The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

Lot of established interests in the ICE vehicle supply chain that don't want EV's to happen for obvious reasons.

This is it.

Ford dealers are marking up F150 Lightnings by tens of thousands of dollars. EV demand is off the charts.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

This is it.

Ford dealers are marking up F150 Lightnings by tens of thousands of dollars. EV demand is off the charts.

Dealerships - who ultimately decide what our overall vehicle fleet looks like - make most of their money off service visits and therefore have every incentive to block EV sales.

If they can’t make money from future oil changes, transmission repairs, muffler and exhaust repairs, etc. then they’ll just make up the difference by marking up the sale price of EVs.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Dealerships - who ultimately decide what our overall vehicle fleet looks like - make most of their money off service visits and therefore have every incentive to block EV sales.

If they can’t make money from future oil changes, transmission repairs, muffler and exhaust repairs, etc. then they’ll just make up the difference by marking up the sale price of EVs.

They are the big OEMs own worst enemy, sadly. The sooner they are gone, the better.

Another win for Tesla.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

They are the big OEMs own worst enemy, sadly. The sooner they are gone, the better.

Another win for Tesla.

I honestly don't see Tesla being a car maker for much longer, kinda the same path as IBM and PCs. There is margin to be made now, but not over the long term.

[Truenorth00]

Legacy OEMs keep saying price parity in 2030. Meanwhile the folks looking at actual battery supply chains say recent inflation has only slipped their forecast for parity by 2 years from 2024 to 2026.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/increase...t-ev-progress/

I have a feeling there are going to be a lot of auto execs with that Pikachu look on their face in 2026.

[Truenorth00]

I'm not sure how any of the above is news. The road mix will lag the sales mix.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm not sure how any of the above is news. The road mix will lag the sales mix.

Traditional ICE manufacturer CEOs don't like EVs. More at 11!

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Traditional ICE manufacturer CEOs don't like EVs. More at 11!

It's like asking buggy makers in 1905 how quickly they think the transition to cars will go. Not just the legacy OEM CEOs though. Boomer auto journalists, dyed in the wool gearheads, are just as biased. They can't imagine anything else.

Booth (Motor Mouth) first started out arguing that nothing but pure ICE will do. Then when it became obvious that people might actually care about this whole climate thing, came the pivot to hybrids. He's spent the better part of a decade arguing that BEVs are basically a fad and that the only way to cut emissions is hybrids. Meanwhile, EV sales keep growing exponentially. And hybrids have failed to gain traction since BEVs took off. So now, we're stuck getting moralizing pieces about the evils of BEVs. A lot of which is pretty much ignorant of how cost curves and technological substitution works.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm not sure how any of the above is news. The road mix will lag the sales mix.

Looking at the numbers themselves (slower EV adoption rates than initially anticipated and battery supply chain shortages), I'm just not subscribing to the doom and gloom of traditional manufacturers. It seems more of a subjective and emotion based desire rather than fact and evidence based projection.

Elon Musk says a lithium shortage is holding back Tesla. His solution? Building a lithium refinery in Texas
BY SEAN O'KANE AND BLOOMBERG
October 19, 2022 at 4:50 PM PDT

Tesla is moving forward with plans to build a lithium refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast in a bid to gain more control over the supply chain for electric vehicle batteries.

Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk confirmed the move Wednesday on a conference call in answer to an analyst’s question on progress developing the company’s new 4680 battery cell technology.

The Austin, Texas-based company has been weighing the project for months, as Bloomberg News previously reported, but had been considering at least one other site in Louisiana. The company has told state regulators it plans to build a battery-grade lithium hydroxide refining facility near Corpus Christi that would process raw ore material into something more production-ready.

Musk called lithium prices “crazy expensive” and has repeatedly encouraged entrepreneurs to start refining lithium as a way to ease supply bottlenecks of the key material used in lithium-ion batteries.

https://fortune.com/2022/10/19/elon-...nery-in-texas/

[goodgrowth]

I think the main problem with a lot of legacy auto companies like Toyota is that they never had to think, operate and survive as an EV-only company. So their foot is barely half in the door as opposed to all in like Tesla. Toyota has never really had to figure out how to make EV's profitable at scale because it isn't their core business.

And I'm not sure it's as easy as just deciding to wake up one day and deciding to switch over to being an viable EV company either.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

I think the main problem with a lot of legacy auto companies like Toyota is that they never had to think, operate and survive as an EV-only company. So their foot is barely half in the door as opposed to all in like Tesla. Toyota has never really had to figure out how to make EV's profitable at scale because it isn't their core business.

And I'm not sure it's as easy as just deciding to wake up one day and deciding to switch over to being an viable EV company either.

I don't disagree that a lot of legacy companies are going to struggle putting out multiple viable EV products. I would not be surprised if a lot of the current generation EVs made by legacy automakers will be obsolete compared to new EVs coming out in the next 5 years. It's why I would not buy a new EV at this time unless it were a Tesla. I'd lease.

At the same time, I don't see how it's going to result in their death knell either. The aforementioned points should provide them with enough time to figure out the issues, get their supply chain in order, and scale up appropriately.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

And I'm not sure it's as easy as just deciding to wake up one day and deciding to switch over to being an viable EV company either.

Many legacy OEMs and their fans really thought it would be that easy. Remember all the talk a few years back of, "Just you wait. When they really start competing, Tesla will be finished." And now as Tesla eats their entry level luxury business, they are finding out, it's not that easy.

The best interview I ever saw about Tesla was Calacanis' interview with JB Straubel where he discussed that even before scaling Tesla they had mapped down a bunch of components down to the commodities needed and the mines they come from. No legacy OEM thinks like that.

• Video Link

[Truenorth00]

What proportion do hybrids represent of total US and total global sales?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What proportion do hybrids represent of total US and total global sales?

As the article states, a larger share than battery electric vehicles.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

As the article states, a larger share than battery electric vehicles.

Like I said, a handful relative to all the ICE vehicles they sell.

When your alternative to BEVs isn't catching on, you have to bitch and whine. And get involved in dumbass shit like this:

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...emission-rules

They should be worrying more about companies like BYD eating their sales in China (and eventually elsewhere). And less about how many test rides it will take Boomer auto journalists to whine about hybrids not being popular.

[Acajack]

Quite surprised at all the concern for poor manufacturers and dealers. Most will adjust to the new rules and buyer preferences, and those who won't will struggle. That's business. C'est la vie.

As I've said many times, charging capacity should be what we are thinking about: both in terms of public charging stations and also the ability of our electrical grid to support increased demand as more people switch to EVs.

One of the big advantages of ICE vehicles is ample gas supply and easy access, but this highly efficient network that never leaves us dry has been built up over a century.

I don't believe most jurisdictions are going to be ready for even 10% of vehicles on the road (and looking to get powered up regularly) being EVs a few years down the line.

(Though maybe feeling a bit better about Quebec in this respect.)

[1overcosc]

I find that a lot of government sponsored charger network programs make a lot of dumb choices about where to put chargers that don't consider the daily reality of an EV driver. Like Wynne's program to put chargers at McDonalds, for example.

My hope is that EVs profilerate the invisible hand of the market will fix things and we'll see much smarter siting for chargers.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I find that a lot of government sponsored charger network programs make a lot of dumb choices about where to put chargers that don't consider the daily reality of an EV driver. Like Wynne's program to put chargers at McDonalds, for example.

Depends what kind of chargers. Fast food places aren't the worst place for a fast charger. 15-20 mins and you have a meal and a charge. But I would prefer that places like coffee shops and fast food places provide more than just a parking spot for the chargers. Ideally, they'd install their own.

My preferred place is grocery stores. Everybody does groceries. And a 150 kW charger would make sure that most people get their weekly commuting charge in a single 25 min grocery run.

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

My hope is that EVs profilerate the invisible hand of the market will fix things and we'll see much smarter siting for chargers.

There utilities are getting into charging. For example, IV Charging in Ontario and The Electric Circuit in Quebec. They are much better at filling gaps and forging partnerships and can take a more holistic approach to network development.

[travis3000]

I still love my Tesla. Moving forward it will only be electric for me. Ive had my car for 18+ months , put 35K on it and my range hasn't budged. Still a full charge gives me the same amount as when I bought it. Even in winter with the winter tires and cold Im still getting 75% of projected range which is more than enough.

I will keep my Tesla for the time being, as its a reliable low maintenance car with great range and is super fast. I really enjoy driving it. But I can imagine in a couple years I will trade it in for something else. I am hoping there are more options by then from other companies and I would still be open to Tesla. Basically whoever offers the best combo of range/speed/options.

My car is paid for now , so the monthly cost to run this vehicle is around $175/month which includes charging ($35) and insurance ($140).

[lio45]

Originally Posted by travis3000

I still love my Tesla. Moving forward it will only be electric for me.

Everyone I've known with electric vehicles says the same.

(I would imagine that if you've had a Ford Model T for a couple years, you're not ever going back to having a horse as your mode of transportation. Same idea...)

Strangely, it's probably part of why I'm not so sure about getting an EV right now. I've always been a car enthusiast, I am afraid I wouldn't be able to go back to owning ICE vehicles.