Manitoba Provincial Election

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by EdwardTH

Yeah, but that's still not really how it works. In this case the "pool" is federal tax revenues, and Alberta DOES get a large share of those revenues back, they just get a bit less than they put in, and have-not provinces get a bit more.

You omitted to mention that the main recipient of equalisation payments, is the same province that has put a gun to our heads for the past 50 years, threatening to leave Canada. And you fail to see why that would rub ALberta, the biggest "have" province the wrong way?

PS....$600 billion is not "a bit less"

A better analogy would be: A group of 4 friends golf together every weekend. Green fees for the group are $200. 2 of the friends make great money and are very financially secure, thanks in large part to inheritances (ie - natural resources, not because they work harder or whatever). The other 2 friends work hard at important but underpaid jobs, let's say a transit driver and an EMS. They live paycheque-to-paycheque. The rich friends know the budget is tight for these two, and they enjoy their weekly round together and want it to continue, so they each agree to pay $60 and let the other guys pay $40.

Except life is not a golf game, and that is not how real life works. I'm not sure what World you live in, but in the real World, people get tired of constantly propping up others, with nothing in return, especially when one of the less wealthy friends keeps threatening to take his clubs, and golf at a different course.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by pspeid

This is a good analogy, and I think a lot of Canadians feel this way. Unfortunately there's also a constituency who resents "their" money going to other provinces, no matter how needed it is or how much good it does.

The majority of people west of Manitoba feel this way. You are not knowledgeable of the situation, if you are going to ignore the preferential treatment the Federal Government has given Ontario and Quebec, over the Western provinces since Confederation.

[WildCake]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

You omitted to mention that the main recipient of equalisation payments, is the same province that has put a gun to our heads for the past 50 years, threatening to leave Canada. And you fail to see why that would rub ALberta, the biggest "have" province the wrong way?

PS....$600 billion is not "a bit less"



Except life is not a golf game, and that is not how real life works. I'm not sure what World you live in, but in the real World, people get tired of constantly propping up others, with nothing in return, especially when one of the less wealthy friends keeps threatening to take his clubs, and golf at a different course.

Propping up each other? Your argument can be diluted to tribalist attitudes of us vs them at the provincial level, when these resources should be considered Canadian resources. Fine if you're watching hockey and you cheer for the Flames and not the Canucks cause you live in Alberta and not BC. Not fine when you want to build a strong nation leveraging it's natural resources to the benefits of all Canadians.

It's not like the Feds were sitting back ignoring O&G while Alberta was funding and incentivising the entire industry. The Feds have been propping up O&G with billions in incentives for decades.

If Alberta really feels like it needs revenues maybe it can add a small PST tax (3%?), or even create hard and fast rules around it's O&G revenues to mimic Norway's reserve fund model, rather than pissing it all away to bribe voters everytime there's a boom like an alcoholic uncle on payday.

Also when was the last serious Separatist activity in Québec? If anything it's stronger in Alberta right now.

[WildCake]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The majority of people west of Manitoba feel this way. You are not knowledgeable of the situation, if you are going to ignore the preferential treatment the Federal Government has given Ontario and Quebec, over the Western provinces since Confederation.

Probably because those provinces have the most seats and most population? They are also seats that have a tendency to flip for elections. You see it here in Manitoba. Politicians will pander to swing ridings much more than solid ridings.

Why would the Feds try to buy votes in Alberta (whether CPC or LPC) when even in its urban centres, Albertans will almost unequivocally vote Blue? There's no incentive lol

[EdwardTH]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

You omitted to mention that the main recipient of equalisation payments, is the same province that has put a gun to our heads for the past 50 years, threatening to leave Canada

The last real push for sovereignty was 28 years ago. Since then, other than a fringe movement there has been no real, credible mainstream talk of separation and a strong majority of Quebecers have been against it. It's been over and done for almost 3 decades, no point in still being bitter and petty over it.

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Except life is not a golf game

Well yeah, that's why it's called an analogy

[pspeid]

Originally Posted by WildCake

Probably because those provinces have the most seats and most population? They are also seats that have a tendency to flip for elections. You see it here in Manitoba. Politicians will pander to swing ridings much more than solid ridings.

Ontario and Quebec make up almost 62% of Canada's total population, roughly the same proportion as Winnipeg to the rest of Manitoba.

I have no point to make, it's just an interesting stat...

[cheswick]

Interesting take from Kives on the missteps of the PC party in this campaign, chief amongst them getting Stefanson to go against her true character and be a hard line right-winger.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...ysis-1.6987291

[pspeid]

Anyhoo, back to the provincial election...

Interesting piece on the CBC website about Stephenson and the PC's recent campaign:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...ysis-1.6987291

A number of people here have made similar observations. The Stephenson campaign was very odd, starting off trying to sound caring, then becoming the Alberta-esque anti-Fed angry populist. She seemed to be torn between different camps that want to define the Manitoba PCs. I have no proof, but my gut tells me that they were probably getting advice from Alberta and Saskatchewan conservative groups.

I'm guessing their choice for the next leader of the party (Obby Khan?) will show how they plan to go. I'm no fan of the PC's, but I think they and the province would be best served by listening to local concerns, and not trying to superimpose strategies that work in other provinces here.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by WildCake

Propping up each other? Your argument can be diluted to tribalist attitudes of us vs them at the provincial level, when these resources should be considered Canadian resources. Fine if you're watching hockey and you cheer for the Flames and not the Canucks cause you live in Alberta and not BC. Not fine when you want to build a strong nation leveraging it's natural resources to the benefits of all Canadians.

It's not like the Feds were sitting back ignoring O&G while Alberta was funding and incentivising the entire industry. The Feds have been propping up O&G with billions in incentives for decades.

If Alberta really feels like it needs revenues maybe it can add a small PST tax (3%?), or even create hard and fast rules around it's O&G revenues to mimic Norway's reserve fund model, rather than pissing it all away to bribe voters everytime there's a boom like an alcoholic uncle on payday.

Also when was the last serious Separatist activity in Québec? If anything it's stronger in Alberta right now.

You want to stoke the flames of Quebec separatism. Tell Frankie and the CAQ; or any Quebec political party hydro is a Canadian resource and it belongs to all of Canada; not Quebec.

The difference between Alberta and Norway is that Norway is a sovereign state; Alberta is sub-jurisdiction of a sovereign state. As a result, it does not have full control of its resources and Ottawa takes its own cut of O&G royalties.

[pspeid]

Originally Posted by cheswick

Interesting take from Kives on the missteps of the PC party in this campaign, chief amongst them getting Stefanson to go against her true character and be a hard line right-winger.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...ysis-1.6987291

....or you can just read Cheswick's post! You type way faster than I do!!

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by EdwardTH

The last real push for sovereignty was 28 years ago. Since then, other than a fringe movement there has been no real, credible mainstream talk of separation and a strong majority of Quebecers have been against it. It's been over and done for almost 3 decades, no point in still being bitter and petty over it.

Quebec has a history going back over 50 years in regards to sovereignty. They held two votes to succeed from Canada, and there has always been considerable support for the sovereignty movement. We can't just whitewash history, and say "it happened 25+ years ago." The idea that the movement to make Quebec a separate country as a "fringe movement," is factually incorrect and ridiculous.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by WildCake

Probably because those provinces have the most seats and most population? They are also seats that have a tendency to flip for elections. You see it here in Manitoba. Politicians will pander to swing ridings much more than solid ridings.

Ontario has nearly double the population as Quebec, so I would not really classify Quebec in the same category as Ontario, especially since BC and Alberta are closer in actual population to Quebec than Ontario is. Alberta and BC have been increasing in population at the same rate, and in some years, even more in total numbers from Quebec. In fact, Alberta/BC combined has 1.4 million more people than Quebec.

Why would the Feds try to buy votes in Alberta (whether CPC or LPC) when even in its urban centres, Albertans will almost unequivocally vote Blue? There's no incentive lol

Because that is how the Federal Government can quash Western alienation sentiment. Canada has been doing this with Quebec since the 70s, and in most elections in the past 30 years, they still overwhelmingly vote for the BQ in most elections.

The reason Western Canada tends to vote Conservative, is that the Conservative Government historically has stood up to the needs of Western Canada. The Liberals have historically have not.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by WildCake

Propping up each other? Your argument can be diluted to tribalist attitudes of us vs them at the provincial level, when these resources should be considered Canadian resources. Fine if you're watching hockey and you cheer for the Flames and not the Canucks cause you live in Alberta and not BC. Not fine when you want to build a strong nation leveraging it's natural resources to the benefits of all Canadians.

You are out to lunch, when it comes to the realities of the situation, especially when it pertains to Western alienation. For decades, it's been quite obvious that Ontario and Quebec have been given preferential treatment over Western Provinces. To deny this would mean your knowledge of Canadian issues and history are lacking.

It's not like the Feds were sitting back ignoring O&G while Alberta was funding and incentivising the entire industry. The Feds have been propping up O&G with billions in incentives for decades.

That not really true, especially if one were compare the oil and gas industry with some industries in Ontario and Quebec, such as aerospace, automobile manufacturing, and even Ontario based companies like Loblaws, who all received bailouts in the past 5 years, while oil companies like Encana and others have relocated to the USA, without Ottawa lifting a finger.

Ottawa "Propping up" the oil and gas industry is indicative of your lack of knowledge of the situation.

[pspeid]

Another amusing post-mortem of the Stephenson campaign:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/polit...d285de3c&ei=23

[thurmas]

Had PCs run a simple positive campaign like Gillingham ran last year they likely would have won. A guy like Obby Khan as their next leader who has some charisma and gift of gab should help them.

[pspeid]

After such a brutal campaign, it's refreshing to see some civility. Good on both Stephenson and Kinew to display graciousness, at least for the cameras.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...ting-1.6987839

[wags_in_the_peg]

Originally Posted by pspeid

After such a brutal campaign, it's refreshing to see some civility. Good on both Stephenson and Kinew to display graciousness, at least for the cameras.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...ting-1.6987839

i dont believe that Stefanson was behind all that nastiness, I know a few people that know her and that was not her. I'm assuming some deep pocket party supporters and campaign manager had her behaving that way. Pure speculation...

I agree, ensuring a smooth transition is critical

[pappcam]

Originally Posted by wags_in_the_peg

i dont believe that Stefanson was behind all that nastiness, I know a few people that know her and that was not her. I'm assuming some deep pocket party supporters and campaign manager had her behaving that way. Pure speculation...

I agree, ensuring a smooth transition is critical

I think the powers of the Manitoba PC party were fixated on looking west.

[pspeid]

Originally Posted by pappcam

I think the powers of the Manitoba PC party were fixated on looking west.

My gut feeling is this is true. Conservative strategists sold the Manitoba PCs on the idea that the "angry Trudeau-bashing populist" persona was the ticket to victory. I'm actually quite relieved that this rage-farming didn't seem to work, at least in this election.

[optimusREIM]

Originally Posted by pspeid

My gut feeling is this is true. Conservative strategists sold the Manitoba PCs on the idea that the "angry Trudeau-bashing populist" persona was the ticket to victory. I'm actually quite relieved that this rage-farming didn't seem to work, at least in this election.

I think that probably has something to do with it. That said, I know people who seem to be lifelong devotees of the NDP provincially and liberals federally who certainly thought some of the social issues brought up by the PCs were valid (which surprised me and made me think for a while it might be another PC government).

I'm sure if the campaign was more competently run we might be talking about a much closer loss at the very least, or perhaps even a return to government. To me the failure to establish who they wanted to be going into the election was what cost them.