Fredericton-Saint John Combined Airport

[Nashe]

It's well written, but I don't see a lot of numbers. What is the capital cost and who would cover it? Government, I assume? Or VCs? How long until break-even?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Saint John’s a lot closer to the seafood industry than Moncton and Fredericton is, is it not?

I'm only responding to this particular statement.

You do realize that the vast majority of air freight seafood exports to China are crustaceans (lobster and snow crab), right?

These are huge industries in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (especially snow crab on la Peninsule).

Moncton is the largest city in close proximity to the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northumberland Strait.

It is the natural trans shipment point for shellfish exports by air freight from the gulf fisheries region (NB, PEI and, to a lesser degree northern NS).

There is a reason why DFO operates the Gulf Fisheries Centre out of Moncton. The Gulf Fisheries Centre is a major component of the new ASEC, currently under construction in Moncton.

NB is more than just the Bay of Fundy, and, even there, Alma is closer and more intimately associated with Moncton than Saint John.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I'm only responding to this particular statement.

You do realize that the vast majority of air freight seafood exports to China are crustaceans (lobster and snow crab), right?

These are huge industries in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (especially snow crab on la Peninsule).

Moncton is the largest city in close proximity to the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northumberland Strait.

It is the natural trans shipment point for shellfish exports by air freight from the gulf fisheries region (NB, PEI and, to a lesser degree northern NS).

There is a reason why DFO operates the Gulf Fisheries Centre out of Moncton. The Gulf Fisheries Centre is a major component of the new ASEC, currently under construction in Moncton.

NB is more than just the Bay of Fundy, and, even there, Alma is closer and more intimately associated with Moncton than Saint John.

Indeed, and a lot of the proposed logistic centers are already well established and rapidly growing in Moncton and Halifax. By the time this "hypothetical" airport would break ground both Moncton/Halifax will have likely have doubled it's industrial/logistics footprint. This idea would have been a great 35+ years ago before Moncton/Halifax exploded in growth. IMO Saint John should be focused on developing their port instead of a new airport. Cheaper flights will come as their FUA grows.

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by Nashe

It's well written, but I don't see a lot of numbers. What is the capital cost and who would cover it? Government, I assume? Or VCs? How long until break-even?

Thanks. I didn't go through all the numbers from the original as I'd have to do new research and factor inflation, etc. This was done back in the 90s, so things have changed.

However, I can say that at the time, this was a little over a $1.2 billion of which the split was 40% Canadian Military, 20% Federal Infrastructure, 20% Province of New Brunswick, and 20% Private Enterprise. For the later, the Irvings were actually one of the largest suggested private investors given the return they'd get from the rail lines, jet fuel, and related JDI companies like trucking, shipping, etc.

The model at the time showed within the first 5 years, annual tax impact would have been $150M a year from job creation, property taxes, business taxes, and more. So basically it would have been fully paid back within 8 years of full operation. Again, times have changed and who knows but at the time the financial models looked good.

[J81]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Why would they fight it tooth and nail? This combined airport would not shutdown YSJ, it would allow YSJ to shift focus to cargo and private aviation. Saint John’s Port could end up surpassing Halifax’s Port in the next 10 years in terms of cargo traffic, there’s absolutely a case to be made for YSJ to remain relevant. Saint John’s a lot closer to the seafood industry than Moncton and Fredericton is, is it not? It’s not just about synergy between rail and sea, it’s about comparative advantage, and Saint John has a comparative advantage to both Moncton and Fredericton when it comes to the seafood industry. Moreover, Fredericton has a comparative advantage to both Saint John and Moncton being located further east on the trans Canada highway. So while you’re right there’s not a whole lot of synergy between air, rail, and sea, there is synergy between air and highways. NB has a comparable population to Nova Scotia, and is closer to both Quebec and Ontario, and the entire Northeastern United States.

I don’t think it’s entirely pie in the sky, or too late, it’s a potential multi billion dollar that would be transformational for both cities. Too often in NB, we don’t see the forest through the trees! Getting hung up on the multi millions invested in YSJ and more-so YFC as a reason to not support a potential multi billion dollar idea is really short sighted, and missing out on the bigger picture.

There’s very few solutions to increase flights and decrease cost of routes servicing YSJ and YFC on consumers, other than government subsidies, and this idea to invest in a combined airport for Fredericton and Saint John just happens to be one of them! It’s a logical idea that should have happened decades ago, but that not happening decades ago is not a valid reason to oppose it into the future.

AFAIK, the last report that studies airport sharing in NB only looked at and shot down the combined airport for all three cities around Sussex that people love to bring up, but doesn’t actually make that much sense when you explore it deeper, as it’s just slightly too far from all three major cities. However, the midway point between Saint John and Fredericton is absolutely not too far for it to be viable. The KV crowd might not like it, but it would also be the impetus for bridges across the Kingston Peninsula, which would be good for connecting KV with Fredericton… something also which should have happened decades ago.

At the very least, I think this proposal should attract some attention and deserve some actual study from both the provincial and federal governments.

Youre a dreamer and thats ok. But it means you arent thinking logically. You need to let this go because nothing youre saying makes any sense. You very clearly do not understand demographics, economics, transportation and trade, shipping and the synergies between them and industry. mmatt could not have explained it any better. YSJ will never be a cargo airport and he explained why. There will never be a combined YSJ/YFC airport for the very simple fact that it will not change a damn thing. We are a province of 845000. Spending a billion or two for a new airport when we already have 3 is a complete waste of money and it will never ever make that money back. Can we please end this ridiculous conversation and delete this thread completely? Its pointless.

[Sunnybrae]

Originally Posted by J81

Youre a dreamer and thats ok. But it means you arent thinking logically. You need to let this go because nothing youre saying makes any sense. You very clearly do not understand demographics, economics, transportation and trade, shipping and the synergies between them and industry. mmatt could not have explained it any better. YSJ will never be a cargo airport and he explained why. There will never be a combined YSJ/YFC airport for the very simple fact that it will not change a damn thing. We are a province of 845000. Spending a billion or two for a new airport when we already have 3 is a complete waste of money and it will never ever make that money back. Can we please end this ridiculous conversation and delete this thread completely? Its pointless.

Well, after reading the very first post in this thread, I guess it better be deleted or J81 will get even more angry!

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by J81

Youre a dreamer and thats ok. But it means you arent thinking logically. You need to let this go because nothing youre saying makes any sense. You very clearly do not understand demographics, economics, transportation and trade, shipping and the synergies between them and industry. mmatt could not have explained it any better. YSJ will never be a cargo airport and he explained why. There will never be a combined YSJ/YFC airport for the very simple fact that it will not change a damn thing. We are a province of 845000. Spending a billion or two for a new airport when we already have 3 is a complete waste of money and it will never ever make that money back. Can we please end this ridiculous conversation and delete this thread completely? Its pointless.

That’s your opinion… imo, the plan is highly logical. As for knowing nothing about demographics, economics, transportation, and trade, I have an educational background that touches on all these matters.

As for there never being a combined Fredericton/Saint John airport, and how it wouldn’t change anything… that’s just silly. It would fundamentally change the name of the game for both cities. Even Moncton would be better off for it, as it would increase competition. But thanks for the motivation to post more on this subject than before

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by Sunnybrae

Well, after reading the very first post in this thread, I guess it better be deleted or J81 will get even more angry!

Agreed.

I don't know where all these "NEW" folks are from on the threads but the decorum lately is elementary school level, at best. People can have differing opinions but calling people names...go to another thread please or find a different interest.

As someone who has been active on here for at least 10 years, I must say the back and forth on here has gotten to a point where it is no longer adding any insight or value. Just people wanting to argue with each other behind the darkness of a keyboard.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I'm only responding to this particular statement.

You do realize that the vast majority of air freight seafood exports to China are crustaceans (lobster and snow crab), right?

These are huge industries in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (especially snow crab on la Peninsule).

Moncton is the largest city in close proximity to the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northumberland Strait.

It is the natural trans shipment point for shellfish exports by air freight from the gulf fisheries region (NB, PEI and, to a lesser degree northern NS).

There is a reason why DFO operates the Gulf Fisheries Centre out of Moncton. The Gulf Fisheries Centre is a major component of the new ASEC, currently under construction in Moncton.

NB is more than just the Bay of Fundy, and, even there, Alma is closer and more intimately associated with Moncton than Saint John.

And there’s all kinds of seafood industries located on the Bay of Fundy, too. There’s all kinds of important industries located near Saint John and Fredericton, and a major airport located between the two or them would just increase the economic opportunities for both regions. There's lots of lobsters in the Bay of Fundy too, as well as Tuna, and many other valuable fish.

Fredericton is located on the Trans Canada Highway and the closest major centre in NB to the I-95. Saint John is the biggest seaport in the province, and close to all kinds of important seafood industries… Cooke, Bumblebee, Brunswick just to name a few. Moreover, the new airport would make it more viable to get NB fresh seafood from the Bay of Fundy to buyers in Asia…our scallops, lobster, and salmon a lone are enough to make a combined airport project worth looking into.

Between New York and Moncton, YFC and YSJ are perhaps the weakest links in the airports up the east coast. There’s no real logical reason to oppose a project like, look at the type of projects and subsidies the government of NB and federal government already waste money on… yet, here you are, making it about Moncton's seafood exports.

There’s absolutely a case to at least further study this proposal, and we don’t need a time machine to justify it like you basically said on the first page. It’s really sad you just can’t not make everything about Moncton somehow, when in reality, this type of investment would ultimately be good for the airport in Moncton too, and the entire NB economy for that matter.

It’s a great idea with long term economic potential which you basically said in your first reply in this thread… but your posts just got progressive more pessimistic towards the idea as the thread was updated. It’s possible to take the Moncton hat from time to time, btw. How often do you see me and other SJ and Fredericton posters come in and nitpick long term discussions in Moncton specific threads? Yet here you are in a thread about improving Saint John's crappy airport situation and making it all about Moncton's seafood exports through YQM.

We all understand making a major combined airport proposal, reality is difficult political and economic challenge, but it really has very little to do with Moncton. If NB’s population keeps growing, and the province ever got serious about tax reform, or dialing back some other subsidies, it would be more than possible to fund a combined airport project Saint John and Fredericton, especially considering how many would be coming from private public partnerships, and possibly the Canadian armed forces.

As for the futures of YSJ and YFC, it’s kind of insignificant compared to the economic potential that would be afforded by investing in new, combined airport between Fredericton and Saint John. The only part Moncton comes in to play, is terms of competition between two major airports. Or do you think everything in New Brunswick must be as close to monopolized as possible?

Saint John gets the short end of the stick, combing airports with Fredericton would basically eliminate that, resulting in one big airport that could actually compete with YQM or even YHZ one day. Obviously, Moncton would get further investment in YQM too. The goal should be 1.5 million passengers going through both airports. That's at least a worthy goal compared to Halifax, and based on current numbers out of YQM. Fredericton will have a hard time cracking 1 million at YFC, and it's nearly impossible to think about YSJ cracking 1 million passengers with how few airlines service the YSJ airport, sharing an airport is such a simple solution that solves a tourism and transportation challenge for both cities. I've yet to hear a single argument against the idea that goes beyond, "it would cost too much", "there's no political will", or "there's no need". As if there's not already way worse things we waste billions of tax payer dollars on than a proper airport for Saint John and Fredericton.

I've, also yet to hear a single cogent argument as for why YSJ or YFC cannot work as cargo focussed airports with some capacity for private aviation. Surely, there's more than enough people in the Saint John and Fredericton CMA's to service warehouses, intermodal logistics facilities, etc. Mmmatt claims to be in the industry insider, and I have no reason to doubt his claim, but I don't think that makes him suddenly an expert on goverment spending, on why big companies, or how a nation's military decides to make major investments. Gagetown has always been the biggest reason against an airport midway between SJ and Freddy, but if the armed forces can be brought in the fold as a major partner and investor in the airport and airport related industries, it would really help make the project a priority. It's an idea with solid logic foundation, yet, the arguments against the proposal in this thread so far have been pretty damn weak.

[J81]

Originally Posted by Sunnybrae

Well, after reading the very first post in this thread, I guess it better be deleted or J81 will get even more angry!

Who said i was angry? Ive been too busy laughing at the commentary in this thread to be angry!

[J81]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

That’s your opinion… imo, the plan is highly logical. As for knowing nothing about demographics, economics, transportation, and trade, I have an educational background that touches on all these matters.

As for there never being a combined Fredericton/Saint John airport, and how it wouldn’t change anything… that’s just silly. It would fundamentally change the name of the game for both cities. Even Moncton would be better off for it, as it would increase competition. But thanks for the motivation to post more on this subject than before

Lots of people have an education and do nothing with it. Do you have any real world experience in any of these areas? You certainly seem to just want to argue with people that actually do and point out the flaws in a lot of your thinking.

[J81]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

Agreed.

I don't know where all these "NEW" folks are from on the threads but the decorum lately is elementary school level, at best. People can have differing opinions but calling people names...go to another thread please or find a different interest.

As someone who has been active on here for at least 10 years, I must say the back and forth on here has gotten to a point where it is no longer adding any insight or value. Just people wanting to argue with each other behind the darkness of a keyboard.

Im not “NEW” and i never called anyone any derogatory names. The ones who seem to argue the most are those that get faced with facts from others contrary to their beliefs. From people like myself who work in these industries and who come to these threads to shed some light on the inner workings to help direct the conversation in a plausible direction.

[sailor734]

I think there sometimes is a bit of a disconnect among some here between development projects that fall under the heading "gee, wouldn't it be nice but it's wildly unlikely" and that which is feasible from a financial/practical/possible POV. No harm in the former (it's fun to fantasize) as long as it's not confused with the latter.

I'd say an newly built, x billion dollar international airport to serve a few hundred thousand people in the SJ -Fredericton region definitely falls in the former category.

Having said that governments in the past have spent billions on purely political/ideological grounds so nothing is impossible

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by J81

Im not “NEW” and i never called anyone any derogatory names. The ones who seem to argue the most are those that get faced with facts from others contrary to their beliefs. From people like myself who work in these industries and who come to these threads to shed some light on the inner workings to help direct the conversation in a plausible direction.

The point I was making is that it is very easy for everyone here to claim they are an "EXPERT" behind a dark keyboard. It is great to claim to work in the industry but just because others have ideas or present concepts, there is no need to jump onto bandwagons calling them "stupid" or "dream-like" without disclosing your background or validating why you know better than they do. Others on this thread have shown they can have a healthy debate about ideas but some people on these threads simply like to bully people or pick fights.

Here is a question for you as an industry expert...Would you send an email to a work colleague with the same tone and language as you did further up? Do you think saying to a colleague "You very clearly do not understand demographics, economics, transportation and trade, shipping and the synergies between them and industry" is something you'd do to their face? or "Can we please end this ridiculous conversation and delete this thread completely? Its pointless" is something you'd say in public at an industry event?

If the answer is no, which I hope it is, then we all should be a bit more civil on here. If you don't like someone else's ideas or thoughts, YOU DON'T NEED TO REPLY. It is as easy as that. If you like them, PRAISE THEM. If you have data or insights or constructive feedback with references as an industry expert, share it. But there are people on these boards who need to stop attacking people claiming to be industry experts and saying others are stupid, dreaming, or more. It is unprofessional and takes away from healthy discussion and debate.

The fact is, the educational or professional background of others on this site isn't part of their profile and nobody here is asked to have a third-party validation stamp on their "level of experience or expertise". So assume everyone here is an equal, and treat them as such in your replies.

This goes for everyone, both sides.

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

This goes for everyone, both sides.

Agreed that we should remain civil on this site, it remains a cut above Facebook and others for this reason.

I think J81 was mainly directing his reply towards ESJ but in doing so involved this thread in general and by proximity, Pugsley.

I will say again that the thesis created by Pugsley was very well thought out and designed with a great deal of care and attention. Whether or not the idea is practical/realistic in 2024 is irrelevant I think, it's a thought experiment and clearly it has us thinking which is great. Clearly YSJ and YFC struggle to gain standing in a small market and I think we all agree a combined airport would have made more sense but also that the ship has sailed (aircraft has flown?). I am never one to say something is "impossible" but it would take a miracle in this case.

Some constructive feedback for ESJ - you may benefit from learning to summarize your comments a bit better, currently you tend to write quite extended comments and don't always say a lot. Being clear and concise with your writing will earn you more fans on this site than drawing out things with unnecessary wordiness. Also, bring more facts to the table as opposed to feelings, I think the two are often confused. You wrote at length accusing MR of being biased and "opposing" this idea when in fact he was simply correcting a single statement you made regarding the NB seafood industry which is much more vast than just the Bay of Fundy, I don't think he ever "opposed" the idea and neither do I. To be clear - this is a thought experiment in a web forum, you are carrying on as though we are debating this in the Legislature, relax, you are among like minded people here

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

Agreed that we should remain civil on this site, it remains a cut above Facebook and others for this reason.

I think J81 was mainly directing his reply towards ESJ but in doing so involved this thread in general and by proximity, Pugsley.

I will say again that the thesis created by Pugsley was very well thought out and designed with a great deal of care and attention. Whether or not the idea is practical/realistic in 2024 is irrelevant I think, it's a thought experiment and clearly it has us thinking which is great. Clearly YSJ and YFC struggle to gain standing in a small market and I think we all agree a combined airport would have made more sense but also that the ship has sailed (aircraft has flown?). I am never one to say something is "impossible" but it would take a miracle in this case.

Some constructive feedback for ESJ - you may benefit from learning to summarize your comments a bit better, currently you tend to write quite extended comments and don't always say a lot. Being clear and concise with your writing will earn you more fans on this site than drawing out things with unnecessary wordiness. Also, bring more facts to the table as opposed to feelings, I think the two are often confused. You wrote at length accusing MR of being biased and "opposing" this idea when in fact he was simply correcting a single statement you made regarding the NB seafood industry which is much more vast than just the Bay of Fundy, I don't think he ever "opposed" the idea and neither do I. To be clear - this is a thought experiment in a web forum, you are carrying on as though we are debating this in the Legislature, relax, you are among like minded people here

Brevity is the soul of wit, sometimes I have none of it. I’ll keep it in mind.

I never said the seafood industry was just the Bay of Fundy… they implied I did, even though nothing I said suggested that. MonctonRad has a tendency to make absolutely everything about Moncton, even in threads about Saint John or Fredericton, and it’s just a little much sometimes. Here in this thread, their replies got progressively more negative about the idea from their original reply. Someone clearly doesn’t like the idea of Fredericton and Saint John sharing an airport that’s bigger than YQM.

As for your initial reply, I’m not convinced YSJ or YFC (especially) couldn’t be successfully transitioned to become cargo focussed airports. There might not be much synergy between seaports and airports, but there is between the seafood industry and airports. Moreover, there’s all kinds of potential economic ventures that could make the case for YSJ and YFC funding a niche to be successful as cargo airports. Regarding the Irving’s private hangars, not sure why you claim they’d be opposed to YSJ transitioning to a mainly cargo/private aviation focus, as long as they still had access.

Regardless of the future usages of YFC and YSJ, other than the repurposing of some of their infrastructure to cut down the costs on the new airport… I’m not sure why some are leaning so heavily on the “tax payer cost” argument so much. The government of NB and the government of Canada combined having wasted billions on far less useful endeavours in NB than an investment in a new, major airport. It would be a game changer for both Fredericton and Saint John, and I think the long term payoffs would be far greater than the initial investment cost.

I understand some posters here will be long dead before that payoff is fully realized, but that’s not really a good reason to oppose a good idea, imo, especially if they care about future generations that call these two cities home. Investments in YFC and YSJ don’t come close to outweighing the potential long term benefits of a combined airport model for the two cities.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by J81

Im not “NEW” and i never called anyone any derogatory names. The ones who seem to argue the most are those that get faced with facts from others contrary to their beliefs. From people like myself who work in these industries and who come to these threads to shed some light on the inner workings to help direct the conversation in a plausible direction.

Perhaps you're new to someone expecting you to give a better reason against something than calling them a dreamer. Your HIGHLY emotional response, was baseless, irrational, and not even sourced. You then go on to claim that I had no understanding of demographics, economics, transportation, trade, shipping, or the synergies between them, but instead of actually trying to show evidence that I know nothing about these things, you call the very conversation about the subject of this thread pointless, and childishly complained that it should just be deleted.

you boldly claimed "We are a province of 845000. Spending a billion or two for a new airport when we already have 3 is a complete waste of money and it will never ever make that money back." yet, provided no sources as to why you think this is true, not based on any sort of maths, let alone providing some scholarly resources that might back up your claim... just claim I'm wrong about everything, and that I know nothing, based on you "working in the industry".

There's lots of people who work in cargo roles at airports, that know nothing about macroeconomics, government spending, budgets, etc, so pardon me if I don't take your supposed expertise regarding these subject with a massive grain of salt. We have no idea what kind of role you have in the industry, and I really doubt you're here to "direct the conversation" in a plausible direction I'd say you've tried to do quite the opposite of that actually.

Originally Posted by J81

Lots of people have an education and do nothing with it. Do you have any real world experience in any of these areas? You certainly seem to just want to argue with people that actually do and point out the flaws in a lot of your thinking.

I don't really come on here to engage in a measuring contests or compare CVs. Perhaps you want to take it to LinkedIn, or give us an idea what you do that makes you such an industry expert or insider, because so far you're not sounding like any sort of expert in government spending, massive infrastructure projects, cargo shipping, airport economics, macroeconomics, demographics, logistics, manufacturing, seafood exports, tourism, etc, etc.

So far the only flaws you've pointed out in my thinking are that building a combined would cost a lot of money, that we already have 3 airports, and that such an investment in the airport would never make its money back. I'm not even going to ask if you actually read the proposal, but I would like to ask you why you're so sure such an airport would "never make that money back"? Do you have some sources or do you have a way to prove such hypothesized airport would not be profitable? You never stated how long either, and need I remind you that it's unwise to speak in absolutes unless you are incredibly sure about something that you know to be a fact?

Would such a hypothesized NB International be profitable before every boomer dies? Maybe not, but would it be profitable before every gen X and gen Alpha dies? I'd wager it would be... the initial investment would be more than paid off by then. I think it's pretty obvious a shared airport model would be preferable for future generations of both Fredericton and Saint John, even if current generations don't like the idea of paying up for it. Perhaps if you actually brought some logic and reason to your replies we could, in fact, take this conversation in a more plausible direction and flesh out what it would take to get such an idea off the ground and up and running. Some of you New Brunswickers just take cynicism and banal realism to new levels.

If you actually wanted to help direct the thread in a more plausible direction, you'd actually offer up some solutions, some suggestions... got any?

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

If you actually wanted to help direct the thread in a more plausible direction, you'd actually offer up some solutions, some suggestions... got any?

All this joe-schmo (me) can offer is "population growth first, then the market will decide".

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Nashe

All this joe-schmo (me) can offer is "population growth first, then the market will decide".

What’s there to wait for when the combined CMA’s that would be directly served by this airport (Fredericton and Saint John) are already considerably more populous than Greater Moncton?

Also, the free market doesn’t exactly decide much when it comes to large scale infrastructure projects like Airports… it’s mostly up to government.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

What’s there to wait for when the combined CMA’s that would be directly served by this airport (Fredericton and Saint John) are already considerably more populous than Greater Moncton?

Also, the free market doesn’t exactly decide much when it comes to large scale infrastructure projects like Airports… it’s mostly up to government.

Not trying to be a jerk but, how's that route 7 twinning coming? That (and the "on again, off again" Route 11 twinning project) tells me a lot about the NB government's interest in big projects. When I say "market", I mean "business case" because I don't see the provincial government having deep enough pockets for this in my lifetime.