Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

But, Changing, that's not "technically" a bedroom. You're looking at the marketing material not the approved drawings seen by Staff.

Even on the one-bed? It would be fascinating to see if there's any difference on the approved plans on the 2-bed, or whether it was called something else for permitting. I thought that the suburban municipalities were OK with the second bedroom having no direct light or window.

Even the BC Code that misher quoted said it 'generally requires every bedroom in a house and every bedroom in a small multi-family residential building to have an outside window that can be used as an emergency exit.' So apparently there are exceptions - and it also applies to houses and small multi-family residential'. As there are relatively very few of either, as most of our new housing is large multi-family, his point was pretty irrelevant anyway.

[GenWhy?]

My mistake, I was purely referencing Vancouver. We personally have not tried the in-board rooms outside Van, but I imagine they "require" indirect light, which is kinda the minimum many in Vancovuer are trying to secure. So picture forsted sliding glass panels, or slit windows near the ceiling. The 1-bedroom unit looks like it really stretched what was possible, looking at the "door" and "wall" design that opens to the balcony-side wall.

Typically I know of plans sent to the City and marketing material on that defines a "room" to be different in many cities in the Lower Mainland and Vancovuer itself. Designing "dens" in Van is very tricky now.

EDIT: I think outside Van you can do an interior bedroom with two "entrances", however you decide to design it. 2 doorways for instance. Would solve a lot of 3-bed design issues in Van. Feasibility, etc.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

My mistake, I was purely referencing Vancouver. We personally have not tried the in-board rooms outside Van, but I imagine they "require" indirect light, which is kinda the minimum many in Vancovuer are trying to secure. So picture forsted sliding glass panels, or slit windows near the ceiling. The 1-bedroom unit looks like it really stretched what was possible, looking at the "door" and "wall" design that opens to the balcony-side wall.

Typically I know of plans sent to the City and marketing material on that defines a "room" to be different in many cities in the Lower Mainland and Vancovuer itself. Designing "dens" in Van is very tricky now.

EDIT: I think outside Van you can do an interior bedroom with two "entrances", however you decide to design it. 2 doorways for instance. Would solve a lot of 3-bed design issues in Van. Feasibility, etc.

Indeed. I know on new build City of Vancouver don't like any inboard bedrooms without access to a window, but that's only just over a quarter of new housing starts in Metro - so there are many suburban municipalities that do allow them. Misher's statement is therefore inaccurate. Even in Vancouver, they've been allowed in buildings like 33 W Pender where they're effectively replicating the old warehouses and offices in massing, so there's not much they can do as an alternative arrangement, just like you find those layouts in warehouse conversions in Yaletown and on Beatty Street.

Thanks for the note about outdoor space - which I assume means a balcony is required on family housing above the main floor. That sounds entirely reasonable for that sort of housing (2 or more bedrooms) but presumably doesn't apply to the 1-bed units. Nearly 40% of the City's of Vancouver's population is a 1-person household, and slightly over 40% of the housing is a 1-bed unit. Any new units adding to that single bedroom stock may, or may not have a balcony, but as I understand it they're not required - it's the developer's choice (and market instincts).

[whatnext]

From CTV yesterday, Vancouver's condo market follows SFH into the crapper:

When detached homes in Metro Vancouver began dropping in price several years ago, condos seemed immune to the changing market – but not anymore.

New data from Royal LePage shows Metro Vancouver condominiums have sold for an average of $764 per square foot this year, an 8.3 per cent drop in the past seven months.

“Condos seemed almost indestructible,” said Vancouver realtor David Hutchison. “And now we're seeing condos following the detached declining market.”..

....In contrast to Vancouver, the Royal LePage report shows many other major Canadian cities have seen significant increases in condo prices this year.

Greater Toronto increased 9.1 per cent year-over-year to $743 per square foot
Greater Montreal increased 10.3 per cent to $362 per square foot
Greater Ottawa condos appreciated the most among Canada's largest cities, rising 17.9 per cent year-over-year to $395 per square foot
Western markets haven’t fared as well. The price per square foot for Greater Calgary condos fell 6.7 per cent year-over-year to $313. But Vancouver’s drop was the largest in Canada...

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/condo-listed-for-599k-sells-for-490k-as-prices-droop-in-vancouver-1.4569615

[misher]

Originally Posted by Changing City

As usual, you don't quote your sources, so there's no way of telling if it's up to date.

Here's the floorplan for a Brentwood 2-bed. See a window on the second bedroom?

[source: BC Condos]

Here's a 1-bed in Park Place in Surrey - any window? [source]



The City of Vancouver has its own Building Code, different from the BC code.

The link to my source is just above the quote.

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

From CTV yesterday, Vancouver's condo market follows SFH into the crapper:

When detached homes in Metro Vancouver began dropping in price several years ago, condos seemed immune to the changing market – but not anymore.

New data from Royal LePage shows Metro Vancouver condominiums have sold for an average of $764 per square foot this year, an 8.3 per cent drop in the past seven months.

“Condos seemed almost indestructible,” said Vancouver realtor David Hutchison. “And now we're seeing condos following the detached declining market.”..

....In contrast to Vancouver, the Royal LePage report shows many other major Canadian cities have seen significant increases in condo prices this year.

Greater Toronto increased 9.1 per cent year-over-year to $743 per square foot
Greater Montreal increased 10.3 per cent to $362 per square foot
Greater Ottawa condos appreciated the most among Canada's largest cities, rising 17.9 per cent year-over-year to $395 per square foot
Western markets haven’t fared as well. The price per square foot for Greater Calgary condos fell 6.7 per cent year-over-year to $313. But Vancouver’s drop was the largest in Canada...

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/condo-listed-for-599k-sells-for-490k-as-prices-droop-in-vancouver-1.4569615

Can’t look at averages when sales of the upper end slow but lower end move. I suspect the lower end of the market has seen little to no price movement.

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

https://guidelines.vancouver.ca/H004.pdf
4.3 Private Open Space
4.3.1 Objective: Ensure that each household has a private outdoor open space adjacent to its unit for its exclusive use.
4.3.2 Criteria: Each family unit should have a private open space which is a minimum of 1.8 m deep by 2.7 m wide.
The private open space should be designed to maximize sunlight access, safety, adaptability for a variety of family activities.
4.3.3 Discussion: The private open space should be able to accommodate a range of activities including sitting out, tending plants, barbecuing, outdoor eating, quiet children's play, and minor household maintenance. Provision of storage for this equipment is desirable.
Use of and satisfaction with private open space is dependent on its size, orientation, availability of sunlight, ease of access from the unit, ease of supervision, privacy, and safety.
Special design consideration should be given to the private outdoor areas of north facing units to maximize exposure to sunlight. Avoid recessed north facing private outdoor areas

So you just posted information proving you are wrong Genwhy? That is just a design guideline published by the city has nothing to do with anything. And for the floor design that is how the buildings are going to built. There is little to no change to floor design when marketing goes out. Also most strata bylaws prevent storage or any other use besides sitting on the balcony.

Also the need for egress is silly as over what 15 or so floors the ladder truck cant reach you.

The last 3 projects I have been on have had windowless bedrooms. This is not a new thing. As before they called them Dens as they did not have a closet. Then builders started adding closets so they were reclassified as a Bedroom

[GenWhy?]

Correct, just stating that it is not a "requirement" for all units, but for 2-3 bedroom units it's more of a requirement (hence the terminology "should"), in Vancouver, and a very very tough sell I've experienced to get relaxations on private outdoor space in exchange for larger common spaces when it comes to the "family units". Studios and 1-beds we've gotten away without providing balconies, but the common space is emphasized by Staff recommendation. Then again we've also had the opposite... depending on the Staff assigned and area of town and type of proejct. Go figure.

Some architects that think outside the box have been able to acheive this, but the battle and costs they twist into a project should not be the case but more of a checkbox of items like providing larger common spaces instead of private space in some circumstances. Brings costs down.

Projects I've seen add "bedrooms" in marketing material afterwards, in Vancouver. You have to design them in a sneakier way nowadays, however.

[whatnext]

This is bound to hit what remain of the offshore buyer markert from China:

China clamps down on capital flight risk as yuan weakens
Banks and real estate developers pressed to keep funds within the borders

YUSHO CHO, Nikkei staff writer
AUGUST 30, 2019 03:37 JST

As China allows the yuan to depreciate to a level not seen in 11 years, financial authorities have rolled out measures to stem capital outflows from the mainland.

The new rules include stricter oversight of banks in times of capital flight and restrictions on real estate developers' access to foreign currency bonds. If the financial system is judged to be on the brink on instability, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, will declare the situation "abnormal."..

...SAFE has also ordered lenders to request extra documentation before signing off on offshore remittances. If a parent wishes to pay school expenses for a student studying abroad, an acceptance letter must be presented. To transfer money for other reasons, documents such as a work permit must be furnished.

"Wiring money overseas is not allowed for the purposes of purchasing real estate or insurance products," said a representative at a second-tier Chinese bank....(bold mine)

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets...n-on-capital-flight-risk-as-yuan-weakens

[whatnext]

So I've heard August sales will come in about 15% above last year's dismal figures, but still off the ten year average by about the same amount. Still pretty sad when you consider Metro's economy is humming along nicely. How much worse will it get if the rumoured recession hits?

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So I've heard August sales will come in about 15% above last year's dismal figures, but still off the ten year average by about the same amount. Still pretty sad when you consider Metro's economy is humming along nicely. How much worse will it get if the rumoured recession hits?

Likely precise numbers will come out tomorrow but initial numbers seem to point to a significant price increase.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

Likely precise numbers will come out tomorrow but initial numbers seem to point to a significant price increase.

I'm sure you're right about the prices, and agent and real estate market commentator Steve Saretsky is wrong "The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is set to announce a 16% year-over-year increase in home sales for the month of August, a second consecutive year-over-year increase, albeit on slightly lower prices."

A 16% increase over August 2018 would be about 2,230 sales.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

I'm sure you're right about the prices, and agent and real estate market commentator Steve Saretsky is wrong "The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is set to announce a 16% year-over-year increase in home sales for the month of August, a second consecutive year-over-year increase, albeit on slightly lower prices."

A 16% increase over August 2018 would be about 2,230 sales.

Indeed.

As usual, openhousing.ca has some interesting examples, in this case recent condo flips gone wrong. No wonder flippers exited the market:

https://openhousing.ca/2019/08/27/scores-of-vancouver-condo-flips-headed-for-a-loss/

[misher]

Originally Posted by Changing City

I'm sure you're right about the prices, and agent and real estate market commentator Steve Saretsky is wrong "The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is set to announce a 16% year-over-year increase in home sales for the month of August, a second consecutive year-over-year increase, albeit on slightly lower prices."

A 16% increase over August 2018 would be about 2,230 sales.

I believe he meant prices were down from August 2018, I meant there up from July 2019. But my source isn't a reliable one so we will see.

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Indeed.

As usual, openhousing.ca has some interesting examples, in this case recent condo flips gone wrong. No wonder flippers exited the market:

https://openhousing.ca/2019/08/27/scores-of-vancouver-condo-flips-headed-for-a-loss/

List price isn't the same as sold price. Even back in 2017 this house went for a million less than list price, a lot of higher end property went for a lot less than the price listed back in 2016-2017:

http://westbridgegroup.ca/mylistings.htm...351-gibbons-dr-richmond-v7c-2c9.66410208

Its true prices are down, but its not an exact science to see how far down as a lot of the numbers are deceptive.

[whatnext]

You have to be particularly clueless to lead with this photo in your listing:

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2401137/3...vancouver-bc&search_type=property_browse

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

I believe he meant prices were down from August 2018, I meant there up from July 2019. But my source isn't a reliable one so we will see.

OK - we can see now. (they've got condo and attached prices switched in the article). "The number of homes sold in the Greater Vancouver area was up in August compared with a year ago, but benchmark prices for the major categories of housing was down, the region’s real estate board says.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says there were 2,231 home sales last month, up 15.7 per cent from 1,929 in August 2018.
However, it says the benchmark price for 706 detached homes sold in August was $1.4 million, down 9.8 per cent from the same month last year."

So fewer sales in August than July (but that's normal) and more than last year (which was dire). And prices are continuing to fall for houses, and have been flat for apartments for the whole of 2019, having fallen about 8% from a year ago.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Changing City

OK - we can see now. (they've got condo and attached prices switched in the article). "The number of homes sold in the Greater Vancouver area was up in August compared with a year ago, but benchmark prices for the major categories of housing was down, the region’s real estate board says.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says there were 2,231 home sales last month, up 15.7 per cent from 1,929 in August 2018.
However, it says the benchmark price for 706 detached homes sold in August was $1.4 million, down 9.8 per cent from the same month last year."

So fewer sales in August than July (but that's normal) and more than last year (which was dire). And prices are continuing to fall for houses, and have been flat for apartments for the whole of 2019, having fallen about 8% from a year ago.

Average price was down 0.4% from July 2019 so I was wrong.

[nds88]

August condos and townhomes are up very slightly compared to July......

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,116 in August 2019, an 8.9 per cent increase compared to the 1,025 sales in August 2018. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $771,000. This represents a 7.4 percent decrease from August 2018 and a 0.1 per cent increase compared to July 2019.

Attached home sales in August 2019 totalled 409, a 21.4 per cent increase compared to the 337 sales in August 2018. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $654,000. This represents a 7.8 percent decrease from August 2018, a 0.2 per cent increase compared to July 2019.

[misher]

Originally Posted by nds88

August condos and townhomes are up very slightly compared to July......

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,116 in August 2019, an 8.9 per cent increase compared to the 1,025 sales in August 2018. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $771,000. This represents a 7.4 percent decrease from August 2018 and a 0.1 per cent increase compared to July 2019.

Attached home sales in August 2019 totalled 409, a 21.4 per cent increase compared to the 337 sales in August 2018. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $654,000. This represents a 7.8 percent decrease from August 2018, a 0.2 per cent increase compared to July 2019.

Missed that thanks, I guess I should go read the whole report. Interesting that detached dragged it down despite being quite a bit up from Aug 2018.