I genuinely like 308 and I think Grenier does a good job of aggregating polls given what he gets. In New Brunswick, IMO the following will probably occur in the federal election. These should be taken with a grain of salt, though, as it's still more than two months out:
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html
I think the aggregation model over estimates the NDP in Saint John and underestimates the Conservatives in Madawaska-Restigouche. I can't see how the NDP makes up enough votes at the expense of
both the Liberals and Conservatives to win Saint John-Rothesay. I'm expecting this to be a Conservative hold.
In Madawaska I haven't seen any evidence that Valcourt will lose his seat. Despite what some may think of his ministerial file he's still a senior Cabinet Minister...can't see him losing this seat unless there's some serious movement on the ground there.
308's aggregation for Moncton and Miramichi looks to be spot on. I would be shocked if Goguen wins Moncton again. Wouldn't be as shocked if O'Neill-Gordon loses Miramichi. A lot of these real depend on how much vote split there is between the NDP and Liberals. In 2011 the NDP had a higher vote than the Liberals in many ridings and a lot depends on whether the NDP improve on that or if the Liberals return back to their pre-2011 numbers. Given 2015's relative strength of the NDP it's possible they cancel each other out and the Conservatives will hold on to a lot of these vote-splits, particularly in places in Miramichi and Madawaska.
I'm guessing that if the NDP make any improvements at all we'll see it most in Saint John, but it will be interesting to see if there is bleedover from Godin's riding into Miramichi, Beausejour, and Madawaska. It'll be interesting to see if the NDP improve their numbers at all.
I'm also interested to see how the Greens fare in some of these areas, particularly in Fredericton and Charlottetown, two places where they now have Provincial representatives (imagine saying that five years ago!). It's been confirmed that the Greens have had a major ground assault on Charlottetown recently and think they can do well there. I'd be surprised if Coon doesn't do similar things in Fredericton in support of the Federal Greens. The most recent Green Party AGM was held in Fredericton...in the event that the Greens do improve their numbers in these two ridings it will be interesting to see what happens to the other parties and where they gain those votes from.
For example, in 2011, the Greens garnered 2% of the vote in Charlottetown. The Liberals won this riding by less than 7% over the Conservatives (39% to 33%). In the event that the Greens gain between 3-10%, where do these votes come from? The NDP had 25% of the vote in 2011 in this riding...do the Greens take votes equally from the other three parties or from one in particular?
In Fredericton in 2011 the Conservatives won by roughly 20% over the NDP. In this riding the Greens received 4% of the vote. How high does the Green vote go in Fredericton? 5%? 7%? 10%? Their possible increase in support could determine these two ridings in 2015.
Edit - As it turns out, Bevan-Baker's federal riding would be Malpeque (where he ran in 2011). If that's the case, Easter for the Liberals won that by a mere 3% with the Greens receiving 4% of the vote. It's a bit odd how two of the Green's strongest areas in the country could be islands (Vancouver & Prince Edward).
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