Federal Government & Politics II

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Polls show a tie between Libs and Cons so I guess it will depend on turnout which is unpredictable in a byelection.

The Cons could definitely take it.

I completely agree.

Toronto-St.Paul's is a Liberal stronghold in a bastion of a Liberal city so I could see the Liberals being ahead in any poll but the issue is how motivated those Liberal voters are. The reality is that a sizeable proportion of Liberal supporters want Trudeau to step down and know that losing this seat maybe enough to force his resignation. They may not vote Tory in the next election but at the same time they know that with Trudeau at the helm the next election will be a PP landslide. They want to send a message to the Liberal Party brass that Trudeau must go and while probably not voting for the Conservatives they will engage in a protest vote by simply sitting this one out.

Conversely, the Tories are eager to win this seat and Tory supporters are hardcore and will get their vote out and winning a bastion Liberal seat would be a massive psychological win and put the fear of God into every Liberal MP even in those once considered safe ridings. Even a slim Liberal win would cause the mumblings of ousting Trudeau to become a roar as these MPs know that if Trudeau stays on, they are going to be joining the ranks of the unemployed in just over a year.

[Bcasey25raptor]

If Pierre slashes immigration I may vote for him over that alone.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Well yeah. Him doing this is brand new. I'm sure one of his staffers slipped him some of these articles.

I wonder if his platform includes giving Quebec full control/drastically cut their immigration. I guess consitituionally he could say if you move to Quebec you won't get PR credit time or really use the notwithstanding clause to make you inelegible for federal benefits if you move or have some other penalty.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I wonder if his platform includes giving Quebec full control/drastically cut their immigration. I guess consitituionally he could say if you move to Quebec you won't get PR credit time or really use the notwithstanding clause to make you inelegible for federal benefits if you move or have some other penalty.

PP is likely to be politically short sighted, reckless and undisciplined. However support the use of the notwithstanding clause is unthinkable. I don't think even he would go there.

Canada has free movement of people domestically. Setting up border controls around the provinces would be insane.

The liberals have already slashed student immigration. It is just takes time for those in the pipeline to work their way through.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

If Pierre slashes immigration I may vote for him over that alone.

I don’t trust he will actually follow through. The money behind both parties seemingly profits off the status quo. The weaknesses in our economy Trudeau is trying to hide through immigration will also become more salient. Will he risk that?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

PP is likely to be politically short sighted, reckless and undisciplined. However support the use of the notwithstanding clause is unthinkable. I don't think even he would go there.

Canada has free movement of people domestically. Setting up border controls around the provinces would be insane.

The liberals have already slashed student immigration. It is just takes time for those in the pipeline to work their way through.

Section 6 applies to Permanent Residents and citizens. It does not apply to students, TFWs, tourists, asylum seekers, etc.

[Innsertnamehere]

My bet is he’ll whack immigration back to Harper-era levels.

He’s likely trying to be careful about messaging on it to not be labelled “anti immigration” by the Liberals and portrayed as “hard right” in the media which is not a good look - but has to put out enough vague references as he needs to convey that he won’t continue current patterns either.

Which honestly, I think is where most Canadians are at. I think most of us are still supportive of the immigration model and acknowledge it’s benefits - the dial on it has just been turned too far and needs to be brought back down to sane levels.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by casper

The liberals have already slashed student immigration. It is just takes time for those in the pipeline to work their way through.

The Liberals only slashed it from their ridiculously high and reckless high mark. If the public didn't turn against them, Sean Fraser and Marc Miller would happy crank up the international student quota and keep the music going. The Liberals have been absolutely politically short sighted, reckless and undisciplined on this file. At the end of the day, it's still much higher than pre-COVID quotas even with the slashing.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Interesting timing of this outage from a cybersecurity attack, given the US jacking up tariffs on Chinese EVs....

Reported as a ransomware attack believed to be of eastern European origin.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

My bet is he’ll whack immigration back to Harper-era levels.

He’s likely trying to be careful about messaging on it to not be labelled “anti immigration” by the Liberals and portrayed as “hard right” in the media which is not a good look - but has to put out enough vague references as he needs to convey that he won’t continue current patterns either.

Which honestly, I think is where most Canadians are at. I think most of us are still supportive of the immigration model and acknowledge it’s benefits - the dial on it has just been turned too far and needs to be brought back down to sane levels.

I think the messaging will be “we will return immigration to Harper-era levels.”

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think the messaging will be “we will return immigration to Harper-era levels.”

That's very likely insuffficent and allows a lot of fudge on Student numbers. We can also expect a surge in family reunification as the waves of fake students who are mostly male discover the love of their life without having met and sponsor them to come over. But yes hoping for a miracle of immigration slash leading to a surge in affordabilty in the housing market Boomer landlords be damned is naive at best.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by casper

PP is likely to be politically short sighted, reckless and undisciplined. However support the use of the notwithstanding clause is unthinkable. I don't think even he would go there.

Canada has free movement of people domestically. Setting up border controls around the provinces would be insane.

The liberals have already slashed student immigration. It is just takes time for those in the pipeline to work their way through.

The free movement section of the Charter is one of the bits that can't be overriden with the notwithstanding clause.

That said, I think you're wrong that the NWC is some nuclear option. Many provinces have used it recently. I'm confident PP will use it to reinstate Harper's tough-on-crime laws.

The NWC is part of the constitution. It's a valid thing to use.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Section 6 applies to Permanent Residents and citizens. It does not apply to students, TFWs, tourists, asylum seekers, etc.

Until the activist judges make some more shit up and change Section 6 to include foreign residents.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That's very likely insuffficent and allows a lot of fudge on Student numbers. We can also expect a surge in family reunification as the waves of fake students who are mostly male discover the love of their life without having met and sponsor them to come over. But yes hoping for a miracle of immigration slash leading to a surge in affordabilty in the housing market Boomer landlords be damned is naive at best.

Spousal sponsorship in Canada is not automatic. You can't just instantly get a visa by marrying a Canadian. You have to go through an interview and assessment process to determine if the relationship is genuine & not done solely for immigration purposes to get a spousal visa. It's pretty rigorous. I have family members who married foreigners and went through that process.

[Hackslack]

Not sure why so many Canadians are upset with the Liberals drastically increasing taxing share of capitals gains. They actively campaigned on it. They made it a promise to drastically increase taxes on capital gains in the last election. This incredibly important issue that the citizens of the country most absolutely know of and voted on should and was communicated in the liberals last campaign.

Just like the liberals made it absolutely clear back in 2015 that they WILL run massive deficits and WILL open the door wide open for immigration… and they got a majority from it!

Good thing that the Liberals not only won the most seats I. The last two elections, they drastically won the popular vote, frum coast ta coast ta coast

If ya say it nuff times da people will stat ta believe it

Dey ain’t nuttin like a good’ol socialist movement propped up by da far left, makin da people reliant on da govenment… amirite

I mean… when are we gonna see a law put in place to prevent doomsday greenies from completely fabricating the truth of the consequences from taking 10 hour road trips in the summer and therefore scorching the earth!! I see an anti-green washing law getting put in place, hopefully the same is put in place for the greenie liars too.

All hail the Liberals!

[casper]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The free movement section of the Charter is one of the bits that can't be overriden with the notwithstanding clause.

That said, I think you're wrong that the NWC is some nuclear option. Many provinces have used it recently. I'm confident PP will use it to reinstate Harper's tough-on-crime laws.

The NWC is part of the constitution. It's a valid thing to use.

I think every use of it by a provincial government has been controversial and history will find to be have been a mistake.

We already do a reasonable job of putting and keeping violent criminals in jail. Anything the conservatives do on that front is smoke and mirrors. I would agree, with you that I would not put it past PP to follow through on conservative tough-on-crime principles. Locking up drug addicts and those who are suffering from mental health may well be supported by his base, but it is not clear how that helps us a society overal.

As for free movement of people. The mechanics of implementing controls on travel before provinces is an administrative nightmare. I don't think we are going there as country any time soon.

[ssiguy]

I don't think PP would even dream about going after the mentally ill and he would find such a proposal morally repugnant. I also don't think he would even go after drug addicts. This Liberal propaganda that anyone even marginally right of centre doesn't give a damn about the plight of their follow citizens has to end.

He will, however, go after drug dealers big time and will increase their sentences and reduce their ability to get early parole. He will not only increase prison time but even more importantly, increase minimum sentences so you don't get these inept judges giving out ridiculously short sentences. This would be very well received by the bulk of Canadians who tend to feel bad for our poor addicts who have been taken advantage of as opposed to the dealers who everyone wishes would be thrown in jail and have the key tossed.

He would bolster this by really clamping down on money laundering which Canada desperately needs as we are, quite rightfully, seen as a money laundering pit. While he would loosen our gun laws he will simultaneously increase minimum sentences for any crime committed with a gun.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Not sure why so many Canadians are upset with the Liberals drastically increasing taxing share of capitals gains. They actively campaigned on it. They made it a promise to drastically increase taxes on capital gains in the last election. This incredibly important issue that the citizens of the country most absolutely know of and voted on should and was communicated in the liberals last campaign.

Just like the liberals made it absolutely clear back in 2015 that they WILL run massive deficits and WILL open the door wide open for immigration… and they got a majority from it!

Good thing that the Liberals not only won the most seats I. The last two elections, they drastically won the popular vote, frum coast ta coast ta coast

If ya say it nuff times da people will stat ta believe it

Don’t forget their flagship 2015 promise that all future elections would be winner-takes-all FPTP, if they got elected!

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Both these interventions are to keep Chinese EVs out and not have our auto industry (90% exports) fall behind. Sorry, not sorry, that the government simply didn't let Southern Ontario become a rustbelt.

The majority of the jobs go to Canadian workers. People are making a mountain out of a mole hill over some home country expertise those companies brought here. How many Canadians have experience building multi-billion dollar battery plants before this?

This is what the interventionists/protectionists want to prevent us from being able to buy:

China's BYD New Hybrid Cars: Ultra-Long 2000 km Range for Under $14,000

https://youtu.be/GPmQo5c505I?si=_N25f4l6lu94SxBS

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Build.It

This is what the interventionists/protectionists want to prevent us from being able to buy:

China's BYD New Hybrid Cars: Ultra-Long 2000 km Range for Under $14,000

https://youtu.be/GPmQo5c505I?si=_N25f4l6lu94SxBS

Proud to be one of those protectionists in this case. When China allows competition on a fair playing field I'll change my mind.

That said, it is unfortunate that we haven't forced our industry to compete because way too many people got wrapped up in EVs being part of the culture wars and not seeing the industrial threat.