberal. Not that around 10,000 on reserve and another 6,000 off reserve, spread over the province, have any real influence in any riding.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

From a previous analysis I did years ago, the returning offices containing reserve land almost exclusively vote liberal. Not that around 10,000 on reserve and another 6,000 off reserve, spread over the province, have any real influence in any riding.

Disagree. Tobique (Carleton-Victoria), St Mary's (Fredericton North), and Burnt Church (Miramichi Bay-Neguac) could all have influence in close elections. Big Cove too in red-green races. The others are too small, and in too-red or too-blue seats.

Tobique 2018 - 2020 raw votes
L 120 -165
PC 8 - 9
G 71 - 40
PA 2 - 1

St Mary's
L 111 - 82
PC 30 - 59
G 49- 110
PA 56 - 13

St Mary's
L 132 - 40
PC 5 - 4
G 46 - 180
PA 7 - 3

Big Cove
L 118 - 77
PC 32 - 27
G 358 - 277


Every action has an equal and opposite reaction so I can't imagine the land claims stuff would endear rural voters to Liberals or Greens. And there's a lot more of them than reserve residents.

[MonctonRad]

A major issue is that nobody seems to know precisely what "aboriginal title" means.

On the face of it, it appears the natives want 100% of the province back, although they would allow existing private land ownership for individuals, but, does this mean they want a share of the property tax revenue from these individuals too???

How would this affect existing municipalities? Would there be a whole new level of government created???

What would be the implications for private corporations and for future development prospects? Would the FN's get an absolute veto???

It seems like a huge ask for a group of people forming only a tiny portion of the population.

There is a lot of fear and suspicion out there.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Disagree. Tobique (Carleton-Victoria), St Mary's (Fredericton North), and Burnt Church (Miramichi Bay-Neguac) could all have influence in close elections. Big Cove too in red-green races. The others are too small, and in too-red or too-blue seats.

Tobique 2018 - 2020 raw votes
L 120 -165
PC 8 - 9
G 71 - 40
PA 2 - 1

St Mary's
L 111 - 82
PC 30 - 59
G 49- 110
PA 56 - 13

St Mary's
L 132 - 40
PC 5 - 4
G 46 - 180
PA 7 - 3

Big Cove
L 118 - 77
PC 32 - 27
G 358 - 277


Every action has an equal and opposite reaction so I can't imagine the land claims stuff would endear rural voters to Liberals or Greens. And there's a lot more of them than reserve residents.

Your right, that's fair enough. I might have looked at the federal results. My point, not well made, is more that there isn't any compelling PC vote. Should have been clearer.

The critical omission that the Liberals did was to underestimate the Green party. They should have squashed this as hard as they could years ago. Not unlike the conservatives and the peoples party. The conservatives run a very rigorous suppression program on the PP to ensure it stays marginalized. The liberals should have considered to to the same with the green party.

Susan Holt is at risk for this.

Progressive Conservative Nicolle Carlin
Green Simon Ouellette
Liberal Susan Holt
New Democratic Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane

Just looking at Freddy South-Silverwood demonstrates this. There is the Blue vote, shared by one person. And the left vote, shared by three people. That's quite the hill to climb for Susan.

It hobbles her ability to help out other candidates outside her riding. She needs to be focused on winning her seat; regardless of the outcomes elsewhere.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Disagree. Tobique (Carleton-Victoria), St Mary's (Fredericton North), and Burnt Church (Miramichi Bay-Neguac) could all have influence in close elections. Big Cove too in red-green races. The others are too small, and in too-red or too-blue seats.

Tobique 2018 - 2020 raw votes
L 120 -165
PC 8 - 9
G 71 - 40
PA 2 - 1

St Mary's
L 111 - 82
PC 30 - 59
G 49- 110
PA 56 - 13

St Mary's
L 132 - 40
PC 5 - 4
G 46 - 180
PA 7 - 3

Big Cove
L 118 - 77
PC 32 - 27
G 358 - 277


Every action has an equal and opposite reaction so I can't imagine the land claims stuff would endear rural voters to Liberals or Greens. And there's a lot more of them than reserve residents.

I'm surprised to learn that there are only some 16,000 indigenous people in NB. Given the amount of controversy they are involved in and the amount of media attention they receive I would have thought the number would have been much higher.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I'm surprised to learn that there are only some 16,000 indigenous people in NB. Given the amount of controversy they are involved in and the amount of media attention they receive I would have thought the number would have been much higher.

I realized this years ago when I looked at the numbers. Agree if you watch/read aptn-lite (cbc) that you would expect a higher population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Nations_in_New_Brunswick

[drewber]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

I realized this years ago when I looked at the numbers. Agree if you watch/read aptn-lite (cbc) that you would expect a higher population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Nations_in_New_Brunswick

I'm Miꞌkmaq but I'm from Newfoundland originally my band is Qalipu so I don't even count towards those numbers. I don't know how many other first Nations residents may live in new Brunswick but not show in that 16,000 number

[Sunnybrae]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I'm surprised to learn that there are only some 16,000 indigenous people in NB. Given the amount of controversy they are involved in and the amount of media attention they receive I would have thought the number would have been much higher.

Oh Boy...... Don't go down that road.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by Sunnybrae

Oh Boy...... Don't go down that road.

Why? Especially when two groups have competing land title claims on 100% of the province.

Not including private land *wink* *wink*

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I'm surprised to learn that there are only some 16,000 indigenous people in NB. Given the amount of controversy they are involved in and the amount of media attention they receive I would have thought the number would have been much higher.

The other # that is interesting is the size of the trans/nb population.

Transgender, Non-binary, & Gender-Diverse Population
The 2021 Census was the first federal census to include population data on transgender and non-binary populations. Based on this, the total transgender population aged 15 and over was 1,365 people in New Brunswick. From this group, 675 people are transgender men and 695 people are transgender women. 815 people are non-binary in New Brunswick. Statistics Canada indicates that Two Spirit is included in the broader category of non-binary. Based on these numbers, New Brunswick had the second highest proportion (0.26%) of transgender men aged 15 to 34, and the third highest proportion (0.39%) of nonbinary people, aged 15 to 34, across Canada. via https://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Depa...24-2025/gender-impact-statement-2024.pdf

[sailor734]

I'm suffering a conundrum this time around that happens from time to time in our system.

My preferred candidate to be my MLA is running for a party I have doubts about supporting.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

• Video Link

Higgs promised property tax reform 6 years ago… he didn’t deliver.

Why should we believe he’ll deliver on any of his promises this time?

[TitleRequired]

Glowing editorial from the national post.

https://archive.ph/WA0XW

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Glowing editorial from the national post.

https://archive.ph/WA0XW

Little rich to call it a three peat considering the 2020 pandemic election.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think the National Post congratulated Trudeau on his three peat, or even brought up the significance.

If Blaine Higgs is conservatism brightest star, someone needs to turn in the lights. Higgs is a dud. The only thing burning bright is the dumpster fire that has been his administration.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Glowing editorial from the national post.

https://archive.ph/WA0XW

Politically the national post editorials have been conservative leaning so this isn't a surprise and means very little