Here are the compiled stats for the Winter 2023/24 seasonal transborder flying.
Orlando
(note Porter shows 100% loads for Nov/Dec, likely inaccurate)
Fort Lauderdale
(note Porter shows 100% loads for Nov/Dec, likely inaccurate)
Gulf Coast (RSW/TPA)
Las Vegas
WS+F8 combined for ~31K seats and ~22K pax on Orlando, both airlines have removed service for next winter.
F8 had ~26K pax on FLL and nearly 35K seats that will not return.
And of course, ~17K pax and ~22K seats on LAS that is currently a completely vacated market unless (until?) Porter announces something on that route.
AC moving MCO from 2x weekly to 4x weekly will lead to a recovery of approximately 14,000 of those 31,000 lost Orlando seats. Going from 4x to 6x weekly on FLL will lead to approximately 14,000 of those lost ~35,000 seats on FLL.
And here's where the Porter expansion comes into play. Going double daily on MCO and FLL from December 14-April 22 is an additional ~34K seats on each route. MCO started November 21 last year, so that's an additional ~5K in November and FLL started November 28 so an additional ~7K.
So Porter is adding ~39K seats to Orlando and ~41K to FLL. Together with AC, MCO will see ~108,000 seats this winter, and FLL will see ~120,000 - both increases of about 20,000 seats per market.
The gulf coast should be fascinating to watch as well. As of now, WS on RSW is flat compared to last year and AC is moving from 1x weekly to 2x weekly on TPA. With Porter doing TPA 4x weekly, that's about 25K seats for the winter. RSW at 3x weekly is about 17.5K seats.
That means TPA is going from a measly 6,800 seats last winter to about 39,000, almost a 6x increase. RSW over doubles from 13,620 to approximately 30,0000. I still wouldn't be surprised if WS drops RSW.
LAS seems like a no-brainer to be added, as at 3x weekly you're more or less matching the overall F8 capacity from last year. PD will have some feed from connections too. I'd be surprised if they went daily on LAS, but even a 4x/3x split with LAS and maybe PHX or LAX 3x weekly could be an interesting option.