I found some population figures for the "Downtown" neighbourhood (that would be the downtown peninsula minus the West End) stretching from 1991 to 2011. This was the peak construction years for the condo boom in downtown Vancouver.
In 1991 the population of downtown Vancouver was only 8880 people, but grew rapidly with the development of the Expo Lands and the industrial lands of Yaletown and Coal Harbour, plus other areas in between. Fast forward 20 years later, Downtown Vancouver grew to a population of 54 690. A whopping 45 000 person increase in an area of only 3.8 square km's.
I bring those numbers up because I think they can be reliably used to gauge the population growth of the Broadway Corridor over the next 25 years, and why I think the CoV's estimate of 50 000 is way under what the reality will be.
I'll explain why I think this...
When the condo boom in Downtown Vancouver started in the early 90's, there was not a lot there to attract people to actually live there. There was no seawall lined with beautiful landscaping and parks, no shopping streets. You had dirty waterfronts, a huge empty former industrial area in the Expo lands, and gritty industrial areas like Yaletown, where prostitutes would work. Yet because downtown Manhattan style living was so in demand, people were willing to move into rough areas. Consequently, you had a small area of 3.8 square km's grow by 45 000 people in just 20 years.
Now fast forward again to 2023.
The amenities you have along the Broadway Corridor are vastly superior to what downtown Vancouver had starting in the 90's. You have a complete downtown peninsula at your doorstep with all the restaurants, shopping, and nightlife you could ask for, along with many km's of beautiful seawall to walk or bike ride on. The Broadway Corridor itself has already established fantastic neighbourhoods like Mt. Pleasant and Kits, that offer shopping and bar/resto along Main Street, West 4th, and South Granville. Most importantly (and this is huge) you have a subway connecting these great neighbourhoods, as well as connecting you to the burgeoning Central Broadway Business District. A subway station has a huge impact on growth patterns. The Expo Line just doesn't connect downtown the way the Broadway Line will connect the Broadway Corridor.
So given the advanced state of the Broadway Corridor vs Downtown Vancouver (circa 1991- 2011), here are my population growth projections for the next 25 years...
The Broadway Corridor planning area is 8.6 square km's, which is more than twice the size of Downtown Vancouver - 3.8 square km's. Using the growth rate of Downtown Vancouver's 3.8 square km's (1991 - 2011), I project that the Broadway Corridor will grow by 90 000 people in the next 25 years. Obviously well above the 50 000 estimate over 30 years the City published. It sounds like a huge number, but it's not unprecedented as I've shown above, and the demand for a "downtown" lifestyle has only grown, as the city has grown.
https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/socia...e-downtown.pdf
https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/broad...ea-profile.pdf