DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

It's not just insurance rates but rather why the insurance rates have been so punitive. If you develop a larger project lawyers can have a party trying to eat your shorts. It's their contingency fees that benefit only them that make the risk unattractive in a market where there's no shortage of alternative investments.

I recently read (somewhere) that insurance adds about $15,000 per unit. How much of that was bcuz of litigation risk wasn't defined.

Pre-recession the mortgage industry was indeed freewheeling but we've also had non-freewheeling markets where condos sold just fine.

Can't speak specifically to how condos might pencil but those that are being built seem to be selling quickly. Buying of course gives one ownership of a potentially appreciating asset with fixed P&I payments (assuming a fixed rate mortgage).



Couple of issues with that study. It's rather dated at this point. While dated through part of 2013 the data goes back to 2000/2003 and too much has changed since the recession.

But bunt is absolutely correct that it boils down to politics and special interests (on both sides). That's not to say there aren't rational (sounding) arguments on each side. Such is the nature of politics. I could counter your own points and back and forth we could go.

Sometimes it's best to pull away from the noise and look at the bigger picture. How 'bout we take a more common sense and rational approach that merely levels the playing field with other cities where the litigation risk is normal or sane and then let the market do what it wants to do?

Only referenced that study because Bunt mentioned it and was so vehement that it is the smoking gun. Inconclusive at best.

How many of these other peer cities that we want to compare ourselves to had a Beauvallon?

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I'm sure it's the growing curmudgeon side of me as opposed to the still barely clinging to my historical liberal roots that has become tired of the incessant need to divide us along racial lines. Arguments may indeed have merit but they can become a little conspiracy sounding in the name of a good cause as well. Whatever happened 100 years ago isn't all that relevant towards determining what good policy is today. That also can apply to the 'religion' of urbanism.

EDIT: I can see how the racial history could be used manipulatively, but I think it's still relevant in understanding how we arrived at our current pattern of organizing cities.

Originally Posted by RyanD

So 1144 is going to be pretty awesome and gap-filling from this Cherry Creek angle!

Is this location accessible to the public? Garage?

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

Is this location accessible to the public? Garage?

That photo was taken off the roof of 250 Columbine (I had a photo shoot there) so sadly no.

But there are plenty of garages that will give you access to a similar view.

By the Whole Foods / Above Wells Fargo on 2nd Ave:



US Bank garage:



Fillmore Plaza garage:

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

Only referenced that study because Bunt mentioned it and was so vehement that it is the smoking gun. Inconclusive at best.

And I agreed that the study is moot for a couple of reasons.

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

How many of these other peer cities that we want to compare ourselves to had a Beauvallon?

I have no idea. Couple of things.

This is a marvelous example of political/special interests from either side but often from the left, who, with good intent end up making a much bigger mess with their fix. Think killing a fly with a sledge hammer. In legal circles it's called "The Law of Unintended Consequences."

Let's assume that other cities haven't had the same issues. Does that mean that Denver needed to turn over the money bags to a merry band of money changers? We've seen what that has accomplished. Have other cities done the same? No, I think not. So instead of penalizing and paralyzing the vast majority of professional developers for the sins of one or two let's instead look at how preventing future bad apples can be addressed in a manner that doesn't obliterate everything.

Hopefully this whole line of discussion is moot given the recent court case post by bunt. My point is that upon reflection over time I've observed problems being actually made much worse under the guise of good intentions.

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

EDIT: I can see how the racial history could be used manipulatively, but I think it's still relevant in understanding how we arrived at our current pattern of organizing cities.

I can agree. It is both interesting and "potentially" useful. Any understanding is a good not a bad thing. I intended no personal animus at you as 45 years ago I was on the front lines of such issues. But today's policy shouldn't particularly be determined just bcuz of any jaded history.

I've certainly made comments about the benefits of diversity and affordability. Interestingly though, there are specific "designated" affordable projects, even if not fully adequate.

Going to a valid point that The Dirt made it's the whole condo defects mess that has been a much bigger impediment to "regular guy" condo product than zoning. I would acknowledge though that the challenge for downtown condo projects is more complicated than simply the condo defects mess. But we could easily move out along the transit lines where it clearly makes a difference.

[TakeFive]

RyanD... THAT 2ND SHOT. While it may disguise the density of downtown, I just like it.

[Curtis Park]

Originally Posted by comoneymaker

When we hit 500 it will be time to start a new thread. Long over due.

500 what?
Fathoms?
Degrees?
Batting Average?
Laps?
Prayers?
Likes?
Examples?
People?
Characters?
Emoticons?
MPH?
Gigawatts?

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by RyanD

That photo was taken off the roof of 250 Columbine (I had a photo shoot there) so sadly no.

But there are plenty of garages that will give you access to a similar view.

Rad. Thanks.

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I can agree. It is both interesting and "potentially" useful. Any understanding is a good not a bad thing. I intended no personal animus at you as 45 years ago I was on the front lines of such issues. But today's policy shouldn't particularly be determined just bcuz of any jaded history.

Cheers.

[TakeFive]

BTW, RyanD officially announced the unofficial move and serious intent to officially have a ground breaking for the Alexan Arapahoe Square at Denver Infill. Partly it's the fence that's now present.


Rendering courtesy of Kephart via Denver Infill

Isn't she nice - to know that all that parking is going bye bye.

[EngiNerd]

Another SS Alexan coming downtown. I honestly don't have any real problem with them, but man, are they all so damn similar.

[DownhomeDenver]

Who mentioned Portland? Was just there for a week, debating possible relocation, what an amazing city. Gorgeous architecture. Lots of infill. Well maintained. Horrible suck ass traffic. Awesome transportation system. Horrible drivers. Weather was good while I was there, but won't stay like that for long. But, overall, very impressed and may end up leaving Denver behind.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by DownhomeDenver

Who mentioned Portland? Was just there for a week, debating possible relocation, what an amazing city. Gorgeous architecture. Lots of infill. Well maintained. Horrible suck ass traffic. Awesome transportation system. Horrible drivers. Weather was good while I was there, but won't stay like that for long. But, overall, very impressed and may end up leaving Denver behind.

Then you might enjoy one of the better development stories I've come across this year. What's neato is that it's in Vimeo video.

[RyanD]

Country Club Towers:

The glass pictures were from my phone because it was raining and my phone is more water resistant than my camera. I'll eventually get back out there and take some nice pictures.

It's like 2 [blocky] Confluence's rising up.


http://denverinfill.com/blog/2016/08/speer-country-club-towers-update-5.html


http://denverinfill.com/blog/2016/08/speer-country-club-towers-update-5.html

[TakeFive]

Hump Day Hiccups
The more I worry the more I learn I needn't... or should I?

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

and this is before we get the moonshot of rental inventory that is coming.

I enjoyed your choice of words and it's apt for today.


Brian Cason who is Chief investment officer for BMC Investments, Denver, recently penned an interesting piece that was featured in the August 2016 issue of Multifamily Properties Quarterly, Colorado Real Estate Journal.

Brian uses a baseball analogy to discuss what inning of the current building cycle we're in and if your memory is sharp it's the same analogy and discussion that occurred last summer.

"This finance game is different"
August by Brian Cashman - Colorado Real Estate Journal

If you are anywhere near the real estate industry, you probably hear your colleagues talking baseball with increasing frequency – everyone now seems to have an opinion about what inning of the cycle we are in...

Whatever your view on the timing of the end of the cycle, one has to acknowledge that something is very different this time around.

So what are you seeing out there?

The recent deterioration of the construction financing market is profound, especially given the context of the continued resiliency in fundamentals.

Loans to cost have declined, covenants are more restrictive, guarantee requirements are more onerous, and some lenders are even reluctant to lend on any project located in a submarket with a large volume of planned supply deliveries.

What do you see for the Denver market?

In the Denver apartment market, Class A rents have increased 10 percent year-over-year and vacancy continues its downward trend. Absorption has been increasing and now is around 8,000 units annually. Expected future supply is significant with approximately 23,000 units under construction, which will take 18 to 24 months to deliver.

Since BMC has primarily built in Cherry Creek, any thoughts on the downtown/Cherry Creek submarket?

To be clear, certain areas like downtown will see significant new supply, especially relative to existing stock. Some softening is inevitable and its vitality will rely on continued strong absorption. However, with its 24/7 live-work-play attributes and trends favoring city living, downtown should continue to emerge as a highly desirable submarket. In the meantime, we believe projects in locations and submarkets that benefit from supply constraints and irreplaceable qualities are the best places to focus our efforts.

Those are the highlights. For those interested the article is worth a read.

[TakeFive]

Photo courtesy CBS Denver4

"Crews Install LED Lights On 16th Street Mall"
August 30, 2016 by DENVER (CBS4)

DENVER (CBS4)– Crews began installing more lights along the 16th Street Mall on Monday.

The lights are LED... Crews will install 187 new street lights along the mall between Market and Broadway. It’s part of a series of increased security measures to make the area more welcoming to tourists and other visitors.

Installation is expected to continue through the fall.

[comoneymaker]

Originally Posted by RyanD

Why does that matter? The same conversation is going to be taking place...

So 1144 is going to be pretty awesome and gap-filling from this Cherry Creek angle!

Because it is a giant bin of random rubbish that will keep anyone away not from Denver that comes in here to see what is going on.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by comoneymaker

Because it is a giant bin of random rubbish that will keep anyone away not from Denver that comes in here to see what is going on.

Thread limits are 10,000 posts. So this one has ~850 more posts to go. Plenty of rubbish to go.

[TakeFive]

I assume the rhythms of downtown Denver start with the 16th Street Mall

"Reminiscing and worrying and talking on the 16th Street Mall: What we’ve learned so far"
September 1, 2016 by Andrew Kenney - Denverite

We’ve spoken to an absolute ton of people, sometimes enough to keep us busy for hours at a time. It’s 6 p.m. and I have been completely overloaded, with people reminiscing and worrying and talking so much.

So, let’s start with the one who has some of the greatest influence over what happens to this stretch of Denver: Tami Door, president of the Downtown Denver Partnership.

The buses, what about the buses?

One idea that has been floated, as she acknowledged: Drawing the bus lanes into the center of the corridor, and making the sidewalks much wider. (Walter Isenberg, owner of Sage Hospitality and chairman of the partnership, told us earlier that he liked this idea.) Another option: Have the bus run only in one direction on 16th Street, returning the other way on another street.

The article is mostly about feedback from a variety of ordinary people so it's an insightful, fun read. Give it a look.

[TakeFive]

Rendering courtesy of Tryba Architects via New West

"New West Daily Roundup for Sept. 2, 2016"
September 2, 2016 by Sean Reichard

Now, according to the Denver Post, the City Council has approved a $1.5 million loan to Rocky Mountain PBS to start construction of the project:

The loan — of which $1 million is forgivable if RMPBS meets a goal to hire 43 new workers in two years — is just a smidge of the $30 million the station needs to fundraise from supporters. The City Council will vote on the loan agreement Sept. 12. If the full council approves the deal, RMPBS has 90 days to begin construction.

[Denver Dweller]

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/09/02/gates-east-redevelopment-apartment-south-broadway/

[TakeFive]

Before


Photo courtesy: 42 Floors

After


Image courtesy: Yard2323

‘Yard’ brings creative office, amenities to Denargo Market
September by Jill Jamieson-Nichols - CREJ

The redevelopment of 2323 Delgany St. will be known as The Yard at Denargo Market. The property is located at the edge of River North and next to Lower Downtown, two of Denver’s hottest neighborhoods.

Renovation will begin late this year, with delivery scheduled for mid-2017.

With The Yard at Denargo Market, Denver-based EverWest is deploying an adaptive reuse strategy that it says has worked well in Arizona and California.

Nifty Vimeo Video