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Originally Posted by the urban politician
^ Call me the pessimist, but I highly doubt what you're saying.
Chicago getting Amazon is quite unlikely, and I don't think that is playing a role here regardless. There are indicators that the market here is a tad overbuilt, and I think they are playing a wait and see approach. They are in no rush
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The current softness in the market was expected and has been discussed for a while, so that doesn’t explain the sudden *delay* in their announcement, which is what we’re trying to explain. Some here have hypothesized that competition from all the other proposals is holding them off but, again, they probably expected that from the beginning, so it doesn’t explain the delay.
Given the amount of time it’ll take to build, and the size of whatever will be built, it’s the long term fundamentals of the market that are driving their decisions. And nothing about those fundamentals has worsened, IMO. To the contrary, all news has been pretty positive. And a well-recognized aspect of real estate development is that improved expectations of future expected prices actually, somewhat counterintuitively, increases the incentives to delay a project (on top of the delay caused by re-designing the plans). That’s why I kinda think it’s a little bittersweet when these amazing parcels get developed; it suggests their growth expectations aren’t so high.
Amazon was just a silly example, but the fact that Chicago has even been discussed as a contender says something. And we might all get a surprise. The media caught on to the fact that an Amazon lobbyist recently registered in Atlanta, suggesting they’re the front runners. But, as usual when it comes to underestimating Chicago, they all failed to notice the same lobbyist registered in Chicago too.