Has the Toronto building boom peaked?

[Gnarly]

Interesting statistics.

https://torontosun.com/news/local-ne...-north-america

[koops65]

208 cranes? Wow are they ever behind the times... there are around 360 actually. UT tracks this kind of stuff carefully.

[koops65]

Here is another construction update featuring the 38 skyscrapers currently U/C in Toronto right now.

[IMG][/IMG]

10 of them will be completed in the next few months, bringing the total number of skyscrapers in Toronto to 96. Several more that are already topped off will be finished soon after in early 2024. Which one will be #100?

There are also 6 or 7 more skyscrapers in site prep that will be joining the U/C list soon...

[koops65]

So, the number of tall proposals has dropped off significantly over the last few months... perhaps the peak has been reached? There are still plenty of towers U/C and more in site prep. The number of towers U/C has also dropped from about 240-250 to 215 now. Another sign that things are slowing down.

[C.]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

In my new 2017 edition of the "World Almanac" list of tall buildings, I noticed that Toronto has almost 30 500' (a bit over 150 m) buildings under construction, mostly condo/apt. towers or mixed use towers. This is far more than any other N.Am city (except NYC) including L.A., S.F., & Miami, site of other booms. Is Toronto different in some way, or is this a "bubble" top? Could this be the 2007 peak all over again? I hope not, but who knows? Are the new condos being bought as quickly as last year? Are concessions being offered? What is the vacancy rate in the new buildings? Are more sales starting to fail for whatever reason? Price concessions are being offered in L.A. & S.F. to attract buyers. Are price concessions being offered in Toronto?

L.A., S.F. (& Miami) has a great deal of new supply of new condos catering to wealthy people (often foreigners), few for middle class. Only so many wealthy buyers remain. Maybe this is the problem? I'm pretty sure the building booms in L.A. & S.F. have peaked (or are close to peaking) but don't know enough about Toronto to say for sure about the situation there. Only 10% of people in S.F. & L.A. can afford the new condos & houses being built. Are Toronto condos more affordable for middle income people?

(I have a degree in economics & finance & have a special interest in economic cycles, especially real estate cycles).

This post was originally made in January 2017. It's now 7 years later, and I think it's safe to say that the condo market in Toronto has finally peaked from the year-after-year growth. However, based on the number of threads in the Proposals forum, it looks like the Toronto market is still markedly robust.

[koops65]

The number of new starts has almost dried up. The number of new proposals has also almost dried up. Things have slowed down considerably. But there is still plenty of existing construction going on...

[Doady]

Since the beginning of this high-rise boom, only three new rail transit stations opened in the city of Toronto and another three in Vaughan. But within the next year, another 41 stations will be opening along Eglinton and Finch. And outside of Toronto, 19 stations will be opening along Hurontario.

These three new lines opening within a year of each other will be the first full-length rail transit lines to be built in the Toronto area since the Bloor-Danforth Line in 1966 with 20 stations. After decades of highway construction, these three new lines and their 60 stations represent a major cultural shift in Toronto. They will provide a massive increase in the capacity of the transportation system, significantly reducing the costs of development, and providing a marketing opportunity for developers. So arguably we have only seen the beginning of high-rise construction boom.

[koops65]

There is also the 100 000 plus people moving to Toronto year after year to consider...

[Doady]

More like 50-60k per year.

People talk a lot of about population growth, but the real problem is population decline in most neighbourhoods in the Toronto area. Houses designed for 3-4 people become home to 1-2 people only.

You can see this map here, most census tracts in the CMA lost population from 2016 to 2021:

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...-01-00-eng.pdf

You can see former Toronto, Mississauga. Scarborough and Thornhill were the worst places in terms of decline. It highlights the importance of increasing the capacity of transit in the older neighbourhoods, at least until the old people die off and their houses become available to young families again.

[C.]

Originally Posted by Doady

It highlights the importance of increasing the capacity of transit in the older neighbourhoods, at least until the old people die off and their houses become available to young families again.

Disagree. Transit is not the problem. Developers should simply be allowed to build 4 units or more on each plot. The would quadruple density in any neighborhoods. But of course, the racist neighborhood characteristics.

[Doady]

Originally Posted by C.

Disagree. Transit is not the problem. Developers should simply be allowed to build 4 units or more on each plot. The would quadruple density in any neighborhoods. But of course, the racist neighborhood characteristics.

There is high density zoning all over the GTA. The high density doesn't get built because there is not enough transit. Just because you allow developers to build something doesn't mean that they will.

[C.]

Originally Posted by Doady

There is high density zoning all over the GTA. The high density doesn't get built because there is not enough transit. Just because you allow developers to build something doesn't mean that they will.

You realize you're arguing against redevelopment of the yellowbelt. Toronto is such a crazy city where you will see a 50-story building on top of a subway station right next door to single-family homes because of exclusionary zoning. There is also land economics. Concentrating high density development in just a few sites, makes those few sites much more valuable (and expensive for land development purposes) as opposed to opening up to a much larger area like rezoning the yellowbelt would bring.

[BaddieB]

Originally Posted by Gnarly

Interesting statistics.

https://torontosun.com/news/local-ne...-north-america

Vancouver would probably rank higher if it was amalgamated. Many cranes in Burnaby, Coquitlam, etc