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Originally Posted by 240glt
It'll be Calgary and the rural areas that elect the next government, so it'll be back to that again too
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Calgary has always been the deciding factor in provincial elections. Edmonton will vote left of center and form the official opposition (until the NDP took power in the next election). Rural alberta (including the lake of fire ridings in SE Alberta) will vote conservative either PC or WRP. Calgary gets to be king maker in a divided right world.
What has not ever happened is an election where Edmonton and Calgary vote for the same party and rural AB votes for the official opposition. The closest we ever got was the Redford election.
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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker
So pessimistic. I think the NDP have even odds. Perhaps better against a united right. even better against a united right that can't run afoul of the nonparty political actor scene on the right, which is just off the deep end right now.
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The future of the AB NDP party in power depends heavily on successful construction of three major pipeline projects: (1) Trans Mountain, (2) Enbridge Line 3, (3) Energy East. If less than 2 pipelines are under construction by the 2019 election and the NDP pushes ahead with the Carbon Tax, they are toast. However if all three projects are under construction they will easily win the election.
The dark clouds on the horizon for the NDP include the coming court action on Trans Mountain and potential rejection of Energy East by the Trudeau Liberals. The difficult choice for the NDP will be if pipeline construction is stalled and they proceed with Climate Change action plan, it will be a turkey shoot for the united right.
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Originally Posted by 240glt
It'll depend if the United right can muzzle their crazies and stay on point.
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I would say the same thing about the AB NDP. Further, Notley has to distance herself from both the provincial left and the federal leap manifesto crowds. What I could see happening is a permanent divide between the AB NDP and the Federal NDP parties. The federal wing wants to go far left because they have learned that a popular left of center federal NDP party will ensure a conservative majority.
Notley (the person) is a lot more pragmatic than the inner circle of the NDP lets on. I worry about the like of Ceci, Hoffman, Eggen, McCuaig-Boyd, and several of members of the back bench (Connelly, Drever, Jansen, Kazim come to mind). If we had more people like Notley and Mason; I think the province would be better off.
One thing Notley has not done is cast off the more radical members of the caucus in favour of more moderate members from the general public. The federal liberals have started down this path with the removal of both Dion and MacCallum. For instance, the Energy minister needs to go back to being a teacher (or at least in a role more suited to her talents) and the party needs to hire someone with better grasp of the industry to help out Notley.
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Originally Posted by Mikemike
Also, I wonder whether the death of the PC party might shift some voters to the NDP- and whether more liberal votes night shift to the NDP in an attempt to avoid a WRP government.
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Outside of Edmonton, I doubt there are many frmr PC voters that would shift to the NDP under a United Right. The bigger problem for the AB NDP voters will be rural and Calgary voters that voted NDP expecting a minority government, but won't make the same mistake again.