Federal Government & Politics II

[Hecate]

Multiple People die on the job everyday in Canada. They just don’t get parades and endless news time.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by casper

I read that Bank of Canada excerpt again. Does the bank of Canada have confidence in the government to execute its immigration plan? It makes no conclusion either way.

My read of it is the person who did the modelling adjusted the model based on the (1) Government of Canada having a longer-term target to have temporary workers represent 5% of the Canadian population and (2) adjustments to the non-student programs are not expected until the fall.

The 5% is driven by a number of factors, including the individual decisions of temporary works. Some will stay in Canada, some will move on.

It is not a longer-term target. Marc Miller explicitly announced back in March to reduce the NPR percentage to 5% by 2027. That's the timeline the BOC is running its projections on.

Despite the penchant of his Trudeau administration to keep making announcements left and right, this government has not proposed anything on the TFW and refugees front to materially lower those targets. The BOC clearly says the cap has to be lowered by 70-80% across the board to achieve the target, and not even the international student cap proposed is anything close to that magnitude.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

No problem, we can just set our sights on even more unqualified candidates. There are billions of potential FNSs out there who aren't in Canada yet, I can't believe that by scraping the very bottom of the barrel if that's what it takes, we can't continue to find 1.5-2M suckers per year for the foreseeable future.

I would be concerned about their ability to pay, especially after their borrowed funds already gets eaten up by exorbitant tuition fees (i.e. Trudeau's modern day Head Tax).

Given that key employment markets like Toronto, Southern Ontario and Calgary can't churn out sufficient gig economy and minimum wage McJobs to meet population growth, we're going to end up with a pile of low-skilled destitute students with useless strip mall degrees who won't even be able to afford to share a bed with 10+ South Asian students in the basement with their meagre earnings/scraps.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Then who the hell does?

Exactly. if the Federal government is so incompetent they can't control the amount of people entering the country it's time to turf them out.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

That does not seem to be the process on the IRCC website:

If we approve your application
You’ll get your study permit

I got my description off the IRCC website as well. However it looks like they either simplified it or they have some of date info floating around.

Either way, the government control the number of letters of introduction it hands out. However some people may present them at the point of entry and a small number may bail out before coming to Canada.

I would agree once they enter Canada they are strongly committed to going to school here will likely stick it out for the first year.

I don't know what the stats are for foreign students. The stats for most post-secondary students in Canada on a 4 year program is that around 40-50% of undergrade complete their degree in 4 years. Around 75% complete their undergraduate in 6 years.

Do foreign students in basket weaving (aka college business programs) have a better completion rate? I don't know. I don't know how well they do in comparison to domestic students in "traditional" university programs either.

Originally Posted by jonny24

Then who the hell does?

Let me try to explain this again.

The government of Canada controls the number of people who are accepted and receive invitations to come to Canada.

For those that receive an invitation, the government has little control over the number that chose to show up. They are putting a cap on the number of invitation.

Another way of thinking about this, is if your having a dinner party. You can send our invitations. As the host you have no control over how many of the people actually take you up on your offer.

[MonctonRad]

Then we should deeply restrict the size of our "dinner parties."

I suggest reducing the number of invitations by about 50% to begin with, with an option for deeper cuts down the road if necessary.

And I don't care if Joe's Business College and Auto Body Shop in Kapuskasing squeals about the impact on his business model. Not one iota........

[casper]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Then we should deeply restrict the size of our "dinner parties."

I suggest reducing the number of invitations by about 50% to begin with, with an option for deeper cuts down the road if necessary.

And I don't care if Joe's Business College and Auto Body Shop in Kapuskasing squeals about the impact on his business model. Not one iota........

We should. They introduced a cap, we should be getting close to hitting the cap for this year.

I also have no sympathy for "Joe's Business College and Auto Body Shop". They are taking advantage of the students as well as negatively impacting the local community. They deserve to go out of business.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

We should. They introduced a cap, we should be getting close to hitting the cap for this year.

I also have no sympathy for "Joe's Business College and Auto Body Shop". They are taking advantage of the students as well as negatively impacting the local community. They deserve to go out of business.

Ontario gave a lot of their allocation to colleges though not the career colleges.

Looking at their announcement an interesting nuance is it seems it was applications that were capped. Ontario says the historical approval rate is 60%. If that rate goes up a lot possibly because the schools are vetting better or the bureacrats start approving more with less applications the actual drop in arrivees will be much lower than suggested.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The Pontius Pilate approach (washing their hands of stuff) is a huge part of their problem, and why they will get kicked out.

Yeah. They want to blame the provinces for everything. The new line among Liberal partisans that I've seen is that the provinces wanted more immigration so the Liberals can't be blamed.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I was (half) joking the other day that we need to bring back shorts for when we work in hot countries. It was quite difficult for techs to work on the ramp in the Gulf even in t-shirt and pants.

I'm not sure if airshow rules are different, but I do recall 5 or 6 years ago, the ground team supporting the CF-18 Hornet demo jet were wearing shorts and team-logo t-shirts. They were definitely military members because they marched around to the side of the jet and saluted the pilot before he departed.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I'm not sure if airshow rules are different, but I do recall 5 or 6 years ago, the ground team supporting the CF-18 Hornet demo jet were wearing shorts and team-logo t-shirts. They were definitely military members because they marched around to the side of the jet and saluted the pilot before he departed.

Definitely air show things.....

That said, units do sometimes give leeway locally. Would just be nice to formalize some of this given that we're more likely to go to cold places than warm ones.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The Pontius Pilate approach (washing their hands of stuff) is a huge part of their problem, and why they will get kicked out.

It's especially intolerable whenever the problem is totally within Federal jurisdiction. Washing their hands off stuff like healthcare and education would already be more acceptable.

[casper]

Originally Posted by lio45

It's especially intolerable whenever the problem is totally within Federal jurisdiction. Washing their hands off stuff like healthcare and education would already be more acceptable.

I would agree not capping the number earlier is clearly a failing of the federal government.

That said, letting the fly-by-night post secondary programs be offered to foreign students is clearly a failing of the provincial government. It is the provinces that are responsible for accrediting post-secondary institutions and the programs they offer. A number of these institutions are also owned by the provincial government. Even worse.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

I would agree not capping the number earlier is clearly a failing of the federal government.

That said, letting the fly-by-night post secondary programs be offered to foreign students is clearly a failing of the provincial government. It is the provinces that are responsible for accrediting post-secondary institutions and the programs they offer. A number of these institutions are also owned by the provincial government. Even worse.

The whole point of these career colleges is they are supposed to respond to market demand. The Feds massively increased demand by removing work restrictions and turning the student visa into a work visa. Some of them may be actually fraudulent and that is the fault of provincial authorities. But if they are actually teaching their advertised program in Microsoft Word then they are doing what provincial authorities expect. Whether or not it is a good idea to admit someone to Canada to learn Microsoft Word is purely a federal decision.

[Acajack]

The feds could choke off the colleges if they wanted to. They control the borders.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The whole point of these career colleges is they are supposed to respond to market demand. The Feds massively increased demand by removing work restrictions and turning the student visa into a work visa. Some of them may be actually fraudulent and that is the fault of provincial authorities. But if they are actually teaching their advertised program in Microsoft Word then they are doing what provincial authorities expect. Whether or not it is a good idea to admit someone to Canada to learn Microsoft Word is purely a federal decision.

I would agree removing the cap on the number of hours a student was allowed to work was a problem. That problem has now been corrected.

You don't travel halfway around the world to learn Microsoft Word. If these schools rework their product around meeting the needs of locals so be it. The feds traditional has not accredited schools, and the provinces would be up in arms if they started to.

I think different provinces are looking at this differently. Here in BC, the province is being allowed to write 83,000 letters of attestation. They are projecting that around 50,000 of those will be accepted by the feds and issued letters of invitation. The province has decided to allocate 53% to public institution and 47% to private institutions.

Graduate students accepted by an accredited university don't need provincial letters.

What is odd, is the Province of BC is upset that their allocation is so low. They are claiming the feds don't understand the unique situation BC is in and the damage the 27% cut in the number of students will cause.

You can't win either way.

Personally, I think the 27% cut sounds reasonable.

[acottawa]

Of course you don’t travel half way around the world to learn Microsoft Word. You travel half way around the world to make way more money in the service sector in Canada than you would back home. This is why lifting the work restrictions led to a massive increase in students at career colleges.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by Hecate

lol nobody’s forcing you to do that job hero

I'm not sure what you're on today, as I've never claimed to be (and am not) military. Gotta say, though, your post sounds quite disrespectful to those who do serve.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by casper

I would agree removing the cap on the number of hours a student was allowed to work was a problem. That problem has now been corrected.

You don't travel halfway around the world to learn Microsoft Word. If these schools rework their product around meeting the needs of locals so be it. The feds traditional has not accredited schools, and the provinces would be up in arms if they started to.

I think different provinces are looking at this differently. Here in BC, the province is being allowed to write 83,000 letters of attestation. They are projecting that around 50,000 of those will be accepted by the feds and issued letters of invitation. The province has decided to allocate 53% to public institution and 47% to private institutions.

Graduate students accepted by an accredited university don't need provincial letters.

What is odd, is the Province of BC is upset that their allocation is so low. They are claiming the feds don't understand the unique situation BC is in and the damage the 27% cut in the number of students will cause.

You can't win either way.

Personally, I think the 27% cut sounds reasonable.

Yet more evidence that the overall intake won't be going down that much.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yet more evidence that the overall intake won't be going down that much.

Since there's a lot at stake for me on whether or not the next government will continue to import massives quantities of FNSs (actually, one can even say that "my job" is to try to analyze if it's time to unload urban Canadian real estate or to buy more), I do pay very close attention and evaluate all factors seriously month after month, and would say, all signs point to Poilievre not reducing the flow too much, regardless of campaign trail talk / Opposition Leader talk.