YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Gordon]

787-9 or 777-20LR

[Johnny Aussie]

It's all pretty exciting.

Like I said about a month ago Air Canada (including rouge) ain't done with YVR expansion yet. Don't forget the AC investor day map does have BKK and SIN on it. No question AC is looking deep into the feasibility of such a route...

Wouldn't that be awesome AC, TG, SQ.....

On the down side, the cap on Chinese Airlines frequencies wasn't raised. There was a shuffle but no increases. We still might be able to score Hainan to TSN but that's pretty much it. There won't be any frequencies left for MU to start Xi'an. CZ to MEX is (almost) a certainty so there will be 9 weekly to CAN.
Note the cap includes cargo flights.

[trofirhen]

Do you think there is any possibility of AF making a winter season run to PPT from YVR? Funnily enough, going through YVR is only about 50 miles longer than through LAX, which is right on the great circle route.
Vancouver is really becoming a sovereign Pacific-Asia airport, outdone only by LAX and SFO,
with the destinations it has, and those upcoming !

[casper]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

It's all pretty exciting.

Like I said about a month ago Air Canada (including rouge) ain't done with YVR expansion yet. Don't forget the AC investor day map does have BKK and SIN on it. No question AC is looking deep into the feasibility of such a route...

Wouldn't that be awesome AC, TG, SQ.....

On the down side, the cap on Chinese Airlines frequencies wasn't raised. There was a shuffle but no increases. We still might be able to score Hainan to TSN but that's pretty much it. There won't be any frequencies left for MU to start Xi'an. CZ to MEX is (almost) a certainty so there will be 9 weekly to CAN.
Note the cap includes cargo flights.

Usually the rights extended to one country is symmetric with the rights extended to the other country. That would mean that Air Canada (or even WestJet) should have access to frequencies and destinations they are not using.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by casper

Usually the rights extended to one country is symmetric with the rights extended to the other country. That would mean that Air Canada (or even WestJet) should have access to frequencies and destinations they are not using.

Absolutely ... Each country is entitled to 76 frequencies per week.

AC is way under utilising the Canadian side!

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

On the down side, the cap on Chinese Airlines frequencies wasn't raised. There was a shuffle but no increases. We still might be able to score Hainan to TSN but that's pretty much it. There won't be any frequencies left for MU to start Xi'an. CZ to MEX is (almost) a certainty so there will be 9 weekly to CAN.
Note the cap includes cargo flights.

And Sichuan to CGO?

Something MU might be able to do is to move the Kunming route to KMG-XIY-YVR, and put 77W on the remaining 11x weekly PVG-YVR route.... or is that not allowed?

KMG-XIY-YVR is a much shorter routing than KMG-PVG-YVR too...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

And Sichuan to CGO?

Something MU might be able to do is to move the Kunming route to KMG-XIY-YVR, and put 77W on the remaining 11x weekly PVG-YVR route.... or is that not allowed?

KMG-XIY-YVR is a much shorter routing than KMG-PVG-YVR too...

Sichuan is capped at 3pw so any flights to CGO would have to come at the expense of SHE.

The MU routing is definitely allowed under your plan.

And it is also very possible we may see the 748 on YVR-PEK in lieu of lesser frequencies.

The cap on Chinese flights also affects the whole of Canada so very little in the way of possible new routes or added frequencies on existing routes without shuffling around current routes. It's all about frequencies and not seats.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Sichuan is capped at 3pw so any flights to CGO would have to come at the expense of SHE.

I remember Sichuan ran 4x weekly CTU-SHE-YVR a few summers ago. Maybe they are alloted to 4x weekly instead of 3x, so they could give 2x weekly to each route?

There was a bulletin a while ago that CAAC will start to penalize airlines that were granted frequencies but does not start the route and use at least 65% of it in any 4 continuous weeks. It makes sense if Sichuan is indeed granted 4x weekly, as they would now either have to run at least 3x weekly year-round, give up that 1x weekly to a competitor, or reassign and use it on another route...

From the Chinese media, the government officials of Zhengzhou had hinted for the route since early 2015 and even visited here a couple of times... I'd say the route is quite likely even at the expense of SHE

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

I remember Sichuan ran 4x weekly CTU-SHE-YVR a few summers ago. Maybe they are alloted to 4x weekly instead of 3x, so they could give 2x weekly to each route?

There was a bulletin a while ago that CAAC will start to penalize airlines that were granted frequencies but does not start the route and use at least 65% of it in any 4 continuous weeks. It makes sense if Sichuan is indeed granted 4x weekly, as they would now either have to run at least 3x weekly year-round, give up that 1x weekly to a competitor, or reassign and use it on another route...

From the Chinese media, the government officials of Zhengzhou had hinted for the route since early 2015 and even visited here a couple of times... I'd say the route is quite likely even at the expense of SHE

Yes, Sichuan did run 4 weekly for a very short period. That was back when the allotted frequencies were not fully utilised. Fast forward to 2016 and the demand has greatly outstripped the supply on the Chinese side.

The latest allotment shuffle comes into effect in October. No additional frequencies but there was some shift around between carriers. For Beijing Capital to get into YVR required the shuffle.
What sucks though is the allotment cap includes cargo frequencies.

I have no idea when the next round of talks will take place.

[Johnny Aussie]

From August 2016 YVR AirMail.

http://www.yvr.ca/en/blog/craigs-corner-team-yvr

A bit of a what-goes-in to route development talk and some of the recent achievements.

By Craig Richmond, CEO of VAA.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

From August 2016 YVR AirMail.

http://www.yvr.ca/en/blog/craigs-corner-team-yvr

A bit of a what-goes-in to route development talk and some of the recent achievements.

By Craig Richmond, CEO of VAA.

Wow, with such a surge (20%) in Latin American visitors via Aeromexico (and AC), I'd love to one day see regular flights to Guadalajara and maybe Monterrey.
For the record, Volaris flies Seattle-Guadalajara. Though (from Wikipedia) they appear not to have a regular flight to Mexico City, whereas YVR does. Hm (?)

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Wow, with such a surge (20%) in Latin American visitors via Aeromexico (and AC), I'd love to one day see regular flights to Guadalajara and maybe Monterrey.
For the record, Volaris flies Seattle-Guadalajara. Though (from Wikipedia) they appear not to have a regular flight to Mexico City, whereas YVR does. Hm (?)

Mexicana did fly to both GDL and MTY back in MX's heyday. Both were a few flights per week that continued on to MEX. That was in addition to the nonstop flights to MEX. I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities for more service to Mexico of the non-resort variety too.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

It's all pretty exciting.

Like I said about a month ago Air Canada (including rouge) ain't done with YVR expansion yet. Don't forget the AC investor day map does have BKK and SIN on it. No question AC is looking deep into the feasibility of such a route...

Wouldn't that be awesome AC, TG, SQ.....

Well unless I have remembered incorrectly the BKK was actually to Toronto, which makes limited sense.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

On the down side, the cap on Chinese Airlines frequencies wasn't raised. There was a shuffle but no increases. We still might be able to score Hainan to TSN but that's pretty much it. There won't be any frequencies left for MU to start Xi'an. CZ to MEX is (almost) a certainty so there will be 9 weekly to CAN.
Note the cap includes cargo flights.

That's incredibly disappointing. Given the trade growth between the two I just can't imagine why they wouldn't be expanding the frequencies. Well Air Canada better jump on it then and fill in the capacity voids.

I guess it does mean there will be a bit more room for non-Chinese Asian growth like Singapore or Asiana, as they will be able to pull some of the growth the Chinese airlines can't fill.

This sounds like a big win for airports like SEA or SFO though, as Chinese carriers will have no choice but to go there.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well unless I have remembered incorrectly the BKK was actually to Toronto, which makes limited sense.

Even if AC is planning YYZ - BKK, I understand Thai wants BKK-YVR abd BKK-SEA, which ought to even things out. Also, wasn't AC talking about YVR-SIN, (or YVR-SIN-BKK),
in which event there'd be no "imbalance," or am I wrong on that?

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

This sounds like a big win for airports like SEA or SFO though, as Chinese carriers will have no choice but to go there.

There is no frequency left for China-US either. Basically US only allowed 28x weekly of direct flight from secondary Chinese city to US, and it had been recently reallocated as follows:

5x Xiamen - LAX
4x Shenzhen - LAX
3x Chengdu - Nanjing - LAX
3x Chengdu - Hangzhou - LAX (will start with 2x weekly)
3x Chengdu - Jinan - LAX (will start with 2x weekly)

3x Kunming - Qingdao - SFO

4x Xiamen - Shenzhen - SEA (will start with 3x weekly)

3x Fuzhou - JFK

So other than LAX, every city is only getting 1 route each.

[LeftCoaster]

Hmm interesting, do you know if there is any momentum to add more capacity on the US-China bilateral?

If the US is at capacity it almost makes it more appealing to boost the Canadian as it would allow us to take some capacity that would otherwise be bound for those markets.

Either way incredibly frustrating that more capacity was not added, since clearly the demand is there.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well unless I have remembered incorrectly the BKK was actually to Toronto, which makes limited sense.

On paper a non-stop wouldn't make sense. the east coast of australia is closer to canada than SE asia with a good premium market but AC runs the non-stop from YVR, not YYZ. from SE asia, YYZ is ~ 2000 km further than YVR if it goes TPAC which would make for a long-ass flight.

Unless AC is thinking of a 5th freedom stop somewhere from YYZ to SE asia.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Hmm interesting, do you know if there is any momentum to add more capacity on the US-China bilateral?

The capacity for primary cities had been used up on the US side but still a few weekly left on the Chinese side, so the US may want to negotiate more capacity. In fact, both AA and DL wants to start daily LAX-PEK a while ago, but at that time there was only 7x weekly left on the US side.

The 28x weekly to secondary cities is all used up on the Chinese side but is hardly been used by the US.

There is an interesting article in Chinese that have a section about the upcoming CAN-YVR-MEX route. Here are some keys from the article:

• The route had now been delayed till Apr 2017
• The China-Canada bilateral allows 76 weekly flights by each side - 15 weekly is alloted to CZ
• Canada so far had not allow passenger to travel without visa for CAN-MEX. However, the last talk was in June, before the visa-free agreement between Canada and Mexico occurred later that month

I wonder if that 15x weekly for CZ is a typo... CZ currently only used 10x for YVR and YYZ... so there should be 5x weekly leftover??

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

I wonder if that 15x weekly for CZ is a typo... CZ currently only used 10x for YVR and YYZ... so there should be 5x weekly leftover??

The 15x week is correct. Remember the allotment includes cargo flights:

7x CAN-YVR-CAN
3x YVR-PVG (cargo)
3x CAN-YYZ-CAN
2x CAN-YVR-MEX-YVR-CAN

[LeftCoaster]

I wonder if there isn't a change in the allotments some of those cargo flights go passenger. Sending a 777 still holds a good chunk of cargo and could allow for some high yielding PAX.

Either way I really hope they add some more capacity, AC doesn't seem to want to fully utilize their China capacity so might as well let someone else fly the routes.