AUSTIN | ABIA Updates

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by chinchaaa

I can tell you don’t work in tech. Dublin is definitely coming, it’s only a matter of when.

Actually, I am aware of Dublin's status in the tech world. And, in all fairness, I did not say it wasn't going to happen. Just not anytime soon.

A mainline legacy carrier would have to pick it up (AA, UAL, or DL). And that is where I don't see this happening anytime soon.

Aer Lingus does not currently have enough long haul aircraft (A333) to initiate the route.

[gabetx]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

Actually, I am aware of Dublin's status in the tech world. And, in all fairness, I did not say it wasn't going to happen. Just not anytime soon.

A mainline legacy carrier would have to pick it up (AA, UAL, or DL). And that is where I don't see this happening anytime soon.

Aer Lingus does not currently have enough long haul aircraft (A333) to initiate the route.

Can the A321-XLR make the haul? I know they fly Montreal to Paris, and Chicago to Lisbon, ect.

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by gabetx

Can the A321-XLR make the haul? I know they fly Montreal to Paris, and Chicago to Lisbon, ect.

Austin is right at the sweet spot that if under ideal conditions the A321xlr could possibly make it from Dublin but more than likely a fuel stop would be needed, especially flying west. The A330 would be a much better aircraft for the mission, much longer legs to give the pilots options if Austin’s weather is bad and the alternates is as well.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by masonh2479

Austin is right at the sweet spot that if under ideal conditions the A321xlr could possibly make it from Dublin but more than likely a fuel stop would be needed, especially flying west. The A330 would be a much better aircraft for the mission, much longer legs to give the pilots options if Austin’s weather is bad and the alternates is as well.

The max range of the A321XLR is about 4,700 NM. The distance from Austin to Dublin is about 4,030 NM. So, no. MasonH is correct. This would not be the aircraft of choice for the route. It would have to be their A333 product.

Regarding their A333's, I don't see them pulling what few they have off any other route to initiate one from Austin (right now). Also, Aer Lingus does not currently have any new long haul liners on order. And, they have placed an order for only 6 A321XLR's (which will not be delivered until 2023 at the earliest).

There may be a possibility of using a few of those on routes to Boston, Toronto and New York which may free up a A333 (or two). But, who knows what their long term plans are at the moment.

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

The max range of the A321XLR is about 4,700 NM. The distance from Austin to Dublin is about 4,030 NM. So, no. MasonH is correct. This would not be the aircraft of choice for the route. It would have to be their A333 product.

Regarding their A333's, I don't see them pulling what few they have off any other route to initiate one from Austin (right now). Also, Aer Lingus does not currently have any new long haul liners on order. And, they have placed an order for only 6 A321XLR's (which will not be delivered until 2023 at the earliest).

There may be a possibility of using a few of those on routes to Boston, Toronto and New York which may free up a A333 (or two). But, who knows what their long term plans are at the moment.

Aer Lingus did have an order for A350 aircraft that was cancelled last year, the IAG group they are in does have A350s in the fleet so I guess if really needed some could be painted and shifted to Are Lingus. I think if they did have the aircraft Austin would be on their radar, it might happen once the 321 aircraft enter and remove the A330 from some routes. AA has launched a partnership with Are Lingus today so it is possible AA could be the provider for the flight to Dublin, they are hurting from the 787 delivery delays though. https://www.aviationnepal.com/aer-li...g-a350-orders/
https://onemileatatime.com/news/amer...s-partnership/

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by masonh2479

Aer Lingus did have an order for A350 aircraft that was cancelled last year, the IAG group they are in does have A350s in the fleet so I guess if really needed some could be painted and shifted to Are Lingus. I think if they did have the aircraft Austin would be on their radar, it might happen once the 321 aircraft enter and remove the A330 from some routes. AA has launched a partnership with Are Lingus today so it is possible AA could be the provider for the flight to Dublin, they are hurting from the 787 delivery delays though. https://www.aviationnepal.com/aer-li...g-a350-orders/
https://onemileatatime.com/news/amer...s-partnership/

Aer Lingus did have five A359s on order. And, as you have pointed out, they transferred that equipment to IAG. They're opting for the A321XLR instead.

The A359 is no longer in Aer Lingus' current fleet plan so it really doesn't make since for them pull a 180 just to add Austin. And, I don't believe they're hurting for long haul aircraft. It's clear their route expansion plans have changed dramatically due to the pandemic.

[masonh2479]

BA has suspended Baltimore, Nashville, and New Orleans flights. Hopefully this does not affect Austin, A350 service is starting February 28th. https://www.the-sun.com/travel/44377...lle-baltimore/

[masonh2479]

Here’s the November passenger and cargo numbers, best November on record. https://www.austintexas.gov/news/nov...stin-bergstrom

[Echostatic]

Third best month for passenger traffic at ABIA, ever. In November. This place is busting at the seams!

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by Echostatic

Third best month for passenger traffic at ABIA, ever. In November. This place is busting at the seams!

I wonder when the airport will peak, during this peak growth it would be nice if construction was ongoing with a little more urgency. I wish the airport would post more regular construction updates like they used to as it would be nice to see how close gate 13 is to being finished. That is the nearest opportunity for the airport to relieve at least a little congestion. Also, how many stands are being build or are built for planes to sit for bus loading. A little more behind the scenes from the airport would be nice now that Austin1971 seems to have left unfortunately.

Another question, how much international capacity do we have left, I think we still have quite a bit for international expansion but I don't know, customs can handle 600 an hour I believe.

[ATXboom]

The customers processing room needs to be redesigned... it's hot trash and clunky. Could be much more efficient with a redesign. Can't even fit a few hundred in there with bagagge claim taking up so much room. Redesign the baggage claim, put the arrival forms computers in a pass through on way to the customs officers.

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by ATXboom

The customers processing room needs to be redesigned... it's hot trash and clunky. Could be much more efficient with a redesign. Can't even fit a few hundred in there with bagagge claim taking up so much room. Redesign the baggage claim, put the arrival forms computers in a pass through on way to the customs officers.

Somehow that does not surprise me to hear..

[ATCZERO]

Originally Posted by masonh2479

I wonder when the airport will peak, during this peak growth it would be nice if construction was ongoing with a little more urgency. I wish the airport would post more regular construction updates like they used to as it would be nice to see how close gate 13 is to being finished. That is the nearest opportunity for the airport to relieve at least a little congestion. Also, how many stands are being build or are built for planes to sit for bus loading. A little more behind the scenes from the airport would be nice now that Austin1971 seems to have left unfortunately.

Another question, how much international capacity do we have left, I think we still have quite a bit for international expansion but I don't know, customs can handle 600 an hour I believe.

According to the December meeting notes, the additional 3 gates on the west side of the current terminal have a construction timeline of 2 years and one month. The second concourse is still 7 years out. Bus gates open this summer.

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by ATCZERO

According to the December meeting notes, the additional 3 gates on the west side of the current terminal have a construction timeline of 2 years and one month. The second concourse is still 7 years out. Bus gates open this summer.

2 years for three gates is bad but 7 years for the next concourse, that's horrible. Rest In Peace to the controllers and pilots doing the daily chess match because every gate is occupied and taxiways are full of waiting aircraft. 7 years for the new terminal to open for ABIA to still be over capacity

A user on a.net posted a nice document from the January 11th meeting. https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...2#document/p21

[lonewolf]

we'll hit 2m in july. looks like we may have an upcoming rough stretch starting as early as 2023 with this airport being at capacity

[danny1010]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Routes to Europe out of AUS:

SkyTeam = 2* (KLM & Virgin Atlantic)
oneworld = 1 (BA)
Star Alliance = 1 (Lufthansa)

*=Virgin Atlantic is not currently a member of SkyTeam. However, it is 49% owned by Delta. VS has JV agreements with Delta, KLM (and Air France). They have codeshare agreements with AeroMexico and WestJet (amongst a few others). They also have an interline partnership with Hawaiian Airlines (amongst a few others). I wouldn't be shocked to see Delta announce a few new domestic routes this year. Something may be in motion here...

I'd argue that OneWorld still has a significant lead in this if you consider that BA's flight is daily and on a larger plane than the other international options. I haven't done the math, but I would expect there to be close to as many available seats weekly on BA as the other trans-Atlantic flights combined.

It's clear that the airlines are seeing the importance of establishing a frequent flyer base in Austin as a driver for future business. In the Austin area, I would expect that OneWorld should have a pretty sizeable lead, especially adding Alaska and JetBlue frequent flyers to the mix with the reciprocal benefits they now share with the numbers that American and BA already bring to the table.

I think AA's big recent expansion is because they saw the writing on the wall that to keep/grow that stable of frequent flyers, you have to give people more non-stop flight options and frequencies if you want to keep them.

The longer that Delta waits to make a play for Austin, the harder I think it will be for them. Not impossible, but with the shortage of gates we have/will have soon, it's not like the other airlines will be very accommodating to vacate their spots to let Delta expand. It'll be harder to make the case that DL/SkyTeam offer a better value proposition than what AA/BA/OneWorld is already offering.

Austin will be a very very interesting battleground in the upcoming years for sure!

[masonh2479]

Interesting article about our baggage system. https://www.kvue.com/article/travel/...9-24e0f2e89370

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by danny1010

I'd argue that OneWorld still has a significant lead in this if you consider that BA's flight is daily and on a larger plane than the other international options. I haven't done the math, but I would expect there to be close to as many available seats weekly on BA as the other trans-Atlantic flights combined.

I can see your argument. But, significant...no. There is negligible difference in seating capacity between the A350-1000 (BA), B789 (KLM, Virgin Atlantic), and A333 (Lufthansa). Yes, BA is daily, but at some point Lufthansa will go back to being daily as well. KLM is testing the market at, I think 3x weekly. And, Virgin Atlantic is also testing the waters with 4x weekly. If things mature, both KLM & Virgin Atlantic will either increase frequency and/or upgrade equipment.

Think of it this way...AA doesn't know what's going to happen. However, they love Austin and have elected to bet all chips.

With regard to Delta, nobody has said anything about the possibility of them helping finance and take control of the gates in the forthcoming midfield concourse. Thus, the current lack of expansion news!?!

Delta's not going to drop all of it's "focus cities" except for Raleigh & Austin unless something was in-the-works.

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

I can see your argument. But, significant...no. There is negligible difference in seating capacity between the A350-1000 (BA), B789 (KLM, Virgin Atlantic), and A333 (Lufthansa). Yes, BA is daily, but at some point Lufthansa will go back to being daily as well. KLM is testing the market at, I think 3x weekly. And, Virgin Atlantic is also testing the waters with 4x weekly. If things mature, both KLM & Virgin Atlantic will either increase frequency and/or upgrade equipment.

Think of it this way...AA doesn't know what's going to happen. However, they love Austin and have elected to bet all chips.

With regard to Delta, nobody has said anything about the possibility of them helping finance and take control of the gates in the forthcoming midfield concourse. Thus, the current lack of expansion news!?!

Delta's not going to drop all of it's "focus cities" except for Raleigh & Austin unless something was in-the-works.

Things are progressing nicely with Delta's terminal at LGA so I would hope they are financing with ABIA to get them moving faster. Delta wants its terminals done asap.

[GoldenBoot]

It may end up being quite a while (if ever)...but, keep an eye on Oslo-based, LCC, Norse Atlantic Airways. They just received DOT approval to fly from Olso to Ft. Lauderdale, New York-Strewart, and Ontario, CA.

Future plans are to add U.S. destinations from London and Paris.