VIA Rail network developments

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I should know this and I'm sure I could find this online, but I'm asking anyway. Is there a possibility the HFR will be electrified? The increased speed (attracting riders out of planes and cars) and an electric power supply would go far in improving the environment.

It's possible but would cost an extra $2 billion, so it all depends on whether or not they'd get that money.

[Mikeed]

Something to consider is that any electrification would have to support double-stacked intermodal/autorack freight trains. Even where if they are just in the areas where the VIA lines cross freight lines. That's about 23'.

It's do-able, but not cheap.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

When have they ever said that? They want the hub to bring more passengers to the airport, not to have fewer passengers at the airport. Also, there is no way somebody from Ottawa is going to spend 3 plus hours on a train to catch a flight at Pearson.

That hub isn't about Ottawa. Saving slots to London and Kingston would be very useful to them.

Originally Posted by acottawa

That is pretty much the definition of the idea phase. "Hey, lets get some renders we can show the government."

It's a little more than renders. You don't need a major architectural firm to do design if you just want renders to show the government.

But I will grant you that it's still got a ways to go. The interesting bit here is that GTAA has substantial financial room on their balance sheet to build it. They are entirely capable of financing this without outside help. And this looks like a great candidate for the new CIB as well.

Originally Posted by acottawa

Well, my perspective is that the electrification study was completed in 2010, it is now 2018 and not one meter of track has been electrified. Even Wynne's spending spree in the last year of the mandate got no electrification underway.

Like i said, electrification is pointless without the enabling works. I'd argue the enabling works are far more important than electrification itself. That's a matter of comparing NPV of running diesel loco pulled vs. EMUs, considering lifecycle costs when the GO Trains are up for fleet renewal. As far as the network is concerned those enabling works are far more relevant. And they've been going quite well.

Originally Posted by acottawa

As far as I know none of those grade separations have been on track that could be conceivably used for any high speed rail.

I'd argue that Georgetown South and Davenport Diamond are pretty damn important to any future HSR towards the airport and Southwestern Ontario. Ditto, the Union Station Rail Corridor Renewal and USRC East to have the capacity to have any hourly intercity service into downtown Toronto.

I am really surprised that you don't see any of this as a precusor to actually building regular intercity service.

Originally Posted by acottawa

The Peterborough plan breaks every rule of getting infrastructure actually built. It inconveniences a half dozen ridings for the benefit of one riding and a few small villages along highway 7. It cannot be separated into more manageable phases. It offers no interim benefit while construction is underway. Citytech’s proposal addresses these roadblocks.

Half a dozen very sparsely populated ridings will be inconvenienced to benefit over a dozen ridings (at least) in the three metros concerned. I'd argue that is eminently sellable.

Originally Posted by acottawa

In addition, even if political support is received, Via’s cost and time estimates are way off from other rail projects, so there is an extremely high likelihood that even if it gets political approval it would be stillborn when the tenders come back (or maybe Via went to the Joseph Potvin Academy of Cost Estimation).

Until we know more, we can't be sure of the fidelity of the estimate. I'd like to think that VIA's planner are a bit more experienced and competent than Joseph Potvin. But sure, until their studies become public or we see more on a future RFP, it's hard to tell how much they are off. I expect it to rise. But I don't think they are significantly off either. I recall one of the last HSR studies quoted $12 billion for Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal. If they are using an existing corridor, with no grade separation for most of it, $4 billion could be feasible. I would guess closer to $5-6 billion. But I don't think we'll get some crazy estimate like double the cost when it's more fully studied.

Originally Posted by acottawa

This proposal has been kicking around for years. The Tories have shown no interest, the Liberals have been ragging the puck for almost 4 years. You’re of the belief that Via passengers in Ottawa are a politically or economically important group. I believe that is a mistaken assumption.

The Tories are practically allergic to any infrastructure that benefits cities, especially if it inconveniences rural blue ridings. The political calculus is very different for the Liberals.

I would bet money the reason it's taken this long to get going is because they've wanted the CIB to launch it as a hallmark project, and unfortunately the CIB has been slow to get off the ground. If it isn't in the next budget, I'll buy your argument.

[lrt's friend]

When have they ever said that? They want the hub to bring more passengers to the airport, not to have fewer passengers at the airport. Also, there is no way somebody from Ottawa is going to spend 3 plus hours on a train to catch a flight at Pearson.

On my trip to Copenhagen, in hindsight I would have taken VIA to Toronto (even at 4+ hours) compared to the mess that was the airline trip to get to Pearson that ended up having me delayed for a day and spending most of the night trying to get compensation for the delay. It probably took me 2 or 3 days to fully recover from all the nonsense that was involved with the delay and that was supposed to be my vacation.


At 3 hours, you are getting close to competitive with the airline trip to Pearson considering all the check in and security hassles.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

On my trip to Copenhagen, in hindsight I would have taken VIA to Toronto (even at 4+ hours) compared to the mess that was the airline trip to get to Pearson that ended up having me delayed for a day and spending most of the night trying to get compensation for the delay. It probably took me 2 or 3 days to fully recover from all the nonsense that was involved with the delay and that was supposed to be my vacation.


At 3 hours, you are getting close to competitive with the airline trip to Pearson considering all the check in and security hassles.

Normally the check in and security would be done in Ottawa, in Toronto you just walk to the gate. If weather conditions were cancelling flights out of Ottawa there is a good chance trains would be delayed as well.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That hub isn't about Ottawa. Saving slots to London and Kingston would be very useful to them.





It's a little more than renders. You don't need a major architectural firm to do design if you just want renders to show the government.

But I will grant you that it's still got a ways to go. The interesting bit here is that GTAA has substantial financial room on their balance sheet to build it. They are entirely capable of financing this without outside help. And this looks like a great candidate for the new CIB as well.



Like i said, electrification is pointless without the enabling works. I'd argue the enabling works are far more important than electrification itself. That's a matter of comparing NPV of running diesel loco pulled vs. EMUs, considering lifecycle costs when the GO Trains are up for fleet renewal. As far as the network is concerned those enabling works are far more relevant. And they've been going quite well.



I'd argue that Georgetown South and Davenport Diamond are pretty damn important to any future HSR towards the airport and Southwestern Ontario. Ditto, the Union Station Rail Corridor Renewal and USRC East to have the capacity to have any hourly intercity service into downtown Toronto.

I am really surprised that you don't see any of this as a precusor to actually building regular intercity service.



Half a dozen very sparsely populated ridings will be inconvenienced to benefit over a dozen ridings (at least) in the three metros concerned. I'd argue that is eminently sellable.



Until we know more, we can't be sure of the fidelity of the estimate. I'd like to think that VIA's planner are a bit more experienced and competent than Joseph Potvin. But sure, until their studies become public or we see more on a future RFP, it's hard to tell how much they are off. I expect it to rise. But I don't think they are significantly off either. I recall one of the last HSR studies quoted $12 billion for Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal. If they are using an existing corridor, with no grade separation for most of it, $4 billion could be feasible. I would guess closer to $5-6 billion. But I don't think we'll get some crazy estimate like double the cost when it's more fully studied.




The Tories are practically allergic to any infrastructure that benefits cities, especially if it inconveniences rural blue ridings. The political calculus is very different for the Liberals.

I would bet money the reason it's taken this long to get going is because they've wanted the CIB to launch it as a hallmark project, and unfortunately the CIB has been slow to get off the ground. If it isn't in the next budget, I'll buy your argument.

Oh, you think the SW high speed rail is going to happen. I guess anything is possible, but even the provincial Liberals stopped talking about that.

Nobody in Toronto or Montreal cares about Via Rail, they would rather money be spent on commuter services. Whereas in the small cities along the lakeshore it is an important service and MPs will know it.

So your theory is the Liberals really want to build the Peterborough line but they have been holding back because they want really complicated financing? Again, anything is possible.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Normally the check in and security would be done in Ottawa, in Toronto you just walk to the gate. If weather conditions were cancelling flights out of Ottawa there is a good chance trains would be delayed as well.

Nope, not weather conditions. There were problems at Pearson. Dozens if not hundreds of flights were delayed or cancelled.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Oh, you think the SW high speed rail is going to happen. I guess anything is possible, but even the provincial Liberals stopped talking about that.

Nobody in Toronto or Montreal cares about Via Rail, they would rather money be spent on commuter services. Whereas in the small cities along the lakeshore it is an important service and MPs will know it.

So your theory is the Liberals really want to build the Peterborough line but they have been holding back because they want really complicated financing? Again, anything is possible.

They have been holding back until the proper studies are completed. This is no different than any urban transit project.

As long as CN is in control of the Lakeshore route, there is zero possibility of improving travel times.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

They have been holding back until the proper studies are completed. This is no different than any urban transit project.

As long as CN is in control of the Lakeshore route, there is zero possibility of improving travel times.

CN is a public company. They have a price, I would like to know what it is.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

They have been holding back until the proper studies are completed. This is no different than any urban transit project.

As long as CN is in control of the Lakeshore route, there is zero possibility of improving travel times.

They haven’t done any proper studies.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Nope, not weather conditions. There were problems at Pearson. Dozens if not hundreds of flights were delayed or cancelled.

How would a train have helped your situation? You would have spent 4 hours on a train and discovered Pearson was a gong show.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Normally the check in and security would be done in Ottawa, in Toronto you just walk to the gate. If weather conditions were cancelling flights out of Ottawa there is a good chance trains would be delayed as well.

Trains are much less vulnerable to winter weather disruptions than airplanes are. In fact, trains are the most snow-resilient form of transportation we have. I've been on VIA trains that keep running at full speed in literal blizzards.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by acottawa

CN is a public company. They have a price, I would like to know what it is.

Exactly. All these people acting like CN & CP would just sit there and automatically reject any proposal.. it doesn't work like that. They're publically traded companies, if the price is right, they have to say yes, because their shareholders will make them. If the markets are satisified with $500M for their co-operation, great! If it's $5B, then that's a problem obviously.

[ghYHZ]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Trains are much less vulnerable to winter weather disruptions than airplanes are. In fact, trains are the most snow-resilient form of transportation we have. I've been on VIA trains that keep running at full speed in literal blizzards.

Yes…one of my best memories of rail travel. A snowstorm had started. Pearson was experiencing major delays but I was able to get a Business Class seat on #66 to Montreal that afternoon. Very enjoyable to just sit back with a pre-dinner drink as we sped through Pickering > Oshawa at 150+…..easily passing everything at a near standstill over on the parallel 401. And I remember we were pretty well ontime into Dorval.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by ghYHZ

Yes…one of my best memories of rail travel. A snowstorm had started. Pearson was experiencing major delays but I was able to get a Business Class seat on #66 to Montreal that afternoon. Very enjoyable to just sit back with a pre-dinner drink as we sped through Pickering > Oshawa at 150+…..easily passing everything at a near standstill over on the parallel 401. And I remember we were pretty well ontime into Dorval.

I had a similar experience. I took VIA Business Class to Toronto when I had to attend a meeting in Guelph. It was a blizzard and I remember coming into Toronto relaxed, whereas another person white knuckled from Ottawa on the 401. It was the wisest decision I ever made and it cost my office nothing extra, when I worked out the mileage charge, meal allowance and the need of a hotel anyways.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How would a train have helped your situation? You would have spent 4 hours on a train and discovered Pearson was a gong show.

The gong show was on flight connections coming into Pearson. Overseas flights departed more or less on time. Based on the warning I had, a VIA train would have got me to Toronto in time for my overseas flight. I remember thinking about it that day as the flight cancellations and delays mounted.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Whereas in the small cities along the lakeshore it is an important service and MPs will know it.

No one is saying the Lakeshore service will be eliminated. Kingston will most likely see a reduction in service, but all the other cities will likely see the same or better service (in some cases much better). Here is a list of the number of weekday trains to Toronto from various cities:

Brockville	7

Gananoque	1

Kingston	17

Napanee		1

Belleville	9

Trenton Jct.	2

Cobourg		6

Port Hope	1

Oshawa		14

Guildwood	5

As discussed in another thread, many of the trains to Kingston are very close together, so don't really count anyway. Without having to worry about keeping trains fast to/from Ottawa and Montreal, many of those small cities could see an increase in the number of trains even if the total number of trains from Kingston is reduced.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Exactly. All these people acting like CN & CP would just sit there and automatically reject any proposal.. it doesn't work like that. They're publically traded companies, if the price is right, they have to say yes, because their shareholders will make them. If the markets are satisified with $500M for their co-operation, great! If it's $5B, then that's a problem obviously.

Would that even be a down payment?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

No one is saying the Lakeshore service will be eliminated. Kingston will most likely see a reduction in service, but all the other cities will likely see the same or better service (in some cases much better). Here is a list of the number of weekday trains to Toronto from various cities:

Brockville	7

Gananoque	1

Kingston	17

Napanee		1

Belleville	9

Trenton Jct.	2

Cobourg		6

Port Hope	1

Oshawa		14

Guildwood	5

As discussed in another thread, many of the trains to Kingston are very close together, so don't really count anyway. Without having to worry about keeping trains fast to/from Ottawa and Montreal, many of those small cities could see an increase in the number of trains even if the total number of trains from Kingston is reduced.

Do you think they will see it as an improvement? If they stopped routing mainline trains through Ottawa and implemented a Budd car service (or whatever they’re planning) would you be in favour of it?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Would that even be a down payment?

Why would you expect they would ask some exorbitant price? It isn’t like empty land on the side of their track is making them any money.