Official Fredericton, NB projects thread

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Freddypop

While I realize that comparing CMAs to CAs is like comparing apples to oranges one should also remember that Oromocto/Base Gagetown is not part of the Fredericton CA and not included any any official numbers. That additional population would however bring the 2 cities populations closer.

Read more of the news article this AM. Don't know where or how they are calculating their numbers but they were quoted as saying that based on their work Fredericton would be the only city in Canada to increase by 50% in the next 25 years. I find that hard to believe ...at least until I see the details of their methodology

Agreed we will know more in February.

Essentially, the only way Fredericton's CA will increase by 50% is by including Oromocto/Harvey-Kingsclear/New Maryland into a larger Fredericton CMA. Here's an example:

All figures are 2011 Census populations:

FREDERICTON 56,224
NEW MARYLAND TOWN 4,232
NEW MARYLAND PARISH 2,466
OROMOCTO 8,932
LINCOLN PARISH 6,458
BURTON PARISH 5,421
DOUGLAS PARISH 6,081
MAUGERVILLE PARISH 1,776
SAINT MARYS PARISH 4,733
STANLEY VILLAGE & PARISH 1,322
KINGSCLEAR 7,391

TOTAL 105,036

Tada! There's your 50% increase, more or less. For these "experts" to be correct all that needs to happen is for Fredericton's CA to pass 100K, become a CMA, and to include all of these surrounding areas. Because Fredericton's workforce is heavily dependent on commuter traffic from all of these areas (or, at least, all of these areas provide commuters to Fredericton) it'll be easy to include them all in the greater CMA for the 2021 Census.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Commuting patterns likely mean Oromocto won't be included in any CA/CMA estimate. Intuitively, Oromocto should be part of the greater Fredericton metropolitan region, but this is not the case as far as the bean counters are concerned.

Indeed. Of all commuters that reside in Oromocto 70% of them commute to work within Oromocto whilst 18% of Oromocto residents commute to Fredericton for work. IIRC the outlying community has to have 50% (or perhaps slightly lower) of their commuting workforce commuting into the urban centre to be considered as part of the greater CMA. As a comparison, 90% of workforce commuters living in New Maryland commute to Fredericton.

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Essentially, the only way Fredericton's CA will increase by 50% is by including Oromocto/Harvey-Kingsclear/New Maryland into a larger Fredericton CMA. Here's an example:

All figures are 2011 Census populations:

FREDERICTON 56,224
NEW MARYLAND TOWN 4,232
NEW MARYLAND PARISH 2,466
OROMOCTO 8,932
LINCOLN PARISH 6,458
BURTON PARISH 5,421
DOUGLAS PARISH 6,081
MAUGERVILLE PARISH 1,776
SAINT MARYS PARISH 4,733
STANLEY VILLAGE & PARISH 1,322
KINGSCLEAR 7,391

TOTAL 105,036

Tada! There's your 50% increase, more or less. For these "experts" to be correct all that needs to happen is for Fredericton's CA to pass 100K, become a CMA, and to include all of these surrounding areas. Because Fredericton's workforce is heavily dependent on commuter traffic from all of these areas (or, at least, all of these areas provide commuters to Fredericton) it'll be easy to include them all in the greater CMA for the 2021 Census.



Indeed. Of all commuters that reside in Oromocto 70% of them commute to work within Oromocto whilst 18% of Oromocto residents commute to Fredericton for work. IIRC the outlying community has to have 50% (or perhaps slightly lower) of their commuting workforce commuting into the urban centre to be considered as part of the greater CMA. As a comparison, 90% of workforce commuters living in New Maryland commute to Fredericton.

One other note from the article is that they are assuming that Freddy proper grows at a rate of 1200 per year, outlying areas at a slower rate

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Freddypop

One other note from the article is that they are assuming that Freddy proper grows at a rate of 1200 per year, outlying areas at a slower rate

That's probably not a bad assumption given the trends we've seen in the past few decades

MUNICIPALITY / 1991 / 1996 / 2001 / 2006 / 2011
FREDERICTON / 46,466 / 46,507 / 47,560 / 50,535 / 56,224
NEW MARYLAND (t) / 3,893 / 4,284 / 4,284 / 4,248 / 4,232
DOUGLAS (p) / 5,237 / 5,666 / 5,719 / 5,774 / 6,081
LINCOLN (p) / 4,508 / 5,349 / 5,548 / 5,764 / 6,458
BURTON (p) / 3,833 / 4,601 / 5,000 / 5,019 / 5,421
KINGSCLEAR / 5,055 / 5,844 / 6,653 / 6,689 / 7,391

[Taeolas]

So the big announcement on Tuesday is the ReadyPass app is going out of beta. Well maybe they'll have some hints on more things after; and it does need to be publicized; but since I'm already using it, it's a bit disappointing. Still, it'll be interesting to see what else they have planned for it.

Also, it looks like they are doing a bit of a Post Mortem on the Summer Construction season, and there's a nice graph at the end of the PDF showing what's run long. (Poor, poor Greenwood Avenue. That was rough.)

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by JHikka

That's probably not a bad assumption given the trends we've seen in the past few decades

MUNICIPALITY / 1991 / 1996 / 2001 / 2006 / 2011
FREDERICTON / 46,466 / 46,507 / 47,560 / 50,535 / 56,224
NEW MARYLAND (t) / 3,893 / 4,284 / 4,284 / 4,248 / 4,232
DOUGLAS (p) / 5,237 / 5,666 / 5,719 / 5,774 / 6,081
LINCOLN (p) / 4,508 / 5,349 / 5,548 / 5,764 / 6,458
BURTON (p) / 3,833 / 4,601 / 5,000 / 5,019 / 5,421
KINGSCLEAR / 5,055 / 5,844 / 6,653 / 6,689 / 7,391

Agreed. But want to see there rationale/methodology in detail. So many variables ie Mactaquac rebuild/Sisson will benefit Freddy, Pipeline will benefit YSJ, etc. But what is obvious is that on the present trend, should it continue, Freddy would eventually pass YSJ.

Myself... I want to see YSJ succeed as that is good for the Province just as I cheer for YQM now with their success.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Freddypop

Myself... I want to see YSJ succeed as that is good for the Province just as I cheer for YQM now with their success.

It doesn't really matter to me where exactly the growth is as long as NB's general growth patterns are focused on its urban centres (Moncton, SJ, Freddy). It's unfortunate having three medium-sized cities instead of one large one but we have to live with that fact. All three growing in the 2016 Census would be a good direction to be heading in, and Fredericton is certainly doing its part in that.

[Tridus]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

So the big announcement on Tuesday is the ReadyPass app is going out of beta. Well maybe they'll have some hints on more things after; and it does need to be publicized; but since I'm already using it, it's a bit disappointing. Still, it'll be interesting to see what else they have planned for it.

Also, it looks like they are doing a bit of a Post Mortem on the Summer Construction season, and there's a nice graph at the end of the PDF showing what's run long. (Poor, poor Greenwood Avenue. That was rough.)

I'm not sure which one has been worse in terms of both delays and communciation of what the problem is: Greenwood or the Regent Overpass.

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by JHikka

It doesn't really matter to me where exactly the growth is as long as NB's general growth patterns are focused on its urban centres (Moncton, SJ, Freddy). It's unfortunate having three medium-sized cities instead of one large one but we have to live with that fact. All three growing in the 2016 Census would be a good direction to be heading in, and Fredericton is certainly doing its part in that.

In think they each have their different strengths etc. Like Fredericton for example I'd say is the education and administrative centre, Saint John with its port is a shipping and industrial led city, and Moncton is more led my regional distribution and retail as well as banking and tech companies. I'm not saying that here isn't those things in the other cities, but rather in terms of how they related to each cities local economies.
Ideally though, the 3 cities provide all the same things that Halifax does. Halifax however is bigger as all of the emenities are in one place rather spread 3 hours apart.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

In think they each have their different strengths etc. Like Fredericton for example I'd say is the education and administrative centre, Saint John with its port is a shipping and industrial led city, and Moncton is more led my regional distribution and retail as well as banking and tech companies. I'm not saying that here isn't those things in the other cities, but rather in terms of how they related to each cities local economies.
Ideally though, the 3 cities provide all the same things that Halifax does. Halifax however is bigger as all of the emenities are in one place rather spread 3 hours apart.

Fredericton has a stronger tech sector than Moncton IMO. I'd say tech is one of the three pillars of the Fredericton economy along with education and government.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by OliverD

Fredericton has a stronger tech sector than Moncton IMO. I'd say tech is one of the three pillars of the Fredericton economy along with education and government.

Moncton has strengths in light manufacturing in addition to transportation, distribution and retail. Education is more important in Moncton than a lot of people realize. I came across a document recently stating that there were 13,500 post secondary students (of all kinds) in the greater Moncton region, including 7,500 at the three universities. Health care is a big employer too, apparently with over 10,000 people in the sector. As Josh pointed out, banking and insurance are important as well (Assomption Vie, Medavie Blue Cross, RBC, Tangerine Bank, Banque Nationale).

There is a tech sector in Moncton, but it's focus tends to be on the gaming industry. There are probably about 1,500 people employed in the gaming sector in Moncton in one way or another.......

[josh_cat_eyes]

I'm not sure if the numbers, but my point basically was that each city had important cogs that's major cities usually have. And so when you combine them together it would be a pretty big city with a lot to offer similar to Halifax.

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by OliverD

Fredericton has a stronger tech sector than Moncton IMO. I'd say tech is one of the three pillars of the Fredericton economy along with education and government.

I strongly agree with you on this one. Over 70% of NB's knowledge industry is located in the Capital Region. Certainly other locations do have have their knowledge diamonds but Freddy leads the pack re raw numbers led by the NRC Centre, RPC, Siemens, IBM and Planet Hatch to name a few. Factor in the recent purchases of Freddy-based companies Radian 6 and Q1 Labs (total near $1 Billion) leaving approx 50 millionaires in the local area, many who have stated up new and successful companies since. Cyber Security is the next big thing and the province has already targeted Freddy to be the Centre of Excellence.

https://fdi.ignitefredericton.com/labour-force

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Moncton has strengths in light manufacturing in addition to transportation, distribution and retail. Education is more important in Moncton than a lot of people realize. I came across a document recently stating that there were 13,500 post secondary students (of all kinds) in the greater Moncton region, including 7,500 at the three universities. Health care is a big employer too, apparently with over 10,000 people in the sector. As Josh pointed out, banking and insurance are important as well (Assomption Vie, Medavie Blue Cross, RBC, Tangerine Bank, Banque Nationale).

There is a tech sector in Moncton, but it's focus tends to be on the gaming industry. There are probably about 1,500 people employed in the gaming sector in Moncton in one way or another.......

Don't forget that other "new" industry that is starting to flourish in Moncton....marijuana!

[Blue Blazer]

Originally Posted by Freddypop

Don't forget that other "new" industry that is starting to flourish in Moncton....marijuana!

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

In think they each have their different strengths etc. Like Fredericton for example I'd say is the education and administrative centre, Saint John with its port is a shipping and industrial led city, and Moncton is more led my regional distribution and retail as well as banking and tech companies. I'm not saying that here isn't those things in the other cities, but rather in terms of how they related to each cities local economies.
Ideally though, the 3 cities provide all the same things that Halifax does. Halifax however is bigger as all of the emenities are in one place rather spread 3 hours apart.

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

I'm not sure if the numbers, but my point basically was that each city had important cogs that's major cities usually have. And so when you combine them together it would be a pretty big city with a lot to offer similar to Halifax.

The only difference being that if they were all located in one city they would only be 5-15 minutes apart. Right now they're an hour/hour and a half apart. Not entirely the same. Organizing and centralizing all of these services becomes infinitely easier on governments overseeing them and residents using them, as well as the service-providers themselves.

As an example, the main cities share hospitals between them. A larger city can lower the number of hospitals by ways of efficiency, provision of services, and immediate patient-base. Each city has a convention centre. Each city has an airport. There's a ton of duplication between the three NB cities which combined wouldn't exist.

A single, larger city gets more exposure on the national stage, gets larger retail options from larger chains, gets more attention from the business community for its size, and has plenty of more options that larger cities generally receive. Smaller individual cities cannot sustain them each on their own, so they simply don't exist. That's the major difference.

I'm not trying to talk down to any of the cities - it's just highly unfortunate NB ended up going down this path as opposed to every other province in this country.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JHikka

I'm not trying to talk down to any of the cities - it's just highly unfortunate NB ended up going down this path as opposed to every other province in this country.

Not every other province. AB has codominant cities (Calgary & Edmonton). So does SK (Regina & Saskatoon).

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Not every other province. AB has codominant cities (Calgary & Edmonton). So does SK (Regina & Saskatoon).

NB's the only with three, and the only one where its Capital isn't at least it's second largest city (for now).

[Taeolas]

Some news on the Kingswood expansion project

"It was so nice to see the work beginning and the foundation go in. It did take a long time, but it is a huge process to develop one of these hotels [and] find a brand," Johnson said Monday on Information Morning Fredericton.

"My goal is to make Kingswood the number one tourist destination site in Atlantic Canada."

Besides the resort hotel, Johnson noted to realize that goal, the expansion needed a water park.

He said the tubular fibreglass slides are going to be "10 to 12 years ahead" of slides at other water parks. The plan is for a 10-metre high by 28-metre wide climbing structure with four slides that can accommodate about 100 people at a time. Construction on the condominiums is expected to begin next year. He said an additional 120 people will be employed at the resort after the expansion.

[Freddypop]

I for one don't mind a 3 medium sized city province. Each is unique in its own right and offers citizens more options as to where they can live and still have relatively easy access to amenities. I much prefer NB's situation than that of NS where the province continues to empty out at the expense of Halifax.

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Some news on the Kingswood expansion project

Should note that the hotel is a 4.5 star hotel...high quality and will fit in nicely to the Kingswood and compliment the Capital region amenities nicely!