CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[Chicago103]

And then there were 5, the final candidate list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago...election,_2015

##Rahm Emanuel, incumbent Mayor[2][3][4]
##Robert Fioretti, Chicago City Alderman[2][5]
##Jesús "Chuy" García, Cook County Commissioner and former State Senator
##William "Dock" Walls, community activist, businessman, former aide to Mayor Harold Washington and perennial candidate
##Willie Wilson, medical supply company executive

Frankly I am rather disappointed in this mayoral election so far, I really think a runoff would be healthy for Chicago even if it still means Rahm Emanuel will likely win. Compared to four years ago there is far less media coverage and Rahm's opponents are far less organized and behind in the game this time around. I am almost starting to think the Chicago municipal election schedule needs to be revised. Maybe we can do what Los Angeles does, have the Mayor/Treasurer/CityClerk/Aldermen sworn in on July 1 (instead of mid-May), the runoff date would be mid-May (instead of April 7) and the main election would be April 7 (instead of February 24th). There simply is not enough time between the state races in November and the municipal elections, there is too much voter fatigue (I know it sounds silly to those of us who are actually informed and care about politics). The media is still talking much more about Governor-elect Rauner than the Mayoral race.

I share the skepticism people on here have about Bob Fioretti for reasons that have been discussed over and over again. Chuy Garcia on the other hand does have a background in urban planning (Master's in Urban Planning from UIC, full disclosure so do I so I might be biased) and he has worked at several levels of government, as an Alderman, State Senator and now Cook County Commissioner. Granted I think he needs to talk about his experience much more and stop talking about silly pet issues ($15 minimum wage, red light cameras, Lucas Museum, some random corrupt school board member, etc.) that you might agree or disagree with him about but frankly won't help him defeat Rahm Emanuel or even get him into a runoff.

Frankly he is a far better candidate than Karen Lewis, she should have announced she was not running far earlier and Chuy should have entered the race without waiting for her. Chuy needs to move beyond his progressive base and get more support from whites who live on the fringes of the city such policemen, firemen and city workers who don't like Rahm, i.e. many of the people who voted for Gery Chico last time (Chico endorsed Rahm but it need not matter much, there is tons of dissatisfaction out there), granted Bob Fioretti could get that vote as well. Willie Wilson just did a terrible interview on Chicago Tonight and frankly won't get votes outside the black community despite his money, but his money could help Garcia or Fioretti get into a runoff with Rahm, and William Walls is just a perennial candidate with token support in the black community.

The problem is that many business owners in the outer neighborhoods are concerned about Chicago raising the minimum wage and rightly so, it won't matter much to business owners downtown or on the north side because that is almost it's own market but for entrepreneurs considering either Garfield Ridge or Berwyn, Evergreen Park or Beverly, Park Ridge or Edison Park, Rogers Park or Evanston, etc. the labor costs between city and suburbs could make a big difference especially if the state does not raise the minimum wage in due time. What Rahm and the city council should have done is just raise it to $10 an hour on July 1st (as it will) and forget about the incremental to $13 by 2019. Fioretti and Garcia trying to out do Rahm Emanuel on minimum wage by proposing $15 an hour and is a losing prospect on simple political terms alone without even discussing the potential economic ones, fair or not Rahm has won on that issue, they need to move on to other stuff that will make traction on Rahm's weak points.

[ardecila]

Yeah none of the candidates have bothered to put forward a positive vision for what they would do if elected. Rahm has a track record to run on, and he is hosting a series of speeches right now where he is outlining his plan for the second term.

It won't be enough to convince the haters but it's light years ahead of the bitching and moaning coming from the chorus of challengers.

[Steely Dan]

with the nice weather we had over the weekend i went on two walks through my neighborhood (edgewater) on saturday and sunday to get outside and enjoy some sun and fresh air. over the course of the 4 miles of city streets i traversed, i saw exactly one yard sign for rahm and exactly one apartment window sign for chuy.

with the election about 1 month away, there seems to be a fair amount of voter apathy from my cursory neighborhood walks. 4 years ago i remember seeing a lot more yard/window signs and hearing much, MUCH more about the mayoral race in the news media.

does anyone else sense a relative lack of interest this time around? how do you think voter apathy might affect the race? does it help or hurt rahm?

[the urban politician]

^ I think it helps Rahm. Anybody who challenges Rahm will want a huge turn out of disgruntled voters, I think..

[Steely Dan]

new tribune poll:

Emanuel: 42%
Garcia: 18%
Fioretti: 10%
Wilson: 7%
Walls: 2%

Undecided: 21%



depending on how those undecideds break, rahm could be facing a run-off.

[SamInTheLoop]

^^^, ^^

I definitely also get the sense that there is no groundswell of interest in this election, above and beyond the usual pretty high level of general voter apathy in Chicago. And, I also agree that this does benefit Rahm.

Further, if I were Rahm, I'd be quite heartened by this latest poll. That's also a large group of undecided, and I'd be surprised if less than 40% of the actual undecided out there (and that's conservative, I could probably use 50% there) in the last few weeks don't break his way too in the end.

Finally, have you guys seen the incredible campaign hauls he's pulled in during recent weeks? It's positively ridiculous how much more in the way of resources he has than the rest of the field combined. Impressive, but also yet another in the long, sickening line of evidenciary indictments against American campaign finance.

And, finally (this time it's the real thing), I'm really hoping to catch at least a couple of the televised debates in the next 2 weeks, and, perhaps somewhat sadly, I'm afraid to say some of my motivation is to watch Willie Wilson for potential explosive comedic content. This guy is apt to say virtually anything. Obviously the political rumor mill regarding him has probably been going overtime for quite a while, but I'm curious: do any Chicago political watchers here think there's actually a decent chance he's some sort of 'plant' in the race?? I've tried to work out the likely logic of such, but when you really think about it, it's not that obvious and at least to me seems farily muddled, I would say, at best....

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

new tribune poll:

Emanuel: 42%
Garcia: 18%
Fioretti: 10%
Wilson: 7%
Walls: 2%

Undecided: 21%



depending on how those undecideds break, rahm could be facing a run-off.

A more recent poll reinforces what this poll shows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicag...election,_2015

Rahm Emanuel 41.7%
Jesus Garcia 16.6%
Willie Wilson 9.7%
Bob Fioretti 6.7%
William Walls 1.7%
Undecided 23.5%

I think many of you are underestimating the chances of a runoff. I believe a strong majority of those undecideds are anti-Rahm voters who are undecided about which of the other candidates to vote for. I live near Midway and people out here don't really like Rahm Emanuel at all, even machine people who were rock solid behind Daley 8+ years ago don't have the same loyalty to Rahm, not even close. Most rank and file neighborhood people are talking about their Aldermanic races (like where I am in the 23rd) and not the Mayor's race but there is still a lot of anybody but Rahm sentiment out there.

Sure some of the undecideds will go Rahm's way and he will end up with 45%+ of the vote but he will fall short of the 55% he got last time which doesn't give him much margin for error to get 50%+1. The mere fact that Rahm is in danger of a runoff in spite of the challengers having trouble with raising money, ground game and even message says something. If there was a well funded challenger with a strong message a run-off would be a shoe in. As it stands I give the chances of a runoff as being 50/50 and if there is a runoff Rahm has a 50/50 chance of winning that. If Rahm avoids a runoff it will be by a squeaker of barely 50%+1, I actually wonder if there may even be some kind of a recount to see if there will be a runoff, I think it will be that close. Personally I think a runoff would be exciting for the city, at the very least keep the discussion going about the future of the city, even if the challenger fails and Rahm wins in the end so be it.

[sentinel]

Maybe I'm stupid or ignorant, but I frankly don't see what Garcia or Fioretti have to offer as Mayor. At. All. Fioretti is an abject POS panderer, in my book, with no redeeming qualities - he just appears to be an extremely bitter, apathetic ole queen who represents the decadent status quo worse than someone like Rahm. And I really don't know much about "Chuy", other than his childish nickname, regardless of provenance. Wilson and Walls just seem to be wasting everyone's time.

[Baronvonellis]

I got shook down for my vote by 2 goons from Alderman O'conner in Lincoln Square. They spotted me in front of my apartment building and somehow knew my name even though there are 3 units. Then I got a call from someone in his office the next day asking me to vote for him. Machine politics at it's worst, and his shakedown sure didn't motivate me to vote for him. Yuck!!

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Baronvonellis

I got shook down for my vote by 2 goons from Alderman O'conner in Lincoln Square. They spotted me in front of my apartment building and somehow knew my name even though there are 3 units. Then I got a call from someone in his office the next day asking me to vote for him. Machine politics at it's worst, and his shakedown sure didn't motivate me to vote for him. Yuck!!

what exactly did they say to you? how were you "shook down"? did they make any direct or indirect threats to you?

[SamInTheLoop]

^ ^^ I'm very curious as well precisely what transpired here. And of course, what was actually verbally stated to B-ville could very well only be part of what was communicated, or intended to be communicated.

Aside from that is the basic question of how such a real and/or perceived threat - if there was one in any case - would actually be effective, ie followed-up on/enforced? My working assumption is that - and if this is a naive assumption because this is Chicago I want to know in detail how so - it's highly unlikely that in practice politicians/the machinel are accessing actual voting records (the choices made). I think that most people - despite Chicago being Chicago - would share my assumption and that any real and/or perceived threat would have very little to no impact on voting choices. If otherwise - if there was even a small percentage of Chicago's electorate that felt it's realistically possible to be politically threatened into voting a certain way - this would be an enormous problem with our democracy and it's someting that the Justice Department and FBI would need and want to be all over.....

[Baronvonellis]

I was standing in front of my building and 2 large guys approached me, asking me I was "my full name", and if I was going to be voting for the Alderman. I told them no, and they asked me why not. Then I got a call from someone the next day on my cell phone, and they wanted to know again who I was voting for and then they gave all the canned statements about the alderman wanted to know how strongly I agreed or disagreed. Eventually, I got sick of it and hung up.
They didn't threat me directly, but I more just disturbed that they knew my full name, and cell phone number. And what they are going to do with that info in the future if he does win. Are they going to ignore service requests to my address because I didn't vote for him, ect. The whole idea just seems really sleazy. Now I'm wondering if he would have access to the voter records to see who voted for who. Its all computerized now so it would be simple to download that list.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

what exactly did they say to you? how were you "shook down"? did they make any direct or indirect threats to you?

"That's an awful nice three flat ya got there, it'd be a shame if anything were to happen to it..."

Originally Posted by sentinel

Maybe I'm stupid or ignorant, but I frankly don't see what Garcia or Fioretti have to offer as Mayor. At. All. Fioretti is an abject POS panderer, in my book, with no redeeming qualities - he just appears to be an extremely bitter, apathetic ole queen who represents the decadent status quo worse than someone like Rahm. And I really don't know much about "Chuy", other than his childish nickname, regardless of provenance. Wilson and Walls just seem to be wasting everyone's time.

They don't have anything to offer except mopping up the "anyone but Rahm" vote for their own long term political gain. Seriously, everyone knows Rahm is going to win. Every candidate who is running has nothing to lose by pissing Rahm off and is going for the "I ran for mayor and got 20% of the vote" resume builder. I will be completely shocked if this election goes to a runoff. Rahm is probably just about to start dumping his cash on that remaining undecided voter category and they will all comply with his propaganda. Going to call it at 55% Rahm, 21% Chuy, 15% Fioretti, 9% other.

[Baronvonellis]

Yea, I'm definitely not voting for him now. He's been in office 30 years, I think it's long enough plus he only works part time as an alderman. I'd rather have an alderman that works full time for the ward. His law firm is his full time job, and he has publicly admitted that he thinks it's a good idea to hire family member to government jobs on principle. Time for him to go!

[ardecila]

What an old-school Irish jagbag.

Ugh, aldermen. The only ones I like are Pawar and maybe Waguespack. They seem to understand certain principles of decent urban planning. Arena talks a good talk about TOD, bike lanes, streetscaping, etc but his ward is not high-growth and his constituents are some of the most entitled in the city.

And (don't shoot the messenger here) Reilly is one of the better aldermen. He is about as pro-development as he can realistically be and still get elected. Most of what he does is stagecraft to manage public outrage - he has to get concessions from developers to keep voters from getting too upset. I imagine some developers will compensate and ask for more than they need, so they can still be profitable after Reilly comes through with the axe.

[Ch.G, Ch.G]

Originally Posted by ardecila

What an old-school Irish jagbag.

Ugh, aldermen. The only ones I like are Pawar and maybe Waguespack. They seem to understand certain principles of decent urban planning. Arena talks a good talk about TOD, bike lanes, streetscaping, etc but his ward is not high-growth and his constituents are some of the most entitled in the city.

And (don't shoot the messenger here) Reilly is one of the better aldermen. He is about as pro-development as he can realistically be and still get elected. Most of what he does is stagecraft to manage public outrage - he has to get concessions from developers to keep voters from getting too upset. I imagine some developers will compensate and ask for more than they need, so they can still be profitable after Reilly comes through with the axe.

Someone here should run for alderman.

[SamInTheLoop]

^^^^ et al this stuff re O'Conner - and I'm sure all the other old school douchebagermen is really disturbing, particularly when it comes to the possibility of actually accessing voting records. At the mere hint of those kind of hijinks, serious investigations should ensue.


Ardecila - I agree with your point re: O'Reilly. When you look at the big picture, it could be (well, we having dozens of current real life examples) considerably worse if you're pro-development in general (as usual accepting the ridiculous 'planning' and zoning entitlement system (aldermanic prerogative) in this city as the given farcical evil it is. He plays a game with the NIMBYs and developers, and they play their roles as well.

[SamInTheLoop]

So anybody else here warming up to Willie Wilson after seeing his first couple tv commercials?

W. T. F.


I rewound each of them and laughed, and laughed and laughed...........I'm not exaggerating, this guy should be poised to get some national press, comic relief variety.....

[SamInTheLoop]

So, who wants to bet against the Feb. Plan Commission meeting having a very light agenda?

And, depending on how many/which wards go to aldermanic run-off, the next few months may be on the lighter side as well........although as I type this, does anyone know if O'Reilly has any remotely credible 42nd competition? I haven't been following the races out in da wards too much at all. Same topic, anyone know if Dowell has any meaningful competition in the new 3rd??


Good timing to get back in the business of pushing major projects through entitlement starting early this summer, as the 12 to 18 months beginning then will be critical to getting projects approved in reasonable time for construction start while the development 'gettin' is still good this cycle......

[bnk]

Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop

So anybody else here warming up to Willie Wilson after seeing his first couple tv commercials?

W. T. F.


I rewound each of them and laughed, and laughed and laughed...........I'm not exaggerating, this guy should be poised to get some national press, comic relief variety.....

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Seems like a one issue candidate for one part of Chicago.

He can't be a real candidate. He can't speak and would have just one constituency that is declining in the hoods.

I could not imagine any other Chicagoan voting for him. Even if he got the block black vote only less than 60-70% of them could vote for him.


Obama's endorsement of Rahm took away the top 20% and he is a shoe in even if it comes to a second round. He's got way too much clout, muscle and money not to.