The Metro Vancouver Real Estate Thread

[JamesOwnz]

Not sure if this is the thread for this but i'll ask.

So with all the doom and gloom you'll hear about certain people about how the housing market is due for a crash well what is to be expected here? What kind of drop would we really see?

Is say a 2 million home on capitol hill in Burnaby going to sell for 1.3?

A 450k studio in yaletown for 300k? lol you could dream

[Pinion]

No one knows.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by JamesOwnz

Not sure if this is the thread for this but i'll ask.

So with all the doom and gloom you'll hear about certain people about how the housing market is due for a crash well what is to be expected here? What kind of drop would we really see?

Is say a 2 million home on capitol hill in Burnaby going to sell for 1.3?

A 450k studio in yaletown for 300k? lol you could dream

I would not expect a huge price drop. If anything there will be a decline in the % price increase. Australia instituted much more stringent restrictions on foreign buyers and that did not result in price drops.

[MIPS]

Oh man, this is one for the books.

Vancouver real estate agents criticized for sympathy card

A 73-year-old man whose wife died less than three weeks earlier was crushed to get a pitch for his business attached to a sympathy card from two Metro Vancouver real estate agents, his outraged daughter says.
The card her father received read: “May loving memories be your constant comfort and fill your heart with peace.”

A hand-written note added: “Dear Mr. Smith. So sorry to hear of your wife’s passing. Please let us know if we can help in any way with your Real Estate needs when the time is right.”
“On what planet does someone think this is ethical or even remotely acceptable?” Bowie said.

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/lo...card-1.2318822

[trofirhen]

I found these two videos on Vancouver real estate. They may be accurate, or maybe not. If posted before, excuse me. Any feedback on the topic most welcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beh16OyKT8A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beh16OyKT8A

[Sheba]

Owners of empty Vancouver homes will have to admit it, or risk a snitch

Vancouver will have a levy on empty homes in time for the 2017 tax season, Mayor Gregor Robertson told reporters this morning.

The annual tax will apply to anyone who self-declares an empty home on their tax bill and will likely be 0.5 to two per cent of the home’s assessed value, say city staff, whose report on the topic is slated for city council next week.

The empty homes tax — which would be a first in Canada — comes in response to a near-zero rental vacancy rate in the city and on the heels of a city-commissioned study that claims to have found 10,800 homes sitting empty year-round.

“This empty homes tax is first and foremost about bringing rental homes back onto the market,” Robertson said.

Staff plan to rely on a snitch-and-audit system to make sure homeowners comply and there will be a penalty for those who don’t, said Kathleen Llewellyn-Thomas, the city’s general manager of community services.

Llewellyn-Thomas explained how the self-declaration process would work. The city would require homeowners to declare their “principal residence” using a definition for that that is similar to the one in the B.C. homeowner’s grant.

Staff would then perform random and snitch-driven audits to sniff out homeowners who had not been truthful. Auditors would request things like drivers’ licences, health cards and documents from the Canada Revenue Agency for proof of principal residency — all are forms of proof that the city can now legally demand given recent changes to the Vancouver Charter, Llewellyn-Thomas said.

As long as the homeowner, a tenant, or a family member occupies a given home, it will not be subject to the tax.

When asked if she really thought people would self-declare an empty home, Llewellyn-Thomas said: “It’s the same as the income tax process. That’s the basis of our tax system here in Canada and so the audit process and the complaints process will keep people honest.”

When people are found not to have been honest, they will be hit with a penalty. What that will be is, along with a host of other details, yet to be decided.

Among those details is who, precisely, the tax will hit. It’s one of the biggest questions residents who find themselves away from their homes for stretches of time will have about the tax, and it’s one that staff don’t have the answer to. Robertson was quick to say very few Vancouver residents will be subject to the tax, but staff plan to consult residents on how far reaching it should be.

“We understand that there are lots of different reasons why people have left their homes empty and we want to canvass those (and) understand them,” Llewellyn-Thomas said.

“We will be testing various scenarios and asking the public to bring us scenarios as well.”

Robertson cautioned that the tax “is not a silver bullet” and will not be enough to lift the vacancy rate on its own. Instead, he called it “an important tool to start the shift.”

[Sheba]

Ottawa making housing fix a top priority, minister says

The minister responsible for drawing up a national housing strategy says he and other senior cabinet members are having extensive discussions about how Ottawa should act to bring Canada’s housing market under control.

Jean-Yves Duclos said he is “in direct and intense contact over those issues” with Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Revenue Minister Diane Lebouthillier as the government prepares for Monday’s return of Parliament.

The meetings come after a year-long investigation by The Globe and Mail into questionable practices that may have contributed to a growing affordability crisis in the overheated real estate markets of Vancouver and Toronto. The Canada Revenue Agency this week launched a review into the actions of B.C. real estate speculators in light of a Globe report that uncovered possible tax evasion and fraud.

Mr. Duclos did not outline all of the options that are under consideration, other than ideas for ways to build new affordable housing.

...

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has indicated his government is reviewing possible interventions and has been studying policies of other countries – including Australia – where restrictions have been imposed on non-resident investors looking to buy real estate. During the summer, British Columbia imposed a tax on foreign home buyers, and Vancouver announced a vacancy tax this week that will apply to owners of homes that are left empty.

One announcement expected soon will involve the details of a pledge to provide federal financing to build new affordable rental housing.

Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson has proposed to offer $250-million worth of city-owned property for affordable housing if Ottawa helps pay for the construction.

That type of proposal is receiving a positive response from Ottawa. Mr. Duclos said Metro Vancouver leaders are “very willing and able” to provide property and partial financing for affordable housing.

“Municipal land has great potential,” said Mr. Duclos, who met on Thursday with the Federation of Canadian Municipalities board of directors to discuss the national housing strategy. Developing the plan is the responsibility of Mr. Duclos, a former economist at at l’Université Laval.

[SpongeG]

Vancouver's housing-bubble risk unmatched on the planet, says Swiss bank

When it comes to overpriced real estate, Vancouver's "bubble risk" is unmatched on the planet, according to a report by
Swiss bank UBS.

The rise in Vancouver's average housing prices compared with the growth in average wages, rents and other economic factors make it the most likely to experience a sudden downward correction compared with 17 other large cities around the globe, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index released this week.

The report also warned that investors are less likely to see growth in property value in high "bubble risk" cities.

Jon Woloshin, strategist at UBS Wealth Management Americas, said the report doesn't mean Vancouver is likely to experience a home price correction like the U.S. housing crisis that contributed to the 2008-09 recession. Rather, it's meant as a cautionary signal for potential real estate investors.

"Based on the different criteria that were factored into all these major markets, as we sit here today, Vancouver on a
risk-reward basis scored the lowest, which is why it's at the top," he explained.

Is Vancouver's real estate market really in free fall?
Rising Vancouver prices prompt real estate refugees to relocate to St. John's
Plunging foreign investment in Vancouver real estate 'the impact we wanted': B.C. premier
He added that the province's move to control the city's overheated housing market by imposing a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers of homes in Metro Vancouver as of Aug. 2 could reduce its bubble risk rating.

The UBS report was based on Vancouver data up to last spring, before the foreign buyers' tax was implemented.

"If the government cracks down and really goes after it, yeah, I think it will have an impact," Woloshin said in a telephone interview from New York. "If a lot of smart lawyers get involved, maybe it becomes less of an issue."

Class-action lawsuit filed against B.C.'s foreign buyer property tax

Last week, the British Columbia government credited its new tax in reporting that housing deals in Vancouver involving foreign buyers dropped to 60 between Aug. 2 and Aug. 31 after hitting 1,974 between June 10 and Aug. 1.

In early September, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said home sales fell 26 per cent in August compared with the same month last year. It reported that the composite benchmark price for all residential properties jumped 31 per cent to $933,100.

In its report, the bank places Vancouver ahead of London thanks to prices that it says have risen by 25 per cent since the end of 2014. Last year, in its first such report, UBS rated Vancouver fourth behind London, Hong Kong and Sydney, in that order.

full story:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/britis...bank-1.3781527

[Sheba]

Vancouver aims to curb short-term house rentals in pricey market

Vancouver unveiled further steps on Wednesday aimed at easing a housing affordability and availability crisis, two days after a report warned that the West Coast Canadian city was the world's most at risk for a housing bubble.

Mayor Gregor Robertson said Vancouver plans to restrict short-term rentals, such as Airbnb, to primary homes - a move aimed at increasing the availability of long-term rentals for residents.

Vancouver has already announced plans to tax vacant houses by the year-end, increasing costs for foreign owners who have helped make it Canada's most expensive property market.

"Housing is first and foremost about homes and not about operating businesses particularly at a time like this when affordability and rentals and housing is at a real crisis point," Robertson told reporters.

He estimated that the move could add about 1,000 homes to the long-term rental market. The city is proposing a new license to allow short-term rentals in principal homes.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Sheba

Vancouver aims to curb short-term house rentals in pricey market

Like the mayor's vacancy tax, it will only work with vigorous enforcement.

[jlousa]

To show that I'm not anti Vision as much as I am anti bad policy. I support Vision in this proposed Airbnb policy. Enforcement is going to be tough, but think the framework is sound. Will be interesting if all the stratas which have current bans on airbnbs will now adjust to allow them under the city imposed conditions.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jlousa

To show that I'm not anti Vision as much as I am anti bad policy. I support Vision in this proposed Airbnb policy. Enforcement is going to be tough, but think the framework is sound. Will be interesting if all the stratas which have current bans on airbnbs will now adjust to allow them under the city imposed conditions.

The last thing the better stratas that are largely owner occupied will want is a steady stream of one night rentals going through their doors.

[jlousa]

The last thing most owner-occupied condo owners would want is to rent out their own home to 14 different people while they vacation for 2 wks... Most wont want to rent them out period but those that do would probably only seek a single renter while they are away.

[sacrifice333]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The last thing the better stratas that are largely owner occupied will want is a steady stream of one night rentals going through their doors.

I know many stratas currently have 30-night minimum rentals, I wonder if they could allow short-term rentals such as the city is proposing, but with a minimum night requirement such as 3-nights.

A 3-night minimum (the longer the better) helps minimize the risk(s) of one-night party-intended rentals and generally ensures a much higher quality tenant.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jlousa

The last thing most owner-occupied condo owners would want is to rent out their own home to 14 different people while they vacation for 2 wks... Most wont want to rent them out period but those that do would probably only seek a single renter while they are away.

True, but the problem is that's potentially a lot of "stranger" traffic going through a large building. I know a few that have banned AirBnB type rentals already. Once the door is open to it, you would get investors buying into a building who just want to do short term rentals for a quick buck and the livability takes a nose dive.

[cornholio]

September Sales
9.5% bellow August numbers
9.6% bellow 10 year averages
32.6% bellow 2015 numbers

New federal rules coming into play to start October and the general public catching on means October wont be any better. If a long awaited Asian financial crisis were to hit right now the Vancouver market would crash pretty badly and very fast fast imo

[whatnext]

Obviously 2015 was an outlier year.

Lets see where prices head vis a vis 2014. Many areas I monitor still have nearly all listings at unrealistic bubble prices.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Obviously 2015 was an outlier year.

Lets see where prices head vis a vis 2014. Many areas I monitor still have nearly all listings at unrealistic bubble prices.

Now that the Chinese foreigners are no longer a huge factor (or never was), who are you blaming for this? Chinese immigrants or Canadians of Chinese origins?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Vin

Now that the Chinese foreigners are no longer a huge factor (or never was), who are you blaming for this? Chinese immigrants or Canadians of Chinese origins?

Never was? Are you forgetting the stats that forced the province to act? The ones that showed 20% of Richmond home sales were to foreign buyers. Not Chinese buyers, but to non-residents of Canada. You can drop the "never was" schtick.

As to prices, its pretty common to see a lag from sales drop to price drop. Also keep in mind there is no ban on foreign buyers. They may just be waiting to see where the market goes before purchasing property regardless of the 15% tax, as are locals.

[Stingray2004]

Just on my Twitter feed from a realtor:

"Wow a house in Richmond just sold for $800,000. Never thought I'd see the day."