[Saint John] Fundy Quay (South Market Wharf) | 19-6s | 70m-26m | U/C

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by michael_d40

Also - Regarding the highest apartment vacancy rates - Not a fair statement. Yes, I'm aware of what reports say. However, if one eliminates all of the shacks from the North, and South End from that data, what would our true vacancy rate be? A lot of the apartments in those areas are sitting vacant because they are complete dumps that are not fit to live in. In my office, there's always many people moving to the city for work, and not a soul has moved to the North End. Can't say I blame them.

I can't blame them either and i'm not arguing your sentiment but at the end of it the North and South Ends are still within the municipality. In a perfect world perhaps we could absolve those areas from statistics but that's not how these things work. Numbers need to be taken as a whole and can't be cherry-picked to suit whatever we'd like/need.

As much as i'm sure most of us would like to we cannot just pretend that these two neighbourhoods no longer exist for the purposes of looking good in statistics.

Otherwise, great points re: Class A vacancy. It's something that not a lot of people are aware of when office vacancy numbers are announced/referenced in the media.

[HardTruth]

Originally Posted by michael_d40

A lot of the apartments in those areas are sitting vacant because they are complete dumps that are not fit to live in.

A good check against this type of thinking is to look at the largest player in the mid to up scale apartment market. That being Killam Properties.

They own 1,200 units in the city and the average rent for all is 750$.

In June 2011 the occupancy rate for Killam in SJ was 97.8%
In Mar 2013 the occupancy rate for Killam in SJ was 92.5%

This is the sharpest decline for that company in any of their markets. All the while there have been very few new units built in the area.

Sounds to me like a good time to build! build! build!

[Helladog]

Originally Posted by HardTruth

...The city has currently:

- The highest unemployment of any metro in Canada
- One of the highest apartment vacancy rates in Canada
- highest hotel vacancy of major centres in Atlantic Canada
- High commercial vacancy rate
- stagnant population growth...

Saint John, NB,

Hey, at least we're not Detroit

[Ire Narissis]

Originally Posted by Helladog

Saint John, NB,

Hey, at least we're not Detroit

Just like Cleveland!

[Southpaw78]

While everyone is certainly entitled to their opinions and there is room for pessimism, I find it hard to believe that any developer would move ahead with a development as large scale as this without knowing all of the risks. SJWD and the developer (I assume) know the significance and value of developing this property so, I would aim to believe it is something that is going to be of quality. Anyone who is smart is not going to build because in the end it's them that's going to lose out significantly on their investment. And well if they're not, well at least they took the risk and out a lot of cash!

[UptownJeff]

Originally Posted by Southpaw78

While everyone is certainly entitled to their opinions and there is room for pessimism, I find it hard to believe that any developer would move ahead with a development as large scale as this without knowing all of the risks. SJWD and the developer (I assume) know the significance and value of developing this property so, I would aim to believe it is something that is going to be of quality. Anyone who is smart is not going to build because in the end it's them that's going to lose out significantly on their investment. And well if they're not, well at least they took the risk and out a lot of cash!

Completely agree - also, I really don't beleive EVERYTHING we do as a City has to wait for a major announcement - we should continue to make this a livable city for those of us here. In addition, developing the waterfront will entice tourists and not just those from out of the province but our neighbours in Moncton, Fredericton etc. Make SJ a destination - what are we going to do today....lets drive to SJ because they have alot of fun and interesting things to do....that's what I want to see!

[Fischbob]

Originally Posted by HardTruth

A good check against this type of thinking is to look at the largest player in the mid to up scale apartment market. That being Killam Properties.

They own 1,200 units in the city and the average rent for all is 750$.

In June 2011 the occupancy rate for Killam in SJ was 97.8%
In Mar 2013 the occupancy rate for Killam in SJ was 92.5%

This is the sharpest decline for that company in any of their markets. All the while there have been very few new units built in the area.

Sounds to me like a good time to build! build! build!

The thing about Killam is that many of their buildings in SJ are located in fairly suburban contexts. Let's see what happens if we focus on their properties on the Uptown Peninsula:

Sydney Arms: 55 units, 1 advertised vacancy.
Carleton Tower: 60 units, 4 advertised vacancies.

Total: 115 units, 5 advertised vacancies for a vacancy rate of approximately 4.35%. Night and day compared to Killam's overall vacancy rate in SJ.

Meanwhile, Historica Properties has just one advertised vacancy across all its residential buildings (and these are high-end units - priced higher than Killam's), and is bringing 25 more apartment units online soon. Hardly a sign that this isn't an appropriate time to invest Uptown.

The fact of the matter is that the vacancy rate citywide is not necessarily reflective of localized market conditions (and as michael_d40 pointed out, it's not necessarily reflective of the situation for specific quality segments either). The Coast Guard site is the most prime urban development location in New Brunswick, and by virtue of that alone it will have a higher demand profile than other locations. Not all situations are worthy of the phrase "build it and they will come", but I think that it absolutely applies here.

[Fischbob]

August 1st, 2013:



Source: me

[RedBall]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

August 1st, 2013:



Source: me

I am hoping to see cranes in the next post of that view.


+~-/\/\-~+

[Fischbob]

A couple more angles.

From the Delta:


From the Boardwalk:


Source: me

[Helladog]

Originally Posted by Southpaw78

There is an article in the TJ today indicating Waterfront Development is "very, very close" to signing a deal with an announcement to come in September on who the developer is.

Looks like not much longer...

[kwajo]

I second the eye roll, we've been hearing that the announcement is "very close" for a very long time now (not to mention that an announcement of a project in Saint John is often not even an indication that it will ever get built).

[Southpaw78]

Originally Posted by kwajo

I second the eye roll, we've been hearing that the announcement is "very close" for a very long time now (not to mention that an announcement of a project in Saint John is often not even an indication that it will ever get built).

This is getting to be a "boy who cried wolf" scenario. It's hard to believe anything anyone says about this project anymore...

[KnoxfordGuy]

Originally Posted by UptownJeff

Completely agree - also, I really don't beleive EVERYTHING we do as a City has to wait for a major announcement - we should continue to make this a livable city for those of us here. In addition, developing the waterfront will entice tourists and not just those from out of the province but our neighbours in Moncton, Fredericton etc. Make SJ a destination - what are we going to do today....lets drive to SJ because they have alot of fun and interesting things to do....that's what I want to see!

Call me crazy, but I really enjoy going to Saint John for an overnight trip every few months to change things up from Fredericton.

[michael_d40]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Call me crazy, but I really enjoy going to Saint John for an overnight trip every few months to change things up from Fredericton.

You're not crazy. People in this city are generally miserable, and don't appreciate what they have.

I left Nova Scotia 10 years ago for university in Fredericton. Six months later realized Fredericton wasn't for me, and transferred to UNBSJ to complete my degree, and it was the best decision I made. Now 10 years later, I've recently found out that people I graduated with from Nova Scotia also live here. They are Engineers, Teachers, Nurses, lawyers, and others - just to name a few. They all love it to. But if SJ is dying with everybody leaving, and everybody is so poor, how can this be?

I actually find it quite offensive when people simply spew off that the majority of us are all so poor. Perhaps I just run in a different circle than others who seem to throw this city under the bus, and complain on social media sites, or even this forum. However, everybody I know seem to do quite well, and enjoy living here, and have actually made the choice to choose to make New Brunswick their home, and specifically Saint John. *End Rant*

[UptownJeff]

Originally Posted by michael_d40

you're not crazy. People in this city are generally miserable, and don't appreciate what they have.

I left nova scotia 10 years ago for university in fredericton. Six months later realized fredericton wasn't for me, and transferred to unbsj to complete my degree, and it was the best decision i made. Now 10 years later, i've recently found out that people i graduated with from nova scotia also live here. They are engineers, teachers, nurses, lawyers, and others - just to name a few. They all love it to. But if sj is dying with everybody leaving, and everybody is so poor, how can this be?

I actually find it quite offensive when people simply spew off that the majority of us are all so poor. Perhaps i just run in a different circle than others who seem to throw this city under the bus, and complain on social media sites, or even this forum. However, everybody i know seem to do quite well, and enjoy living here, and have actually made the choice to choose to make new brunswick their home, and specifically saint john. *end rant*

ditto!

[KnoxfordGuy]

Both my aunt and uncle bring in between them both over 200 thousand dollars a year and they moved to Saint John in 1975 to start their new lives from rural western New Brunswick. they are still there to this day. She is head of dialysis at the hospital and he worked for NBTel then Aliant for years. They have always loved Saint John. Not everyone is poor there like you say.

Edit: getting off topic...lets move on lol.

[swish]

My wife and I love Saint John and are considering moving there someday. By far the best city in NB!

[Southpaw78]

Originally Posted by swish

My wife and I love Saint John and are considering moving there someday. By far the best city in NB!

I too plan on moving back someday. My partner is from Ottawa and absolutely loves SJ.

You don't know what you've had until it's been taken away from you. And this is coming from someone who 10 years ago made it a life mission to get as far away from SJ as possible...So funny how the tables turn.

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by swish

My wife and I love Saint John and are considering moving there someday. By far the best city in NB!

Could not agree more! I lived in Fredericton for a few years but it was not for me. With my profession I have the opportunity to work and live anywhere in the world I want, and Saint John is where I chose.

There is plenty of wealth in Saint John, by far the most in NB. There is also substantial poverty, the most in NB, but we still have highest average levels of income, home values, etc..