Federal Government & Politics II

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

My understanding of the process is you have to obtain a letter of acceptance from the institution, a provincial attestation letter (for non-grad students), and then you apply. Your application is reviewed and if approved you need to take your passport to a visa office near where you are overseas and they put the permit into your passport. All of that happen in the home country not at the point of entry.

The feds are now limiting the number of people that will be getting acceptance letters and be invited to bring their passports in to a VAC.

I don't think the government is limiting the number processed at the point of entry where the one issued by the VAC with one issued at the border. That would make sense. If your going to turn back someone you ideally want to make that determination when they are back at home.

That does not seem to be the process on the IRCC website:


If we approve your application
You’ll get your study permit

at the port of entry when you arrive in Canada or
mailed to you, if you’re already in Canada
If you applied for your study permit from outside Canada
We’ll send you a port of entry letter of introduction that says you’re allowed to study in Canada. This letter is not your study permit.

You need to bring this letter with you and show it to a border services officer when you arrive in Canada. We’ll also send you an electronic travel authorization (eTA) or a visitor visa (temporary resident visa) to enter Canada, if you need one.

If you’re from a country where you need an eTA, the letter of introduction will include information about your eTA. Your eTA will be linked to your passport and is valid for 5 years or until your passport expires, whichever comes first. It’s important that you travel with the passport you used when you applied for your study permit.

If you’re from a country where you need a visitor visa, the visa will be in your passport. It’ll show if you can enter Canada once or multiple times. You must enter Canada before your visa expires.

If you’re a lawful permanent resident of the United States, travel with a valid green card (or equivalent official proof of status in the U.S.) and a valid passport from your country of nationality (or an equivalent document).

[theman23]

It was reported just a day or two ago that permit issues were up YoY, not entries. Surely by now the Feds would have some grasp on how many of the permits actually show up at our door? This is the go to JT era LPC excuse for when they get caught screwing up: “well actually, the federal government doesn’t do anything. Now please accept this tax hike and give us four more years so we can safeguard our accomplishment of nothing at all”.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Work dress is about combat effectiveness. Not looking good. That silly notion is why we had dumb shit like blousing combat pants and army NCOs making sure people polish combat boots. I'm so glad that era is done. Incoming bullets don't care how good your combats look.

Save the complaints about looks for DEUs. And on that front, part of the reason our DEUs look like crap (the horrible pastel colours) is specifically because the Chain of Command has never cared about DEUs. It's seen as something you wear to work in Ottawa or a few times a year. Forcing people to tailor their DEUs like other countries do is something that should have happened decades ago. But has never really been a thing, as long as I've been in.

I only wore my Naval Combats when I was crossing the brow to go to sea or to go out to the rifle range. Other than that it was always salt and peppers or TWLs.

Heck when I joined, the Officer of the Day on ship wore jacket and tie during the winter months.

I got the new Naval Combats a couple of months ago and have worn them a lot more than the old ones. My only complaint is that they are hot as hell. Great in the fall, winter and spring. Not so great during the summer.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by theman23

It was reported just a day or two ago that permit issues were up YoY, not entries. Surely by now the Feds would have some grasp on how many of the permits actually show up at our door? This is the go to JT era LPC excuse for when they get caught screwing up: “well actually, the federal government doesn’t do anything. Now please accept this tax hike and give us four more years so we can safeguard our accomplishment of nothing at all”.

It should be 100%. It is extremely unlikely that someone would show up a the border with all the paperwork necessary to get a permit and then leave the country without establishing residency.

It is possible that not everyone who receives a letter of introduction shows up at the border, but I can't find anywhere letter of introduction stats are published.

[Truenorth00]

It's probably not 100%. There's always real students shopping around between multiple institutions in multiple countries or somebody who has a family emergency and has to defer. Etc. But I would be surprised if it's not in the mid to high 90s.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

I got the new Naval Combats a couple of months ago and have worn them a lot more than the old ones. My only complaint is that they are hot as hell. Great in the fall, winter and spring. Not so great during the summer.

I was (half) joking the other day that we need to bring back shorts for when we work in hot countries. It was quite difficult for techs to work on the ramp in the Gulf even in t-shirt and pants.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's probably not 100%. There's always real students shopping around between multiple institutions in multiple countries or somebody who has a family emergency and has to defer. Etc. But I would be surprised if it's not in the mid to high 90s.

There is probably the odd emergency (say someone who arrives in Canada in August and then something happens before school starts in September), but students shopping in multiple countries are unlikely to get as far as showing up at the border with all of their paperwork, they will wait until they get their results from other applications.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by theman23

It was reported just a day or two ago that permit issues were up YoY, not entries. Surely by now the Feds would have some grasp on how many of the permits actually show up at our door? This is the go to JT era LPC excuse for when they get caught screwing up: “well actually, the federal government doesn’t do anything. Now please accept this tax hike and give us four more years so we can safeguard our accomplishment of nothing at all”.

The Pontius Pilate approach (washing their hands of stuff) is a huge part of their problem, and why they will get kicked out.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It should be 100%. It is extremely unlikely that someone would show up a the border with all the paperwork necessary to get a permit and then leave the country without establishing residency.

It is possible that not everyone who receives a letter of introduction shows up at the border, but I can't find anywhere letter of introduction stats are published.

Ah Ok, I misread what you quoted in your post.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by casper

Both graphics show a decline with a slightly different slope. They get to the same point, just one does it 3 months earlier. That is nothing to be worried about.

The federal government does not control how many people arrive in the country. It controls the number of visas that are issues. Being issued a visa does not mean your going to make the choice to come to Canada. A good number will apply, get the visa and for whatever reason new come.

If you want to be worked up over a 3-6 month lag so bit it. I am not.

Then who the hell does?

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

I'm guessing that your work probably also doesn't ask you to be prepared to die for your country.

lol nobody’s forcing you to do that job hero

[Hecate]

Multiple People die on the job everyday in Canada. They just don’t get parades and endless news time.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by casper

I read that Bank of Canada excerpt again. Does the bank of Canada have confidence in the government to execute its immigration plan? It makes no conclusion either way.

My read of it is the person who did the modelling adjusted the model based on the (1) Government of Canada having a longer-term target to have temporary workers represent 5% of the Canadian population and (2) adjustments to the non-student programs are not expected until the fall.

The 5% is driven by a number of factors, including the individual decisions of temporary works. Some will stay in Canada, some will move on.

It is not a longer-term target. Marc Miller explicitly announced back in March to reduce the NPR percentage to 5% by 2027. That's the timeline the BOC is running its projections on.

Despite the penchant of his Trudeau administration to keep making announcements left and right, this government has not proposed anything on the TFW and refugees front to materially lower those targets. The BOC clearly says the cap has to be lowered by 70-80% across the board to achieve the target, and not even the international student cap proposed is anything close to that magnitude.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

No problem, we can just set our sights on even more unqualified candidates. There are billions of potential FNSs out there who aren't in Canada yet, I can't believe that by scraping the very bottom of the barrel if that's what it takes, we can't continue to find 1.5-2M suckers per year for the foreseeable future.

I would be concerned about their ability to pay, especially after their borrowed funds already gets eaten up by exorbitant tuition fees (i.e. Trudeau's modern day Head Tax).

Given that key employment markets like Toronto, Southern Ontario and Calgary can't churn out sufficient gig economy and minimum wage McJobs to meet population growth, we're going to end up with a pile of low-skilled destitute students with useless strip mall degrees who won't even be able to afford to share a bed with 10+ South Asian students in the basement with their meagre earnings/scraps.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Then who the hell does?

Exactly. if the Federal government is so incompetent they can't control the amount of people entering the country it's time to turf them out.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

That does not seem to be the process on the IRCC website:

If we approve your application
You’ll get your study permit

I got my description off the IRCC website as well. However it looks like they either simplified it or they have some of date info floating around.

Either way, the government control the number of letters of introduction it hands out. However some people may present them at the point of entry and a small number may bail out before coming to Canada.

I would agree once they enter Canada they are strongly committed to going to school here will likely stick it out for the first year.

I don't know what the stats are for foreign students. The stats for most post-secondary students in Canada on a 4 year program is that around 40-50% of undergrade complete their degree in 4 years. Around 75% complete their undergraduate in 6 years.

Do foreign students in basket weaving (aka college business programs) have a better completion rate? I don't know. I don't know how well they do in comparison to domestic students in "traditional" university programs either.

Originally Posted by jonny24

Then who the hell does?

Let me try to explain this again.

The government of Canada controls the number of people who are accepted and receive invitations to come to Canada.

For those that receive an invitation, the government has little control over the number that chose to show up. They are putting a cap on the number of invitation.

Another way of thinking about this, is if your having a dinner party. You can send our invitations. As the host you have no control over how many of the people actually take you up on your offer.

[MonctonRad]

Then we should deeply restrict the size of our "dinner parties."

I suggest reducing the number of invitations by about 50% to begin with, with an option for deeper cuts down the road if necessary.

And I don't care if Joe's Business College and Auto Body Shop in Kapuskasing squeals about the impact on his business model. Not one iota........

[casper]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Then we should deeply restrict the size of our "dinner parties."

I suggest reducing the number of invitations by about 50% to begin with, with an option for deeper cuts down the road if necessary.

And I don't care if Joe's Business College and Auto Body Shop in Kapuskasing squeals about the impact on his business model. Not one iota........

We should. They introduced a cap, we should be getting close to hitting the cap for this year.

I also have no sympathy for "Joe's Business College and Auto Body Shop". They are taking advantage of the students as well as negatively impacting the local community. They deserve to go out of business.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

We should. They introduced a cap, we should be getting close to hitting the cap for this year.

I also have no sympathy for "Joe's Business College and Auto Body Shop". They are taking advantage of the students as well as negatively impacting the local community. They deserve to go out of business.

Ontario gave a lot of their allocation to colleges though not the career colleges.

Looking at their announcement an interesting nuance is it seems it was applications that were capped. Ontario says the historical approval rate is 60%. If that rate goes up a lot possibly because the schools are vetting better or the bureacrats start approving more with less applications the actual drop in arrivees will be much lower than suggested.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The Pontius Pilate approach (washing their hands of stuff) is a huge part of their problem, and why they will get kicked out.

Yeah. They want to blame the provinces for everything. The new line among Liberal partisans that I've seen is that the provinces wanted more immigration so the Liberals can't be blamed.