Chicago - Mayoral Race - Rahm Emanuel Wins

[the urban politician]

^ Agree that this needs to be debated

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Agree that this needs to be debated

Kudos! I think especially in light of this census data with less than a week before February 22nd we really need more time for the top two candidates to discuss their plans for the city in dealing with this issue.

You know I was also thinking it is a good thing that Daley didn't run for re-election because if he was and it was a competitive race these census results would have come out only a week before and then his opponent(s) could have really hammered away at Daley blaming him for the population loss. The mantra of "Daley helped downtown but neglected the neighborhoods" would have really resonated with people. Given that its an open race for mayor the repsonsibility is difused since none of the candidates can really be held to blame but nevertheless it is an opportunity for discussion that I think needs to take longer than just the few days before the February 22nd election.

I also really believe that any notion of getting the residency requirement abolished is truly dead in the water now because of the census results. If the city had done well and even grown just a little bit people would have been more apathetic about the issue but since we lost 200K people I think many people will be very passionate in their vocal opposition to changing any residency requirement.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Alliance

As a former Chico supporter

aren't you living in NYC these days? are you allowed to vote absentee in local chicago elections?

[Chicago103]

Southwest News Herald endorses Gery Chico for Mayor. Not a surprise since Chico is the southwest side is a strong territory for him.

http://www.swnewsherald.com/news_ins...s_ed_chico.php
February 18, 2011 Southwest News-Herald - City & Suburban

News-Herald Says That Chico Is the Man

The Chicago Municipal election is just four days away. Mayoral and aldermanic candidates continue to stump for votes right up to the last minute in an effort to gain your vote.

And this is a year that voting does matter. We will eventually have a new mayor and perhaps new local aldermen. These are difficult times weighed by a staggering economy. Residents have to recognize that their vote may decide the future direction this city will take. The privilege of voting should not be taken lightly.

In the spirit of George Washington, our nation’s first president and whose birthday falls on Election Day, this should be a reminder of what our responsibilities are. If you have not already voted early, go out and vote on Tuesday.


* * *


Gery Chico, the former chief of staff to Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, is our choice as the next mayor of the city of Chicago. While we never professed that Rahm Emanuel, former chief of staff to President Obama and a former Chicago congressman, is an “outsider,” we do think that Chico is the real deal. He grew up in Chicago’s McKinley Park neighborhood and is a graduate of Kelly High School.

His blue collar roots — the son of a Mexican-American father and Greek-Lithuanian mother — has him grounded in Chicago’s work ethic. He was appointed as chief of staff to Daley and later became the school board president, park district board president and city college’s board chairman.

While his critics point to Chico’s years of tapping into government contracts to build up a fortune, we see a candidate who has worked hard and earned every penny. He is a hard-working leader who is known for his level-headed approach to problems. And while his other opponents continued to whine about Emanuel’s campaign war chest and his presence in the campaign, Chico stayed focus and continued to look at issues.

And he is not afraid to take Emanuel on. He has criticized Emanuel’s tax plan that would include taxing some services like tanning salons, limo rides, private clubs and pet grooming. Chico, 54, said that Emanuel’s tax proposal, which he refers to as the “Rahm Tax,” will hurt families who are already overburdened by high taxes. Emanuel has taken his criticism seriously because he countered with his own commercials defending the tax plan.

But our main reason for endorsing Chico is that he is a product of the Southwest Side and has a better understanding of the city’s neighborhoods. In short, we think our coverage area will get a better shake from Chico than the other candidates. He has also been endorsed by the Chicago Firefighter and Police unions.

His growing support includes being endorsed on Feb. 12 by a group of African-American ministers.

Emanuel is leading in the polls and has gained national support from the likes of former President Clinton. But while the business community has fawned over his candidacy and he continues to receive national attention, Emanuel needs a road map, or at least a GPS, to find the Southwest Side.

He has courted voters in Chicago’s Beverly neighborhood but has not made his way here. Why should we think Emanuel will suddenly recognize the Southwest Side if he becomes mayor?

Carol Moseley Braun, the first African-American woman elected to the U.S. Senate, was once the Cook County Recorder of Deeds and an ambassador to New Zealand. That is an impressive resume, but it does have cracks. While she did get legislation passed as a U.S. Senator, she was criticized for a lack of judgment.

While selected as the black consensus candidate, Braun’s campaign has sputtered from a lack of funds and unfortunate remarks. Braun, 63, is a likeable person but she continues to shoot herself in the foot, like her now infamous “strung out on crack” rant against opponent Patricia Van Pelt Watkins, who has registered only one percent in the polls.

Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle is a solid servant and well-intentioned leader. But he has not made his way to the city’s Southwest Side during the campaign. He is currently fourth in the polls.

Watkins, 53, is an impressive rags-to-riches story, a person who overcame drug addiction in her late teens who went back to high school and later earned a degree from college. Unfortunately, her campaign has faltered because of her low showing in the polls. William “Dock” Walls, 53, a perennial candidate and a former aide to the late Chicago Mayor Harold Washington, has also suffered from low poll numbers.


* * *

[Alliance]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

aren't you living in NYC these days? are you allowed to vote absentee in local chicago elections?

I am, and as much as I enjoy it, Chicago is still my first love, and i obviously care deeply about who the next mayor is. Without a residence in Chicago, I'm afraid I don't have a vote this time.

[SamInTheLoop]

(meant to include a "?" to punctuate title!! - it's an open question still to me)

So it seems as if a majority of polls in the last couple weeks have Emanuel's lead growing, right at about, or over the 50% mark. My question is, if voters are following the polls and see Rahm's huge lead still growing, will that actually cause turnout to be a bit lower than anticipated, and if so, would that, on net, help or hurt Rahm? I think you'd have voters on both sides - those in favor of Rahm and those leaning toward someone else, who would become less enthusiastic about getting to the polls, and on net it might be largely a wash - or, it might actually be a slight benefit to Rahm as Chico or Del Valle or CMB (if there are actually any left) supporters say "what's the use, we're going to lose anyway"?

Also, look for a huge push from Chico, in advertising and at appearances, to go hyper-negative on Rahm over the next 5 days, and increase the wrong-headed provincialism, ie 'Rahm's a filthy-rich outsider pampered on the north shore, and he's clearly not one of "us"'-type nonsense. Clearly Chico feels he has no other choice at this point, and is getting a little desperate as the clock runs out. Although I think the consensus and general evidence is that all things being equal negativity in campaigning is often effective, I'm wondering if it may turn off a decent portion of the undecideds that are left out there. What will Rahm's response be this weekend - to punch back even harder - he certainly could if he wanted to, obviously he has much, much more campaign cash than Chico. Or, would he be better advised to stay above the fray, as has been his strategy for the overwhelming majority of the campaign until now?

As it stands right now, I still think it's going to be very close as to whether Rahm can squeak past the 50% barrier. If the election were held today, I think he makes it past just barely, with 50-52% of the vote.

I know some feel that Chicago needs a runoff, that we'll be a better city for it, that the two candidates and ultimate winner (which would still by a wide margin be Emanuel) will be a better mayor for it. I've wrestled with this admittedly-tempting train of thought as well, and I think in theory it makes a lot of sense and offers a certain satisfaction, but ultimately I don't buy the argument. In what alternate reality do people live in that in modern day America, we have campaigns in which the issues are thoroughly debated in an honest, comprehensive, thoughtful way instead of pandering soundbites? You're always left with broad outlines of policy tendencies, historical records, personalities, and ultimately a leap of faith on what results you think your candidate might be best placed to produce, which candidate is most likely to move the city in the right direction, fixing the major, ultimately crippling problems we're facing........Also, given the strong council-weak mayor form of government we have, the fact that we have 30-35 too many councilmen, and the fact that many of them are at any given time, wacky, corrupt, incompetent, ineffectual, and quite frankly stupid representatives, I think it's actually essential we get a mayor (that in addition to being the most likely to move this city in the right direction and push thru very strong reforms) that is very strong, and with a strong mandate - more than 50% on Feb 22 for Rahm strengthens the mandate part. Also, another reason I would like to see this finished on Tuesday is because the aldermanic elections have been completely overlooked with voters and media so laser-focused on the mayoral race. There's going to be a lot of change on the council and I want a lot of the new entrants to be the right ones.....pro-business and pro-development interests in this city need to step-up their game to get behind the right aldermanic contenders and challenge the dominance of special interest union support for council races. Here's just one example: In the 2nd ward, it's quite important to get Genita Robinson into the seat to replace the patently awful Fioretti. Robinson is by far, by far, I tell you - by far, the best candidate in the 2nd ward race. Just one of many examples.


Also, one last thought - that article by the SW side paper endorsing Chico said something that was quite difficult to believe - I find it nearly impossible to believe that both Emanuel and Del Valle have not campaigned at all in the entire SW side over the last couple months - I mean they're campainging across the city every single day, and they haven't yet made it to the entire SW side??.....I don't believe that for one second and would need to see some sort of documentation on that one.....

[ametz]

So we’re in the home stretch, and I’m taking my last, close look at Chico and Rahm (no point in bothering with the rest of the field at this stage). Is anyone else having trouble viewing the .pdf files in the ‘issues’ section of http://www.gerychico.com? None are loading for me. It’s not a browser issue (tried Firefox & IE), not a provider or router issue (no traffic being blocked), and not a pdf issue (others are loading fine). Maybe his servers? Whatever….I’m reading Rahm’s right now, and here are some points under his ‘economic’ heading that jump out for me:

- private/public partnership that mentors high schoolers and leaves them with an industry specific certification or equivalent (I’m in the I.T. industry and for me, this is of paramount importance. I would love to be able to hire and mentor knowledgeable local high school kids )
- I.T. campus based on the Google model that mixes disciplines, is close to transit, and has bike facilities. Yes, bike facilities!
- Single point online access for businesses to interact with the city bureaucracy- file for permits, submit bids, even submit things like pics to prove compliance with city codes (ie, restaurant inspections)
- Transportation initiatives that include the red line expansion to 130th, development of city land parcels to be used for car sharing, expansion of bike lanes, redevelopment of the lake calumet port, and upgrading of rail freight lines. With regard to freight especially, I’m hoping Rahm can finagle some federal money to improve and expand this infrastructure as a bottleneck in Chicago affects the nation (a la O’Hare), and I think it’s been proven that re-routing this traffic to other regions is only part of the solution.




There’s other stuff in there that sounds just dandy, but I don’t need to parrot everything from Rahm’s site, and the issues above are the ones that speak to me and that I think can be implemented, even in our current climate. On that note, I’d be curious to know if any of you fellow forumers who may be involved or have knowledge of how these endeavors might play out in the real world…are these goals feasible in the immediate future, or are some of these proposals pie-in-the-sky?

And as far as manufacturing in the city, I understand that the simple manufacturing of cheap goods has, sensibly, moved to the third world. What I’d like to see is a laser focus on skilled and complex manufacturing in the mold of present day Germany. I see a lot of characteristics in the German model that Chicago can ape, so long as we make a concerted effort to encourage niche manufacturing and provide the necessary training. A link to a recent article in the Economist about the German resurgence:

http://www.economist.com/node/18061718

[Nowhereman1280]

I like that he's put redeveloping the Calumet port as a priority. There has been a recent uptick in activity in the far south side industrial wasteland as extremely heavy industry begins to return to the United States. Chicago is well positioned to reap the benefits of any re-industrialization of the United States as long as we can keep our infrastructure modern and make our industrial areas appealing places to construct high-tech automated assemblies. We have the best transit infrastructure for industry, we just need to update our industrial wastelands to be as appealing as a virgin field in the suburbs for the construction of sprawling, sparkling new, assembly and manufacturing facilities.

[ChiTownCity]

I'm not sure why they would but has any of the candidates made any comments on Chicago's Tree Initiative?

[Chicago103]

For what it is worth, predictions on what percetange of the vote each candidate will recieve.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward...116469568.html

Throughout the campaign season, WARD ROOM has provided weekly mayoral odds, handicapping the February 22 contest. For the final mayoral odds post before the big night, we've added a wrinkle, we're taking a stab at predicting what percentage of the vote each candidate will receive on election night.

RAHM EMANUEL: Throughout the campaign, I’ve heard that all the candidates’ internal polling numbers have Emanuel between 40 and 45 percent. Something tells me he’s still there. If Emanuel thought he was headed for a landslide, first-round victory next Tuesday, he would have let union leader Jim Sweeney’s “Judas” comment slide. Instead, he cried anti-Semitism, indulging in the kind of identity politics he’s promised to end by winning with a multi-racial coalition. After spending most of the campaign ignoring his opponents, Emanuel also aired an ad attacking Chico for attacking his tax plan. Thursday’s debate was a wash. Emanuel was disengaged and recited his platform instead of debating, but even when moderator Ron Magers invited his opponents to take a shot at him for earning $18 million in two years, they didn’t reveal any new information.
PREDICTION: 46 percent.

GERY CHICO: Chico has hammered Emanuel all week. He’s attacked his rival for growing up in the “safety and privilege” of Wilmette. He’s called him a “pathological evader of the truth” for sending city workers a letter telling them their pensions won’t be cut. He’s accused him of “trying to divide the city along religious lines” for calling the “Judas” comment anti-Semitic. During Thursday’s debate, he tried to ask Emanuel about his role in the Freddie Mac accounting scandal that “cost the taxpayers $585 million.” Is this the desperation of a second-place candidate trying to claw his way into a runoff, or a warmup for Round Two? Both. PREDICTION: 24 percent

CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN: This week, Moseley Braun received the endorsement of the Chicago Defender. While expressing disappointment at her “petty arguments with marginal candidates,” (calling Patricia Watkins a crackhead), the Defender concluded the “Carol Moseley is clearly the most qualified. She has expressed a vision for Chicago that doesn’t hide behind Daley’s machine, that doesn’t stress Washington connections…and isn’t built upon community activism and little else.” Take that Chico, Emanuel and del Valle. Moseley Braun has no support outside the black community, so she’s depending on her constituency to make the runoff. In Thursday’s debate, she tried to rally her base by claiming Emanuel had voted against the Congressional Black Caucus 128 times. But thanks to her gaffes, and Obama’s endorsement of Emanuel, she’ll be lucky to get half. Also, as the Census figures released this week showed us, Chicago’s black community is shrinking. PREDICTION: 14 percent

MIGUEL DEL VALLE: All my friends are voting for Miguel del Valle. That only means that I live too far north and hang out with too many hipsters and non-profit employees. Del Valle has run the most valiant campaign of any candidate. With almost no money, he has spoken out for political reform, neighborhood empowerment, getting the city out of Chicagoans’ by suing to overturn the parking meter deal -- all the issues the better-funded winner will ignore once he becomes mayor. It’s been inspiring to watch del Valle, who began this race as a mild-mannered city clerk, find his voice as the populist champion of the downtrodden and the fed-up. He gave the most sensible answer at Thursday’s debate, calling Emanuel’s service tax proposal ludicrous, because this General Assembly will never approve another tax increase. Unfortunately for del Valle, Latinos and progressives won't put him over the top. PREDICTION: 13 percent

PATRICIA WATKINS: Gets an extra sympathy point for being called a crackhead.


PREDICTION: 2 percent



WILLIAM “DOCK” WALLS: Nanotechnology is not an idea whose time has come. Walls is not a candidate whose time has come, either.


PREDICTION: 1 percent



Source: http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward...#ixzz1EMNEAIME

[Steely Dan]

so, tomorrow is the big day. anyone care to make their final predictions?

here's mine:

emanuel: 52.5%
chico: 19.5%
del valle: 7%
ditka: 3%
watkins: 2%
walls: 1%
braun: (-15%)

[Nowhereman1280]

IMHO:

Emmanuel 50.1% (triggers obnoxious recount, etc.)
Chico 24%
Braun 15%
Del Valle 14%
Watkins 2%
Undecided 5%

Yes my opinion is 5% undecided. That 5% stands for all the other little candidates. My numbers add up to 110.1% because I'm sure that there will be more votes than voters being Chicago and all.

My opinion also has a margin of error of +/- 3%



Everyone remember to get out and vote tomorrow! Don't forget to vote early and vote often!

[Chicago103]

I am going with the ward room predictions I posted above:
Bold candidates will advance to a runoff on April 5th.

Rahm Emanuel 46%
Gery Chico 24%
Caol Moseley Braun 14%
Miguel Del Valle 13%
Patricia Van Pelt Watkins 2%
William Doc Walls 1%

Given that I think Watkins and Walls might to better than expected taking away votes from Braun or possibly even Emanuel it increases the chance of a runoff even more.

I think alot of the non-Rahm candidates have very good get out the vote ground operations and will increase turnout. I percieve an enthusiasm gap for Rahm in that alot of people may say they will vote for him in polls but are likely not that informed or have lukewarm support making their votes a bit more fluid and perceptable to other candidates swininging them over or perhaps some of them won't even vote at all. It seems the other candidates have very loyal supporters, Rahm may have just as large a group of core supporters or slightly larger but alot of lukewarm people that are just going with the flow. The internal polls I think will show to be more accurate, I think even Rahm knows this as he is saying now that it might take "two bites out of the apple instead of one". He would never admit this publicly as he wants people to believe he will be over 50% but he knows what his own internal numbers are saying. He may feel very confident he will win on April 5th but less so about tommorow night wining outright.

People have brought up interesting recount possibilities, if it is just above 50% the other candidates might try to get a recount and what would they have to lose. However if it is just below 50%, aka 49.5%+ I think Rahm will just let it slide and procede with the runoff becasue it would look bad otherwise. Much less likely is that Rahm gets less than 50% and the votes between Chico and Carol Moseley Braun are close enough to warent a recount but that is much less likely than it was a month or so ago before Carol imploded. I however strongly believe it will be a runoff, best case scenario for Rahm he gets 49%.

So bottom line is I am predicting a Rahm Emanuel/Gery Chico runoff.

[Attrill]

Looks like snow tomorrow, so...

Rahm Emanuel 42%
Gery Chico 22%
Miguel DelValle 21%
Carol Moseley Braun 10%
Other 5%

Recount called to determine if DelValle or Chico goes into the runoff.

[the urban politician]

Based on the tone of this Financial Times article, Emanuel's election to Mayor is just a formality

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Based on the tone of this Financial Times article, Emanuel's election to Mayor is just a formality

I can't access that page unless I am a member but that is not the best thing to post if you are a Rahm Emanuel supporter it only emboldens people who are reluctant to support him to go to the other candidates. Do we want the people of Chicago to decide for themselves or let some London newspaper hypnotise people into thinking it is over? I am all for Chicago as a global city but at the same time I don't believe in voting for who the globalists say we should or else. Granted some in the local media have been saying the same things but my point is what kind of point are you trying to make? Is this about trying to make a convincing case for Rahm, showoffmanship or just don't shoot the messenger but this is what the international press is saying?

@Attril, are you a Miguel Del Valle supporter? I am one who doesn't have much faith in some of the polls but what you just posted is a bit out there. I do however think that something like weather could be bad for Emanuel's turnout, it has to do with the enthusiasm gap I mentioned earlier. The other candidates have such loyal supporters that nothing will probably stop them from going to the polls but some of Rahm's supporters are probably affected by such things, again not all but I do think there are enough lukewarm Rahm supporters out there that such things can swing his support a number of percentage points.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Chicago103

Do we want the people of Chicago to decide for themselves or let some London newspaper hypnotise people into thinking it is over? I am all for Chicago as a global city but at the same time I don't believe in voting for who the globalists say we should or else.

^ This is remarkably silly statement. The people of Chicago are going to decide. That has always been the case.

But whether it be tommorrow or April, it is extremely likely that the person they choose will be Rahm.

And regarding the article, I'm sorry you can't access it, but the article makes no effort to convince anybody of anything. It just discusses how politics in Chicago would change with Rahm as Mayor.

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ This is remarkably silly statement. The people of Chicago are going to decide. That has always been the case.

But whether it be tommorrow or April, it is extremely likely that the person they choose will be Rahm.

And regarding the article, I'm sorry you can't access it, but the article makes no effort to convince anybody of anything. It just discusses how politics in Chicago would change with Rahm as Mayor.

Can you put at least part of the text of the article here on the thread? I tried to become a member so I can read it but somehow I am having trouble. Also the statement I made was not so much literal as just pondering as to what your point was in saying that a London newspaper was saying this election is just a formality, were you just saying it as a point of fact vis a vis the content of the article or was it your attempt to push Rahm as a candidate. I do take issue with calling a race of this magnitude as just a formality, this is the first time in 22 years that there is a competitve race for mayor of this city and hearing that a non-incumbent like Rahm has this race as just a formality only emboldens me more in saying that this race needs a runoff regardless of who will become mayor and how high or low the odds are for each of them.

If formality was not your personal opinion and just matter of factly stating what the article says then it was not meant to be a swipe at you personally.

Also as I said I know in a literal sense that the people of Chicago are going to have a voice but at the same time a sense of inevitability can supress voter turnout. There was talk on Chicago tonight and elsewhere that surprisingly there is a relative lack of enthusiasm for the mayor's race and the implication was that this was because of Rahm's percieved inevitability. I think a runoff would actually engage more voters to come out and make an informed decision, so many people even living in this city have such a cynical view of Chicago politics that many are discouraged from voting because they feel they don't have a choice that factors more powerfull than themselves have already made the decision. I think if Rahm had to wait until April 5th for outright victory people will feel this way less so but if it is over tommorrow I think many in this city will just go on with their cynical views that there vote doesn't really matter. It is pretty dissapointing if the biggest tetonic shift in Chicago politics in 22 years simply ends in round one with a candidate that was talked about day one with all the influence and money in the world and in my view only ran a C+ grade campaign at that. Its not so much anti-Rahm as it is does this guy really deserve to get it this easily? Also I think an runoff will make Emanuel or Chico a much better runoff, to actually fight to get votes and realize that the people of this city are not just a bunch of yes men and women.

[Chicago103]

Ok, I just read the article and while I found the title to be a bit obnoxious it didn't really say anything about inevitability aside from just by implication.

It does bring up a number of interesting points about the city council and the council wars. I know some may find this an odd position but I actually think a run-off will lessen the likelyhood of council wars. If there is no runoff then the supporters of all the other candidates will be that much more bitter and simply hate Emanuel for that reason, if he wins in a runoff I think more of the people who did not vote for him might be convinced to like him if he does a good job. I honestly believe that there will be more of an us vs. them mentality if there is no runoff, not along racial lines like in the 1980's but rather in regards to geographic segments of the city. I think a powerfull bunch of southwest side alderman and many of the people on the southwest side will view Emanuel as an enemy who only cares about the parts of the city who voted for him. I see this very thing already in my area around Midway Airport, they are scared if there is no runoff that Rahm Emanuel will meddle with aldermanic runoffs here and punish alderman who did not support him. A runoff would mean that Rahm would be more likely to work with opponents in my view and calm the fears of those in some parts of the city. Its strange because the southwest side has been amongst the most staunch supporters of Richard M. Daley going all the way back to his unsuccessfull mayoral bid in 1983 and yet at the same time it is home of the biggest anti-Rahm sentiment in the city. They liked the old boss but don't like this new would be boss. No runoff will actually make Ed Burke more powerfull and not less.

[SamInTheLoop]

I'll go with:

Emanuel 50.1%
Chico 20.3%
Mosely-Braun 14.0%
Del Valle 8.2%
All others combined 7.5%