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  #961  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 5:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Why would fewer girls have been born in Canada than in the US during that period?
I edited my comment, since I didn't realize that TFR is calculated based on women aged 15-49 in that year.

My original comment was based on the premise that because proportionally fewer people (ipso facto, fewer women) were born in Canada compared to the US 30-40 years ago, there would be fewer babies born today. There is, of course, children born to immigrants, and also what I mentioned above would be accounted for by TFR.
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  #962  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 5:08 PM
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Hispanics and Blacks in the US have higher than average birth rates, so that pulls the US' TFR up slightly relative to ours.

Indigenous people also have higher birth rates in both countries, but the numbers are too small to affect the national TFR rates much.

Canada doesn't have any large demographics with higher birth rates like American Hispanics and Blacks. (Well, it did with French Canadians historically, but that was another era.)
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  #963  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 5:11 PM
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Not really adding anything new to the discussion here...

Having children is a deeply personal choice, and nobody should be shamed for having or not having kids at a certain point in their life. If people still want to be "self-indulgent" by age 40, they probably shouldn't be parents, anyway.

Objectively, the planet will be better if there are fewer people on it.

Our economic system that relies on constant growth may not be able to sustain this, but so be it...it's getting very long in the tooth and if we are too braindead to come up with viable alternatives then maybe necessity will force us.
This is true though even if we attempt to change the economic system to a more sustainable one and are successful at that, we'll still need some semblance of balance on our age pyramid in order for society to be able to continue to function well.
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  #964  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 5:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Nashe View Post
My personal opinion on the whole "selfishness" angle (sorry to belabour the point) is that the feelings of "legacy" and the "joy" to be gotten from childrearing definitely exist and are commendable.

...and in times past they MIGHT have been some of the ONLY ones available to working-class folks. Travel the world? Spend time on a fulfilling but expensive hobby? Those have all been "unlocked" in the past few decades. I can see how someone bent towards childrearing might consider those endeavors "selfish" but I don't see how, if the end result is the same: a joyful, fulfilled life.
Yeah it's all fine. We don't need to breed endlessly to survive. Life could probably be a lot better if the global population was smaller and stable.
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  #965  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 5:37 PM
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The general trend lines are similar, but interestingly you can really see a sharp crash in recent years on Canada's line, vs. the more gradual decline in the US. This would certainly suggest that we are experiencing some specific, unique pressures (ie. housing crisis) that are impacting our TFR beyond the broader sociocultural dynamics.


Anyway, I've posted this before, but it's worth noting that Canada's reported "desired" fertility rate is about 2.2, while our actual rate is only 1.4. Clearly people want to have more kids, but due to various barriers are ultimately having less (whether by choice or not): https://thehub.ca/2023-03-14/countin...ility-desires/. We can't force people to procreate, but we can make it easier for them to have the families they actually do want.
It almost looks like things were stable from the 1980s to be about 2015, and then something happened...
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  #966  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 5:37 PM
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FWIW The average woman in Canada wants 2.2 children. They have 1.4.
That's fantastic. So I'm off the hook, then!
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  #967  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 6:57 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Yeah it's all fine. We don't need to breed endlessly to survive. Life could probably be a lot better if the global population was smaller and stable.
Maybe not endlessly (assuming you meant "in an unlimited way") but we do need to breed more than we die in order to survive, don't we? Basic math.
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  #968  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Maybe not endlessly (assuming you meant "in an unlimited way") but we do need to breed more than we die in order to survive, don't we? Basic math.
Of course, but the rapid growth in recent centuries is putting obvious strains on the system.
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  #969  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:15 PM
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Maybe not endlessly (assuming you meant "in an unlimited way") but we do need to breed more than we die in order to survive, don't we? Basic math.
I'd think that after some period of die-off, we'd reach a new equilibrium point. Would it be fun getting there? Probably not. But I don't think it would mean the death of the species. We didn't get to where we are now by aiming at any particular birth rate.
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  #970  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:23 PM
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I'd think that after some period of die-off, we'd reach a new equilibrium point. Would it be fun getting there? Probably not. But I don't think it would mean the death of the species. We didn't get to where we are now by aiming at any particular birth rate.
A major paradigm shift for SSP where there is always great excitement every time Statistics Canada comes out with new CMA population estimates so that we can try and figure out who the "winners" and the "losers" are.
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  #971  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Nashe View Post
I'd think that after some period of die-off, we'd reach a new equilibrium point. Would it be fun getting there? Probably not. But I don't think it would mean the death of the species. We didn't get to where we are now by aiming at any particular birth rate.
I am not really worried about humans dying off as a species. At least not due to a lack of reproduction that would take hold worldwide in every nook and cranny of humanity. Perhaps due to some type of cataclysmic disruption of the conditions in the biosphere?

It's more about the viability of functioning societies. Especially the one I live in and the one my kids (and eventual grandkids I suppose) will live in.

(See? I have a real stake in the future!)
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  #972  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:24 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
A major paradigm shift for SSP where there is always great excitement every time Statistics Canada comes out with new CMA population estimates so that we can try and figure out who the "winners" and the "losers" are.
Good eye there!
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  #973  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
I am not really worried about humans dying off as a species. At least not due to a lack of reproduction that would take hold worldwide in every nook and cranny of humanity. Perhaps due to some type of cataclysmic disruption of the conditions in the biosphere? It's more about the viability of functioning societies. Especially the one I live in and the one my kids (and eventual grandkids I suppose) will live in. (See? I have a real stake in the future!)
Yes but no society is static. The current situation is a miniscule snapshot-in-time. It might last our entire lifetimes, but still, on the grand scale of human history it's a blink. Who's to say something better wouldn't come with the earth at 50% population? Or 150%? We're crap at projections. We may be a violent, short-sighted species, but boy, are we adaptable!
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  #974  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:32 PM
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Try to make cost-of-living much lower without requiring a top-down program to deliver incentive. I have memories of a family of six living across the street growing up. They had a small bungalow and a couple of (older) vehicles in the driveway. It seemed a lot more possible in the 1980s/1990s, even with the high interest rates of the era. Today, it's an upper-middle class, two-income, highly indebted dream.

Instead of just 'more Canada', frame it as 'better Canada'.
I agree and disagree. We as a society are much more self-absorbed than we were decades ago. We have become conditioned to the norm of a large, detached home in the suburbs with two cars in the driveway (with more bedrooms in the house than people living in the house), to the point that we feel entitled to it. We feel entitled to taking foreign trips down south or to Europe.

60 years ago, most people had much more modestly sized homes. The single income earner was the norm. Very, very few people had more than one car. Vacations were places you could drive to in a day. And families were much larger. Kids would often share a bedroom. People just aspired to different things. We were less materialistic, and more focused on (growing) our families. In many respects, I think we have lost our way as a society.

On the other hand, it takes longer to get to an income level that would sustain a typical middle-class lifestyle. In many cases, you need a university education, which means delaying, by years, entry into the workforce (beyond part-time, short gig, non career types of employment). In many cases, you need two incomes to have that lifestyle, and women's participation in tertiary education has been higher than that of men for three decades. Many women, especially those that are highly educated and with professional careers, are not content to be homemakers. After a couple of years of valiantly trying to do both, my wife gave up her career, to rear our two children, and that meant a considerable hit to our finances and lifestyle. We've only ever had one car. For many years, our vacations were very modest. We sharply curtailed spending on clothing, entertainment, furniture, upgrades, etc. We have a big house, but my home was purchased before real estate prices got stupid, and I had made some good investments in the years before getting married (late for me at 35, with my first kid arriving when I was 36). She only just reentered the workforce, basically starting all over again (and somehow, my wallet is lighter than ever before). We both wanted more children, but by the time we were ready to contemplate a third (three years after the birth of our second child), we were feeling exhausted, and (with me being in my early forties by then), sort of past our prime (I would do the math about "if we had another kid now, and assuming they stayed at home until they were 25, how old would I be before we were empty nesters?"...I was contemplating being nearly 70 by then). Plus, kids are ABSURDLY expensive (they don't have to be, but the way things are currently set up....it is basically an arms race of extra-curriculars, etc. and of having to pay for things that were formerly paid by the state). As someone else (Acajack?) put it: Ontario treats having children as an extravagant indulgence.
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  #975  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:45 PM
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I agree and disagree. We as a society are much more self-absorbed than we were decades ago. We have become conditioned to the norm of a large, detached home in the suburbs with two cars in the driveway (with more bedrooms in the house than people living in the house), to the point that we feel entitled to it. We feel entitled to taking foreign trips down south or to Europe.
I kind of agree, but with some qualifications... I think we tend to look at history sometimes with rose tinted glasses... I grew up amongst a widely varied set of families. Some had a lot, some had little. Some had big families, some had small families.

I think what has also changed, giving us maybe the illusion that perhaps our parents (grandparents?) were somehow more altruistic was that they just didn't have the opportunities for self-development that we do today. Example: Could my Acadian grandmother have seen Tokyo or Buenos Aires? Maybe TECHNICALLY, but practically: no. She wasn't just limited by lack of air travel, or money... but just knowledge; something we take for granted today. Could she have six kids and make bread and pie her whole life? Sure. Increasingly varied opportunities are going to create increasingly varied lifestyles. Grammy wasn't having her (9 actually) kids to somehow prop up Canada's birth rate after WWII in a fit of self-sacrifice. She just loved kids and taking care of them and never dreamed of anything else.
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  #976  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:49 PM
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Yes but no society is static. The current situation is a miniscule snapshot-in-time. It might last our entire lifetimes, but still, on the grand scale of human history it's a blink. Who's to say something better wouldn't come with the earth at 50% population? Or 150%? We're crap at projections. We may be a violent, short-sighted species, but boy, are we adaptable!
Human societies and their evolution are not inexorably linear. We have good periods and then bad ones and then good ones.

The Dark Ages followed the Roman Empire which is the number one choice of western historians for the best period in human history.
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  #977  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:54 PM
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Human societies and their evolution are not inexorably linear. We have good periods and then bad ones and then good ones.
The Dark Ages followed the Roman Empire which is the number one choice of western historians for the best period in human history.
SSP will have to rebrand if we hit Dark Ages 2.0, when it was a lot healthier to live outside the cities.
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  #978  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 7:55 PM
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I kind of agree, but with some qualifications... I think we tend to look at history sometimes with rose tinted glasses... I grew up amongst a widely varied set of families. Some had a lot, some had little. Some had big families, some had small families.

I think what has also changed, giving us maybe the illusion that perhaps our parents (grandparents?) were somehow more altruistic was that they just didn't have the opportunities for self-development that we do today. Example: Could my Acadian grandmother have seen Tokyo or Buenos Aires? Maybe TECHNICALLY, but practically: no. She wasn't just limited by lack of air travel, or money... but just knowledge; something we take for granted today. Could she have six kids and make bread and pie her whole life? Sure. Increasingly varied opportunities are going to create increasingly varied lifestyles. Grammy wasn't having her (9 actually) kids to somehow prop up Canada's birth rate after WWII in a fit of self-sacrifice. She just loved kids and taking care of them and never dreamed of anything else.
For another example: most homeless people I personally know... have iPhones. I'm pretty sure your grandma would find this fact to be nuts

It's pretty easy to tailor one's "quality of life" definition to prove whatever point one seeks to prove. It's not a problem to "prove" that we're greatly worse off, or very much better off, or anywhere in between, than the generations who preceded us. Just cherry-pick the metrics you want and bingo
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  #979  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 10:53 PM
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It almost looks like things were stable from the 1980s to be about 2015, and then something happened...
It did - it's when millennials, if they were chosing to have children, would have been having them.

Generally, the narrative suggests, that women are often torn between their career prospects and having children. And in the US, more women say they don't want children than men. [https://www.pewresearch.org/short-re...ents-someday/].

In Canada, women are now more educated than men (4.4m have a bachelor's degree or higher, compared to under 3.7m men). "The more educated a woman gets, the more likely she is to postpone having a child until her 30s. While that's partly explained by student debt, it's also because women today have more life options than women did 50 years ago." [source]

In the US, 1 in 4 childless adults say climate change has factored into their reproductive decisions [source].

Another factor may be the ability of women to conceive. Global sperm counts have plummeted, and apparently continue to fall. Endocrine disruptors have been suggested as a possible cause.

Fertility rates in Canada plummeted from 1961, when the pill was authorized for use, until around 1980. The rate was fairly level until 2009, when it started falling again.

Here's a Statistics Canada graphic.
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  #980  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2024, 11:20 PM
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So you'll attribute the causes to sperm counts, millennials, climate change, and educational attainment; but find it inconceivable that cost of living & housing costs have had any impact?

Curious as to how you'd explain the particularly sharp drop post 2020 (and the fact that this trend is not mirrored on the US's line on the chart posted earlier)?
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