The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Freddypop]

Surprised at how low St John's numbers relative to the others

[Taeolas]

So I guess Nova Scotia's grown too big for our little Atlantic Canadian subforum.

Congratz on reaching 1 million!

Things are looking really good for the Maritimes, aside from the growing pains all these people bring with them. And apparently NS is already looking forward to 2 million by 2060. It seems ambitious, but not out of reach.

[q12]

^

Apparently we have hit 1,000,000 Nova Scotians!

News release
Nova Scotia Reaches One Million Population Milestone
Premier's Office
December 16, 2021 - 12:55 PM
Nova Scotia marks a major population milestone as the province surpasses one million people, following record growth since July 2021.

“Reaching the one million mark is a significant moment in our province’s history. After years of a declining population, the world is learning how special Nova Scotia is; we have momentum and are growing,” said Premier Tim Houston. “More people make us stronger in every way. We all benefit from this growth with a greater tax base, new businesses and jobs, greater diversity and culture and improved infrastructure. I ask our citizens, employers, communities, schools and workplaces to open their arms to new Nova Scotians and provide a warm welcome to all who choose our spectacular province as their home.”

A key priority for government, as identified in Ministers’ mandate letters, is economic growth. In collaboration across the government, with businesses, communities and other stakeholders, the Province is working to attract and retain more young people, entrepreneurs and skilled workers who deliver essential services such as healthcare, education and construction.

Immigration has played a large part in growing the population in Nova Scotia. The Department of Labour, Skills and Immigration continues to work with employers to find innovative ways to respond to current and emerging needs in occupations where there are shortages and help to streamline the immigration process.

To grow Nova Scotia’s population to two million by 2060, the Province aims to attract 25,000 newcomers per year through a combination of migration from other parts of Canada and strategic immigration efforts.

While Canada’s real-time population clock website is currently offline, Statistics Canada’s The Daily report for today, December 16, indicates Nova Scotia has surpassed one million.

Quotes:
Nova Scotia is steadily growing, and we want to encourage those living across the country and around the world to build a life in our beautiful province. With a growing population comes increased opportunities. Newcomers fuel our economy, fill labour gaps and enrich our communities. We look forward to welcoming new people to Nova Scotia with open arms and experiencing the benefits of newcomers in all parts of the province.
Jill Balser, Minister of Labour, Skills and Immigration
Since moving here from Israel in 2020, I've rejoiced again and again over the spectacular natural beauty that is literally around every corner in Nova Scotia. But most of all, I love the people here. They are sincere, kind, friendly, with a lot of sensitivity to others' emotions and a genuine willingness to help anyone. That is the real treasure of our province.
Bridgewater resident Sasha Raz
Quick Facts:
from January 1 to April 1, 2021, 5,696 people moved to Nova Scotia from other countries and other parts of Canada, and the province’s population grew by 2,877 – the largest increase in a first quarter since 1971
in 2020, the top five source countries for all landed newcomers to Nova Scotia were India, China, the Philippines, Korea and the United Kingdom
Nova Scotia’s current immigrant retention rate is 71 per cent, the highest in Atlantic Canada
the Province is preparing to launch a $2.5-million marketing initiative to support new provincial immigration and migration targets by attracting newcomers from across Canada

https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20211216003

Nova Scotia on its way to one million people
Close to one million people (998,832) were estimated to be living in Nova Scotia on October 1, 2021. Canada's
population clock (real-time model) now shows that Nova Scotia has more than one million people who call this
province home. This assumes that growth has continued to follow recent trends since October 1. Nova Scotia's
population growth in the third quarter of 2021 reached a record level due to both international and interprovincial
migration.

From stats Canada The Daily

[Taeolas]

So as I noted on the main Stats thread, NS is aiming for 2M by 2060.

IMO, to reach that, they're really going to have to focus on developing outside HRM and start growing the rest of the province.

CBRM/Sydney is one of the obvious growth areas. The city itself has turned around and has its own boom starting to take off. Hopefully they can concentrate that growth in Sydney a bit to push it over to CMA status for the boost that gives it.

Truro seems to be a good candidate for a 3rd city in the province. It's a hub city with a lot of connections already, so it should do well to grow to a City-status eventually. It won't quite be another Moncton, but it should do well.

Wolfville and Antigonish have strong universities anchoring them. Both towns are primed for more growth, especially if they can become university incubators.

Bridgewater seems like it is primed for growth as well, by virtue of being "Not Halifax", a chance for businesses and people to get out of the big city, while still getting city amenities.

New Glasgow may have some strong growth potential, due to Sobeys being headquartered there, but it may have trouble otherwise distinguishing itself from Truro and Antigonish.

Tertiary potential areas of growth I'd say would include Yarmouth (to anchor the south of the province), Amherst (probably stunted due to Moncton) and Port Hawksbury (may have some potential growth if/when the Canso Spaceport takes off)

[Smevo]

I'm in agreement with the post above, but will break it up on some sections I wanted to comment on.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

...

CBRM/Sydney is one of the obvious growth areas. The city itself has turned around and has its own boom starting to take off. Hopefully they can concentrate that growth in Sydney a bit to push it over to CMA status for the boost that gives it.

Yes, no question in my mind about this. It's too far away to benefit from the "critical mass" theory of centralizing all growth in Halifax. And it has definitely turned the apex of the corner it's been trying to navigate for the last 20 or so years.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Truro seems to be a good candidate for a 3rd city in the province. It's a hub city with a lot of connections already, so it should do well to grow to a City-status eventually.

Agreed.Truro already has momentum and is the 3rd largest centre in the province, so it's an obvious candidate. It's basically a scaled down Moncton, with being the hub of the province, and with how it blends seamlessly into some of the surrounding communities, namely Bible Hill and Valley. The big difference other than size is the concentrated Acadian population in Dieppe and parts of Moncton (yes, likely Brayons as well, though I'll be honest I still don't understand the significant difference other than people around Edmundston identifying as the latter instead of the former), and the stark contrast with the predominantly English Riverview. That helps Moncton with intra-provincial migration from struggling communities in Northern New Brunswick, but is much less of a factor in Nova Scotia.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Bridgewater seems like it is primed for growth as well, by virtue of being "Not Halifax", a chance for businesses and people to get out of the big city, while still getting city amenities.

...and Port Hawksbury (may have some potential growth if/when the Canso Spaceport takes off)

I remember doing a case study comparison at some point in grade school between these two towns because of similarities in size and history with industry. I don't remember specifics other than it mentioning how Bridgewater managed it's population growth fairly well when the Michelin plant came to town, and Port Hawkesbury struggled with the boom they experienced when the pulp mill came there. Both are candidates for growth in my opinion. I doubt either would experience a "boom", but one already has a history of managing fast growth well, and the other has hopefully learned from the past.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

New Glasgow may have some strong growth potential, due to Sobeys being headquartered there, but it may have trouble otherwise distinguishing itself from Truro and Antigonish.

Agreed about it's potential as it's a decent sized CA by NS standards that would probably benefit from amalgamation, though that's a different post perhaps for another time. Despite Antigonish having the university, and Truro being not too far the other way, I could see the New Glasgow area doing well in this plan if marketed correctly. Having the headquarters of a national grocery chain with multiple brands, including one industry giant they acquired a few years ago, definitely doesn't hurt New Glasgow's case. There's also a significant communications company headquartered in the area, unless they've been bought and are now owned by someone other than the Bragg family.

Let's be honest, there's enough to offer in each of these communities, with today's digital world and online entrepreneurship, that they all could benefit at a scale reasonable to their capacity if marketed correctly, regardless of how close they are to other centres.

Obviously there are still some other factors that will ultimately determine where people settle, access to health care services being an important example for a not insignificant portion of the population, where the larger centres will draw more people in as a result, especially around Halifax.

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by Freddypop

NB Municipal Reform - Adjusted boundaries

See attached for details of "tweaks" to the original white paper after provincial discussion with municipal leaders. Adjustments indicated in red. No further changes are expected.

https://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/...djustments.pdf

There has been some updates, but none of the ones really needed. Riverview should get lower Coverdale, and Sussex should be substantially bigger than just Sussex and Sussex Corner.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

There has been some updates, but none of the ones really needed. Riverview should get lower Coverdale, and Sussex should be substantially bigger than just Sussex and Sussex Corner.

Local center Sussex being smaller than Norton is an interesting decision.

Also, how did more Westfield wriggle out of being annexed by Grand Bay-Westfield? Like, put the whole west bank of the river in King's in the village and be done with it.

Kingston Peninsula could have been a small entity on its own. Not sure why it's carved up this way.

Anyone know why Chipman and Minto are so upset?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Bridgewater seems like it is primed for growth as well, by virtue of being "Not Halifax", a chance for businesses and people to get out of the big city, while still getting city amenities.

The south shore of NS arguably has the best climate outside of BC too, including decently warm summers in parts. Some of it is a little bit too far away but Bridgewater is a sweet spot for those who want a small town.

[MonctonRad]

And the LaHave River is one of the prettiest rivers in the Maritimes to boot.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Anyone know why Chipman and Minto are so upset?

Because the municipalities new name will be Mint-Chip.... But it probably has more to do with change being bad, than any real tangible reason.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Anyone know why Chipman and Minto are so upset?

Small towns like these always pride themselves on being distinct and different even if that perspective is far from reality. Call it a rivalry, call it small town differences, but they want to remain independent and distinct as much as they can. It's opinions like this that held back NB and its urban framework for decades - every small town thinking it should have a school, hospital, and every other tiny amenity that they think makes them bigger than they actually are regardless of whether or not it actually makes sense. Mergers like this have been needed for decades now.

[Taeolas]

It does feel needed for certain. But at the same time I can understand their reluctance to be fused like this. They are 25km apart with nothing really in between them. It's a half hour drive from one community to the other, which doesn't really lead to them feeling like a united community. The new fused town council will have to walk a tricky line to make sure the other half doesn't feel too left out going forward.

It would be akin to trying to combine Hartland and Florenceville together; the communities are similarly sized and similarly far apart. (Except Hartland and Florenceville are on the TCH so the connection is stronger)

I think ultimately the difference between Mint-Chip's situation vs similar cases on say in the river valley, is that there are a lot more people in the valley, making the villages there a bit more sustainable than the logging villages like Mint-Chip. So Hartland and Florenceville have a lot more around them to get to the critical mass to stay independent, while Minto and Chipman don't have enough people around them to stay separate.

[Pugsley]

Back in the 90s, when I was in university, I did a thesis on how NB could streamline their local government. The vision I presented was that a layer of 10-12 regional authorities should be created (think metro councils) which would manage all services, by-laws, and planning. However, within these would be council wards representing the former towns and villages once served by independent councillors. Each town and village would remain as independent places on the map and have a sense of community within, but they'd be a part of a broader government region. For "Mint-Chip", I suggested the broader Grand Lake region be called the "Lakes Region" with wards representing Chipman, Minto, Jemseg, etc. Services and planning would be done at the level of the regional authority but each town would become represented village and town wards with 1-2 councillors each.

To me, this was a better way to streamline government while keeping each town and village unique and the councillors representing their respective needs.

This is what Ontario and some states in the US have done. It is also common in the UK and Europe.

[JHikka]

NB did a halfway version of that with the regional commissions but didn't give them a ton of power and just created an additional bureaucratic level at the end of the day.

Ontario's amalgamations should serve as a cautionary tale. Both Ottawa and Toronto suffer from Saint John and Halifax-esque situations where they're too large and expansive for their own goods at the expense of their inner cores. Urbanites are outnumbered by people who live in suburbs or rural communities. It slows down city growth at the urban level.

[Freddypop]

Maritime Provinces continue to increase population due to inter-provincial migration/immigration

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...owth-1.6300145

[JHikka]

Jones just had to get that 'once shrinking Maritimes' in there in what is otherwise a good news story.

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Jones just had to get that 'once shrinking Maritimes' in there in what is otherwise a good news story.

Does anyone have any guesses for what the Population of the bigger 5 cities of the Maritimes (Freddy, Saint John, Moncton, Charlottetown, Halifax) would be in the next 5, 10, 20 years?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by bridgeoftea

Does anyone have any guesses for what the Population of the bigger 5 cities of the Maritimes (Freddy, Saint John, Moncton, Charlottetown, Halifax) would be in the next 5, 10, 20 years?

Any projections such as this would be fanciful, biased and inherently inaccurate, because circumstances leading to population change can change on a moments notice. A currently favoured city can suffer a body blow at any time, and this can affect future population projections significantly. CMA boundary changes can also factor in........

But, having said this, here goes:

Halifax (2020 CMA pop est. - 448,554) This CMA has recently added Hants East, adding another 25,000 people or so.
2025 (est) - 505,000, 2030 (est) - 580,000, 2040 (est) - 710,000

Moncton (2020 CMA pop est. - 158,695)
2025 (est) - 174,000, 2030 (est) - 190,000, 2040 (est) - 230,000

Saint John (2020 CMA pop est. - 131,772)
2025 (est) - 135,000, 2030 (est) - 141,000, 2040 (est) - 158,000

Fredericton (2020 CA pop est. - 111,024)
2025 (est) - 125,000, 2030 (est) - 140,000, 2040 (est) - 170,000

Charlottetown (2020 CA pop est. - 80,347)
2025 (est) - 95,000, 2030 (est) - 112,000, 2040 (est) - 138,000

So, in 2040, my personal unscientific predictions for the populations of these five cities will be:

Halifax - 710,000
Moncton - 230,000
Fredericton - 170,000
Saint John - 158,000
Charlottetown - 138,000

[jonny golden]

I think the influx of people moving from other parts of the country will be a big driver of population growth in our cities. There have been multiple articles in the news lately about this trend. The market for new housing in the cities is through the roof with many larger apartment buildings fully leased even before construction is complete. It will be a challenge for cities to properly manage the population growth that is and will be happening.

[Pugsley]

David Foot actually predicted this in his famous book on demographics: "Boom, Bust & Echo". In it, he said the Baby Boomers would start to move away from the cities at retirement and that the ocean or waterfront properties would be more attractive. He predicted a hollowing-out of central North America with population booms happening along the coasts.

So, perhaps we are seeing the early stages of this trend. I live in Saint Andrews and vacant lots here with water views are selling like hotcakes.

My bet is that we will see the cities with ample proximity to waterfront or ocean living being more attractive. Right now, Greater Halifax is seeing the most activity. However, I think rural areas on the South Shore of Nova Scotia, the coastal areas between Saint John and St. Stephen, and the Shediac and PEI coastal areas will be the most popular for baby boomers - as they are close to urban amenities yet offer the "retirement dream" baby boomers are seeking.