Canada's Quiet Decline

[Nite]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

The US isn't a meaningful comparison. As the holder of the global reserve currency, it can run unthinkable deficits and use those dollars to extract wealth from all corners of the world.

I am just explaining why the US has such a large GDP per capita

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think a lot of us believed that the border would always shield southern Ontario from the severe rust belt decline observed across the Detroit and Niagara rivers.

In the end it looks like the border only delayed things, though the sting in Ontario is far less severe than what was felt in the neighbouring states.

As such the border still acts as a partial shield.

I think Ontario is shielded from the worst rustbelt effects in the same way that New York State is - the gap can be made up in many ways from a dominant major city in the jurisdiction.

No doubt the St Thomas EV plant has immense subsidies, the true extent of which are not yet clear (though unlikely to be $13 billion) - but the point is that it's the first major manufacturing facility of that scale in Ontario since, what, the Woodstock Toyota plant which opened in, what, 2008? Through that era, even with generous government subsidies, manufacturers were still avoiding the province.

COVID and the rapid changes in the automotive market towards electrification are creating a rapidly shifting manufacturing environment that could lead to good news for Ontario.

Canada has always lagged the top countries in GDP and wealth though.. it's important we frame this right. With the exception of the 2008-2015 period when Alberta was pumping money out like crazy while the US economy was in the gutter, the US has always enjoyed a significantly higher GDP per capita than Canada. That's not new. If anything, the US rapid increase of the last 8 years while Canada has stagnated has simply been a return to the historic norm. the real question is if it continues much longer, it will start to create a wider gap than "normal".

Ontario's manufacturing selling point has always been US-level labour quality and access to markets at lower prices. A big reason it declined is that it stopped being the cheapest bidder with the rise of Mexican manufacturing and off-shore manufacturing.. What's shifting today is that the gap is narrowing with China becoming more expensive and manufacturers being concerned about reliably being able to access the US market, and that fear meaning they are more willing to pick a more expensive bidder to have increased labour quality and market-access reliability.. Ontario's manufacturing future depends on manufacturers wanting that and Ontario being able to provide that.

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by Nite

I am just explaining why the US has such a large GDP per capita

Fair, didn't mean to come off like a know-it-all.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

(World Bank)

When I was a kid, we were ahead of this part of the world... and I didn't even include Norway because that's just not fair (90k USD for them... although didn't we once have a drop or two of oil too? Our currency certainly moves like that's all we've got going on...)

Denmark has 5 Million people, Sweden 9 million with a large chuck of the population in 1 city for both. More people live in the GTA than these two countries. Canada has 40 million spread across a continent size country.
Compare Canada to countries with 30+ million people for and apples to apples comparison

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by Nite

Denmark has 5 Million people, Sweden 8 million with a large chuck of the population in 1 city. Canada has 40 million spread across a continent size country.
Compare Canada to contrives with 30+ million people for and apples to apples comparison

That big piece of real estate might entail a few carrying costs, but it has valuable stuff in it, too.

Denmark is not very much like Canada, but Sweden is quite a bit closer.

To be blunt, I think Sweden's population is more innovative and productive per head than Canada's.

Not by a million miles, not by enough to make it into some egregious insult for Canada or compliment for Sweden, but by a noticeable chunk.

It's too bad, because we're more charismatic

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Nite

The US is running a 1.3 trillion dollar deficit that get pump into the economy, the US military cost are only 700 billion, so the US deficit. For Canada a 1.3 Trillion dollar deficit would be equivalent to the Canadian federal government running 140 Billion dollar deficit every year, so imagine what that would do to Canadian GDP figures if we ran such massive deficits. The US also has very expensive private healthcare which no other developed country has which also greatly inflates their GDP figures.

US Federal Deficit

That's a per-capita GDP difference of about $3,750 USD.. so sure, remove that, and the US has a GDP per capita of $66.5k while Canada has one of $52k. It's still a huge gap.

Yes - a lot of US's excess GDP goes to stupid things like the military and healthcare, but that's still extra spending which Canadian's simply don't have access to.

We can dig into the details of the different political systems, and the greater wealth inequality in the US, but it is objectively wealthier than Canada and has objectively seen a massive increase in household incomes in the last decade while Canada has stagnated. Some of Canada's stagnation has been a result in it's currency devaluation over the same period and the decline of excess GDP getting pumped out of the Alberta oilsands which paints a worse picture than what I think is necessarily true (i.e. Quebec's significant rise), but it's ultimately stagnated.

[LightingGuy]

Originally Posted by Nite

Denmark has 5 Million people, Sweden 9 million with a large chuck of the population in 1 city for both. More people live in the GTA than these two countries. Canada has 40 million spread across a continent size country.
Compare Canada to countries with 30+ million people for and apples to apples comparison

I agree with this. Germany, France and UK would be better comparisons.

[kool maudit]

Sweden is a lot more similar to Canada than those countries. You guys are putting too much stock in population alone, it's a story as old as SSP.

[kool maudit]

In 1945, Canada was a bit more populous than Sweden is today. If a low population is such an advantage in terms of GDP per capita, and I am not sure of this at all, we could have had that too.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

I agree with this. Germany, France and UK would be better comparisons.

Despite Nite's dire warnings of EU population declines, most of Germany feels far more prosperous than Canada.

[Acajack]

Sweden reminds me of Quebec a bit.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

In 1945, Canada was a bit more populous than Sweden is today. If a low population is such an advantage in terms of GDP per capita, and I am not sure of this at all, we could have had that too.

For such a heavily resource based economy it's certainly an advantage, but to what end? I didn't think that maximizing per capita GDP was our great national project.

[kool maudit]

Surely part of the innate appeal of a giant, sparsely populated country is that each man can have quite a lot to himself.

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Despite Nite's dire warnings of EU population declines, most of Germany feels far more prosperous than Canada.

The UK, meanwhile, feels poorer (and it is).

[LightingGuy]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Despite Nite's dire warnings of EU population declines, most of Germany feels far more prosperous than Canada.

I was responding in regards to the comparable population sizes.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

The UK, meanwhile, feels poorer (and it is).

IMO the UK should be viewed as a bit of a warning to us. It's shockingly poor outside of parts of London and the Home Counties, and in pretty steep relative decline to boot. Scotland seems to be a faring a bit better compared to the other parts, but that may be more of a recognition of their status - not as much disparity in wealth.

IIRC the UK is one of the faster growing countries in Europe too.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

Surely part of the innate appeal of a giant, sparsely populated country is that each man can have quite a lot to himself.

In what sense? Do you mean in terms of space? Because most people gravitate to the densely populated, crowded urban centres.

If the goal is to have quite a lot of the country's GDP, then our immigration policies have been at odds with that for the last 150 years.

[someone123]

I can believe that a 30 million person country might be as dynamic as Canada, or maybe even 20 million, but 10 million? Absurd on its face.

On a more serious note I get the impression that the governments of Sweden or Denmark are just more functional and competent than Canada's. For example around here people say there is or isn't a GP shortage and you should go to the physician list which may or may not exist still, etc. while in Denmark the norm is automatic assignment of GPs and it's perhaps not an issue of contention.

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by niwell

IMO the UK should be viewed as a bit of a warning to us. It's shockingly poor outside of parts of London and the Home Counties, and in pretty steep relative decline to boot. Scotland seems to be a faring a bit better compared to the other parts, but that may be more of a recognition of their status - not as much disparity in wealth.

IIRC the UK is one of the faster growing countries in Europe too.

Looking at UK job listings is just dire, particularly London. Warsaw salaries and NYC real estate costs.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

I can believe that a 30 million person country might be as dynamic as Canada, or maybe even 20 million, but 10 million? Absurd on its face.

On a more serious note I get the impression that the governments of Sweden or Denmark are just more functional and competent than Canada's. For example around here people say there is or isn't a GP shortage and you should go to the physician list which may or may not exist still, etc. while in Denmark the norm is automatic assignment of GPs.

Not sure if they are officially unitary states but they are way closer to that than Canada is.

Of course, Canada as a unitary state = no Canada.