Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

It's pretty interesting that our election will be taking place at roughly the same time as the US Presidential election... and I wonder that extra interest in politics could impact people's vote choices.

A lot of Blaine Higgs's far right base probably loves Trump, but many centrist PC voters don't like him at all... since there's not a huge difference between the NB Liberals and the PC's, I think many people who voted PC last time, but don't care for the social conservatism issues trans rights in public schools that Higgs seems to want to make the election about, will vote for Holt's Liberals.

If Holt and her term take the adage of James Carville seriously that "it's the economy stupid", and take inspiration from "the war room" campaign that won the Presidency for Clinton in 1992... I think Holt and the Liberals will win a solid majority.

They just really need to stick to the issues that people care about the most, and don't let Higgs dictate the issues that should decide the next election.

For the most part, I think she and her party have done a pretty good job to not get sucked into Higgs's plan to make the campaign about divisive social issues, and his attempts to label her as a "Trudeau Liberal" aren't really sticking. I still think they could still improve upon the messaging surrounding their party's platform, better communicate in simpler terms what their party stands for, and clarify what really differentiates them from both the PC's and Greens.

Imo, it's her election to lose at this point... many New Brunswickers want a change and have become disillusioned with Higgs.

I think a Liberal Minority supported by the Greens is still our best chance for more substantive, positive changes in the province, but I think a minority scenario is unlikely to happen, as they are extremely rare at the provincial level, especially in smaller provinces like NB. Would sure be a spectacle to watch unfold, though!

[sailor734]

Holt also has to deal with the fact that any government she forms will have a disproportionately large number of Francophone MLA's.

I certainly wouldn't put it past Higgs and his handlers to employ some dog whistle "anti Acadian/UdM Mafia"/remember Gallant" type politics. For some in NB the Anglo/French divide is very real and the perceived grievances are never far from the surface. Painting Holt as another Gallant who would be under the influence of the SANB could well resonate with these voters.

Having said that I think there is a good chance Higgs has moved too far right for enough moderate PC's that he may well go down to defeat.

It really depends on if his base support is spread out among enough southern and western ridings.

Interesting times for political junkies.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Wondering if the Toronto By election results are changing how you look at some of the (supposedly) safe or likely Liberal ridings in the Maritimes? CPC won by just over 1.5% while polling going into the vote had them behind by something like 4 or 5 points. Shy Liberals?

Moncton-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche maybe (both had CPC MPs under Harper, albeit when the former included Riverview), Beausejour and Acadie-Bathurst, never.

PEI is a black box, who knows what'll happen there. No point in discussing PEI seats until they vote.

Cape Spear and Halifax West?

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Moncton-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche maybe (both had CPC MPs under Harper, albeit when the former included Riverview), Beausejour and Acadie-Bathurst, never.

PEI is a black box, who knows what'll happen there. No point in discussing PEI seats until they vote.

Cape Spear and Halifax West?

NDP might have a shot in Halifax and St. John's East.

I'm actually kind of surprised the Liberal unpopularity hasn't resulted in more NDP support. I guess there is absolutely no doubt that Jagmeet Singh is no Jack Layton.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I'm actually kind of surprised the Liberal unpopularity hasn't resulted in more NDP support. I guess there is absolutely no doubt that Jagmeet Singh is no Jack Layton.

Many Liberals are centrists, and would throw up in their mouths a little if they ever contemplated a vote for Jagmeet.

The NDP influenced leftward drift of the Liberal party is causing many centrists great discomfort. This is why centrist Liberals are contemplating a vote for the CPC instead.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Moncton-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche maybe (both had CPC MPs under Harper, albeit when the former included Riverview), Beausejour and Acadie-Bathurst, never.

PEI is a black box, who knows what'll happen there. No point in discussing PEI seats until they vote.

Cape Spear and Halifax West?

Cape Spear I would think is still relatively safe for the Liberals once you consider Seamus' personal likability among residents.

St. John's East on the other hand....the CPC have a fairly popular nominee in Dave Brazil. That could end up being a tight three-way race.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Cape Spear I would think is still relatively safe for the Liberals once you consider Seamus' personal likability among residents.

St. John's East on the other hand....the CPC have a fairly popular nominee in Dave Brazil. That could end up being a tight three-way race.

I think you make a good point. The Liberals still standing after the next election with either be in seats that would elect a fence post if it was painted red or MP's who are very good at retail politics and have a very strong personal appeal.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Holt also has to deal with the fact that any government she forms will have a disproportionately large number of Francophone MLA's.

I certainly wouldn't put it past Higgs and his handlers to employ some dog whistle "anti Acadian/UdM Mafia"/remember Gallant" type politics. For some in NB the Anglo/French divide is very real and the perceived grievances are never far from the surface. Painting Holt as another Gallant who would be under the influence of the SANB could well resonate with these voters.

Having said that I think there is a good chance Higgs has moved too far right for enough moderate PC's that he may well go down to defeat.

It really depends on if his base support is spread out among enough southern and western ridings.

Interesting times for political junkies.

He's already trying to paint her a crucial figure in the Gallant government, which she just absoutely wasn't.

If a majority of Saint John voters let the MLA from Quispamsis dupe them into voting for his party again with those dog whistles, when he clearly doesn't give a crap about our city... it'll just be a sad reflection of how easily some people willingly vote against their own self interest, because *derp* the French! I think bilingualism really can be a bit much sometimes, especially here in 95% anglophone Saint John

But has Higgs really done anything to lessen impacts of it in terms of applying for government jobs, etc? Afiak, he really hasn't done anything in that regard, and the province is every bit as bilingual under Higgs as it was under Gallant.

Will definitely be a very interesting election. Hopefully, retro 2018, to make it REALLY interesting

[NB_ExistsToo]

It's just going to come down to what usually happens, people won't be voting for Liberals, they'll be voting against Higgs. I think Higgs should have pushed the election last year when he hinted at it, I figure he would have had a good chance at another majority then.

Now by the time elections start, he's going to have to deal the traveling nurse contract "he/she said" blame game. Then I imagine the Fredericton Judicial costs will come out, which is going to be more expensive, the question is, how much more compared to when he first cancelled the project?

[lirette]

Gary Crossman has endorsed John Herron and will vote Liberal. The moderates want nothing to do with Faytene.

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by lirette

Gary Crossman has endorsed John Herron and will vote Liberal. The moderates want nothing to do with Faytene.

Speaking of Faytene ... Higgs seems to be surrounding himself with another popular "pastor" ... although I am not sure if this one speaks in tongues .

[darkharbour]

If Blaine is being in any way advised by Phil Hutchings we need to get rid of him ASAP.

[MonctonRad]

Higgs pandering to the fundamentalist fringe causes me great discomfort, but, then I look at the other alternative and all I see is a female version of Shawn Graham who is also a JT acolyte.

We are so friggin' screwed in the upcoming election..........

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Higgs pandering to the fundamentalist fringe causes me great discomfort, but, then I look at the other alternative and all I see is a female version of Shawn Graham who is also a JT acolyte.

We are so friggin' screwed in the upcoming election..........

^ Sums it up nicely. AKA "NWVF" (Nobody Worth Voting For)

I see my choices as the all new "alt right" style Higgs' PC Party or a repeat of a Gallant/Graham style Liberal government. I honestly don't know which is worse.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Higgs pandering to the fundamentalist fringe causes me great discomfort, but, then I look at the other alternative and all I see is a female version of Shawn Graham who is also a JT acolyte.

We are so friggin' screwed in the upcoming election..........

What makes you think Susan Holt is a JT acolyte?

Such a dismal, misinformed take.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

^ Sums it up nicely. AKA "NWVF" (Nobody Worth Voting For)

I see my choices as the all new "alt right" style Higgs' PC Party or a repeat of a Gallant/Graham style Liberal government. I honestly don't know which is worse.

You really don’t know which would be worse? Even if that summary of Holt’s Liberal Party (which I really don’t think it is) it’s still abundantly clear which would be the better choice.

[Taeolas]

Higgs basically has a lot of the same general problems Justin has... He's been in charge long enough that he's starting to smell. He may not quite stink enough that Holt could run an "I don't know what to do" campaign and win, but as long as she gets a campaign that sounds nice, she should have a good chance of catching the "Anyone But Higgs" vote and winning.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

What makes you think Susan Holt is a JT acolyte?

Such a dismal, misinformed take.

I've watched abit of Susan in long form interviews. Other than Higgs campaign managers rhetoric about the subject I really don't see how you could see her as someone who is similar to JT. She comes across as a moderate liberal at least to me. Obviously we don't know how she'll govern but the other option is someone's who closer to trying to put the 10 commandants back in school than being a pragmatic and moderate politician.

Shes managed budgets at big companies and has a background in economics. Shes showing a willingness to tour the entire province and talk to voters. (Higgs is hiding away spending time with people like Hutchings). Having worked in several corporations she comes across as someone you'd often see in upper management or CEO roles. People are going to try and paint her as a socialist or whatever but she's probably not that far off from the old Progressive Conservative party. Shes someone who could work in a bi-partisan way with the Daniel Allain types.

You are probably going to get a bit more spending with Holt but I think she could be quite popular if the spending is in the right areas. Focus the spending on infrastructure, healthcare and education and housing and most people will generally agree with that.

Worst case scenario with her is probably a Tim Houston type politician with a bit more spending.

[sailor734]

Hope you’re right. I just worry about the SANB/UdM back room types coming out of the woodwork and running the party like the Gallant and Graham days.

Would almost take Higgs’ right wing social ideology over that (Almost) ������

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Hope you’re right. I just worry about the SANB/UdM back room types coming out of the woodwork and running the party like the Gallant and Graham days.

Would almost take Higgs’ right wing social ideology over that (Almost) ������

If the Libs ever want to gain any permanent traction with the anglophones in the province (the majority of the province) they will have to kick the SANB pandering. Otherwise they will resign themselves to "the party that we elect when we need a brief break from the Cons". Gallant and Graham were brutal and did so little of value. They really hurt the liberal brand. Like him or not at least Higgs stopped changed the financial hemorrhage narrative as promised (we can argue about methods).

Honestly I believe that if the cons were running anyone else they would be well on their way to another win but Higgs sticking around will make things more interesting.