The Albuquerque Journal has a story about Albuquerque Economic Development's five-year strategic plan that they released today for economic development in the city.
https://www.abqjournal.com/2404655/abq-economic-developers-set-lofty-jobs-goal.html
Quote:
Albuquerque economic developers are setting lofty goals for stimulating job creation in the metro area, boosting the city’s brand nationally, and working to overcome some of its most stubbornly entrenched problems.
A first-of-its-kind five-year strategic plan commissioned by Albuquerque Economic Development was released Tuesday by AED officials. It lays out the organization’s vision: That the greater Albuquerque area be known and recognized for having the highest quality of life and the most diverse, sustainable economy in the region.
It’s going to be a heavy lift, said AED president and CEO Danielle Casey.
|
Quote:
AED’s specific five-year goal is that Albuquerque rank in the top 25% of mid-sized markets in the U.S. for job growth. That would be a coup for the metro area, which only saw .7% job growth in the last five years, placing it in the bottom 25% for cities with a population of between 500,000 and 1 million people, Casey said.
AED also looked at where Albuquerque ranks on a number of metrics as compared to 10 other metro areas that compete for some of the same economic development opportunities: Dallas; Phoenix; Salt Lake City; Boise, Idaho; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Des Moines, Iowa; El Paso, Texas; Omaha, Nebraska; Tucson, Arizona; and Tulsa, Oklahoma.
|
Quote:
The hurdles AED lays out aren’t insignificant — or new. Crime, poverty, homelessness, ineffective education and workforce preparation, and a lack of national and major publicly traded companies are just a few that made the list.
AED’s study asserts that Albuquerque’s metro area violent and property crime is lower than the national average — but higher than all the other 10 cities except Tulsa. The most recent crime statistics released by the FBI, however, show that Albuquerque outstrips the national average in both violent and property crime rates.
|
In the article the Journal reporter takes issue with their crime numbers, yet doesn't bother to question that ridiculous 5-year job growth percentage that they give before that.
I don't know what numbers AED is looking at, but going by the official BLS numbers I come up with a vastly different job growth percentage for Albuquerque in recent years.
They say Albuquerque has only had .7 percent job growth in the last five years but that doesn't jibe at all with a fair reading of the most recent statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the Albuquerque MSA.
Taking a look at job creation pre-pandemic (the only fair gauge, since job losses due to the pandemic are unprecedented) the city added 17,400 jobs between February 2016 and February 2020, which is right before the pandemic. That's a 5-year growth rate of 4.5 percent.
Looking at any other recent month after February 2020 and comparing it to five years prior would yield negative job growth. Therefore, pre-pandemic numbers are the only fair and possible way to gauge actual job growth for Albuquerque.
I don't have time to crunch the numbers for all metro areas between 500,000 and 1 million people, but the percentage that they give is off for Albuquerque, which calls into question their numbers and methods.
Albuquerque's jobs numbers were on an upward trajectory between January 2012 and February 2020, before the pandemic caused massive job losses here and everywhere else in the country
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU35107...ble&output_view=data&include_graphs=true
Albuquerque Business First also reported about AED's strategic plan today. They repeat the ridiculous job creation percentage and also include an equally ridiculous job growth percentage for the next five years that AED is apparently projecting.
https://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/...w-strategic-plan-for-abq-job-growth.html
Quote:
Refining its outreach, increasing digital marketing efforts and honing in on specific targets of industries are all part of a new, bigger vision for Albuquerque Economic Development that it announced Tuesday.
The goal? Over the next five years, AED wants the Duke City to rank in the top 25% of mid-sized markets — between 500,000 and 1 million people — in terms of job growth. AED hopes to accomplish this goal by growing in four separate areas.
Grow and diversify the regional economy
Champion the region and establish a national brand
Address issues and challenges that will increase regional competitiveness
Modernize the organization for long term success
The AED board approved the plan earlier this month.
|
Quote:
AED will heighten its business expansion and recruitment efforts on the six following industries:
Aerospace
Biosciences
Renewable Energy
Digital Media & Film
Corporate & Professional Services
Manufacturing
Those sectors were chosen after consulting with economic development leaders from Bernalillo, Sandoval, Torrance and Valencia counties, and considering the state's economic development priorities. AED believes it can leverage some of New Mexico's strong-performing resources like the national labs.
Over the past five years, AED found that Albuquerque's job growth rate was 0.7%, which ranks it in the bottom quarter of similar cities. Albuquerque's projected job growth rate for the next five years is at 1.2%. That still lags behind cities like Colorado Springs, Colorado (2.3%) and Boise, Idaho (3.6%).
|
I'm guessing that low growth number is if their plan is not implemented or successful, the only way it could make sense. But none of this makes much sense anyway.
Albuquerque would need to add just 4,812 jobs over the next five years to equal 1.2 percent of its pre-pandemic jobs total of 401,000 in February 2020. Just the Orion Center (1,000), Amazon (2,000), Netflix (1,000), Facebook (300) and Intel (700) together could add that amount of jobs in that timeframe.
But let's say they're talking about Albuquerque adding jobs from where it stands today after the worst of the pandemic. Albuquerque in just the last year has added back 27,900 jobs for a growth rate of 7.9 percent over the last year. So that alone also flies in the face of a 1.2 percent job growth projection over 5 years.
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.nm_albuquerque_msa.htm
Most places have seen a dramatic bounce back in jobs once fully re-opening with no restrictions, like we are about to do here in Albuquerque. I'm sure we'll get back to where we were before the pandemic within the next year, let alone the next five years.