National Economy

[WarrenC12]

I don't want to debate every point, but I will say this:

1. There is plenty of fat to cut in government spending without crippling unemployment. Isn't that most of the CPC argument at this point, assuming they have a policy?

2. Almost every chart you show has things exploding around the COVID time frame, no surprise, and recovering rather quickly. I didn't double check, but it seems like everything is trending in the right direction.

The economic pain is not over, but to suggest we are on the verge of a blowup just seems weird at this point.

[ssiguy]

The reality is that our standard of living has plunged in the last 40 years. Young people today simply don't realize how much of a lower standard of living they have than their parents and grandparents. They think having to go to university for 4 or 5 years and having their spouse do the same so they can get a one bedroom walk-in-closet means they are living the Canadian dream.

It's truly pathetic how many young people's long-term financial goals rely on their parents dropping dead. That of course assumes they picked the right parents because if they didn't they they will be a debt slave for the rest of their lives. We were once a very high income nation and now we are a high income one. We will never even touch Greece's situation but in 40 years we could be near Italy's but with an astronomically higher cost of living due to our ridiculous housing costs.

We are a nation in decline and we must make a radical change in course in our economic policies and a monumental decline in our immigration levels is where we have to start.

[Marshsparrow]

More young people today seem to want to jump into a $1M mcmansion right away in the best neighbourhood with the nicest car, yearly vacation and avocado toast and not do the hard part of waiting, cohabitating, living below their means, etc. I am pretty certain they will turn out fine.

Decreasing immigration will greatly increase our decline... that's a fact.

A strategy that is not dependent on fossil fuels and natural resources would be a great parallel strategy to support and take some of the pressure off boom and bust cycles.

Canada has had a rough few years, but compared to other western economies is a pretty bright light - can't think of one that is doing better!

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

And to elaborate, I expect the millennial generation as a sum to be very wealthy, but with high inequality - via inheriting boomers' assets. Gen Alpha is going to be much better off, since they will come of age once we're in peak productivity.

Millennials = Lost generation
Gen Z = Greatest generation
Alpha = Silent generation

Our future equivalent to baby boomers hasn't been born yet, but they will be incredibly wealthy compared to people today.

Millennials are a massive generation though, and will be a significant portion of the voter base, and are enter their prime years of holding powerful positions. This means that policies are going to shift in millennials' favour, since the world will soon be run by millennials. I expect this to be the case in the 2030s. Millennials will millennials richer, so we're not going to be a total write-off, and yes still end up being richer than boomers as a sum, but again, probably with a lot of inequality.

Yo. Gen X is still here. We may be "fewer" but we're still in the mix.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

More young people today seem to want to jump into a $1M mcmansion right away in the best neighbourhood with the nicest car, yearly vacation and avocado toast and not do the hard part of waiting, cohabitating, living below their means, etc. I am pretty certain they will turn out fine.

Decreasing immigration will greatly increase our decline... that's a fact.

A strategy that is not dependent on fossil fuels and natural resources would be a great parallel strategy to support and take some of the pressure off boom and bust cycles.

Canada has had a rough few years, but compared to other western economies is a pretty bright light - can't think of one that is doing better!

How many "young people" do you know?

"Young people" are already renting, cohabiting, waiting by delaying their lives for a far longer period of time than previous generations. "Young people" are not even particularly young anymore.

Only the most well off "young people" are buying the "$1 million McMansions" (more like $2.5 million in much of this country, since $1 million won't even get you a shack in large parts of this country let alone a McMansion). "Young people" are not buying "1 million McMansions" in Kitsilano, they're stretching to buy condos in Maple Ridge because that's all they can afford.

I'm not sure how you can look at all the economic numbers and conclude that Canada is a "bright light". We're literally the worst developed economy in the world. I can only guess you're too busy living it large off the HELOC from your "$1 million Mcmansions" to have noticed.

[LightingGuy]

Originally Posted by theman23

How many "young people" do you know?

"Young people" are already renting, cohabiting, waiting by delaying their lives for a far longer period of time than previous generations. "Young people" are not even particularly young anymore.

Only the most well off "young people" are buying the "$1 million McMansions" (more like $2.5 million in much of this country, since $1 million won't even get you a shack in large parts of this country let alone a McMansion). "Young people" are not buying "1 million McMansions" in Kitsilano, they're stretching to buy condos in Maple Ridge because that's all they can afford.

I'm not sure how you can look at all the economic numbers and conclude that Canada is a "bright light". We're literally the worst developed economy in the world. I can only guess you're too busy living it large off the HELOC from your "$1 million Mcmansions" to have noticed.

Good post

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by theman23

How many "young people" do you know?

"Young people" are already renting, cohabiting, waiting by delaying their lives for a far longer period of time than previous generations. "Young people" are not even particularly young anymore.

Only the most well off "young people" are buying the "$1 million McMansions" (more like $2.5 million in much of this country, since $1 million won't even get you a shack in large parts of this country let alone a McMansion). "Young people" are not buying "1 million McMansions" in Kitsilano, they're stretching to buy condos in Maple Ridge because that's all they can afford.

I'm not sure how you can look at all the economic numbers and conclude that Canada is a "bright light". We're literally the worst developed economy in the world. I can only guess you're too busy living it large off the HELOC from your "$1 million Mcmansions" to have noticed.

Yeah I don’t know any young people buying McMansions, unless their student getting the funds from their “housewife” mother or astronaut father.

[jigglysquishy]

QoL is hyper regional. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, you can make mistake after mistake and still end up a homeowner by 30. I know people with downpayments of $10k. Hell, I had a buddy buy a decent quality condo for $120k. Disposable income is high.

We have houses in the hood for under $50,000.

In Southern Ontario and BC, you can make smart choice after smart choice, work hard and have family help, and still be far from being a homeowner at 35. If you buy, disposable income is low.

Maritimes, Alberta; and Quebec is in between.

I don't think people from Toronto/Vancouver understand how cheap housing is here and how it completely changes your life. There's no saving for a downpayment for years. There's no 1 hour commute. Vacations for median income earners are plentiful. Retirement at 55 is doable. Retirement by 60 is very common.

It's basically two different worlds.

[ssiguy]

[QUOTE

Decreasing immigration will greatly increase our decline... that's a fact.

Canada has had a rough few years, but compared to other western economies is a pretty bright light - can't think of one that is doing better![/QUOTE]

No, decreasing our immigration will not led to our decline, in fact, quite the opposite. Canada has had a liberal immigration system for the last 3 decades and we continue to decline in productivity against our Western peers. There is a very big difference between growing an economy and getting richer.

Yes, we are selective in those who qualify for entry BUT this is more than off set by family reunification. Letting in high demand, highly skilled workers is one thing but simultaneously letting in their Mom, Dad, cousins, grandparents etc with no language or employment skills is quite another.

As for not thinking of any country doing better than Canada, you need to get out more. Our per-worker productivity is falling and importing cheap labour has clearly demonstrated itself to not be the way to solve it. The problem is that it does help our exceptionally unproductive real estate frenzy continue and that's all our politicians are concerned about. We are addicted to real estate and the addiction is slowly killing us. A strong real estate sector should be the result of a strong economy and rising wages but in Canada it's the exact opposite and our ridiculous reliance on it is devastating our economy, warping our capitol and labour usage, and giving us astronomical housing costs.

[casper]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Decreasing immigration will greatly increase our decline... that's a fact.

Canada has had a rough few years, but compared to other western economies is a pretty bright light - can't think of one that is doing better!

No, decreasing our immigration will not led to our decline, in fact, quite the opposite. Canada has had a liberal immigration system for the last 3 decades and we continue to decline in productivity against our Western peers. There is a very big difference between growing an economy and getting richer.

Yes, we are selective in those who qualify for entry BUT this is more than off set by family reunification. Letting in high demand, highly skilled workers is one thing but simultaneously letting in their Mom, Dad, cousins, grandparents etc with no language or employment skills is quite another.

As for not thinking of any country doing better than Canada, you need to get out more. Our per-worker productivity is falling and importing cheap labour has clearly demonstrated itself to not be the way to solve it. The problem is that it does help our exceptionally unproductive real estate frenzy continue and that's all our politicians are concerned about. We are addicted to real estate and the addiction is slowly killing us. A strong real estate sector should be the result of a strong economy and rising wages but in Canada it's the exact opposite and our ridiculous reliance on it is devastating our economy, warping our capitol and labour usage, and giving us astronomical housing costs.

I think the addiction to real-estate is over.

We need to increase productivity when and where we can. What has happened with provinces pushing up minimum wage has been a major factor in that. BDC has been giving out zero interest loans to small business undertaking digital transformation projects. That is all good stuff.

At the same time why would we turn our back on low margin and labour intensive industries. We should be growing our tourism sector. It is a negative from the productivity side, but that is ok. Why would we not want that industry? The same for other low margin industries. Atlantic Canada was going after call center companies for years. Again that is a low margin labour intensive industry. But why would we turn our back on that? Same thing for labour intensive agriculture. I am ok seeing these industries grow in Canada even if they negatively impact per-capita GDP.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

More young people today seem to want to jump into a $1M mcmansion right away in the best neighbourhood with the nicest car, yearly vacation and avocado toast and not do the hard part of waiting, cohabitating, living below their means, etc. I am pretty certain they will turn out fine.

Decreasing immigration will greatly increase our decline... that's a fact.

A strategy that is not dependent on fossil fuels and natural resources would be a great parallel strategy to support and take some of the pressure off boom and bust cycles.

Canada has had a rough few years, but compared to other western economies is a pretty bright light - can't think of one that is doing better!

Wow if this completely tone-deaf rant is what the Liberal brain trust really believes in, I would bet a pretty penny Justin will lose the next election.

Many young people today, especially in Southern Ontario and BC are stressing about paying next month's rent (if they don't get renovicted), and can barely dream of owning a studio not much bigger than a university dorm room. Canada is the opposite of a bright light, and at this point is only a couple more policy mistakes away from a major social crisis.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by theman23

I'm not sure how you can look at all the economic numbers and conclude that Canada is a "bright light". We're literally the worst developed economy in the world. I can only guess you're too busy living it large off the HELOC from your "$1 million Mcmansions" to have noticed.

Exactly. I guess hiring Hiliary to give the Liberals a 'ringing endorsement' has deluded the TruAnon supporters to believe Canada is a bright light despite all the empirical evidence suggesting otherwise.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

QoL is hyper regional. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, you can make mistake after mistake and still end up a homeowner by 30. I know people with downpayments of $10k. Hell, I had a buddy buy a decent quality condo for $120k. Disposable income is high.

We have houses in the hood for under $50,000.

In Southern Ontario and BC, you can make smart choice after smart choice, work hard and have family help, and still be far from being a homeowner at 35. If you buy, disposable income is low.

Maritimes, Alberta; and Quebec is in between.

I don't think people from Toronto/Vancouver understand how cheap housing is here and how it completely changes your life. There's no saving for a downpayment for years. There's no 1 hour commute. Vacations for median income earners are plentiful. Retirement at 55 is doable. Retirement by 60 is very common.

It's basically two different worlds.

It is very regional, but keep in mind that Ontario + BC alone account for half of the Canadian population. Add in other increasingly high-cost markets like Montreal, Halifax, and Calgary, and you have a large majority of Canadians living in places that are being acutely impacted by the housing crisis. What used to just be a Vancouver & Toronto problem has become a much wider one.

And even in the cheaper markets affordability is rapidly deteriorating, as housing/rental price appreciation continues to outpace wage growth.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

I think the addiction to real-estate is over.

Not yet it's not. From developers to small landlords everyone who got rich on real estate is convinced it will bounce back.

[LightingGuy]

Vancouver and Toronto's restrictive development policies are the likely causes of Halifax, Montreal and Calgary's price run ups. Hamilton, Kitchener, and London are just as unaffordable as GTA, so the spillover has reached other parts of the country. Fix the GTA and Vancouver's anti-development policies, and you fix the rest of the country.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The reality is that our standard of living has plunged in the last 40 years. Young people today simply don't realize how much of a lower standard of living they have than their parents and grandparents. They think having to go to university for 4 or 5 years and having their spouse do the same so they can get a one bedroom walk-in-closet means they are living the Canadian dream.

It's truly pathetic how many young people's long-term financial goals rely on their parents dropping dead. That of course assumes they picked the right parents because if they didn't they they will be a debt slave for the rest of their lives. We were once a very high income nation and now we are a high income one. We will never even touch Greece's situation but in 40 years we could be near Italy's but with an astronomically higher cost of living due to our ridiculous housing costs.

We are a nation in decline and we must make a radical change in course in our economic policies and a monumental decline in our immigration levels is where we have to start.

This is total nonsense. 40 years ago most graduates couldn't even get jobs. Vacations outside the province and even restaurants were rare for most. New clothes were a once a year thing for most families.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is total nonsense. 40 years ago most graduates couldn't even get jobs. Vacations outside the province and even restaurants were rare for most. New clothes were a once a year thing for most families.

I think this is all quite subjective and harder to quantify.

Personally I grew up quite poor, by my kids are on a totally different level. Like bottom quintile to top quintile. So when I try to compare experiences, I don't know what "typical" might be like.

I had hand me down clothes and we lived in shitty rentals. I remember friends with big homes, new toys, Disneyland trips and so on. But I don't know if they were solidly middle class or not.

[acottawa]

It is hard to compare the two.

In the 1980s middle class people could afford houses, including in major cities, now that is a pipe dream. Food was cheaper (although tastes also tended towards cheaper). Durable and semi durable goods were more expensive. Flights were way more expensive (because of regulations).

Unemployment is lower now, although generally more precarious than it was 40 years ago. Housingin large cities is now limited to the very affluent, but things that aren’t food or energy are relatively cheap.

[LightingGuy]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is total nonsense. 40 years ago most graduates couldn't even get jobs. Vacations outside the province and even restaurants were rare for most. New clothes were a once a year thing for most families.

This argument doesn't hold. You're talking about certain technologies which have become cheaper - this has nothing to do with quality of life.

In the 80s people had far more disposable income/savings than they do now. And they had far less debt. Unfortunately I can't find a graph for household debt that extend into the early 80s, but it's unlikely that debt just plummeted over a few years, especially considering how cheap houses were in the 80s.


https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/...ds-debt-to-gdp


https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/personal-savings

[acottawa]

A lot of that is interest rates though.