Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by lio45

Cap rates in FL have been steadily going down to the point that I don't think I'll buy more there anytime soon (I might build, though.)

You are correct on the eviction side though, takes a few days only. It's just amazing (when used to Quebec). Aren't you in Alberta? I would have guessed eviction timelines are reasonable there...

I lived in Alberta at one point but now live in Ontario.

Fair note on Florida, you'd know better than me.

Originally Posted by lio45

It also probably fails to take into account that Canada is almost certainly positioned for the long run as a growing location in a warming world..

We have the second most arable land per capita in the entire world. Even if we double in population, there is plenty of usable land for everyone. Lack of land isn't our problem, governments at various levels preventing houses from being built are the problem. Under normal circumstances a sudden high number of migrants may cause house prices to go up, but then the market would adapt to the new demand. However in Canada this isn't allowed to happen due to various rules in place of what can and can't be built, to what extent, and where.

The only country with more arable land per capita than us is Australia, who ironically has an even worse housing bubble than us.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I lived in Alberta at one point but now live in Ontario.

Fair note on Florida, you'd know better than me.



We have the second most arable land per capita in the entire world. Even if we double in population, there is plenty of usable land for everyone. Lack of land isn't our problem, governments at various levels preventing houses from being built are the problem. Under normal circumstances a sudden high number of migrants may cause house prices to go up, but then the market would adapt to the new demand. However in Canada this isn't allowed to happen due to various rules in place of what can and can't be built, to what extent, and where.

The only country with more arable land per capita than us is Australia, who ironically has an even worse housing bubble than us.

I didn't realize that the housing situation in Australia is worse. Interesting.

I don't agree that governments are preventing the building of housing except in select municipalities. I live in a region where there is a huge demand for housing but next to no building due to lack of availability of home construction workers and super high labour costs for them.

Warmer temperatures have begun to revive agriculture in areas between Matheson and Hearst. Many Mennonites have moved up here and they certainly have no problem building homes and farms.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I didn't realize that the housing situation in Australia is worse. Interesting.

I don't agree that governments are preventing the building of housing except in select municipalities. I live in a region where there is a huge demand for housing but next to no building due to lack of availability of home construction workers and super high labour costs for them.

Warmer temperatures have begun to revive agriculture in areas between Matheson and Hearst. Many Mennonites have moved up here and they certainly have no problem building homes and farms.

What are you basing this on?
Timmins population declined from 2011 to 2016 and then again from 2016 to 2021. It's one of the few places in this country that isn't growing. I suspect the lack of housing being built has to do with lack of demand rather than anything to do with labour.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by theman23

What are you basing this on?
Timmins population declined from 2011 to 2016 and then again from 2016 to 2021. It's one of the few places in this country that isn't growing. I suspect the lack of housing being built has to do with lack of demand rather than anything to do with labour.

Houses attrite so there will always be some need to build houses for the people who live there.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

Houses attrite so there will always be some need to build houses for the people who live there.

OK, but if Loco's statement were true that would imply that the Timmins housing stock is exceptionally poor. Even so, it seems unlikely that would be able to shift the market dynamics towards one of "huge demand" in an area with a shrinking population.

[yaletown_fella]

Based on realtor.ca 1 bedrooms in Toronto have gone UP in the last year. A lot of greedy overleveraged sellers, and dumb realtors who think every unit in Toronto must be 500k or over. A lot are also fraudulently listing studio/bachelors as 1 bedrooms. I hope buyers start to smarten up to this dogma , but I'm not hopeful

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by theman23

What are you basing this on?
Timmins population declined from 2011 to 2016 and then again from 2016 to 2021. It's one of the few places in this country that isn't growing. I suspect the lack of housing being built has to do with lack of demand rather than anything to do with labour.

It's tedious.

There are markets that very much are unlike the situation the rest of Canada finds itself in. Timmins is that. Timmins has declined in population from 47k to 41k from 1996 to 2021. It represents 0.1% of Canada - its entire population could fit into the Skydome with empty seats left over. Canada has grown from 29 million to 38 million over that time and with jacked up growth rates of the past few years, sent us well over 40 million.

It is relatively affordable. They're asking $269k for this. Or $324k for that. There's much cheaper houses available too - those are some of the nicer examples. By historical standards, probably pricey. By the rest of the country standard? Practically a bargain. Probably for a reason. Nobody's building a house when already built ones are trading for such low values.

Perhaps if there is a local labour crunch, Northern College could relocate some of the 3,300 international students (70%+ of its enrollment) to Timmins from their GTA campus. Lord knows the GTA could use the relief.

[davidivivid]

I'd say that a mix of luck, good timing and relatively affordable real estate market (Quebec City) allowed us to move from C1/B2 to A. I sold my condo in 2021 and purchased what the promoter called a town house (condo) in a transitioning central neighbourhood. It was an off-plan property so we were able to change the floor plan to fit our needs and aesthetic preferences. We paid 320 000$ before taxes for a 1400 s.f., two storey unit with a covered parking and a 350 s.f. private rooftop terrace. Most importantly, we secured a 5 year, fixed 2.5% interest mortgage which we will have to renegotiate solely in march 2027. We bought before inflation and interest rates shot up so yeah, good timing.


Completely anecdotal but several friends who had moved to either Ottawa or Montreal about 10 years ago as young professionals have come back to Quebec City as parents in the last year, citing cheaper real estate as one of the main reasons for the move.

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I'm simplifying a bit, but I like to think of a "housing ladder", which is the housing situation people of different means and stages of their life can realistically slot into. It kind of goes something like this, from top to bottom:

A - Own your desired house, with no trade offs.

B1 - Own your desired house, but pay a mortgage slightly out of your means or make a trade-off (take in secondary suite renters)
B2 - Own a starter home that you don't really desire, as a trade-off for not going the B1 route

C1 - Own a starter home, but pay a mortgage slightly out of your means
C2 - Renting comfortably, but waiting to buy. A trade-off for not going the C1 route.

D1 - Rent a place that you like, but pay rent that is out of your means
D2 - Rent a place you don't like, as a trade-off for D1

E1 - Rent a place you don't like, but pay rent that is out of your means
E2 - Find a precarious arrangement that reduces your rent to something that is within your means: shacking up with a partner you didn't intend to shack up with; take in extra family against the rules in your lease, etc.

F1 - The precarious arrangement in E2 is what you aspire to on a good day. Otherwise, you're couch surfing.
F2 - Homeless

Since Covid, everybody I know who isn't in Group A has been knocked down a peg. I'm B2 because I refinanced in 2020 but if my mortgage comes up for renewal at the end of next year and rates are still like this, I'll be C1. My brother-in-law's household makes over $400,000 in Vancouver (VP and Sr. Manager), but they're B1. Twenty years ago they'd be A easily. I have single friends with entry-level professional jobs that are falling into E1 - they used to be D2 or even D1.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

A - Own your desired house, with no trade offs.

B1 - Own your desired house, but pay a mortgage slightly out of your means or make a trade-off (take in secondary suite renters)
B2 - Own a starter home that you don't really desire, as a trade-off for not going the B1 route

I'd say we're a blend of A and B2. Our house is really affordable, bought in 2018 and refinanced in 2021.

It's a great house, love the location and and the house what we've done to it.... BUT, we have a long term dream to have a house in the country with room for a shop, maybe a couple of animals.

But I don't think there would be any reasonable expectation of owning that now. That is to say, we are in a "starter house", that we do desire, because starter house is the phase we are in.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Market seems to have declined again here. Lots of properties under 150K, and on the market for a while.

Yep, prices are collapsing in more and more places throughout the country.
even rents are starting to go down in the most expensive markets.

[ZTrade]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

Based on realtor.ca 1 bedrooms in Toronto have gone UP in the last year. A lot of greedy overleveraged sellers, and dumb realtors who think every unit in Toronto must be 500k or over. A lot are also fraudulently listing studio/bachelors as 1 bedrooms. I hope buyers start to smarten up to this dogma , but I'm not hopeful

If those units sell for asking price or above, will you still call them greedy?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by theman23

What are you basing this on?
Timmins population declined from 2011 to 2016 and then again from 2016 to 2021. It's one of the few places in this country that isn't growing. I suspect the lack of housing being built has to do with lack of demand rather than anything to do with labour.

It might also be Timmons… people forget the Canadian climate is really not appealing for many immigrants. We just saw that in the past week. For many coming from warmer places Canadian winters are brutal, much more so than Western Europe or much of the USA.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It might also be Timmons… people forget the Canadian climate is really not appealing for many immigrants. We just saw that in the past week. For many coming from warmer places Canadian winters are brutal, much more so than Western Europe or much of the USA.

So Timmins is declining (immigrants don't like winter), but Edmonton is growing (immigrants don't mind winter)?

[theman23]

Originally Posted by thewave46

It's tedious.

There are markets that very much are unlike the situation the rest of Canada finds itself in. Timmins is that. Timmins has declined in population from 47k to 41k from 1996 to 2021. It represents 0.1% of Canada - its entire population could fit into the Skydome with empty seats left over. Canada has grown from 29 million to 38 million over that time and with jacked up growth rates of the past few years, sent us well over 40 million.

It is relatively affordable. They're asking $269k for this. Or $324k for that. There's much cheaper houses available too - those are some of the nicer examples. By historical standards, probably pricey. By the rest of the country standard? Practically a bargain. Probably for a reason. Nobody's building a house when already built ones are trading for such low values.

Perhaps if there is a local labour crunch, Northern College could relocate some of the 3,300 international students (70%+ of its enrollment) to Timmins from their GTA campus. Lord knows the GTA could use the relief.

Publicly funded colleges exist to provide the public service of education, but many of them have just turned into bloated make work projects who only exist for the sake of existing. If a college like Northern College fails because there aren't enough young people in Timmins, we should probably allow it to wither away and die. It's services are no longer necessary.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by theman23

What are you basing this on?
Timmins population declined from 2011 to 2016 and then again from 2016 to 2021. It's one of the few places in this country that isn't growing. I suspect the lack of housing being built has to do with lack of demand rather than anything to do with labour.

Since 2019 and especially since the Covid pandemic we have had a huge influx of people. We have at least 2000 students from India who attend Northern College. There are also many people moving here from other countries and from larger cities due to housing costing less. Many Cree people here live both here and on a reserve up North so not all get counted in Timmins when the census is done.

There is a huge demand for all types of housing here. Just Google "Timmins housing crisis" to see what I mean.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

So Timmins is declining (immigrants don't like winter), but Edmonton is growing (immigrants don't mind winter)?

Just within 5 houses of our house in the last few years we've had immigrants move here and remain here who are from India, Mexico, the Philippines, Honduras and Nigeria. They are surviving Winter and probably dislike it as much as I do but they are happy to have left corruption and other issues.

While Edmonton is much further North than Timmins, Timmins is colder.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by theman23

Publicly funded colleges exist to provide the public service of education, but many of them have just turned into bloated make work projects who only exist for the sake of existing. If a college like Northern College fails because there aren't enough young people in Timmins, we should probably allow it to wither away and die. It's services are no longer necessary.

Northern College like all colleges and universities in Ontario is a private business. Yes it does receive public funds but it's not operated by government. The college like many other post-secondary institutions has turned to getting more international students because the college makes more money with them due to paying much higher tuition fees. It's awful for the Indian students because they aren't getting a true college experience as they are in overflowing classes with classmates who are almost from India. I've talked with many who have been quite disappointed with their educational experience. But most like living in Timmins and like what it offers. I really don't like how the college has handled things and is using the Indian students.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

So Timmins is declining (immigrants don't like winter), but Edmonton is growing (immigrants don't mind winter)?

Edmonton is a big city and a government city. The problem for Canada is there aren’t a lot of large cities for people to choose from, unlike the USA. In my social media feeds I keep getting posts from some group called”Firgotten” or something similar. All these amazing old homes in the US and so cheap by Canadian standards. Sure, some of them are insmaller towns but they’re not that far from big cities. Canada doesn’t seem to have that.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Northern College like all colleges and universities in Ontario is a private business. Yes it does receive public funds but it's not operated by government. The college like many other post-secondary institutions has turned to getting more international students because the college makes more money with them due to paying much higher tuition fees. It's awful for the Indian students because they aren't getting a true college experience as they are in overflowing classes with classmates who are almost from India. I've talked with many who have been quite disappointed with their educational experience. But most like living in Timmins and like what it offers. I really don't like how the college has handled things and is using the Indian students.

Northern College is a publicly funded college and registered as a not for profit charity. It's mission is "Building community across the North through partnerships and excellence in education". I'm not sure how scamming international students at satellite campuses in the GTA accomplishes that.

It's possible that of the 2.5 million people that came to this country since 2021, a few thousand settled for Timmins. There really isn't any data yet to support your point. Likely that growth is almost entirely due to international students. Perhaps if we had a more coherent immigration plan there would not be so much difficulty in building enough housing for whatever nascent demand there may be.

[Truenorth00]

Apparently, student visa applications from India have dropped 86% in the last quarter of 2023.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../106920406.cms

Sincerely hope this is true and continues. For their sake. And ours.