Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedestrian
It's hard to think of a really successful commercial site in this general area. If they do make it commercial, it may stay vacant for a long time. That's surely why 101 Polk didn't even try.
Gradually, as the residential population ramps up due to these buildings, hopefully that will change, but I don't see evidence of it when I walk through which I do often enough since I don't live far.
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It's a real challenge. I live at NEMA and the retail in the immediate area is usually unsuccessful, if it even gets filled.
Our building has several retail components, including a giant one on Market Street, and only a small space on 10th is leased (to a hair salon that seems to be doing well).
The bars seem to be doing OK (Beer Hall, Mr. Tipple's). The restaurants, other than ALTA which did so well that it...moved locations to a better spot...really struggle and many/most close.
It seems to me, a layperson, that (a) the retail spots are being built WAY too big for most functional uses, (b) the population density is just not there yet, and (c) the rents are being kept too high, potentially even on purpose if a developer does not want their spots filled.
In addition, on Market between 10th and 11th, there are no less than FOUR retail slots that seem to be stuck in development hell. Ma'velous and Little Griddle were undergoing renovations and were supposed to be re-opened by summer 2016! Still cordoned off. Signs for two restaurants (Dough and Mateo's) alongside Kagawa-Ya in Uber/Square's building have been up for over a year but no progress.
The last thing that seems to be sinking so many of the businesses, which is probably at least partially, if not wholly, due to large floor plates and high rents but also might have been a "the techies will pay anything!" misguided mindset, is that the restaurants have all come out WAY too high in price point. The type of millennial yuppies renting in NEMA, 100 Van Ness, The Civic, etc love to eat out and try new places, it's just that they far prefer fast casual dining a la the Back of House/Adriano Paganini projects. Stylish, well priced, great cocktails and beer programs, and designed for quick date nights, girls' nights, not a formal prix fixe. Their new A Mano just blocks away in Hayes Valley is PACKED every night with waits over two hours on peak nights. Cadence, Bon Marche, even Alta CA came out with menus that were extremely expensive, hard to get out the door for under $100 per person and several hours time commitment. Meanwhile the bars seem to be faring much better.
The combination of these big developments stalling for so long, as well as some of the retail slots being boarded up for years for who knows why, makes me feel bad for the early adopters. They took a risk but WAY more housing should be started by now. I honestly don't think we'll see One Oak start this cycle.
Even two more towers (One Oak and Goodwill) and the smaller accessory buildings on Hayes/Market/Franklin completed, and I think you'll see more foot traffic to activate the Market corridor.
Anyway a pet peeve of mine because there's so much prime retail space and yet so little actually activated, so my wife and I go to Hayes Valley much of the time.
EDIT: In terms of the Twitter Building retail, I will add that The Market seems booming 24/7 although I know they were having financial problems even a year ago. But it's always packed and buzzing, and their poke, Malaysian, and wine bar components are always full with big lines. And the Fitness SF on the ground floor of the Twitter Building looks extremely successful, as is Blue Bottle. Bon Marche obviously closed and has been vacant for over a year, and Cadillac is never more than half full but once again, their prime point is insanely high for the type of environment it's seeking to create (crowded, fun happy hour type vibe) and I think if they lowered their price point to a more reasonable (for yuppie millennials anyway) place that they'd see way more traction. Dirty Water seems to be a happy hour spot and is empty-ish most other times, but they've hung in there, at least for now. ALL the coffee spots on our block (Starbucks, Peet's, Market Cafe, Blue Bottle, even the new coffee shop in the ground floor of the Panoramic building) seem to be doing really well.
So the moral of the story is coffee, bars, reasonably priced restaurants, gyms = booming. The slew of high-end $100+ PP restaurants not so much. And actual brick-and-mortar retail stores where you...buy things NOT ONLINE (gasp!)? Total non-starter. Although they seem to be faring a little better on the trendy Hayes Valley strip.
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