More negative talk about Jansen in the Aussie press and from London:
Potash hubris
Potash has the potential to be a fifth "pillar" for BHP, under management's simplification of the miner.
But Gait cannot understand why BHP has not yet shelved the Jansen potash mine – the last of the megaprojects – as it has its other two megaprojects, the Port Hedland Outer Harbour, and Olympic Dam open pit.
"The economics of the potash market will, we believe, continue to deteriorate for incumbents and hold absolutely no room for a new entrant, particularly one which will have the impact of Jansen", located 135 kilometres east of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan.
"But the real concern about Jansen is what it reveals about BHP's thinking around capital allocation, we have yet to encounter anyone, other than BHP, who thinks the investment makes sense and there is a word for this – hubris.
"However, there may be another reason for Jansen; it may be a stalking horse to facilitate an acquisitive entry into potash."
BHP could think it has the mandate for more large-scale acquisitions, with the obvious candidates being either potash (Potash Corp or Mosaic) or in petroleum (BG), Gait says.
But Gait's view is at odds with that presented by BHP management, who have all but ruled out acquisitions.
Read more:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/minin...#ixzz3O9D364zb