Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[MonctonRad]

Canadian military buying armed drones for $2.49B
Armed Forces purchasing 11 MQ-9 Reaper drones, delivery expected in 2028
Murray Brewster · CBC News · Posted: Dec 19, 2023 2:12 PM AST | Last Updated: 1 hour ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/arm...rces-1.7063989

A fleet of 11 MQ-9 Reaper drones, built by U.S. defence contractor General Atomics, will be purchased in a $2.49 billion package, Liberal MPs announced Tuesday on behalf of Defence Minister Bill Blair.

As CBC News reported in October, delivery of the remotely piloted aircraft won't take place until 2028 and the air force doesn't expect to have the full fleet up and running until 2033.

The contract involves the delivery of both the drones and six ground stations. The main ground control centre, which houses the aircraft cockpits, will be situated in Ottawa.

The aircraft themselves will be stationed at the military airbases in Greenwood, Nova Scotia and Comox, B.C. Their purchase will require the construction of new hangars.

11 drones doesn't sound like a lot. What do our resident military experts think???

[kwoldtimer]

I'm not understanding how the cost could be jacked up to over $2B. Even considering lifetime costs and groundstations.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Canadian military buying armed drones for $2.49B
Armed Forces purchasing 11 MQ-9 Reaper drones, delivery expected in 2028
Murray Brewster · CBC News · Posted: Dec 19, 2023 2:12 PM AST | Last Updated: 1 hour ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/arm...rces-1.7063989




11 drones doesn't sound like a lot. What do our resident military experts think???

This is just one piece of the puzzle. There should be a range of drones, from the tiny ones used by a platoon of troops, to a larger one used for spotting artillery. Then there are drones specifically for the Navy. The list goes on.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

This is just one piece of the puzzle. There should be a range of drones, from the tiny ones used by a platoon of troops, to a larger one used for spotting artillery. Then there are drones specifically for the Navy. The list goes on.

This makes sense.

One thing that the current Russia/Ukraine War has brought home is how different the modern battlefield is, and how important drone technology is. I presume DND are taking notes. Are their political masters paying attention???

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

11 drones doesn't sound like a lot. What do our resident military experts think???

The one project I sincerely hoped the defence policy update would cancel. Just like Australia did. There's a reason the USAF is starting to retire them. This is very much fighting yesterday's war and I will never understand our Command's fascination with these. These would have been useful a decade ago in Afghanistan. I'm not sure what the point is now. This is the result of mashing two requirements together (Arctic surveillance) and battlefield surveillance and strike, and then ending up with an aircraft that does neither very well. MALE UAVs like the Reapers struggle in icing conditions. So these would suck in the Arctic. That environment requires HALE UAVs like the Global Hawk. And Ukraine has shown that non-stealth UAVs are not survivable in near-peer. You don't hear much about the Bayraktars anymore.

The other big issue is personnel. We're already short. And about to undertake several major transitions simultaneously. So where are going to find the people to operate these. And not just operate these, but analyze all the data it collects. Presumably if we're doing 10 hrs of imagery of the Arctic, somebody has to look at that footage.

Best I can figure is that this is some crawl-walk-run effort where they want to get experience and confidence with drones. Or we'll just have to see which General retires into a VP position at General Atomics Canada. Lol.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

This is just one piece of the puzzle. There should be a range of drones, from the tiny ones used by a platoon of troops, to a larger one used for spotting artillery. Then there are drones specifically for the Navy. The list goes on.

This is correct. We need a spectrum. Which is why this is a misallocation of resources in my opinion. The Army needs something like the Mojave to surveil ahead and hit targets of opportunity. A Reaper is too much for that role. On the other hand, the air force needs to start looking at Combat Collaborative Aircraft to provide attritable mass and force multipliers. Reapers don't do that either. These things will end up like our Army's tanks post-Afghanistan: a logistics burden that almost never gets deployed to any situation that matters. We wouldn't even send this thing to Yemen today if we had them. Let's be honest.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is correct. We need a spectrum. Which is why this is a misallocation of resources in my opinion. The Army needs something like the Mojave to surveil ahead and hit targets of opportunity. A Reaper is too much for that role. On the other hand, the air force needs to start looking at Combat Collaborative Aircraft to provide attritable mass and force multipliers. Reapers don't do that either. These things will end up like our Army's tanks post-Afghanistan: a logistics burden that almost never gets deployed to any situation that matters. We wouldn't even send this thing to Yemen today if we had them. Let's be honest.

Can you see the Reapers being the eyes of our Latvian commitment? Tight airspace but a real mission to keep an eye on things in a pattern of life way .

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I'm not understanding how the cost could be jacked up to over $2B. Even considering lifetime costs and groundstations.

You have to wonder if it is worth it when you see articles like this:

Hamas's Cheap, Makeshift Drones Are Outsmarting Israel's High-Tech Military
The use of commercial UAVs rigged with bombs has exposed gaps in Israeli defenses
By Marissa Newman
December 18, 2023 at 9:00 PM PST

It wasn’t the eruption of rocket fire from Gaza that rattled soldiers at Israel’s southern frontier on Oct. 7. It was the unusual hum overhead that they hadn't heard before.

A fleet of drones that are available online for as little as $6,500 filled the skies above Israel’s $1 billion border fence. They were rigged to carry explosives and knock out cameras, communications systems and remote-controlled guns, setting the stage for the unprecedented massacre.

Militaries have been using drones in conflicts for more than two decades. Israel itself boasts one of the largest armies of unmanned aerial vehicles in the Middle East. Today, a new generation of cheap, commercially available systems — like the ones Hamas used in the Oct. 7 attack — is emerging, challenging some of the world’s most technologically advanced forces...

....Hamas’s use of modified commercial drones to stage attacks — a strategy also used by Ukraine in the early days of Russia’s invasion — exposed a significant vulnerability in Israel’s vaunted air and ground defenses. The tactics overwhelmed a far more advanced opponent, all on a shoestring budget....

....Israel has already upgraded its Iron Dome system — which uses interceptors to protect against incoming short range missiles — to detect large UAVs, but many Hamas drones are still able to slip through. The army is testing a laser-based system designed to intercept smaller ones and short-range rockets, although it won’t be ready for at least another year....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=x4rjnz06

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Can you see the Reapers being the eyes of our Latvian commitment? Tight airspace but a real mission to keep an eye on things in a pattern of life way .

Latvia is size of a postage stamp. You don't need MALE drones with almost 28 hr endurance to watch over the border. Also, what's the point of having a drone that won't survive the first shots in a conflict? Building any dependency on that would be a grave error.

We should have had these drones a decade ago. They were useful in Afghanistan. Instead, were going to get them in 2030 when they are basically going to be used for a talking point about having drones. Not just my opinion by the way. There's army guys who think the same:

The SkyGuardian is the apex of a lineage of remotely piloted aircraft born & bred for the War on Terror, but will arrive in RCAF hangers 20 years too late. Time will tell if it becomes a capable platform for maritime & arctic domain awareness, or an example of sunk cost fallacy.

https://twitter.com/MidOfficer/statu...NgVHdeibg&s=19

I know a bit more about airplanes than him. So I will say this is going to print to be very suboptimal for Arctic surveillance. It's the Kingfisher of drones.

By the way, the Australians cancelled their purchase after they saw non-stealth MALE UAV performance in Ukraine:

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...-cybersecurity

USAF has begun their retirement off the Reaper and will have completely retired them by 2035, two years after we take our last delivery.

https://www.slashgear.com/1281330/wh...-reaper-drone/

This is pretty close to the meme of flying yesterday's aircraft tomorrow.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I'm not understanding how the cost could be jacked up to over $2B. Even considering lifetime costs and groundstations.

We never do infrastructure renewal. So we roll it into major procurements. So this is probably something like $1B for the drones, ground stations, initial training, etc. And then $1B for hangars, runways, new command centre, etc. And $490M for the 20 yr support.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

You have to wonder if it is worth it when you see articles like this:

Hamas's Cheap, Makeshift Drones Are Outsmarting Israel's High-Tech Military
The use of commercial UAVs rigged with bombs has exposed gaps in Israeli defenses
By Marissa Newman
December 18, 2023 at 9:00 PM PST

It wasn’t the eruption of rocket fire from Gaza that rattled soldiers at Israel’s southern frontier on Oct. 7. It was the unusual hum overhead that they hadn't heard before.

A fleet of drones that are available online for as little as $6,500 filled the skies above Israel’s $1 billion border fence. They were rigged to carry explosives and knock out cameras, communications systems and remote-controlled guns, setting the stage for the unprecedented massacre.

Militaries have been using drones in conflicts for more than two decades. Israel itself boasts one of the largest armies of unmanned aerial vehicles in the Middle East. Today, a new generation of cheap, commercially available systems — like the ones Hamas used in the Oct. 7 attack — is emerging, challenging some of the world’s most technologically advanced forces...

....Hamas’s use of modified commercial drones to stage attacks — a strategy also used by Ukraine in the early days of Russia’s invasion — exposed a significant vulnerability in Israel’s vaunted air and ground defenses. The tactics overwhelmed a far more advanced opponent, all on a shoestring budget....

....Israel has already upgraded its Iron Dome system — which uses interceptors to protect against incoming short range missiles — to detect large UAVs, but many Hamas drones are still able to slip through. The army is testing a laser-based system designed to intercept smaller ones and short-range rockets, although it won’t be ready for at least another year....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=x4rjnz06

Comparing a basically modified hobby drone that can drop a grenade a few km away to a SkyGuardian that deliver Hellfire missiles thousands of kilometres away is like saying a Hot wheels car and a Ferrari are basically the same thing.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by savevp

This is a valid point, though I don't think calling for a ceasire (capitulation to Hamas) is the correct reaction. What logically follows should be demands that Israel fight a more precise war. I recognise this doesn't give Palestinian supporters in the streets quite the same emotional release. But this is also why when someone says Hamas=/=Gaza, I say your ceasefire calls do equal pro-Hamas statements. And so in the current context, 'Free Palestine' means 'Up Hamas.'



Posting those photos to justify the call for a ceasefire is doing Hamas work, I'd argue.

Where did I use the word ceasefire? Though I do think one is warranted. Subject to release of all hostages, bringing humanitarian aid and ultimately demanding an end to Hamas’ leadership.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Where did I use the word ceasefire? Though I do think one is warranted. Subject to release of all hostages, bringing humanitarian aid and ultimately demanding an end to Hamas’ leadership.

My apologies if I'd incorrectly assumed your stance here, though I see my assumption was correct as per the above. In any case, if you hadn't directly called for a ceasefire before, my earlier point is that any pro-Palestine view at this point basically equates to pro-ceasefire and thus pro-Hamas.

The question, as always, is how the bolded is reached without the destruction of Hamas, and thus the unfortuntate destruction of the civilian infrastructure they hide behind. Hamas broke the last ceasefire to start this war, what possible international pressure will persuade them to suddenly change their ways if they aren't defeated now?

It requires the suspension of reason to imagine that a ceasefire now could result in anything beyond continued aggression against Israel by their sworn enemies.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I'm not understanding how the cost could be jacked up to over $2B. Even considering lifetime costs and groundstations.

The hellfire missiles alone (Canada will purchase 219) will cost around $313 million US.

Then there is the fact that these drones need to be tailor made for Canada. The need to operate in the Arctic requires the use of satellites and aircraft antennas and communication components not previously integrated on the MQ-9s. There is also some other development work needed in order to install a Canadian-made IR sensor on the Reapers. Plus the training, certification, new hangars in Comox and Greenwood, etc, etc, etc.

It all adds up. $5B was budgeted for the project. They will use half. So there's that.

https://www.c4isrnet.com/unmanned/20...ork-in-arctic/

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

MALE UAVs like the Reapers struggle in icing conditions. So these would suck in the Arctic. That environment requires HALE UAVs like the Global Hawk. And Ukraine has shown that non-stealth UAVs are not survivable in near-peer. You don't hear much about the Bayraktars anymore.

Well, according to that CBC article, the Reaper has a state of the art anti-icing/de-icing system, and by the looks of it, Canada is addressing the satellite/communication issues related to flying this drone in northern latitudes.

I think having Reapers is better than nothing. As you said, I think Canada is moving in the right direction vis a vis their air force, with the purchase of the F-35s, A330s, P-8s, and now these drones. Having something is better than having nothing. We need to keep an eye on the arctic, and the Reapers should do the job, even if sub-optimal compared to the Global Hawk.

[Truenorth00]

No good deed goes unpunished. Hamas puts out a video (in English) thanking Canada, Australia and New Zealand banking a ceasefire and working to help isolate the "fascist Israeli government".

https://twitter.com/StewGlobal/statu...Vtu5oMXHA&s=19

Oh man. This is going to be some major own goal scoring with domestic politics.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

No good deed goes unpunished. Hamas puts out a video (in English) thanking Canada, Australia and New Zealand banking a ceasefire and working to help isolate the "fascist Israeli government".

https://twitter.com/StewGlobal/statu...Vtu5oMXHA&s=19

Oh man. This is going to be some major own goal scoring with domestic politics.

Will it, really?

In terms of domestic politics, don't skate to where the puck is right now. Skate to where the puck is going!

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Will it, really?

In terms of domestic politics, don't skate to where the puck is right now. Skate to where the puck is going!

I'm going to guess, none of the signatories from that memo foresaw or wanted actual acknowledgement by Hamas.

As for skate to where the puck is going, you'd be surprised how many immigrant groups are pro-Israel. A lot of Indians for example. This isn't going to be as helpful for the LPC as one imagines.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

As for skate to where the puck is going, you'd be surprised how many immigrant groups are pro-Israel. A lot of Indians for example.

Pro Israeli or anti-Muslim???

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

As for skate to where the puck is going, you'd be surprised how many immigrant groups are pro-Israel. A lot of Indians for example. This isn't going to be as helpful for the LPC as one imagines.

The LPC continues to walk a tightrope on this one. So far they haven't fallen.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

As for skate to where the puck is going, you'd be surprised how many immigrant groups are pro-Israel. A lot of Indians for example. This isn't going to be as helpful for the LPC as one imagines.

I know you're right but the squeaky wheel gets the oil.