The Official Saint John, NB Project Thread

[HardTruth]

Originally Posted by Helladog

Re: Point Lepreau

You may have some good points here, but we will still need power plants of large scale to compensate for the influx of electric cars. The current reactor won't make it to a refurb, but possibly a second one in it's place. Cold fusion maybe?

Good point, that may happen. The more cost effective route (for government and consumers) would be to sell to Hydro Quebec at that point and tap into their abundance of affordable, sustainable hydro power. Obviously the public was against this last time, but if NB keeps going the way it is now we may have no choice.

[Whaler]

Just a quick note to say that IPP will not be closing anytime soon. As a matter of fact, they plan to expand and are now buying new components for this expansion.
They are also hiring new people. This will answer the question why Saint John is going against the employment trend.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Every city in NB has it's own particular niche. Saint John needs to build on it's own particular strengths. This includes the port, heavy industry and the energy sector. At the same time however, you can't put all your eggs in one basket and prudent diversification into other sectors of the economy only makes sense.....

Moncton is a perfect example of a comeback

[HardTruth]

Originally Posted by Whaler

Just a quick note to say that IPP will not be closing anytime soon. As a matter of fact, they plan to expand and are now buying new components for this expansion.
They are also hiring new people. This will answer the question why Saint John is going against the employment trend.

I would appreciate a brief explanation as to what market there will be for so much paper in 2030.

In 2012 ebook sales surpassed paperback.

Paper editions of newspapers and magazines have continued to decrease circulation.

Many large companies are requiring employees to receive paystubs online.

The use of Internet billing and banking is growing.

E-mail is winning out over paper mail (Canada post would be dead now if not for ads, which won't save it indefinitely)

The market for paper is decreasing dramatically so Irving may have some keen business sense to play the market for the next 10 years, however the plant will close eventually.

[Fischbob]

I debated whether or not to jump into this because it's pretty clear that HardTruth has already made up their mind about the fate of Saint John...

We actually discussed the need for diversification just 4 pages ago. What people sometimes don't realize is that the local economy has already been transitioning away from heavy industry for the past two decades. One aspect of SJ's economy that you didn't mention and that won't be subject to the fossil fuel and global manufacturing shocks you seem convinced about is our ICT sector, whose growth has managed to keep us afloat despite the loss of our shipyard and sugar refinery.

I hope that everyone with a head on their shoulders realizes that the natural resource windfall we're anticipating absolutely must not be treated as an economic crutch. Rather, we must treat it as a stepladder that can enable us to shore up our urban assets and diversify our workforce. I think we're all painfully aware of the nature of the boom-bust cycle that will befall us again if we fail to do this.

While diversification represents a major challenge and the outlook without it looks rather bleak, I don't want the take-home message to be for us to abandon ship because there's no hope in hell of long-term resilience. I love Saint John too much to just give up.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Just thought I would post this link to a great blog on development in Saint John. I forgot about it for a couple years myself, so I had a lot to catch up on

http://urbanplans.blogspot.ca/

[Peter_johnns]

Originally Posted by HardTruth

I would appreciate a brief explanation as to what market there will be for so much paper in 2030.

In 2012 ebook sales surpassed paperback.

Paper editions of newspapers and magazines have continued to decrease circulation.

Many large companies are requiring employees to receive paystubs online.

The use of Internet billing and banking is growing.

E-mail is winning out over paper mail (Canada post would be dead now if not for ads, which won't save it indefinitely)

The market for paper is decreasing dramatically so Irving may have some keen business sense to play the market for the next 10 years, however the plant will close eventually.

The pulp mill profits are huge. One of their most successful endeavours. Paper isn't going away that quickly

[Peter_johnns]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

I debated whether or not to jump into this because it's pretty clear that HardTruth has already made up their mind about the fate of Saint John...

We actually discussed the need for diversification just 4 pages ago. What people sometimes don't realize is that the local economy has already been transitioning away from heavy industry for the past two decades. One aspect of SJ's economy that you didn't mention and that won't be subject to the fossil fuel and global manufacturing shocks you seem convinced about is our ICT sector, whose growth has managed to keep us afloat despite the loss of our shipyard and sugar refinery.

I hope that everyone with a head on their shoulders realizes that the natural resource windfall we're anticipating absolutely must not be treated as an economic crutch. Rather, we must treat it as a stepladder that can enable us to shore up our urban assets and diversify our workforce. I think we're all painfully aware of the nature of the boom-bust cycle that will befall us again if we fail to do this.

While diversification represents a major challenge and the outlook without it looks rather bleak, I don't want the take-home message to be for us to abandon ship because there's no hope in hell of long-term resilience. I love Saint John too much to just give up.

Exactly. The objective fact, is that SJ is in transition. Transitioning cities are in the process of diversification, and economic rebound. SJ will experience huge growth in the next half century. I'm not worried. It would be nice to see our shipyard come back though

[Peter_johnns]

Can someone please develop a shipping container condo in uptown SJ?

The Port City should have this kind of development

[cdnguys]

There will always be a need for paper - the mills that survive to serve that smaller need are ones that invested in infrastructure and maintenance. Irving is a winner in that respect - so I don't see it closing. Remember they diversified themselves including personal care products and paper/box board.

As for the refinery closing due to less demand - there will always be demand, although flattened to very little growth - but the fact is Irving has 900 branded stations to purchase fuel from the refinery. Refineries that don't have a distribution network downstream may have difficulties. Refineries that close are ones that multi-nationals squeezed every bit of profit out of them without keeping up with maintenance - and then it's too late and unprofitable. (Dartmouth refinery for example). Irving spends upwards of $50,000,000 to $75,000,000 just on 2 month shutdowns annually alone. That's a business plan that envisions long-term stability.

[HardTruth]

Originally Posted by Whaler

Just a quick note to say that IPP will not be closing anytime soon. As a matter of fact, they plan to expand and are now buying new components for this expansion.
They are also hiring new people. This will answer the question why Saint John is going against the employment trend.

Originally Posted by cdnguys

There will always be a need for paper - the mills that survive to serve that smaller need are ones that invested in infrastructure and maintenance. Irving is a winner in that respect - so I don't see it closing. Remember they diversified themselves including personal care products and paper/box board.

As for the refinery closing due to less demand - there will always be demand, although flattened to very little growth - but the fact is Irving has 900 branded stations to purchase fuel from the refinery. Refineries that don't have a distribution network downstream may have difficulties. Refineries that close are ones that multi-nationals squeezed every bit of profit out of them without keeping up with maintenance - and then it's too late and unprofitable. (Dartmouth refinery for example). Irving spends upwards of $50,000,000 to $75,000,000 just on 2 month shutdowns annually alone. That's a business plan that envisions long-term stability.

The pulp mill may survive longer than I thought, however I still believe it will close before 2050. We can speculate, but time will tell.

For Saint Johns sake I hope we will all be driving 100% fossil fuel powered vehicles in 2050...do I think it's likely? No.

We will need petroleum based products for many generations to come but that market can be sustained by very few refineries.

[Wishblade]

Originally Posted by HardTruth

The pulp mill may survive longer than I thought, however I still believe it will close before 2050. We can speculate, but time will tell.

For Saint Johns sake I hope we will all be driving 100% fossil fuel powered vehicles in 2050...do I think it's likely? No.

We will need petroleum based products for many generations to come but that market can be sustained by very few refineries.

To hope that everyone is driving fossil fuel vehicles in the coming decades just for local economic benefits is very narrow sighted. Think about the ramifications of such a thing on a global scale! I personally wish we were completely converted to electric by now, and there's honestly no good reason why we haven't.

Saint John should start planning now how it will survive in a world void of fossil fuels.

[Fischbob]

Originally Posted by Wishblade

To hope that everyone is driving fossil fuel vehicles in the coming decades just for local economic benefits is very narrow sighted. Think about the ramifications of such a thing on a global scale! I personally wish we were completely converted to electric by now, and there's honestly no good reason why we haven't.

Saint John should start planning now how it will survive in a world void of fossil fuels.

I'm not convinced that fossil fuel use will be entirely eliminated, even in 2050, and as cdnguys pointed out, the constant reinvestment our refinery gets and its proximity to the US northeast will keep it competitive, come what may.

But more to the point, I'm fairly confident that in the intervening 40 years, we'll be able to get something else going. As other fourmers have pointed out, transition and refocusing are not only possible for local economies, but we have precedents in our own province! Moncton didn't roll over and die when things were looking bleak in the '80s, SJ didn't roll over and die when we lost thousands of jobs with the closing of the shipyard and Lantic Sugar, and we don't have to roll over and die when the next big hit happens. Of course resilience won't come easy: it will take a hell of a lot of work.

Now everyone has the right to be as negative as they want about the future, but at the end of the day it'll do no good if you aren't doing anything about it. So HardTruths, have you got any innovative business ideas to help further diversify the SJ economy? If so, stop complaining and make it happen! If not, stop complaining and start brainstorming! The clock is ticking, after all.

[Wolkenkratzerliebhab]

Originally Posted by HardTruth

The pulp mill may survive longer than I thought, however I still believe it will close before 2050. We can speculate, but time will tell.

For Saint Johns sake I hope we will all be driving 100% fossil fuel powered vehicles in 2050...do I think it's likely? No.

We will need petroleum based products for many generations to come but that market can be sustained by very few refineries.

Boy, oh boy, what have you been smoking? You realize, don't you that the petroleum industry is about more than just fuel for cars and heating homes! Over 6,000 different products are made from petroleum. For example, all those electronic devices that are supposedly going to kill off paper (in your dreams) are made possible largely because they are made from petroleum. The entire plastic industry is built on petroleum for the most part, and below is a link for just a few of the many by products made possible because of refineries such as ours, so please check it out and tell me if you still believe paper and the oil industry are on their death-bed:

http://oilandgasinfo.ca/oil-gas-you/products-made-from-oil-and-gas

[ErickMontreal]

On side note, here's some pictures of the best skyline in New-Brunswick that were taken today :

[someone123]

The doom-and-gloom 2050 list may or may not be correct, but it's only one half of the equation, and it's the easier-to-predict half. Nobody knows what new industries will emerge by 2050 or what sort of impact they would have on a city like Saint John.

History is full of bad predictions that seemed clear at the time. Back in the 1970's, people thought Seattle was finished. Its economy was based on Boeing aircraft manufacturing and the company was moving production elsewhere. Nobody had any clue that companies like Microsoft or Amazon would come into being years later.

Originally Posted by Wishblade

Saint John should start planning now how it will survive in a world void of fossil fuels.

The Maritimes as a whole need to lose their obsession with luring industry and big business "silver bullets" to fix the economy. Instead, a much better approach is to focus on education and entrepreneurship. It is much better to grow small to medium-sized local companies than to pay money to a bring in branch operations of big companies. The best case scenario there is that profits are siphoned out of the local economy, and the worst case is that they close down in a couple of years and put lots of people out of work.

[Peter_johnns]

Beautiful pictures

[Fischbob]

Great photos Erick! One thing that jumps out is the amount of underutilized land around the Red Rose building and along that stretch of Smythe Street. Relocating the electrical substation and redeveloping it and the parking lots would make for an interesting mixed-use area that could become a great interface between the established Uptown and an urbanized Long Wharf.

Originally Posted by someone123

education and entrepreneurship

^This

[Ire Narissis]

Originally Posted by Wishblade

I personally wish we were completely converted to electric by now, and there's honestly no good reason why we haven't.

There is one excellent reason: range. Especially in North America, with our enormous landmass and long road trips. Even a Tesla Model S with the expanded battery, which is about the longest range you'll find on any electric car today, has a hard limit of around 300 miles (~500km) before it needs to charge--and charging it from empty takes 5 hours with Tesla's high-current charger, twice as long or longer from a standard outlet.

Now, it would be shortsighted to call this an insurmountable obstacle; I can envision a system where everyone drives an electric car and every home and hotel parking lot is fitting with high-powered chargers. But even in that situation, you're still looking at being stuck charging for hours at a time if you start to run out of juice.

Electric cars are a good thing, but they will need significant infrastructure investments and improvements in both battery capacity and charge speed in order to become ubiquitous in North America. The question I'm asking myself is which will happen first: those developments, or the introduction of a different alternate fuel, hydrogen for example, that would be as quick to refill as gasoline and therefore offer the same unlimited range?

At any rate, it's a mistake to think of any fossil fuel producer as strictly an 'oil' company. They are energy companies, and energy will always be in demand. If/when the world weans itself off of oil, I would expect Irving to replace the refinery with some other energy venture, be it alternate fuels or gas or what-have-you. Exactly what sort of impact such a drastic realignment of their business would have is not something I have the knowledge to predict, but there you have it.

As for pulp & paper, while it's true that paper consumption is going to continue to decrease dramatically, it will never disappear. Tissue products, boxes and cartons, wrapping papers, note paper, posters, and lots of other products will still continue to exist even as correspondence, book, and newsprint use wanes. A reduction in demand will obviously see some contraction of the industry, but the industry is not going to disappear. Many mills worldwide will close, but not all. At this point it's up to Irving to secure its position in the industry and make sure it will be one of the producers that stays open.

[KnoxfordGuy]

[QUOTE=ErickMontreal;6083512]On side note, here's some pictures of the best skyline in New-Brunswick that were taken today :



This is a great pic! Love the colour! It makes Saint John look pretty big. Really is the best skyline in New Brunswick by a lot.