Hamilton Population 2020?

[thistleclub]

Via Hamilton EcDev:

2021 Census - Population & Dwellings By Ward

Ward / Pop'n / Pop'n Change vs 2016 / Occupied Dwellings / Occupied Dwellings vs 2016

01 : 31,770 / 6.4% / 14,665 / 7.7%
02 : 37,075 / 10.3% / 19,555 / 7.0%
03 : 43,200 / 4.8% / 18,650 / 5.1%
04 : 39,330 / 1.9% /16,895 / 1.2%
05 : 43,655 / 4.3% / 18,575 / 3.5%
06 : 38,965 / 0.8% / 14,540 / -0.1%
07 : 48,565 / 2.3% / 18,880 / 2.1%
08 : 36,120 / 4.7% / 13,085 / 2.8%
09 : 35,980 / 25.1% / 11,265 / 22.7%
10 : 39,210 / 5.4% / 14,205 / 6.2%
11 : 28,225 / 11.0% / 9,900 / 7.8%
12 : 45,720 / 7.4% / 15,650 / 8.7%
13 : 35,325 / -0.1% / 14,140 / 0.0%
14 : 34,495 / 0.8% / 11,880 / 0.9%
15 : 31,725 / 14.6% / 10,925 / 15.0%

2021 Census - Population & Dwellings By Community

Ward / Pop'n / Pop'n Change vs 2016 / Occupied Dwellings / Occupied Dwellings vs 2016

Ancaster : 43,485 / 7.2% / 14,800 / 8.8%
Dundas : 24,155 / -0.5% / 9,990 / 0.7%
Flamborough : 46,865 / 9.9% / 16,405 / 9.4%
Glanbrook : 35,075 / 17.5% / 11,870 / 12.4%
Hamilton: 343, 205 / 4.0% / 142,150 / 3.4%
Lower Hamilton: 186,920 / 5.7% / 84,350 / 5.0%
Upper Hamilton: 156,290 / 2.0% / 57,800 / 1.1%
Stoney Creek : 76,570 / 10.2% / 27,595 / 10.3%

Total: 569,355 / 6.0% / 222,805 / 5.3%

[thistleclub]

As of the 2021 census, Hamilton’s lower city population had almost returned to 2001 levels. If the same census-over-census population growth occurs, its 2026 population will approximate 1981 levels. Doubling that population growth would restore the lower city to its early-’70s density.

[Innsertnamehere]

Given the construction boom happening, my bet is early 70’s.

[ScreamingViking]

A long read, but the story includes several personal experiences.

There are tables detailing intra-provincial migration to Hamilton in the news story. 2021 figures should be interesting when available. And especially what the data will show for 2026 and 2031, given all the new projects being built, planned or proposed and the city's stance on urban boundary growth, never mind the effects of the LRT which will start to kick in (in a bigger way) later this decade.


Exodus from Toronto suburbs is driving growth in Hamilton suburbs
A new study looks at migration trends to Hamilton from across Ontario, and finds many are settling in the suburbs

Steve Buist
The Hamilton Spectator
Thu., July 7, 2022

https://www.thespec.com/business/rea...on-trends.html
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%...on-trends.html





...

Everyone, it seems, knows someone who knows someone who has moved to Hamilton in recent years.

The common perception is that the influx has been driven by migrants from the City of Toronto who want to trade one inner city urban environment for a less expensive one in the heart of lower Hamilton.

And yes, that has been happening, according to census data.

But a new study shows that the great migration to Hamilton is being driven more by an exodus from the suburban parts of the Greater Toronto Area to the suburban communities of the amalgamated city — Stoney Creek, Glanbrook, Ancaster and Waterdown.

Three times as many people from Halton and Peel regions moved to Hamilton between 2011 and 2016 than from Toronto.

And the trend appears to be growing stronger.

When comparing census data from 2006 to 2016, the number of people moving to Hamilton from the other parts of the 905 area code jumped by 55 per cent.

Migration from Toronto to Hamilton during the same time only increased by 6 per cent.

From 2006 to 2016, the number of migrants from Oakville and Mississauga nearly doubled, and those from Milton nearly tripled.

...

The report shows Hamilton, particularly its outer suburban ring, is “increasingly part of the GTA and the Toronto orbit,” said Brian Doucet, the study’s lead author and a professor in the University of Waterloo’s School of Planning.

“This is not a new phenomenon,” Doucet said. “It’s a trend that’s been going on for some time.”

Using customized data sets from the 2006 and 2016 censuses, Doucet looked at migration trends to Hamilton from across Ontario — the cities and towns people left and the specific census tracts, or neighbourhoods, where they settled in Hamilton.

Census tracts are the divisions used by Statistics Canada to break cities into smaller areas. There are about 140 census tracts in the amalgamated city of Hamilton.

Nearly half of the people who moved to Hamilton from the GTA between 2011 and 2016 settled in the four outer suburban ring communities of Stoney Creek, Glanbrook, Ancaster and Flamborough, according to the study.

Two out of three people who migrated from Halton landed in one of those four communities.

“This is a multidimensional story, but one that is increasingly of Hamilton’s suburbs becoming more and more connected to the GTA as one of North America’s largest urban regions sprawls further outward,” the report states.

Part of the phenomenon is being driven by housing costs — ownership and rent — which decrease as one moves further from Toronto.

...

At a neighbourhood level, nine of the top 10 census tracts with the highest number of migrants from elsewhere in Ontario between 2011 and 2016 are located in the suburban communities of Stoney Creek, Glanbrook, Ancaster and Flamborough. The other census tract was located near downtown Hamilton, very close to the GO station on James Street North.

...

“Outsiders are driving change in the suburbs. Literally,” states Richard Harris in one of the study’s chapters.

Harris is a professor emeritus in McMaster’s School of Earth, Environment and Society.

He wonders if those people migrating to the suburban parts of Hamilton feel any attachment to the old City of Hamilton.

“The statistics show a movement from the GTA to Hamilton but, in the suburbs at any rate, it is not in any meaningful sense about Hamilton,” Harris states in the study.

“New suburban subdivisions in Dundas, Ancaster, or Flamborough are indistinguishable from those in neighbouring Halton region,” Harris adds. “Indeed, it is likely that new suburban residents prefer to keep the City of Hamilton, as a place and as a symbol, at a distance.”

...

One of the things that stood out for Doucet was the low number of people who have migrated to the Hamilton Mountain in recent years.

Hamilton Mountain is home to about a third of the amalgamated city’s population but only 17 per cent of the 45,600 people who moved to the city from across Ontario between 2011 and 2016 ended up on the Mountain.

“There’s not a lot of undeveloped land on the Mountain but there’s a lot of underutilized land,” Doucet said, “if you think of strip malls or big parking lots.”

The study also shows that the “residential leapfrogging” doesn’t just stop at Hamilton’s borders.

The city has seen a net loss in population to some other nearby communities, likely because of increases to the cost of housing.

Nearly 8,000 people from Hamilton moved to the St. Catharines-Niagara area between 2016 and 2020 compared to less than 5,000 people from that area who moved to Hamilton. The city had a net loss of 2,750 people to Brantford during that time, and nearly 900 people lost to the Kitchener-Waterloo area.

...

[catcher_of_cats]

Reporting like this pisses me off. Its exceptionally lazy. The idea that "hey, lets use statistics that is between 6-11 years old" to represent what is happening now when the current statistics have been released earlier this year is mind boggling.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by catcher_of_cats

Reporting like this pisses me off. Its exceptionally lazy. The idea that "hey, lets use statistics that is between 6-11 years old" to represent what is happening now when the current statistics have been released earlier this year is mind boggling.

They're reporting on an academic study; it's going to seem lazy by comparison.

2021 migration data from the Census is due for release this fall. So far it's been population, age, gender, and some dwelling data. Much more to come.

Planned 2021 Census release schedule

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

As of the 2021 census, Hamilton’s lower city population had almost returned to 2001 levels. If the same census-over-census population growth occurs, its 2026 population will approximate 1981 levels. Doubling that population growth would restore the lower city to its early-’70s density.

That blows my mind. No wonder Barton St retail and other areas throughout the lower city fell on such hard times: it's lost a calamitous amount of people.

[SteelTown]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

July 1, 2022 CMA's (2021)


St. John's 219,119 (214,267)

Halifax 480,582 (459,869)

Moncton 171,608 (162,824)

Québec 848,776 (836,615)

Sherbrooke 231,055 (227,448)

Montréal 4,378,796 (4,340,642)

Ottawa 1,498,610 (1,474,077)

Kingston 180,070 (176,738)

Toronto 6,685,621 (6,547,381)

Hamilton 821,839 (811,396)

St. Catharines 450,501 (441,452)

Kitchener 622,497 (599,816)

Guelph 172,400 (169,363)

London 574,238 (557,394)

Windsor 359,672 (351,213)

Barrie 228,979 (221,954)

Winnipeg 871,778 (858,848)

Regina 268,804 (264,375)

Saskatoon 347,536 (339,870)

Lethbridge 133,064 (130,088)

Calgary 1,608,342 (1,558,588)

Edmonton 1,516,719 ( 1,480,159)

Kelowna 235,473 (229,003)

Abbotsford 208,961 (205,834)

Vancouver 2,842,730 (2,764,932)

Victoria 423,136 (413,859)

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...ostcount=18667

[TheHonestMaple]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

That blows my mind. No wonder Barton St retail and other areas throughout the lower city fell on such hard times: it's lost a calamitous amount of people.

Yep. So excited to see the area around Gore Park come back to life once all these condos are finished.

[johnnyhamont]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...ostcount=18667

Interesting but not surprising to see Kitchener growing at more than double the rate of Hamilton+Burlington+Grimsby combined. More surprising to see London also growing at double the rate of Hamilton, and St Catharines keeping up with Hamilton.

[Innsertnamehere]

The City of Hamilton grew by almost 10,000 people - a record number for the last few decades and roughly triple the rate the city was averaging prior to 2016. The city also likely passed 600,000 now, probably in October or November as these estimates are as of July 1.

Interestingly, people are leaving for other provinces more than people from other provinces are moving here, but Hamilton remains a significant net positive place for people to move from elsewhere in the province. I suspect most of these people are coming from Toronto, just as I did several years ago. Immigration also remains a significant population driver, which we can see through things like the increasing south-asian population in Stoney Creek.

[SteelTown]

Originally Posted by johnnyhamont

Interesting but not surprising to see Kitchener growing at more than double the rate of Hamilton+Burlington+Grimsby combined. More surprising to see London also growing at double the rate of Hamilton, and St Catharines keeping up with Hamilton.

Burlington's growth is dead thanks to Burlington's anti-highrise stance and basically being landlocked.

[Innsertnamehere]

Burlington and Grimsby populations are basically entirely flat as both have run out of subdivision land, and as Steeltown already mentioned, Burlington is extremely anti-development.

Some of Hamilton's growth is being lost by Haldimand County not being part of the CMA, I suspect, as there has been a lot of suburban growth in Caledonia over the last few years which while very much focused on Hamilton-bound commuters is not included in the CMA's growth.

Regardless, Kitchener and London are definitely growing quicker. This has been a long standing trend which shouldn't surprise anyone.

[TheHonestMaple]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Burlington and Grimsby populations are basically entirely flat as both have run out of subdivision land, and as Steeltown already mentioned, Burlington is extremely anti-development.

Some of Hamilton's growth is being lost by Haldimand County not being part of the CMA, I suspect, as there has been a lot of suburban growth in Caledonia over the last few years which while very much focused on Hamilton-bound commuters is not included in the CMA's growth.

Regardless, Kitchener and London are definitely growing quicker. This has been a long standing trend which shouldn't surprise anyone.

Can't really blame Burlington's position when you look at their neighbour Oakville.

[ScreamingViking]

https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/popu...5-0d93f4bb9f45

The Ministry of Finance has updated population projections to 2051. The Census Division that aligns with Hamilton is now projected to have more than 903,000 people.

The city has been in a tizzy thinking about where to put the 820,000 from the older forecast. So what's another 83,000?

IF this comes to pass, the CMA will have well over a million people, even if Burlington doesn't grow very much, though Halton is projected to grow to nearly a million people itself (probably mostly in Milton, and Oakville still has land to develop; Burlington will largely need to rely on intensification and an acceptance of it)

Note: MOF's 2023 estimate for the city is above 615,000... and we all know projections have been wrong in the past, but still, I think we can expect a big wave of growth given the trends in the region. Waterloo is forecast to be 1.077 million, Middlesex (London) 883,000. There's going to be a need for a lot of infrastructure improvement in Ontario's southwest, particularly in transportation and water/sewers.

[Innsertnamehere]

going to need a lot more than a few 30-storey towers and some ADUs to accommodate that, unlike what council seems to think.

We are also going to need a LOT more infrastructure, a LOT faster than we are currently planning for. Forget the Hamilton LRT. We need to be thinking about a Hamilton metro.

[ScreamingViking]

Nah, we just need more buses!

And maybe they should float, because if climate change brings more precipitation, a lot of that water will end up in the streets.

QEW supplemented by a Queen Elizabeth Tunnel (QET) and one for the 403.

[TheRitsman]

I'm planning to meet with some folks who can provide assistance on he upcoming mid-rise zoning by-law changes. Public consultations are coming this winter and I welcome everyone to comment to the city that the by-laws should be a bit more ambitious and look to Toronto for a general failing of their mid-rise zoning that ours essentially copies.

I was to see fewer restrictions on lot size, angular planes, amenity requirements, and an expanded area where the midrise zoning is allowed. I will be building a recommendation document, and will be trying to work with More Neighbours Hamilton and a new local Strong Towns contingent. Hit me up on my socials to get involved or connect over these items.

[ScreamingViking]

For further comparison, Ontario's 2051 forecast population under low-growth, reference (mid-rate), and high-growth scenarios is 19.2 million, 22.1 million, and 25.2 million, respectively. Current estimate is 15.6 million.

Most of that growth is projected to be in southern Ontario -- shocking, I know -- especially the GTA (7.4 to 10.4 million) and Central regions (3.5 to 5.1 million); Central includes places like Niagara, Hamilton, Waterloo, Wellington County (Guelph), Simcoe Region (Barrie), and municipalities east and northeast of Durham Region in the GTA.

The sub-provincial figures are all based on the reference-scenario.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by TheRitsman

I'm planning to meet with some folks who can provide assistance on he upcoming mid-rise zoning by-law changes. Public consultations are coming this winter and I welcome everyone to comment to the city that the by-laws should be a bit more ambitious and look to Toronto for a general failing of their mid-rise zoning that ours essentially copies.

I was to see fewer restrictions on lot size, angular planes, amenity requirements, and an expanded area where the midrise zoning is allowed. I will be building a recommendation document, and will be trying to work with More Neighbours Hamilton and a new local Strong Towns contingent. Hit me up on my socials to get involved or connect over these items.

We definitely need more mid-rise buildings all across the city - including smaller developments on small lots and the larger ones that span entire blocks. Many people will still be afraid of the latter, but if zoned in appropriate places the resistance will be lower.

I thought the Nodes and Corridors approach covered all that? Has the city not followed its own major planning study? I have only given a passing read to summary documents, so I would have missed the finer details.