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Originally Posted by lrt's friend
The track is grade separated but the separation was created years ago for what was a former signal track freight line. Nothing was planned for urban transit service when this was done. The problem is the number of bridges (several) needing major modification or replacement as well as the Dow's Lake tunnel and the cut to the north of that, which will require major blasting through bedrock. The original plan was going to require a 3 year closure in order to address the major modifications to the right of way but that was scrapped because of local Liberal/Conservative political dynamics. The city now figures it can apply a cheap solution, which does not address the problems with the right of way. The city has double tracked about the only places they could without major modification but single track sections remain long and this has slowed down trains because they now have to wait for signals. The second phase is going to be worse because of potential complicated train movements if service is extended to the airport and there is yet another single track bridge at a critical point on the line where the most trains need to interact for Phase 2. It is just a bad plan and the likelihood of even slower trains and less frequent service in the future is high because of the constraints of the right of way. This can only be resolved by going to the expense of replacing some of the bridges so that more double tracking can take place. However, that has not been put into the Phase 2 budget.
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It will be quite something in 8 years to see the contrast between Ottawa's two rail routes. On the one hand you'll have high-end Confederation Line with its very high frequencies, fast speeds, and huge trains, and then the patchwork Trillium Line on the other end.
I really don't think the airport spur is going to happen as there's no money for it in the budget unless the Airport Authority coughs up the entire amount (which is unlikely).
As for bridges, there's about a dozen of them, as well as the bedrock section. The 417 bridge is being replaced in 2017 by the MTO, and it will protect for a double track line beneath it. Over time, as more of these bridges have to be replaced anyway due to reaching end-of-life, the cost of double tracking will go down.
Predicting the future is obviously difficult but I think what we'll see is:
1) After Phase 2 is finished, the inadequacy and relative shittiness of the Trillium Line will become apparent to everyone.
2) The city will respond by reducing the Trillium Line to nothing more than a local route for the places immediately adjacent (ie. walking distance) to its stations. Buses will be routed to the Confederation Line instead using the SE Transitway and other routes.
3) Public demands for improvement and double tracking and electrification will mount as those living in the south end feel shortchanged by their shitty line relative to the high quality of Confederation.
4) After the city finally has money for more stuff after spending most of its transit money on the Confederation Line, around 2030 or so, double tracking Trillium will be at the top of the list due to these public demands.
5) And voila---we have a Trillium Line upgraded to the Confederation Line's standards, in like 2040 or something.