Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Given the recent events in Sussex, it seems rather incongruous that Premier Brian Gallant is consorting in Davos Switzerland with his pals Justin and Dominic rather than commiserating with the locals back home.

IIRC, he only found out after he got there.

[Good2go]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

IIRC, he only found out after he got there.

Don't confuse him with the facts.

[pierremoncton]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Given the recent events in Sussex, it seems rather incongruous that Premier Brian Gallant is consorting in Davos Switzerland with his pals Justin and Dominic rather than commiserating with the locals back home.

Please... as if anything would change were he to lead the pity party.

All governments have things to be validly criticized for. This isn't one of them.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Please... as if anything would change were he to lead the pity party.

Granted, but the optics are still bad.

It's important for politicians to show that they care. He could also proactively make a commitment to Sussex residents to help in their economic recovery in any way possible, say with making an announcement that it is now time to consider relaxing the shale gas moratorium. There are literally trillions of square meters of natural gas in the ground in that part of the province which could help in any economic recovery.

[Good2go]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Granted, but the optics are still bad.

Worse than the PCs using this for their own political gain?? They make ambulance chasers look good in comparison.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Good2go

Worse than the PCs using this for their own political gain?? They make ambulance chasers look good in comparison.

Just the nature of politics these days. If Alward had been on the Davos junket and a major catastrophe befallen the province while he was gone, the Liberals would have been howling in outrage too.

BTW - to my knowledge, this is the first time an NB premier has gone to this meeting. Is there a reason for this other than the fact that Dominic invited him along? What business does the premier of a small province have of being at such a meeting? He would seem to be way out of his league here.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

BTW - to my knowledge, this is the first time an NB premier has gone to this meeting. Is there a reason for this other than the fact that Dominic invited him along? What business does the premier of a small province have of being at such a meeting? He would seem to be way out of his league here.

Courtesy of Laura Brown on Twitter:

Originally Posted by @LauraBrownCTV

Because he's named a Young Global Leader, his ticket to the World Economic Forum was paid for ... The rest of the trip was paid for by NBers. @DonArsenault said he's [Gallant] meeting with Glencore, IBM, Alibaba and Uber during his time in Davos.

Uber is a company i'd be interested in seeing expand to NB but that depends more on individual municipalities. Saint John, for example, would be a perfect city for Uber because it's currently controlled by a taxi cartel and it's a large city with a smaller population, meaning that a car is required. Having competition to lower prices would go a long way. Gallant can't say much more in the meeting than "Yeah, we'd like to have you in NB". He has nothing he can offer Uber. At all.

Originally Posted by Good2Go

Worse than the PCs using this for their own political gain?? They make ambulance chasers look good in comparison.

They're playing the usual Opposition angle...and they're mostly correct. 400-500 people lose their jobs and the Premier and co. are nowhere to be found. Closest thing to a leader they sent was the MLA from Dalhousie, for all the help he'd be. Not very reassuring. If only this mill closed down a Liberal riding...

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Please... as if anything would change were he to lead the pity party.

All governments have things to be validly criticized for. This isn't one of them.

The optics are brutal and backyard Provincial politics are built on optics. Sussex and the Fundy region don't vote Liberal and thanks to this they won't be any time soon.

[OliverD]

Why does a premier need to be present when a company makes a business decision that results in layoffs?

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by JHikka

The optics are brutal and backyard Provincial politics are built on optics. Sussex and the Fundy region don't vote Liberal and thanks to this they won't be any time soon.

So those people lost their jobs because of the Liberals?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by OliverD

So those people lost their jobs because of the Liberals?

People in the Sussex area tend to be pro shale gas. Gallant and the Liberals placed a moratorium on shale gas development (including drilling new wells to supply the potash plant, even though the plant already uses fracked natural gas wells).

I realize that it is mostly because of world market conditions that the mine has been shuttered, but people in Sussex might rightfully feel that the government could have been more supportive. And the Premier is nowhere in sight.........

When Gallant gets back from hobnobbing in Davos, his first stop had better be Sussex, and he had better have something concrete to say.......

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

People in the Sussex area tend to be pro shale gas. Gallant and the Liberals placed a moratorium on shale gas development (including drilling new wells to supply the potash plant, even though the plant already uses fracked natural gas wells).

I realize that it is mostly because of world market conditions that the mine has been shuttered, but people in Sussex might rightfully feel that the government could have been more supportive. And the Premier is nowhere in sight.........

When Gallant gets back from hobnobbing in Davos, his first stop had better be Sussex, and he had better have something concrete to say.......

What do you want him to say other than that they are lifting the moratorium?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by OliverD

So those people lost their jobs because of the Liberals?

Folks in the mill lost their jobs because the purchasing power of Brazilian currency has crashed even more against the USD than the CAD had. Potash's major export destination was Brazil and the money just isn't in Brazil to buy as much of it anymore. That's the Cole's notes, anyway.

People like blaming governments because it's the easiest thing to do. Perhaps if the Liberals weren't planning on raising Corporate or High-end Income taxes more companies would open, expand, or relocate to New Brunswick to make up for these resource sector losses. Perhaps.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Perhaps if the Liberals weren't planning on raising Corporate or High-end Income taxes more companies would open, expand, or relocate to New Brunswick to make up for these resource sector losses. Perhaps.

Indeed both of these measures will be the killer of jobs. The new high income tax rate gives NB one of the highest tax regimes on the planet. I know the Liberals are muttering about reducing the marginal rate because of the new taxes that Justin plans on introducing. They had better do so. Entrepreneurs will relocate. Talented people will move. I know a couple of specialist physicians in Saint John who have left for this very reason.

[pierremoncton]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Uber is a company i'd be interested in seeing expand to NB but that depends more on individual municipalities. Saint John, for example, would be a perfect city for Uber because it's currently controlled by a taxi cartel and it's a large city with a smaller population, meaning that a car is required. Having competition to lower prices would go a long way. Gallant can't say much more in the meeting than "Yeah, we'd like to have you in NB". He has nothing he can offer Uber. At all.

It might lead to nothing, but I'd rather have our premier courting businesses of the future than more soul-sucking call centres that feed off grants and pay their staff so little that there's effectively no net financial benefit.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

People in the Sussex area tend to be pro shale gas. Gallant and the Liberals placed a moratorium on shale gas development (including drilling new wells to supply the potash plant, even though the plant already uses fracked natural gas wells).

Honest question: Does fracking even make economic sense now given low energy prices? I've read a mix of opinions and I don't know what's what.

Originally Posted by JHikka

Perhaps if the Liberals weren't planning on raising Corporate or High-end Income taxes more companies would open, expand, or relocate to New Brunswick to make up for these resource sector losses. Perhaps.

For the record:

The previous Liberal government had reduced the corporate tax rate to 10% (which was the lowest rate at the time, matching Alberta) and intended to decrease it further to 8%, which would've been the lowest rate in the country. Did that spur any growth? Nope, but the Liberals would've deserved credit.

The subsequent Conservatives are the ones who then decided not only to put an end to the planned decrease, but to revert the rate back to the current 12%. Did that kill off business? Nope, but the PCs would've deserved the blame.

The current Liberal government is proposing to increase the corporate tax rate to 13% or 14%. 14% would match NL and still be lower than NS & PEI. How likely is that to change anything? Again, not very. It won't kill business, just like the new high marginal tax bracket won't have any noticeable effects on wealth in the province.

As an exercise, go ahead and calculate how much you'd save by moving to another province when you take into account the low cost of real estate in NB. I'd personally save ~$4k a year if I moved to Ontario. $330 a month wouldn't even come close to covering the difference in real estate (plus property tax). Granted, the wealthy we're talking about (we've counted two so far) will end up saving a lot more by moving away; good for them...

Another anecdote: Nova Scotia's corporate rate is 16%, yet they're the ones getting an Ikea...

I'd be more worried about upcoming social adjustments. The future will be increasingly urban and automated, and if we want our province to thrive, we need to direct investments to our cities, as opposed to wasting resources on foolish attempts at reviving northern rural areas (like with the Caraquet Naval Centre). Rural areas will die off; and that's especially true for northern NB because it has no anchor city to support small communities.

For future urban growth, Nova Scotia has the distinct advantage of already having a medium-sized city, while New Brunswick has three small non-descript cities competing against each other; we might be better off if we had one major city like NS.

Sources for tax rates:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-br...dget-1.1337403

http://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/D...ickForward.pdf

http://trowbridge.ca/wp-content/uplo...4/12/269tb.pdf

http://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/IssuesAndI...-2015-2016.pdf

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

It might lead to nothing, but I'd rather have our premier courting businesses of the future than more soul-sucking call centres that feed off grants and pay their staff so little that there's effectively no net financial benefit.

Absolutely agree. It remains to be seen how productive Premier Gallant has been in courting businesses. One of our former Premiers works in China, another in Boston, and another in Toronto, and another in Ottawa...how much business have they been able to court to NB...either during their mandate or after? Perhaps Graham's Chinese company will make a meal out of Mactaquac...how scandalous!

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Honest question: Does fracking even make economic sense now given low energy prices? I've read a mix of opinions and I don't know what's what.

It doesn't currently, but it would be quite a large window of time between approval and implementation and extraction. Just because prices are low now doesn't mean that they will be low in five years. If hindsight is 20/20 and the PCs had implemented shale gas and we had extraction currently i'd assume the extractors wouldn't be doing as well as they thought they would have been. The American supply has essentially diluted a lot demand for the product, even before the resource crash.

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

The previous Liberal government had reduced the corporate tax rate to 10% (which was the lowest rate at the time, matching Alberta) and intended to decrease it further to 8%, which would've been the lowest rate in the country. Did that spur any growth? Nope, but the Liberals would've deserved credit.

These tax rates need to be in place for a substantial amount of time without the fear that they'll just be raised by the next government, which they have been. I think people like stability in government policies and it's the exact opposite in NB. Up one government, down one government, up one government, down one government.

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

The subsequent Conservatives are the ones who then decided not only to put an end to the planned decrease, but to revert the rate back to the current 12%. Did that kill off business? Nope, but the PCs would've deserved the blame.

Arguable. Didn't hurt start-ups but it's difficult to say how many businesses were affected. We can't sit here and say that businesses didn't close up shop in NB from 2010-2014, or downsize, or relocate.

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

The current Liberal government is proposing to increase the corporate tax rate to 13% or 14%. 14% would match NL and still be lower than NS & PEI. How likely is that to change anything? Again, not very. It won't kill business, just like the new high marginal tax bracket won't have any noticeable effects on wealth in the province.

Will it kill businesses? Perhaps not. But what incentive is there for me to move from Ontario (11.5% high) or Quebec (0%) to NB (13 or 14%) or anywhere out east for that matter. Have something at least reasonably similar to larger provinces to make up or equal the much smaller local market in the Maritimes.

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Granted, the wealthy we're talking about (we've counted two so far) will end up saving a lot more by moving away; good for them...

The most wealthy in Canada don't have accounts in Canada. Pretty straightforward. The high income taxes hurt doctors and lawyers (and perhaps strong real estate agents) the most, not the super wealthy.

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Another anecdote: Nova Scotia's corporate rate is 16%, yet they're the ones getting an Ikea...

They also have more than half of NB's population in a single metro area. That helps a bit i'd imagine.

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

I'd be more worried about upcoming social adjustments. The future will be increasingly urban and automated, and if we want our province to thrive, we need to direct investments to our cities, as opposed to wasting resources on foolish attempts at reviving northern rural areas (like with the Caraquet Naval Centre). Rural areas will die off; and that's especially true for northern NB because it has no anchor city to support small communities.

Absolutely. If it were up to me we'd remove as many rural hospitals and schools as we possibly could and force growth in our urban areas. Centralizing and regionalizing within the province is key to growth in the longterm when a lot of our rural areas will become untenable, which they nearly already are. That means amalgamating rural areas, forcing suburban areas to either amalgamate with cities or become cities in their own right, and coercing villages to become towns.

The startling thing is how much the rural areas are going to dry up in the next twenty years. Shippagan, for example, was the poorest performing town/region in NB from 2006-2011. In those five years the population decreased 6.3%. The worst part? Ages 0-14, -16.7%, ages 15-64, -9.3%, ages 65+ +21.5%.

Not only is Shippagan getting smaller but the proportion of seniors went up by a quarter in that five year period. In twenty five years the vast majority of those seniors won't be there anymore (sorry for your loss), and there will be no young people left.

For Bathurst (city), NB's 9th largest area and 327th in Canada? -3.5% growth in population. For Bathurst (region), NB's 4th largest and 82nd in Canada? -1.8% growth in population. Again, in the Bathurst region, the trend is obvious (2006-2011 changes):
Age 0-14 - -14.7%
Age 15-64 - -3.9%
Age 65+ - +19.8%

Are places more rural than Bathurst lost causes? Perhaps. In the event that rural areas near and surrounding the bigger centres (Bathurst, Miramichi, Campbellton, Edmundston) dry up, and these centres become more isolated from the growth areas in the province (Dieppe, Quispamsis, Lincoln, etc.) how will they fare? It's a conundrum for the Province: Do you try to salvage what's remaining or do you cast them away and focus on growth areas? More recent governments have done neither substantively.

The scariest thing to me is that these numbers are five years old, meaning the 65 year olds in those stats are now 70.

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

For future urban growth, Nova Scotia has the distinct advantage of already having a medium-sized city, while New Brunswick has three small non-descript cities competing against each other; we might be better off if we had one major city like NS.

This has been plainly obvious for decades now. Can't fault NB, just the way the cards were played. We could always ho-hum like older folks in SJ do about Fredericton taking the Capital away from SJ...

[Ire Narissis]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Uber is a company i'd be interested in seeing expand to NB but that depends more on individual municipalities. Saint John, for example, would be a perfect city for Uber because it's currently controlled by a taxi cartel and it's a large city with a smaller population, meaning that a car is required. Having competition to lower prices would go a long way. Gallant can't say much more in the meeting than "Yeah, we'd like to have you in NB". He has nothing he can offer Uber. At all.

I think he could offer Uber exactly what you've just pointed out: geographically large cities with spread-out populations, mediocre taxi services and stretched-thin public transit, leaving plenty of opportunity for Uber to cash in by offering a more convenient and higher standard of service.

[Nashe]

I (not so seriously, I admit) think about what the cost would be to "re-settle" parts of rural NB towards the urban centers... somewhat like the government of NL did with it's outports. The latter was a bit more extreme of an example, but there has to be at least a break-even at some point... where the cost to buy-out and move someone is less than the cost of infrastructure and services to cover the dwindling population.

The wildcard is, of course, people probably don't WANT to move... the ones that might be most incentivized by a buy-out would be the 0-45 year olds... which kinda doesn't help.

[Taeolas]

And the Big surprise of absolutely no one, Mayor For Life Brad Woodside confirms he is running again.

Brad Woodside says he will run for the mayor of Fredericton in 2016 afterall.

Woodside indicated earlier he would be on the ballot in May's municipal election, but was undecided about running for mayor or for a seat on city council.

On Thursday, Woodside put the mystery to an end, tweeting that he would run for mayor.

"I've decided to spend the last of my working years doing what I love most, being your Mayor," said Woodside in a tweet with the hashtag #BradforMayor.

Mike O'Brien, who has been the city councillor representing the ward where Woodside lives, has also declared he will run for mayor.

A third candidate for mayor is Malcolm Cumming.

In 2012, Woodside had declared that campaign would be his last for mayor.

[JHikka]

NB Budget 2016

HST up 2% to 15%.
No Highway Tolls
1,300 Civil Service Jobs cut (30% reduction) over five years
Corporate Income Tax increased 2% to 14%.

via @poitrasCBC
Liberal budget confirms 30 per cent cut to senior civil service by
March 31, with cut to middle managers to come over 5 years.

NB BUDGET: "Non-core" functions at Dept. of Transportation will be
privatized, eliminated 200 casual positions.

NB BUDGET: Gov't will seek private-sector operators for Larry's Gulch
lodge, Mactaquac golf course.

NB BUDGET: to reflect student population decline, gov't will replace
only 150 of the 200 teachers who retire this year.

NB BUDGET: Liberals will offer infrastructure funding to communities
that amalgamate into "viable" size (population, tax base)

NB BUDGET: Gov't will "optimize" school bus routes. Won't explain
changes, but say they "may be difficult."

NB BUDGET: Liberals to close and centralize gov't call centres and
land registry offices.

NB BUDGET: Dept. of Social Development will impose "maximums" on some
health coverage programs for people in need.

NB BUDGET: Gov't will change binding-arbitration rules in labour
negotiations to deter large pay increases.

More on budget: gov't will explore privatizing some registries such as motor vehicles & corporate registry.

More on budget: gov't will also "outsource to a not-for-profit corporation" the administration of gov't pensions & benefits.

@LauraBrownCTV
Tobacco tax increasing TONIGHT a midnight by 3.26 cents. Increasing again on Feb 1, 2017 by another 3.26 cents

Budget 2016: removal of the Gagetown ferry, saving $5 M by not replacing it.

Visitor info centres at Cape Jourimain and Campobello will close.

$296M spending cuts, $293M new revenue, $347M deficit for upcoming fiscal year @CTVAtlantic #nbpoli

Government plans to "optimize" school bus routes. Didn't explain changes, but will save over $2M over next two years. #nbpoli

They found $589M but deficit still projected to be $347M. HST tax credit to cost $100M #nbpoli

Want your name on a gov't building? Or perhaps advertise in the middle of Parlee Beach? Budget says you can do it now, for the right price.

By March: 30% of 102 senior management jobs within Gov't dpts will be cut. Another 30% middle management jobs cut over next couple years.

@NickMooreCTV
Some gov't departments will merge, to be announced in next cabinet shuffle #NBBudget

Dept. of Transportation to shift operations to private sector, impacting 200 casual workers during construction season #NBBudget

NB Liquor to develop plan w/ "objective of maximizing net income," meant to add $20M in revenue #NBBudget


@CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-br...-hst-1.3430148

Originally Posted by CBC

The provincial government is also cancelling its top income tax rate because of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's introduction of a top marginal personal income tax rate.

The province's top income tax rate had been 25.75 per cent. Retroactive to Jan. 1, 2016, the tax bracket for income over $150,000 will be 20.3 per cent.

@CTV
http://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/n-b-budge...ce=twitterfeed

@RadioCanada
http://ici.radio-canada.ca/regions/a...medium=twitter

@Huddle
http://huddle.today/nb-budget-taxes-going-up/

Originally Posted by Huddle

Real Property Transfer Tax Goes Up

Buying a property in New Brunswick will get more expensive as the province is raising the Real Property Transfer Tax. The tax, a one-time payment on the purchase of a property when the deed is registered, will increase from 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent effective April 1, 2016.

For a home costing $164,000, for example, this represents an additional cost to the buyer of $820.

Bank Taxes Go Up

The provincial government will increase the financial corporation capital tax rate from four per cent to five per cent for banks, effective April 1, 2016.

GNB Release:
http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/ne...6.02.0068.html

Reaction:

@DavidCCoon
Privatizing the management of services to the public puts foreign corporations in charge of them.#nb

Privatizing the delivery of some community-based primary health care services under discussion with Medavie Blue Cross. #nb

NB budget looking to NB Liquor to sell more booze. How is that preventative health care? Watch for liquor coming to your local grocery.#nb

University funding is frozen again, so tuition will climb to a 2 percent cap.#nb

Despite overwhelming opposition advertising space will be sold on buildings, bridges, parks, ferries, and in public areas of gov't offices.

This budget continues to subsidize big business rather than better looking after our people, who could then patronize local businesses. #nb

@JoelHRichardson
2% corp tax increase on #nbemployers is bad news #manufacturing #exports @cme_mec #nb #nbpoli

@KrisAustinPA
More cuts, more spending, tax break for highest earners, 15% HST. Oh, and we still have a $347 million deficit. #Nbpoli #nb

@DominicCardy
Budget: No help for the poor. No help 4 small businesses. More money out of your pocket in taxes. More corporate welfare. No change. #nbpoli

@Jeffcarr4nms
$600,000 taken from sport and recreation...just when our Canada games teams were becoming competitive, we were one of the best improved

@CNWNews
@RestaurantsCA say HST increase is the wrong recipe for #economic growth #NBPoli

[MonctonRad]

A generally sound and reasonable budget.

- The province had no choice but to go back to a 15% HST. They should have done it last year. Shit, Alward should have done it four years ago!

- I agree that it was too soon to do anything about road tolls. This requires further discussion and study. Personally, I would put in a blended system with toll booths on the borders at Edmundston, Woodstock, Saint Stephen & Aulac but supplement these with additional toll stations on route 2 between Freddy & Moncton, and route 1 between SJ and Moncton. If you did this, the tolls at each station could be $5 rather than a $10 admission toll to NB.

- I also think the time has come to close the rural hospitals and convert them into nursing homes with adjoining community health centres. This province only really needs about 9-10 real hospitals to provide competent care. There could be a lot of savings here!

- I'm more sympathetic towards maintaining rural schools, at least at the elementary level. Nobody wants to see 6 year olds on a bus for 90 minutes every morning. Small 2-3 room rural schools are fine for younger kids. It's only with the need for more specialized programs in the senior years that consolidation is necessary.