Canada's 4th city

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

And don't forget the Port of Vancouver, which has a massive impact on Canada's economy.

Originally Posted by Changing City

Calgary isn't more finacially or economically more important than Vancouver, that's just you trolling again (unless you think Vancouver isn't in Western Canada?) It has just over half the population in 2023 (1.68m compared to 2.97m), just over half the GDP, and in 2023 it had 18.5m passengers fly through the airport, compared to 24.9m at YVR. Colliers show Vancouver's office vacancy rate is 8.6% (the lowest in Canada), with 4.7m sq ft under construction, and Calgary's is 26.4% (the highest), with none being built.

Impressive Vancouver numbers for sure. That said, I can’t help but think of how much worse, ironically, Vancouver’s carbon footprint is compared to Calgary.

Flames have infinitely more Stanley cups than the Canucks. At least Calgary has that.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Acknowledging that I may be throwing a grenade in here, but as the World slooooowly transitions away from oil, will Calgary hold the same importance 30 years from now?

Only time will tell. We’ll first have to wait for the world to actually start to slowly transition from oil. 2024 is projected to be record year in oil consumption, beating the previous record year of 2023.

While the world has yet to slowly transition from oil, Calgary’s economy has transitioned its dependence on the oil market.

[Spocket]

Well, I've lived in Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton and China among other places.

I visit Calgary but have never lived there.

All three of these cities have a lot going for them but all in different arenas.
Sadly, despite living there and rather enjoying the city, Edmonton currently is outshined by the other two. This is simply because if you were to measure these three against each other from a non-Canadian perspective, Edmonton simply doesn't have the cache even if it is somewhat well known around the world.

Culturally, I'd actually put Edmonton above both Calgary and Ottawa. However, I would put Winnipeg above all three so it's a rather moot point.

Economically, well, that's easy: Calgary.
Politically? Obviously Ottawa.

Now, I would say that this discussion isn't really about what we think is the number 4 city in Canada but rather what outsiders think it is.
So, when Canada makes international news, there's a very good chance Ottawa is going to come up. However, my personal and therefore, anecdotal, experience tells me what most people instinctively know already: just because people have heard of a place doesn't mean they know the first thing about it. A lot of the world's knowledge of Canada is intermingled with what they think they know about the US. I'd wager most people around the world couldn't tell you which country either city is in if they've heard of the cities in the first place. Most likely they could place Ottawa but even then, it's just another random city to most. Yeah, I can't tell you how many times I was asked about kangaroos after mentioning I was from Canada while outside of it.

Globally, Calgary is an economic powerhouse. It's a busy air, high tech and logistics hub. We have to give the place a fair bit of credit: the city grew from a small local hub into said powerhouse for reasons that have little to do with more than the people who lead it. The oil was mostly always in the north. Edmonton was always bigger. Edmonton was the capital. Edmonton had every advantage yet Calgary somehow managed to outgrow it. This has to be chocked up to the city's can-do ethic.

Ottawa is a pretty city but will always be outshined by Montreal and Toronto which, as we all know, are within easy reach. It's become a city in its own right but we can't ignore the fact that being the seat of national government imbues the city with vast opportunity which, I would say, has not been exploited to maximum potential.

Now, if people around the world were asked to name just 4 Canadian cities (and, well, sure, we'll consider the Canadian opinion as well) I would be surprised if the answers didn't reveal a roughly 50/50 split between Calgary and Ottawa. But that, I believe, is the tell: Neither city is a global alpha but Ottawa has more reason to be mentioned in global news than does Calgary. So that tells me that the fact that Calgary would spring to mind at all says something about its true importance on Canada's national scene. Therefore, I would say Calgary is likely our fourth city.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Safe to say Toronto is the center centre of the universe. None of the others matter.

Go Stars!

You joke but there's an element of truth to this. It's the only Alpha city we have. And Toronto's CMA alone has 2M more people than Montreal. But in reality Toronto isn't just Toronto. The core Golden Horseshoe with the GTA, Hamilton and Oshawa together is 8M. That's 20% of the country's population within a 60 km radius of the CN tower. There's nothing else like that in Canada.

In reality, for Canada, Toronto is in a league of its own. Then Montreal by itself as a city of 4M. Then Vancouver at almost half the size of Montreal. And then there's Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa in the 1-2M league. Each of those could actually just be a large suburb in the GTA, by population.

[Loco101]

If the merger of municipalties in Peel Region in Ontario had gone ahead, its new city population would be pretty close to Calgary's CMA population.

[osmo]

Originally Posted by DesignerGuy

The only reason Ottawa is not an airport hub is because of geography. It is placed between Toronto and Montreal, the two largest cities in Canada with Pearson being the premier airport in the country only a 45 minute flight away, it just didn't make sense for Ottawa to become a hub.

Calgary is an hub because it is quite isolated and is the largest city in the Prairie Provinces plus the oil lol

I feel Ottawa is always wrongfully stereotyped as a boring provincial city but it has changed dramatically in the last 5 years. Population is growing fast, we are a tech hub within Canada (along with Vancouver, Toronto, Waterloo etc...). Geographically we are positioned in a stunning landscape of forest, rivers, fertile farmland to the south and east and are close to major US markets.

Downtown to downtown from MTL to Ottawa is less than 2 hours (traffic permitting) and the two regions together are home to 6 million + people

Ottawa is a city of festivals - Tulip, Winterlude, Jazz Fest, Bluesfest being the more prominent that attract visitors from around the world.

Downtown and around the core are densifying rapidly and you can feel the energy when you walk around. LRT is extending to airport and the east and west suburbs. New library on a prime location is under construction, cranes dot the skyline, big city proposals abound.

My take is Ottawa and Calgary can tie for 4th but Ottawa being the National Capital might give it the edge over Calgary.

West Jet?
Canadian Airlines?

Calgary has a long history with commercial aviation. It has strategically been a focal point for commercial airlines for a few decades now.

Ottawa is only noteworthy as it is the capital.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

If the merger of municipalties in Peel Region in Ontario had gone ahead, its new city population would be pretty close to Calgary's CMA population.

Exactly. Calgary, Ottawa and Edmonton feel big by Canadian standards and to the residents. And because they are independent cities they are usually large and spread out. But several GTA regional municipalities like Peel or York could have similar population and nobody thinks of them as the fourth or fifth largest city in Canada. I call Ottawa, "Mississauga on the Rideau" because that is exactly what it feels like to me. Mostly a giant suburb.

Entirely possible, for example, that in 15-20 years, especially post-RER, Hamilton is more populated than Winnipeg or Quebec City, and Oshawa is more populated than London or Halifax. It's going to be eye-opening when people finally understand how transformative RER will be.

[biguc]

Originally Posted by Maldive

oh my nail meet hammer. Cheers to the "(former) skyscraper nerds" wherever they park their boats.

You're honestly a hero for keeping the skyscraper content alive. Thank you for your service

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by biguc

I guess the point is, does it matter? What's the fourth city in the US? San Francisco? Houston? How about in Argentina? Or Mexico? Who gives a shit, right?

I'm pretty firmly on the side of who gives a shit, but in the case of the US, I have to think that Miami is the pretty obvious, though often forgotten, 4th city.

10-15 years ago, I think Calgary would have been the undisputed 4th city of Canada, but with the oil & gas industry experiencing a relative decline and with the Calgary School becoming less relevant, it seems far less present on the mind now than it did then.

At the same time, as government now seems more tied to personality than place; Ottawa as the institution of government has receded from the forefront and been replaced by Trudeau, and I think that has led Ottawa the city to be less prominent as well.

[MonctonRad]

The US is actually quite similar to Canada in this regard. America, like us, has a well agreed upon "top three" - NYC, LA and Chicago.

I would argue the "next three" in the US are Houston, Atlanta and Washington - two regional metropoli and the national capital.

For both Canada and the US, I would give the #4 place to the national capitals. I lived in DC for a winter going to the AFIP (Armed Forces Institute of Pathology), and I have visited Ottawa often. Both cities display importance and gravitas befitting their status. This outweighs any regional metropolis, be it Houston or Calgary.

[Build.It]

The way I look at it is by answering the following question:

If city X suddenly disappeared, how deeply would it be felt by the rest of the country/world?

If Calgary and Ottawa both ceased to exist, I think Calgary's disappearance would be felt to a greater extent internationally. Domestically it would be more equal. Government is only relevant within our borders, but Calgary's industriousness is relevant around the globe. Ottawa's private sector pales in comparison.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Exactly. Calgary, Ottawa and Edmonton feel big by Canadian standards and to the residents. And because they are independent cities they are usually large and spread out. But several GTA regional municipalities like Peel or York could have similar population and nobody thinks of them as the fourth or fifth largest city in Canada. I call Ottawa, "Mississauga on the Rideau" because that is exactly what it feels like to me. Mostly a giant suburb.

Entirely possible, for example, that in 15-20 years, especially post-RER, Hamilton is more populated than Winnipeg or Quebec City, and Oshawa is more populated than London or Halifax. It's going to be eye-opening when people finally understand how transformative RER will be.

Reading the Statistics thread yesterday, I was just thinking how people have been saying for 20-30 years or more that Hamilton is just on the verge of a huge boom that will leave Winnipeg and Quebec City in the dust.

Yet it never happens.

Perhaps RER will change all of that? I'll wait and see.

[goodgrowth]

I dunno I think the recent population growth numbers cement Calgary as 4th.

Being situated next to the Rockies is going to be an eternal draw imo...especially for young people. Certainly more so than mediocre looking government buildings.

There is also a lot of negative bias and outdated views on the Alberta/Calgary economy and future on here that I just think isn't accurate.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The US is actually quite similar to Canada in this regard. America, like us, has a well agreed upon "top three" - NYC, LA and Chicago.

I would argue the "next three" in the US are Houston, Atlanta and Washington - two regional metropoli and the national capital.

For both Canada and the US, I would give the #4 place to the national capitals. I lived in DC for a winter going to the AFIP (Armed Forces Institute of Pathology), and I have visited Ottawa often. Both cities display importance and gravitas befitting their status. This outweighs any regional metropolis, be it Houston or Calgary.

It's a similar vibe to Canada actually with Dallas and Houston certainly leading all the others in GDP (as do Calgary and Edmonton) and probably population depending how you measure but DC having a certain cache.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by jamincan

I'm pretty firmly on the side of who gives a shit, but in the case of the US, I have to think that Miami is the pretty obvious, though often forgotten, 4th city.
.

Really? Miami's definitely top 10, but Boston and San Francisco are more important culturally, economically, historically, politically, intellectually, than Miami is.

Even Philadelphia might be more important than Miami.

[Maldive]

Originally Posted by biguc

You're honestly a hero for keeping the skyscraper content alive. Thank you for your service

Thank you for speaking out loud (lurkers be damned ).

Appreciate the props.

[Paper Boy]

Originally Posted by jamincan

I'm pretty firmly on the side of who gives a shit, but in the case of the US, I have to think that Miami is the pretty obvious, though often forgotten, 4th city.

10-15 years ago, I think Calgary would have been the undisputed 4th city of Canada, but with the oil & gas industry experiencing a relative decline and with the Calgary School becoming less relevant, it seems far less present on the mind now than it did then.

At the same time, as government now seems more tied to personality than place; Ottawa as the institution of government has receded from the forefront and been replaced by Trudeau, and I think that has led Ottawa the city to be less prominent as well.

It is definitely less present on this forum. However this is more due to the formers leaving than the City itself.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

I dunno I think the recent population growth numbers cement Calgary as 4th.

Being situated next to the Rockies is going to be an eternal draw imo...especially for young people. Certainly more so than mediocre looking government buildings.

In terms of population, Metro Ottawa and Calgary (and Edmonton to a certain degree) have been battling for 4th place for many years. Until there's a half million difference between the two, I don't think either can claim the crown.

Ottawa is also a very outdoorsy city. We don't have the Rockies, but we have the Greenbelt, Gatineau Park and the Gatineau Hills nearby, the Ottawa River and we're not far from the Laurentians and Mont-Tremblant (not quite as spectacular as the Rockies, but very similar in terms of outdoor sports culture).

Originally Posted by Acajack

Really? Miami's definitely top 10, but Boston and San Francisco are more important culturally, economically, historically, politically, intellectually, than Miami is.

Even Philadelphia might be more important than Miami.

I would agree.

[Innsertnamehere]

Miami is definitely not the US fourth city.

It's really tough to say who gets that crown, but definitely not Miami.

The US has a few metro areas in that 7-8 million range - San Fransisco / San Jose, Washington, Houston, Dallas. I'd say San Fransisco and Washington have more prominence than Houston or Dallas do though due to Big Tech and the Feds. San Fransisco being the Venture Capitalism Capital gives it a ton of clout.

Below those four you have another tier of the Miamis, Bostons, Atlantas, and Philidelphias.

[niwell]

Miami's quite important in the Latin American / Caribbean sphere but outside of that I'm not sure many see it as much more than a vacation destination. Interestingly Toronto is weirdly important in the latter area too.