Federal Government & Politics II

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by casper

Opioids are a major problem in Canada and the US.

I don't know why Canada. The Europeans don't have near the same problem we have. Number of studies attribute that to Europe having universal health care and therefore less reliance on pain management medication, better access to no-cost addition treatment, and GP being employees of the system doing a better job as gate keeper on access to opioids.

Canada should in principle not be as bad as the US in this area. Not certain what else is at play.

That said, it does not explain Canada.

One factor for why opioid deaths are so much more prevalent in the US and Canada is China's waging a not-particularly-subtle hybrid war against the West by flooding North American cities with fentanyl, carfentanyl, etc., resulting in extraordinarily toxic drug supply and the emergence of drug 'tranq', which is scything through US cities.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

One factor for why opioid deaths are so much more prevalent in the US and Canada is China's waging a not-particularly-subtle hybrid war against the West by flooding North American cities with fentanyl, carfentanyl, etc., resulting in extraordinarily toxic drug supply and the emergence of drug 'tranq', which is scything through US cities.

"Opium War 3: Fountains of Fentanyl"

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Very interesting.

Voters in Quebec may have decided that PP is going to win the next election, and want to have a few more seats in the government benches.

This is sort of a bellweather thing. Will JT take the hint???

Sadly, not likely..........

Why Sadly? You imagine he calls an election now if he sees he's losing?

[ssiguy]

The real test for Trudeau will be the upcoming by-election in Toronto-St.Paul. It has been a Liberal bastion since the early 90s. It's a seat the Liberals never even had to try to win, it was automatic. If the Liberals do poorly or certainly if they lose the seat, then the calls for Trudeau to resign will become a roar and especially amongst their key urban support. If the Liberal can't hold St.Paul's then they are in VERY deep trouble and every backbencher will begin to worry about their re-election no matter how safe the seat was once considered.

Trudeau's future maybe decided on June 24th.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The real test for Trudeau will be the upcoming by-election in Toronto-St.Paul. It has been a Liberal bastion since the early 90s. It's a seat the Liberals never even had to try to win, it was automatic. If the Liberals do poorly or certainly if they lose the seat, then the calls for Trudeau to resign will become a roar and especially amongst their key urban support. If the Liberal can't hold St.Paul's then they are in VERY deep trouble and every backbencher will begin to worry about their re-election no matter how safe the seat was once considered.

Trudeau's future maybe decided on June 24th.

338 evaluates Toronto-St.Paul's as "LPC leaning" with an 82% chance of the Liberals holding it and an 18% chance of the CPC taking it, with the average Liberal lead being 5 points (39% LPC vs. 34% CPC). So the Liberals could lose it although it's still unlikely.

I think you're absolutely correct that a Liberal loss here would trigger huge panic in the LPC.

EDIT: One other thing I didn't think about when I posted: Toronto-St. Paul's has a fairly large Jewish community, at 15% of the population. Backlash against the LPC over the Israel issue could possibly drive a bigger turnout for the CPC than a general swing model like 338 would predict. Still think the Liberals holding it is the most likely result (although I think will be a lot narrower than the LPC would like).

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

One factor for why opioid deaths are so much more prevalent in the US and Canada is China's waging a not-particularly-subtle hybrid war against the West by flooding North American cities with fentanyl, carfentanyl, etc., resulting in extraordinarily toxic drug supply and the emergence of drug 'tranq', which is scything through US cities.

Bingo. They learned well from the opium trade the west inflicted on them over a century ago. Why our governments haven't figured that out or taken action is mystifying.

[casper]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

338 evaluates Toronto-St.Paul's as "LPC leaning" with an 82% chance of the Liberals holding it and an 18% chance of the CPC taking it, with the average Liberal lead being 5 points (39% LPC vs. 34% CPC). So the Liberals could lose it although it's still unlikely.

I think you're absolutely correct that a Liberal loss here would trigger huge panic in the LPC.

EDIT: One other thing I didn't think about when I posted: Toronto-St. Paul's has a fairly large Jewish community, at 15% of the population. Backlash against the LPC over the Israel issue could possibly drive a bigger turnout for the CPC than a general swing model like 338 would predict. Still think the Liberals holding it is the most likely result (although I think will be a lot narrower than the LPC would like).

LPC needs a wake-up call. I am shocked the call for new leadership is not stronger.

I would be less worried about the Israel issue. Canada response has been measured and balanced. I think there is even growing calls within Israel for increased restraint and a more disciplined and targeted action. Even the head of the Israel military is questioning the overall plan.

[Burquitlaman]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Bingo. They learned well from the opium trade the west inflicted on them over a century ago. Why our governments haven't figured that out or taken action is mystifying.

What do you want the "governments" to do? Western culture is the issue. Westerners are generally pro-drug use and consumption. There is very little stigma these days. It is almost expected that young people will experiment with drugs etc...

People are also generally against harsh policies when it comes to drug offences.

[ssiguy]

As far as why there hasn't been a bigger cry for Trudeau to step down, I think one of the problems is that they have no idea who could replace him. Freeland, Anaand, and Miller have Trudeau written all over them and the electorate would see no difference.

The Liberals need someone who is a clear distinction from Trudeau and could legitimately say they are not tarnished by his incompetence and endless corruption. Of course, the person on everyone's mind is Carney. He has instant name recognition, solid understanding of finance and economics, is socially progressive, bilingual, a very competent communicator, is a strong supporter of fighting climate change, has no connection to the current gov't or even the Liberal Party, and due to being born in the NWT he couldn't be labelled as either a Golden Triangle boy or a Western hick. When asked about whether he would run he has never said he would but conversely never said he wouldn't which in gentile political diplomacy speak is about as firm a yes as one could get. I think the issue for Carney is not whether I want to run but rather do I want to run now.

The Liberals are behind nationwide in every possible demographic group and perhaps Carney simply sees that is is too late to right the ship. Do I want to go from the Bank of Canada & England to sitting on the wrong side of the House for the next 5 years? Maybe I should let someone else take over and when they get pulverized in the next election and meaning they will have another leadership review in a few years, then I can take over.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

338 evaluates Toronto-St.Paul's as "LPC leaning" with an 82% chance of the Liberals holding it and an 18% chance of the CPC taking it, with the average Liberal lead being 5 points (39% LPC vs. 34% CPC). So the Liberals could lose it although it's still unlikely.

I think you're absolutely correct that a Liberal loss here would trigger huge panic in the LPC.

In agree there is a chance that the Liberal will hold the seat but that won't be enough. Toronto-St.Paul is a downtown bastion of Liberal support in a city that is a bastion of Liberal support so just squeaking by will not cut the mustard. The backbenchers and Liberal Party will automatically think that if they can hardly hold such a seat then they are in real trouble and the cries of Trudeau's resignation will become thunderous.

Trudeau doesn't just need a win but a solid one if he is to hold back the masses demand of giving him the boot.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

338 evaluates Toronto-St.Paul's as "LPC leaning" with an 82% chance of the Liberals holding it and an 18% chance of the CPC taking it, with the average Liberal lead being 5 points (39% LPC vs. 34% CPC). So the Liberals could lose it although it's still unlikely.

I think you're absolutely correct that a Liberal loss here would trigger huge panic in the LPC.

EDIT: One other thing I didn't think about when I posted: Toronto-St. Paul's has a fairly large Jewish community, at 15% of the population. Backlash against the LPC over the Israel issue could possibly drive a bigger turnout for the CPC than a general swing model like 338 would predict. Still think the Liberals holding it is the most likely result (although I think will be a lot narrower than the LPC would like).

I was shocked Trudeau called this byelection. I guess he needs a win and the odds are still good he gets it or perhaps he preffered a loss now which I think would clearly be the end rather than in the fall. The Jewish community could come out in droves to send a message and still not be enough to change the result you've also got anti-Isreali jews in the riding though some of those might vote againt the Liberals for being too supportive of Israel along with some of the woke vote in the riding.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Burquitlaman

What do you want the "governments" to do? Western culture is the issue. Westerners are generally pro-drug use and consumption. There is very little stigma these days. It is almost expected that young people will experiment with drugs etc...

People are also generally against harsh policies when it comes to drug offences.

You pretty much answered your own question on what gov'ts should do: end their permissive drug policies. I also disagree with the statement "People are also generally against harsh policies when it comes to drug offences" especially now when they've seen the chaos it leads to. No wonder the political pendulum is swinging back to the right.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I was shocked Trudeau called this byelection. I guess he needs a win and the odds are still good he gets it or perhaps he preffered a loss now which I think would clearly be the end rather than in the fall. The Jewish community could come out in droves to send a message and still not be enough to change the result you've also got anti-Isreali jews in the riding though some of those might vote againt the Liberals for being too supportive of Israel along with some of the woke vote in the riding.

Uh, a by-election is required by law. The only time that a by-election doesn't need to be called is if the vacancy occurs in the nine months before the next general election. Since the next general election is 17 months away...

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Uh, a by-election is required by law. The only time that a by-election doesn't need to be called is if the vacancy occurs in the nine months before the next general election. Since the next general election is 17 months away...

Sorry should have said shocked he called it NOW. He could have waited until the fall.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The Liberals need someone who is a clear distinction from Trudeau and could legitimately say they are not tarnished by his incompetence and endless corruption. Of course, the person on everyone's mind is Carney. He has instant name recognition, solid understanding of finance and economics, is socially progressive, bilingual, a very competent communicator, is a strong supporter of fighting climate change, has no connection to the current gov't or even the Liberal Party, and due to being born in the NWT he couldn't be labelled as either a Golden Triangle boy or a Western hick. When asked about whether he would run he has never said he would but conversely never said he wouldn't which in gentile political diplomacy speak is about as firm a yes as one could get. I think the issue for Carney is not whether I want to run but rather do I want to run now.

He moved to Edmonton when he was 6. Raised from 6-onwards makes you western, to any extent that it matters.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by casper

LPC needs a wake-up call. I am shocked the call for new leadership is not stronger.

I would be less worried about the Israel issue. Canada response has been measured and balanced. I think there is even growing calls within Israel for increased restraint and a more disciplined and targeted action. Even the head of the Israel military is questioning the overall plan.

It's not clear that there is an overall plan, beyond keeping Netanyahu in power and continuing to fight until Hamas is no longer an issue. There is certainly no plan for what happens "after".

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

As far as why there hasn't been a bigger cry for Trudeau to step down, I think one of the problems is that they have no idea who could replace him. Freeland, Anaand, and Miller have Trudeau written all over them and the electorate would see no difference.

The Liberals need someone who is a clear distinction from Trudeau and could legitimately say they are not tarnished by his incompetence and endless corruption. Of course, the person on everyone's mind is Carney. He has instant name recognition, solid understanding of finance and economics, is socially progressive, bilingual, a very competent communicator, is a strong supporter of fighting climate change, has no connection to the current gov't or even the Liberal Party, and due to being born in the NWT he couldn't be labelled as either a Golden Triangle boy or a Western hick. When asked about whether he would run he has never said he would but conversely never said he wouldn't which in gentile political diplomacy speak is about as firm a yes as one could get. I think the issue for Carney is not whether I want to run but rather do I want to run now.

The Liberals are behind nationwide in every possible demographic group and perhaps Carney simply sees that is is too late to right the ship. Do I want to go from the Bank of Canada & England to sitting on the wrong side of the House for the next 5 years? Maybe I should let someone else take over and when they get pulverized in the next election and meaning they will have another leadership review in a few years, then I can take over.

A pity Frank McKenna is a bit long-in-the-tooth. The Libs could use a no-bullshit straight talker to wash away the twee and the twaddle. He would even attract some of the hayseeds who expectorate rabidly about the putative "woke" infiltration.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Sorry should have said shocked he called it NOW. He could have waited until the fall.

He couldn’t, the PM has 180 days from January.

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by jonny24

He moved to Edmonton when he was 6. Raised from 6-onwards makes you western, to any extent that it matters.

He still has family here.

As for not being labeled a laurentian elite. I will be surprised if he doesn't. Since he lives in Ontario now.

If he had moved back to Alberta that may have changed things.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Airboy

He still has family here.

As for not being labeled a laurentian elite. I will be surprised if he doesn't. Since he lives in Ontario now.

If he had moved back to Alberta that may have changed things.

He worked for Goldman Sachs and as a central banker. How is he not Laurentian elite? He isn't winning the anit-elite anti-WEF crowd anyway. He needs to win back the centrist suburbanites who have completley abandoned the Liberals. It's probably a hopeless cause but a bunch of miracles including some kind of Conservative self goal/gaffe could make it competitive with someone like him rather than Freeland Joly or whoever else will be seen as Trudeau lite.