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  #9021  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 11:42 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
I don't think this was foreseeable. Population in Canada had been growing at a fairly predicable rate for decades. It was in no way obvious before 2022 (event as recently as the 2021 election) that in 2022 the Government would upend decades of immigration policy and both open the floodgates to massive "student" migration and massively increase regular immigration. It would be like blaming Chinese planners in the 1930s for not predicting Mao would suddenly want the mass extermination of sparrows (which caused massive crop losses because the sparrows ate the locusts). Terrible decisions from terrible leaders are hard to predict decades in advance.

Public housing is subject to the same constraints as private housing: increasing land prices, increasing labour costs, supply shortages, skilled trade shortages, NIMBY-run municipal governments. Any significant increase in public housing is going to further crowd out the market, which is good for the chosen few who are gifted a subsidized unit, but bad for everyone else.

Also, as I noted earlier, the current situation runs counter to all predictions that had been made in the 1990s and 2000s. It was assumed that baby boomers would move to small towns, cottages, Florida or possibly to condos as the Greatest Generation had done in significant numbers. Boomers staying in their suburban homes was not widely predicted.
Exactly.

Homelessness has more than doubled in my city during the past couple years. This deliberately manufactured housing crisis wasn’t predictable at all; there were no preliminary signs of the Scheme, at least not anywhere near that scale. It was a post-Covid surprise.

Truenorth, it would have make a huge difference. It’s the same “flattening the curve” idea. Canadian industry can physically build some +200,000 housing units per year; that number has been pretty stable since the 1970s. By reaching current population in ~2034 instead, we would have had the time to build some two million units that we’re sorely lacking right now. This insanely accelerated population growth totally screwed up the balance of supply and demand, and generated a deliberate, unforeseeable (except if you could read the brains of a few select LPC higher ups when they decided on the Scheme), epic housing crisis.
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  #9022  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 11:45 AM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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Even at Harper's level of growth we probably would have reached current population levels by 2030-2035. Trudeau pulled forward a few years worth of growth. It's mismanagement to be sure. But the fact that a small surge broke so much is also revealing.
Yeah, but by the 2030s baby boomers would be increasingly moving out of their suburban houses, freeing up a lot of real estate. Massively jacking up the population while boomers remain in their houses is a significant source of the current crisis.
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  #9023  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 11:46 AM
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Maybe it was McKinsey's? .
That has been going on for decades.
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  #9024  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 11:58 AM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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That has been going on for decades.
They have had government contracts for decades, but the scale went up dramatically.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mck...deau-1.6703626

In the nine years of the Harper government, McKinsey was awarded $2.2 million in federal contracts. During Trudeau's seven years in office, the company has received $66 million from the federal government.
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  #9025  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 12:03 PM
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deleted. wrong thread. how??!

Last edited by Nashe; Jun 19, 2024 at 6:00 PM.
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  #9026  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 12:10 PM
ConundrumNL ConundrumNL is offline
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
They have had government contracts for decades, but the scale went up dramatically.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mck...deau-1.6703626

In the nine years of the Harper government, McKinsey was awarded $2.2 million in federal contracts. During Trudeau's seven years in office, the company has received $66 million from the federal government.
John Oliver and More Perfect Union on Youtube have some good pieces on McKinsey. They've deeply embedded themselves in Government's around the world.

Wondering if there anyone in the cabinet that use to work them? EDIT: Helpful to read to article first
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  #9027  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 12:21 PM
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https://angusreid.org/wp-content/upl...al_capital.pdf

ARI is a bit of a whacky, conservative-leaning polling agency, so take this with a heavy grain of salt, but this appears to be the first poll we've seen where the Liberals would not form the official opposition should this play out on election day. That honour would go to the Bloc with those QC regional numbers.
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  #9028  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 12:25 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Exactly.

Homelessness has more than doubled in my city during the past couple years. This deliberately manufactured housing crisis wasn’t predictable at all; there were no preliminary signs of the Scheme, at least not anywhere near that scale. It was a post-Covid surprise.

Truenorth, it would have make a huge difference. It’s the same “flattening the curve” idea. Canadian industry can physically build some +200,000 housing units per year; that number has been pretty stable since the 1970s. By reaching current population in ~2034 instead, we would have had the time to build some two million units that we’re sorely lacking right now. This insanely accelerated population growth totally screwed up the balance of supply and demand, and generated a deliberate, unforeseeable (except if you could read the brains of a few select LPC higher ups when they decided on the Scheme), epic housing crisis.
Like I said earlier. We need to separate Trudeau Liberal incompetence from past failures. As you point out, we have had a stable construction rate of 200k per year. And that was insufficient long before JT came to power. Again, an example, of past underinvestment. Trudeau threw gasoline on the fire. But the fire was going long before he showed up with the gas can. And my fear is that pinning everything on Justin means that we actually don't end up fixing anything. We'll just consider going back to the 2014 rate of decline as acceptable.
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  #9029  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 12:36 PM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
Like I said earlier. We need to separate Trudeau Liberal incompetence from past failures. As you point out, we have had a stable construction rate of 200k per year. And that was insufficient long before JT came to power. Again, an example, of past underinvestment. Trudeau threw gasoline on the fire. But the fire was going long before he showed up with the gas can. And my fear is that pinning everything on Justin means that we actually don't end up fixing anything. We'll just consider going back to the 2014 rate of decline as acceptable.
There were 16.4 million units in Canada in 2021, 200k per year would be a housing growth of 1.2% which was consistent with pre-Trudeau population growth

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...30116d-eng.htm

And frankly, a higher rate of population growth is not necessarily bad, but it needs to be supported by planning/warning/etc.
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  #9030  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post

We're basically going down the same path as the UK. We're now going to get the horrible austerity they've had, which also accomplished nothing for them.
Funny how the UK has a conservative government that--and this is going to surprise a lot of people here--doesn't include Trudeau but they have basically all the same problems. I've already set myself a reminder for two years from now, when the large language model trained on Twitter's most toxic right-wing accounts will have been Canada's PM for a while. Nothing will have changed for the better.

I get that many of you are mad, but projecting your own ideas onto a man who exists purely to own the libs isn't going to make him become anything more than that. Today's problems will still exist, plus hardcore austerity, plus social conservatism. Look for PP to pick up where Harper left off: attempting to pass law after law that violates our charter rights. The difference is, the more he fails, the more vindictive and cruel he'll get.

There have been a couple heartbreaking stories from Europe this week on the migration front. One, the results of an investigation into a massacre in 2022. Moroccan police had been harassing a group of migrants on their way to Melilla (a Spanish exclave in Africa) to claim asylum, and ended up provoking a stampede away from the border checkpoint, into the fence around the Spanish city.

Some people believe that cruelty and pain will dissuade migrants. Some of these people would argue the above tragedy is worth it--a necessary evil, if you will. But since 2022, Europe's own immigration "crisis" has only deepened. Just the other day, a Greek coastguard was caught murdering migrants by throwing them from their boat. Maybe this time the cruelty will stick? How much evil is really necessary?

The whole "let them die trying" argument is an admission that migration is subject to market forces: if the cost is too high, demand will fall. We could argue about whether a high cost for some will dissuade all, or whether we're willing to impose costs as monstrous as the wars, climate disasters and despotism people are fleeing. But the point is that we understand that market forces are at work.

Now, how well does government wand-waving vanish market forces? Maybe for now you've slowed a stream of migrants coming through student visas, but that existed because private business developed a way to meet demand. They aren't going to give up their cash cow, so they'll pivot to find another way to meet demand.

And conservatives will let them. They are, after all, business friendly. This is how you end up with right-wing parties stoking nativism with one side of their mouths while allowing the market to do its thing.

Or, you get governments playing whack-a-mole with every new loophole business can monetize (and whatever monster-of-the-week the right has written into the collective imagination). With time, this will likely settle into a rhythm, stop looking so much like a crisis, and start looking like routine government business.

Effective regulation is possible. I believe it's what most of us want. But regulation is rarely a set-it-and-forget-it thing. Immigration regulations everywhere are currently developing in response to changed market forces. As much as people in every western country want to blame high migration on some single person in their respective country--Trudeau, Biden, Scholz (or, incredibly, Merkel!), Tory-of-the-week, Macron, etc.--that all these countries have all these different people to blame, tells you that responsibility doesn't rest with any one of them, or that all of them are inherently incapable of actively and effectively regulating immigration.

By all means, demand better. Just don't expect it right now and don't expect it at all from your next government.
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  #9031  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 12:46 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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These were the international security concerns in the 1994 White Paper. No mention of international terrorism, no mention of the long term threat of Russia and China. They thought they were doing peacekeeping type missions, so I am not sure even with more money they would have prioritized armoured tactical vehicles, etc. for a counterinsurgency operation.
Even with peacekeeping, the threat of landmines/IEDs was always there. This was a risk for literally every theatre from WWII onwards. This was always known. So was the likelihood of ending up in a part of the world where olive green didn't work. The government was simply willing to risk it when the rate of IEDs were lower (during low intensity peacekeeping). But that doesn't mean we didn't know about the risk. This is an attempt to retcon to remove culpability for the blood the bureaucrats and politicians of the 90s have on their hands when their penny-pinching eventually cost us lives.
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  #9032  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 12:48 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
There were 16.4 million units in Canada in 2021, 200k per year would be a housing growth of 1.2% which was consistent with pre-Trudeau population growth

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...30116d-eng.htm
And yet, prices were rising and affordability was declining during the Harper era. The rates of those were of course better. But it's not like the trends were favourable.
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  #9033  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 1:25 PM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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And yet, prices were rising and affordability was declining during the Harper era. The rates of those were of course better. But it's not like the trends were favourable.
It seems like they were relatively stable before 2016.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/in...t-definitions/


I know Vancouver and Toronto were already into very high housing prices at that time, but for most of Canada things were still pretty reasonable. We bought a 1500 sq foot infill townhouse in a not glamorous but fairly central neighborhood in Sep 2015 for 354k. The median household income in Ottawa was 86k
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  #9034  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 1:43 PM
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Ipsos (a fairly reputable federal pollster) has the CPC leading by 18 points. This race hasn't changed at all in the last few months. When you average it all out, CPC is leading by 17-20 points.
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  #9035  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 1:48 PM
YOWetal YOWetal is online now
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
They have had government contracts for decades, but the scale went up dramatically.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mck...deau-1.6703626

In the nine years of the Harper government, McKinsey was awarded $2.2 million in federal contracts. During Trudeau's seven years in office, the company has received $66 million from the federal government.
This seems like a total red herring. That is like 8 minutes of CERB handed out after everyone had access to two vaccines so essentially we were living with an endemic disease. It's also the cost of subsidizing an hour of battery production or OAS in Timmins for a month. Or a week of lost productivity by letting civil servants work from home 3 years after the pandemic was over.

There is expertise the Civil Service doesn't have. Some of this was spent in the fast and furious early Covid time. I think we should have spent more finding solutions not less given how much it cost us every day we were locked down.

If Polievre wants to make transformative cuts to the bloated bureacracy trusting the buearecrats to decide where to cut seems ineffective.
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  #9036  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 1:58 PM
YOWetal YOWetal is online now
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Originally Posted by biguc View Post
Funny how the UK has a conservative government that--and this is going to surprise a lot of people here--doesn't include Trudeau but they have basically all the same problems. I've already set myself a reminder for two years from now, when the large language model trained on Twitter's most toxic right-wing accounts will have been Canada's PM for a while. Nothing will have changed for the better.

I get that many of you are mad, but projecting your own ideas onto a man who exists purely to own the libs isn't going to make him become anything more than that. Today's problems will still exist, plus hardcore austerity, plus social conservatism. Look for PP to pick up where Harper left off: attempting to pass law after law that violates our charter rights. The difference is, the more he fails, the more vindictive and cruel he'll get.

There have been a couple heartbreaking stories from Europe this week on the migration front. One, the results of an investigation into a massacre in 2022. Moroccan police had been harassing a group of migrants on their way to Melilla (a Spanish exclave in Africa) to claim asylum, and ended up provoking a stampede away from the border checkpoint, into the fence around the Spanish city.

Some people believe that cruelty and pain will dissuade migrants. Some of these people would argue the above tragedy is worth it--a necessary evil, if you will. But since 2022, Europe's own immigration "crisis" has only deepened. Just the other day, a Greek coastguard was caught murdering migrants by throwing them from their boat. Maybe this time the cruelty will stick? How much evil is really necessary?

The whole "let them die trying" argument is an admission that migration is subject to market forces: if the cost is too high, demand will fall. We could argue about whether a high cost for some will dissuade all, or whether we're willing to impose costs as monstrous as the wars, climate disasters and despotism people are fleeing. But the point is that we understand that market forces are at work.

Now, how well does government wand-waving vanish market forces? Maybe for now you've slowed a stream of migrants coming through student visas, but that existed because private business developed a way to meet demand. They aren't going to give up their cash cow, so they'll pivot to find another way to meet demand.


By all means, demand better. Just don't expect it right now and don't expect it at all from your next government.
I agree very much with your first point. Blaming Trudeau for most of the problems is disigenous. I believe he has to go for other reasons but those existed already by 2019 and I don't mean Indian dressup which was also overblown. He has purposely made us poorer at the alter of Climate change. He has made virtue signalling, gender and racial identity politics our only natioanal idenity and is ashamed of our history and culture (or doesn't think we even have culture). As a government they were horrible at making decisions too which was disastrous in Covid. We saw this as waves of problems arrived in 2021 and this is where I think criticism is valid. Stopping fake students earlier, reining back housing growth which might have been hopeless but we could have at least tried. NZ and Australia made at least small steps. The overall record on spending is abysmal of course and that is the main reason we need a new government as this team is incapable of making the hard decisions. Heartless deicsions as people will need to suffer not only the rich.

As for migration Canada largely is immune from this until recently. We need massively expidite our refgugee claimant process to get quick decisions as many of the Roxham road folks are not legitimate refugees. I think European let them drown policy is horribly but Australia has the right attitude. Come illegally and you will never be a Permanent Resident. So if you really need protection you get it but that's all you get. This eliminates many of the completely and partially fake refugees we get.
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  #9037  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 2:04 PM
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This seems like a total red herring. That is like 8 minutes of CERB handed out after everyone had access to two vaccines so essentially we were living with an endemic disease. It's also the cost of subsidizing an hour of battery production or OAS in Timmins for a month. Or a week of lost productivity by letting civil servants work from home 3 years after the pandemic was over.

There is expertise the Civil Service doesn't have. Some of this was spent in the fast and furious early Covid time. I think we should have spent more finding solutions not less given how much it cost us every day we were locked down.

If Polievre wants to make transformative cuts to the bloated bureacracy trusting the buearecrats to decide where to cut seems ineffective.
The size of the contracts demonstrates the government's increasing reliance on consultants, it has nothing to do with fiscal prudence.

How many of these consultants go straight from college to a job in consulting? They appear to be experts at playing the expert, and not much more.
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  #9038  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 2:23 PM
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Originally Posted by biguc View Post
Funny how the UK has a conservative government that--and this is going to surprise a lot of people here--doesn't include Trudeau but they have basically all the same problems. I've already set myself a reminder for two years from now, when the large language model trained on Twitter's most toxic right-wing accounts will have been Canada's PM for a while. Nothing will have changed for the better.

I get that many of you are mad, but projecting your own ideas onto a man who exists purely to own the libs isn't going to make him become anything more than that. Today's problems will still exist, plus hardcore austerity, plus social conservatism. Look for PP to pick up where Harper left off: attempting to pass law after law that violates our charter rights. The difference is, the more he fails, the more vindictive and cruel he'll get.

There have been a couple heartbreaking stories from Europe this week on the migration front. One, the results of an investigation into a massacre in 2022. Moroccan police had been harassing a group of migrants on their way to Melilla (a Spanish exclave in Africa) to claim asylum, and ended up provoking a stampede away from the border checkpoint, into the fence around the Spanish city.

Some people believe that cruelty and pain will dissuade migrants. Some of these people would argue the above tragedy is worth it--a necessary evil, if you will. But since 2022, Europe's own immigration "crisis" has only deepened. Just the other day, a Greek coastguard was caught murdering migrants by throwing them from their boat. Maybe this time the cruelty will stick? How much evil is really necessary?

The whole "let them die trying" argument is an admission that migration is subject to market forces: if the cost is too high, demand will fall. We could argue about whether a high cost for some will dissuade all, or whether we're willing to impose costs as monstrous as the wars, climate disasters and despotism people are fleeing. But the point is that we understand that market forces are at work.

Now, how well does government wand-waving vanish market forces? Maybe for now you've slowed a stream of migrants coming through student visas, but that existed because private business developed a way to meet demand. They aren't going to give up their cash cow, so they'll pivot to find another way to meet demand.

And conservatives will let them. They are, after all, business friendly. This is how you end up with right-wing parties stoking nativism with one side of their mouths while allowing the market to do its thing.

Or, you get governments playing whack-a-mole with every new loophole business can monetize (and whatever monster-of-the-week the right has written into the collective imagination). With time, this will likely settle into a rhythm, stop looking so much like a crisis, and start looking like routine government business.

Effective regulation is possible. I believe it's what most of us want. But regulation is rarely a set-it-and-forget-it thing. Immigration regulations everywhere are currently developing in response to changed market forces. As much as people in every western country want to blame high migration on some single person in their respective country--Trudeau, Biden, Scholz (or, incredibly, Merkel!), Tory-of-the-week, Macron, etc.--that all these countries have all these different people to blame, tells you that responsibility doesn't rest with any one of them, or that all of them are inherently incapable of actively and effectively regulating immigration.

By all means, demand better. Just don't expect it right now and don't expect it at all from your next government.
LOL. The housing crisis happening in Australia and New Zealand and the uk was happening long before the housing crisis in Canada. The liberal government saw the opportunity that loads of unchecked immigration can bring. We now see the exact same thing driving up housing prices in the united states as the democrats Jack up immigration levels. Sometimes 2+2 actually does equal four. The Trudeau liberals knew what they were doing the entire time and if you don’t believe that I have some ocean front property I can sell you in Saskatchewan.

Has anyone seen that new conservative ad… it’s literally just before and after shots of how shitty Canada has become. Pierre doesn’t have to even say anything, he can just show pictures of the proof of how awful this government has been.
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  #9039  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 2:29 PM
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  #9040  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2024, 2:33 PM
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How many of these consultants go straight from college to a job in consulting? They appear to be experts at playing the expert, and not much more.
I love this comment!!

And they ignore experienced people in the field as they are "vested interests."

It's like a fresh faced 2nd lieutenant directly out of military college deciding to publicly dress down the regimental sergeant major on his first day in theatre. Who the fuck knows more about what's really going on!!!!
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