Federal Government & Politics II

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The only obvious one to me would be a prior criminal conviction. There’d also be a credit check, maybe he’s got dodgy finances? I’m surprised he wouldn’t have had to get this clearance when in Harper’s government.

I don’t think cabinet ministers are required to have a security clearance. I doubt Trudeau has one.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Infrastructure is going to become a major issue in years to come. Not sure about other major municipalities but they must feel nervous seeing what’s happening in Calgary. The city just declared a state of emergency on day 10 of water restrictions after finding more sections of our main water feeder pipe were damaged. The new timeline for repair is 3-5 weeks.

To give some idea my family has been using disposable dishes every other day to run the dishwasher half the amount we normally do, holding off on laundry, as well as shorter showers and less toilet flushes. The new timeline isn’t sustainable for anyone, let alone a family with young children like mine. I don’t know what plan B is, except for the fact that we are likely to surpass the water limit at some point and mandatory indoor water restrictions will be brought in. The water main that broke supplies 60% of water to 1.6 million people and was halfway through its’ expected lifespan of 100 years. In addition to Calgary the cities of Airdrie, Strathmore and Chestermere are also on water restrictions.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7236361

Terrible as this is, it's also why folks like Chuck Marohn have been calling out the suburban growth ponzi scheme. This is an example of the manifestation of underinvestment in maintenance, with growth prioritized.

[Marty_Mcfly]

First poll out after the BoC rate cut, and it isn't good for the Liberals. Abacus has them at a pathetic 22%.

I recall being told by a certain unnamed forum member that voters would flock back to the Liberals when inflation returned to normal and interest rates were cut.

This also does not jive with the Liberals attempts to cut the polling deficit by 5 points by July. Really have to wonder now if Toronto-St. Paul's in a few weeks might be the final thing that pushes Trudeau to resign.

https://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-...post-rate-cut/

[MonctonRad]

One has to wonder if outside of Fortress Downtown Toronto, Fortress Anglo-Montreal and Fortress Acadian New Brunswick if the Liberals will win any seats elsewhere in Canada at all.



There is now no gender gap for the Liberals to count on. Has this ever happened before? It appears JT has pissed absolutely everyone off.



The upcoming defeat will pale in comparison to the rout of the old PCs when Kim Campbell got trounced, but, I doubt the Liberals will crack the 40 seat threshold in the next election.

[LikesBikes]

IMO, Liberals and NDP need new leadership if they have any hope of forming the next government. Young folks on the left are feeling left down and not inspired at all by what NDP or Liberals have to offer. PP is scary, but new to people, so he has an energy of change which is appealing until one looks closer into his policies. I know folks who hate PP and don't want to vote for him but also can't stand voting for the status quo. If either the Liberals or NDP were to somehow get a new young leader that is currently relatively unknown (not a Crystia Freeland or Mark Carney but maybe a Sean Fraser-type) and who can run a good campaign based on change, I bet they could still do well enough in the big cities and suburbs to squeak out a minority. Sticking with Trudeau and Singh though won't cut it this time.

[Marty_Mcfly]

The damage has been done to the Liberals, I don't think a leadership change will change the outcome of the next election. However, do they want to give the impression that they're trying to fight back?

Who would even want to be the sacrificial lamb if Trudeau were to step down?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by LikesBikes

IMO, Liberals and NDP need new leadership if they have any hope of forming the next government. Young folks on the left are feeling left down and not inspired at all by what NDP or Liberals have to offer. PP is scary, but new to people, so he has an energy of change which is appealing until one looks closer into his policies. I know folks who hate PP and don't want to vote for him but also can't stand voting for the status quo. If either the Liberals or NDP were to somehow get a new young leader that is currently relatively unknown (not a Crystia Freeland or Mark Carney but maybe a Sean Fraser-type) and who can run a good campaign based on change, I bet they could still do well enough in the big cities and suburbs to squeak out a minority. Sticking with Trudeau and Singh though won't cut it this time.

Sean Fraser played the most significant role in the current housing crisis of any cabinet minister. Making him the leader would seem like a suicide pact.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Sounds like a really crappy situation. I hope there is some improvement soon.

Thanks, unfortunately it’s looking like another month of restrictions.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Terrible as this is, it's also why folks like Chuck Marohn have been calling out the suburban growth ponzi scheme. This is an example of the manifestation of underinvestment in maintenance, with growth prioritized.

While Calgary is guilty of this like many others the problem seems to stem from the era the pipe came from. It was installed in ‘75 and there was a serious problem with how they built them then. Overconfidence in steel in the 70’s led them to use less of it in their pipes which has caused multiple instances of catastrophic failure such as we are facing now, particularly in American cities. This is troubling because There must be much more of it in our system. Any other Canadian cities that used this type of pipe could face similar failures.

https://piperepair.co.uk/2021/06/13/...es-of-the-70s/

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

First poll out after the BoC rate cut, and it isn't good for the Liberals. Abacus has them at a pathetic 22%.

I recall being told by a certain unnamed forum member that voters would flock back to the Liberals when inflation returned to normal and interest rates were cut.

This also does not jive with the Liberals attempts to cut the polling deficit by 5 points by July. Really have to wonder now if Toronto-St. Paul's in a few weeks might be the final thing that pushes Trudeau to resign.

https://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-...post-rate-cut/

If interest rates fall by 1.5% to 2% between now and the election, which they won't, it might have some effect on voters. A quarter point was never going to make any difference on its own.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Sean Fraser played the most significant role in the current housing crisis of any cabinet minister. Making him the leader would seem like a suicide pact.

He'd be a respectable place holder, if it came to that. So would Anand.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Sean Fraser played the most significant role in the current housing crisis of any cabinet minister. Making him the leader would seem like a suicide pact.

That would make Sean Fraser the perfect fall guy for the Libs. He's proven to be loyal partisan to do the party's bidding no matter what the cost is.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

That would make Sean Fraser the perfect fall guy for the Libs. He's proven to be loyal partisan to do the party's bidding no matter what the cost is.

I don't know if he'd sway voting intentions, but I find him personable and very well spoken. He's also decidedly middle class and not Laurentian Elite. Just seems like a good guy. Bonus - his Scots ancestry makes him inherently trustworthy ...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by LikesBikes

IMO, Liberals and NDP need new leadership if they have any hope of forming the next government. Young folks on the left are feeling left down and not inspired at all by what NDP or Liberals have to offer. PP is scary, but new to people, so he has an energy of change which is appealing until one looks closer into his policies. I know folks who hate PP and don't want to vote for him but also can't stand voting for the status quo. If either the Liberals or NDP were to somehow get a new young leader that is currently relatively unknown (not a Crystia Freeland or Mark Carney but maybe a Sean Fraser-type) and who can run a good campaign based on change, I bet they could still do well enough in the big cities and suburbs to squeak out a minority. Sticking with Trudeau and Singh though won't cut it this time.

It’s not possible for the Liberals to run a “change” campaign based on “the LPC has been destroying Canada, it’s time to stop them and elect us instead, oops wait a minute, we’re them!”

When you’re the incumbent of the last ten years, the only thing you can run on is “all things considered we’re actually doing a decent job, don’t take the risk of electing someone else, it’ll be even worse than us”.

(This is what the CAQ is going to run on, for the record. Same with Biden south of the border. That’s what incumbents run on.)

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I don't know if he'd sway voting intentions, but I find him personable and very well spoken. He's also decidedly middle class and not Laurentian Elite. Just seems like a good guy. Bonus - his Scots ancestry makes him inherently trustworthy ...

I don't see it. I agree with aottawa that Sean Fraser is one of the most willing arsonists on Team Trudeau, and does not appear to show any attrition for the NPR hell he has unleashed on Canadians. If given the opportunity again, I get the feeling he'd be willing to bulldoze Canada's immigration consensus all over again for pure partisan gain.

Now that Sean Fraser is housing minister, he's washed his hands clean of his previous file. The mental gymnastics and political doublespeak that he keeps deploying to shirk and evade responsibility for accelerating Canada's immigration crisis basically is a daily reminder that he lacks any shred of integrity. He strikes me as an opportunist, and lacks the good guy authenticity or genuineness of say Jack Layton.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by LikesBikes

IMO, Liberals and NDP need new leadership if they have any hope of forming the next government. Young folks on the left are feeling left down and not inspired at all by what NDP or Liberals have to offer. PP is scary, but new to people, so he has an energy of change which is appealing until one looks closer into his policies. I know folks who hate PP and don't want to vote for him but also can't stand voting for the status quo. If either the Liberals or NDP were to somehow get a new young leader that is currently relatively unknown (not a Crystia Freeland or Mark Carney but maybe a Sean Fraser-type) and who can run a good campaign based on change, I bet they could still do well enough in the big cities and suburbs to squeak out a minority. Sticking with Trudeau and Singh though won't cut it this time.

The next election is a throwaway. What the LPC and NDP need to worry about is what comes after and the relevancy of their movements to a whole lot of younger generations disillusioned with their politics after this government..

To me one of their biggest problems has been their inability to actually deliver. This is particularly fatal for parties on the left which advocate for expansion of government. You can't argue that more government is good, where more government performs badly on your watch. And this is particularly nuts when this government came in with "Deliverology" as their philosophy. That seems to have lasted just until they decided that picking ministers for politically correct optics was more important than competence. They had one of the most qualified and experienced caucuses ever elected and then frittered away that talent. Any honest introspection should actually begin here.

The good news for Liberals is that Poilievre is old school Reform Party. And reactionaries have never been good at governing. The Republicans in the US are providing a great live example. Poilievre could be the exception. But I doubt it. I expect he'll do plenty to have the public absolutely livid in 4-8 years. The left will have a real chance after that. And that will be their true test. But they need to start with some contrition.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

I don't see it. I agree with aottawa that Sean Fraser is one of the most willing arsonists on Team Trudeau, and does not appear to show any attrition for the NPR hell he has unleashed on Canadians. If given the opportunity again, I get the feeling he'd be willing to bulldoze Canada's immigration consensus all over again for pure partisan gain.

Now that Sean Fraser is housing minister, he's washed his hands clean of his previous file. The mental gymnastics and political doublespeak that he keeps deploying to shirk and evade responsibility for accelerating Canada's immigration crisis basically is a daily reminder that he lacks any shred of integrity. He strikes me as an opportunist, and lacks the good guy authenticity or genuineness of say Jack Layton.

He's not exceptional actually. A good chunk of this cabinet is like him.

1) They tend to declare victory before they even start working on the problem.

2) When they fail, they refuse to be contrite and learn from their mistakes. Instead they gaslight the public.

This happens on files that aren't even super significant to the public. For example, take their pledge to plant 2 Billion Trees. A worthwhile pledge. They made some mistakes out of the gate and were stumbling getting going. An honest government would have acknowledged mistakes and reset policy. What does this government do? Use Enron style accounting to cover up their incompetence at actually getting trees in the ground. They actually even tried to deny they ever made the promise.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

I don't see it. I agree with aottawa that Sean Fraser is one of the most willing arsonists on Team Trudeau, and does not appear to show any attrition for the NPR hell he has unleashed on Canadians. If given the opportunity again, I get the feeling he'd be willing to bulldoze Canada's immigration consensus all over again for pure partisan gain.

Now that Sean Fraser is housing minister, he's washed his hands clean of his previous file. The mental gymnastics and political doublespeak that he keeps deploying to shirk and evade responsibility for accelerating Canada's immigration crisis basically is a daily reminder that he lacks any shred of integrity. He strikes me as an opportunist, and lacks the good guy authenticity or genuineness of say Jack Layton.

You do understand that cabinet ministers do not create their own mandates?

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

If interest rates fall by 1.5% to 2% between now and the election,

While not impossible, given the state of the US economy, such a significant drop in Canada would unlikely be followed south of the border, resulting in a big impact in the FX rate, meaning anything imported would skyrocket, pushing inflation, ....

Proverbial fire and drying pan situation.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

You do understand that cabinet ministers do not create their own mandates?

John Turner tried that line.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The good news for Liberals is that Poilievre is old school Reform Party. And reactionaries have never been good at governing. The Republicans in the US are providing a great live example. Poilievre could be the exception. But I doubt it. I expect he'll do plenty to have the public absolutely livid in 4-8 years. The left will have a real chance after that. And that will be their true test. But they need to start with some contrition.

Agree 100%

In this particular instance, decimation at the polls this time round doesn't necessarily mean a long time in the political wilderness for the Libbies.

I have low expectations for Poillievre. As long as the Liberals seem contrite, and appear to have learned from their mistakes, they may be back in four years time.