DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[BG918]

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

River Mile is the most interesting of the proposed new downtown area developments, will be interesting to see that one develop even though it may mean the loss of Elitch's.

Agree, that has the potential to be the most transformational area over the next decade. This will be a major construction zone in the 2024-2030 timeframe.

I also see the 41st & Fox area seeing a boom of new development in the next few years along with the lots south of Central Park Station.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Exciting to see more density come to RiNo. What neighborhood are you all interested to see develop post-COVID?

The upper portion of Arapahoe Square. It feels like this area will end up being the residential core of downtown that will enable the city to continue to thrive after we lose about 10-20% of the downtown workforce to permanent remote work.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Yeah I imagine that the downtown office crowd will decrease but, even if half of the planned units in Arapahoe Square and GT are built, the residential population in the urban core will skyrocket.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The upper portion of Arapahoe Square. It feels like this area will end up being the residential core of downtown that will enable the city to continue to thrive after we lose about 10-20% of the downtown workforce to permanent remote work.

I agree. After it was rezoned, I imagined what it might look like decades from now and realized, with its location, it has the potential to become Denver's "West End" (Vancouver).

River Mile is exciting too, but I have a feeling it's a very long ways off. And I also have a sneaky feeling market forces will morph it into something more mid-risey and not so high-risey like those dreamy renderings we've all seen.

I was also excited about Next Stage (DPAC), but now I have a feeling it's an even longer ways off or perhaps even dead altogether. That would be a great skyeline extender, and it - along with some future iteration of Bell Tower - would partially fill in the gap between the CBD and River Mile skylines.

[TakeFive]

By Default

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The upper portion of Arapahoe Square. It feels like this area will end up being the residential core of downtown that will enable the city to continue to thrive after we lose about 10-20% of the downtown workforce to permanent remote work.

Most of Arapahoe Square will be residential by default; what else would even go there? Nobody is interested in building office space there; consider the changing footprint for office development over the last decade (outside of the CBD) from Platte St to parts of RiNo. I don't see anyone building new hotel space other than maybe for an adaptive reuse niche.

Dreams of the Past

We have in the past wished for some type of park space combined with retail but it's hard to see that happening now. Perhaps there's a chance for something like McGregor Square or Writer Square which would be totally private (which would include an ability to control homeless). If only there were a vibrant market for condos?

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

I was also excited about Next Stage (DPAC), but now I have a feeling it's an even longer ways off or perhaps even dead altogether. That would be a great skyeline extender, and it - along with some future iteration of Bell Tower - would partially fill in the gap between the CBD and River Mile skylines.

One site I plum forgot about.

I suspect that you're right about any near term potential. There's too much land or sites that are readily available for similar uses that are lower hanging fruit.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Most of Arapahoe Square will be residential by default; what else would even go there? Nobody is interested in building office space there; consider the changing footprint for office development over the last decade (outside of the CBD) from Platte St to parts of RiNo. I don't see anyone building new hotel space other than maybe for an adaptive reuse niche.

More homeless camps of course.


Oh, and weed dispensaries.

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

More homeless camps of course.


Oh, and weed dispensaries.

i bet we can squeeze in a few yoga studios in there.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

More homeless camps of course.

Oh, and weed dispensaries.

AS deserves more density so only multi-stories of homeless encampments, please.

There is HELP on the way, or so they say.

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

i bet we can squeeze in a few yoga studios in there.

That's a definite; got to have eye candy.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

i bet we can squeeze in a few yoga studios in there.

Don't forget coffee and bougie brunch spots...

[EngiNerd]

That could be the new thing for 2021, a wellness hall like The Source that includes yoga studios, dispensaries, CBD shops, coffee shops, and homeless camps all under one roof.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

With it looking like the Democratic Party will control all of the federal government, do you think it is likely that there will be an infrastructure bill/FTA funding that will allow the remaining FasTracks lines to be funded and completed?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

With it looking like the Democratic Party will control all of the federal government, do you think it is likely that there will be an infrastructure bill/FTA funding that will allow the remaining FasTracks lines to be funded and completed?

Sure. There's probably a pork-laden stimulus bill coming down the pipeline that will include significant funding for state and local governments and a not so small infrastructure component.

Anyone want to take bets? $2T? $3T?

[TakeFive]

How quickly we forget - how tough it can be to pass legislation.

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

With it looking like the Democratic Party will control all of the federal government, do you think it is likely that there will be an infrastructure bill/FTA funding that will allow the remaining FasTracks lines to be funded and completed?

Under a Biden Team administration they will NOT get rid of the filibuster b/c "what goes around comes around" which means you need 60 votes in the Senate EXCEPT for one reconciliation bill per year which only needs a simple majority.

Also court appointments only need 51 votes which is why Merrick Garland can now become the next Attorney General; he can now be replaced on the D.C. Court of Appeals by Biden.

What RTD should do if possible
Given that RTD's current debt service requirements are the biggest drag on better service they could look to take a nice chunk - say $2 billion - pay down 25% of that and then refinance the balance of $1.5 billion.

With respect to extending rail service
First option is likely the SW Extension. They should also look at extending the B Line up to the new Westminster Downtown near U.S 36 & 88th Ave.

What will likely happen
Look for a nice pot of money specifically designated for buying electric buses. Look for American made Proterra buses to do very well.

[TakeFive]

NO PORK for you (unless you're talking sausage)

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Sure. There's probably a pork-laden stimulus bill coming down the pipeline that will include significant funding for state and local governments and a not so small infrastructure component.

Anyone want to take bets? $2T? $3T?

ONE TRILLION DOLLARS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE

This should be mostly non-controversial.

The Glamour piece of infrastructure will be

ELECTRIFICATION
The biggest pot outside of normal stuff (maybe as much as $250 billion) will go to electrifying transportation. Btw, the recently passed Stimulus included extending the tax bene's for wind and solar so that's already done. This is all about 'saving the environment.'

The objective will be to make 'public' charging stations ubiquitous. This is also where you'll see a big pot for transit agencies to buy electric buses. I could see public-private deals (with Walmart for example) to put in many electric charging stations at their stores or businesses.

With respect to other Stimulus, not sure it will amount to all that much. Maybe a little money for cities and states. You might see a pot for police training that would put more emphasis on de-escalation instead of shooting people for petty, minor offenses like happens now.

Look for some modest amounts of targeted COVID relief.

[Robert.hampton]

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...ver-logan.html

Looks like a developer called Crescent Communities has taken over 16th and Logan project from Carmel Partners. They have a fairly sharp project planned in Rino and the shift from PBA to Tryba suggests it will probably be a higher quality build than what Carmel was probably aiming for. Part of a national portfolio of 'Novel' branded projects.

In other uptown news there are development plans for 17th and Logan which would involve demolition of a one story building that burned badly last year. The RNO is considering opposing demolition of the building because of its storied history as--I kid you not--a dry cleaner.

[The Dirt]

The one story Wrangler/Psychedelic Ripple building? Good God. Which RNO? Uptown on the Hill?

[TakeFive]

Structured Parking is Not (necessarily) Inevitable

This beauty will have Zero parking

Originally Posted by rds70

Populus - 14th and Court Hotel/Apartments



Per the Denver Business Journal:

Admittedly with Hotels parking is less of a need and other hotels have included minimal parking.

What about apartments?

Edit at River North - 3433-3463 Walnut St.
This project has limited parking.


Image via Apartments.com

If you run over to DenverInfill you can see a nice Big photo of this under construction project (incl update). The Edit Apartments are being built by Zocalo Development. This project will have 382 units but only 233 structured parking spaces for who knows how many residents. Okay, it's a small step but progress is progress.

X Denver communities next project in Arapahoe Square was rumored to have no structured parking. Afaik, their current projects under construction have less parking than typical.

Why are you showing this project?


Photo via Zillow.com


Photo via ApartmentSearch.com

Camden Lincoln Station obviously has a great TOD location. To the best of my knowledge this is the only project in the whole metro area where the developer, Camden Properties invested lots of extra money in their structured parking so the space could later be converted to a different use other than parking.

The Motely Fool even featured this project in an article.

This apartment owner is putting up new buildings with garages built for the future. Someday people will be happily living in them -- really. Apartment landlord Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) has seen the future, and it believes that people will be living in garages.

That's a bit of hyperbole, of course, but not as much as you might think. That's because Camden prepared in advance so that converting a parking garage in Denver to living space would be easy. Here's why it has taken this step and why other property owners are doing the same thing -- despite the higher costs involved.

The rationale might be different from what you were thinking.

What do these REITs see ahead?

The driving force (pardon the pun) behind these garages is driverless cars. Companies like auto industry maverick Tesla and technology giant Alphabet, among others, are increasingly advancing the ability of cars to drive themselves.

And that will have a major impact on REITs like Camden, Hudson Pacific, and AvalonBay. The logic pushing their garage rethink is that tenants will eventually own fewer cars because they simply won't need them. Autonomous vehicles will take care of driving people around on an as-needed basis. But that future isn't here just yet, so garages are still a necessity, at least for a little while longer.

I would add that for TOD projects where tenants might have less need for their own car, the availability of Rideshare can enable many to live car-free.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

The one story Wrangler/Psychedelic Ripple building? Good God. Which RNO? Uptown on the Hill?

Yep and yep.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...ver-logan.html

Looks like a developer called Crescent Communities has taken over 16th and Logan project from Carmel Partners. They have a fairly sharp project planned in Rino and the shift from PBA to Tryba suggests it will probably be a higher quality build than what Carmel was probably aiming for. Part of a national portfolio of 'Novel' branded projects.

In other uptown news there are development plans for 17th and Logan which would involve demolition of a one story building that burned badly last year. The RNO is considering opposing demolition of the building because of its storied history as--I kid you not--a dry cleaner.

That would be great to see their Rino project at 40th & Walnut break ground. At 483 units it will be one of the larger (largest?) new apartment projects in Denver. And It will really shift Rino north once it’s complete. Any word on WTC across the street?

[bulldurhamer]

this movement against parking is pretty weird. if cars can be "clean", what's the big objection?

the reality is that electric cars are about to take over everything. they aren't going away, despite the crazy predictions otherwise. trains are sure to be obsolete, again, as well.

so instead of having places to park these clean vehicles, we're going to count on what? uber? we're happy to support an industry that has no worker protections for what?

eventually autonomous vehicles will take over and parking won't be needed, but that seems a little farther out. Parking being build now should always be made in a way to be converted to something else later anyway.

back to the point, what's the deal with getting rid of parking everywhere? i understand giant empty lots in central areas are silly, but what's wrong with decks? again, the global warming argument will be moot once these solar charged cars are in place.