Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy
The real test for Trudeau will be the upcoming by-election in Toronto-St.Paul. It has been a Liberal bastion since the early 90s. It's a seat the Liberals never even had to try to win, it was automatic. If the Liberals do poorly or certainly if they lose the seat, then the calls for Trudeau to resign will become a roar and especially amongst their key urban support. If the Liberal can't hold St.Paul's then they are in VERY deep trouble and every backbencher will begin to worry about their re-election no matter how safe the seat was once considered.
Trudeau's future maybe decided on June 24th.
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338 evaluates Toronto-St.Paul's as "LPC leaning" with an 82% chance of the Liberals holding it and an 18% chance of the CPC taking it, with the average Liberal lead being 5 points (39% LPC vs. 34% CPC). So the Liberals
could lose it although it's still unlikely.
I think you're absolutely correct that a Liberal loss here would trigger huge panic in the LPC.
EDIT: One other thing I didn't think about when I posted: Toronto-St. Paul's has a fairly large Jewish community, at 15% of the population. Backlash against the LPC over the Israel issue could possibly drive a bigger turnout for the CPC than a general swing model like 338 would predict. Still think the Liberals holding it is the most likely result (although I think will be a lot narrower than the LPC would like).