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Originally Posted by austlar1
Great list. That is a LOT of hotel rooms. At just 60% occupancy that would put an additional 8,000 or so folks overnight inside of that relatively small area in addition to local residents. Makes for a very busy central city. I do wonder how these rooms stay occupied day after day. Has convention and visitor traffic rebounded from the Covid crisis? Has business travel resumed on a large scale? Maybe someone knowledgeable about the local hotel market could provide some information.
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So -- business travel and group bookings are both currently in recovery. Things have been slowly but steadily improving up till omicron hit, which was a pretty profound rough patch. That said, it wasn't as rough as the delta rough patch, leading most of us to believe that business travelers and group attendees are at heart committed to traveling, and we really are still on an upward swing. Current projections put both group and BT as fully back to 2019 levels by mid 2024, but that's a very fluid forecast. If omicron ends up being the last major wave, we could see things really roar back much more quickly. The demand is definitely there. Of course if that's not the case and we do have another wave . . . hard to say what will happen to our momentum.
The convention center is a perennial problem for Austin, too. Not news to our forum, but it always has to be repeated in public so that people don't start listening that quack from San Antonio. We're so exceptionally small that we're about to fall out of the comp set of cities we regularly go up against, as all of them continue to renovate and outpace us -- again.
The renovation process is creeping along and last I heard, the hope was we'd have an RFP and approval to move forward from Council sometime this year. At this point, the CC folks are thinking in terms of SXSW increments -- if we can't start demo immediately after SXSW 2024, then we'll almost certainly wait till after SXSW 2025. The awful part is they estimate a 4 year construction process -- so even if 2024 is a go, we wouldn't have a center again until 2028. That's just . . .tragic. My hotel is doing revenue analyses about the potential impact of not having a Center for an extensive period of time and . . . it's not pretty.
That said, business is still booming, and tourists/leisure travelers are leading the way. At the most recent Austin Hotel and Lodging Assoc luncheon, one of the Visit Austin honchos made an interesting point -- turns out that even with our smaller center, the Visit Austin sales team was having a difficult time pulling together enough rooms to support convention center groups. All the big houses have enough in-house business and leisure compression that their participation is much lower than in the past.
To me this suggests that when the Center finally gets the green light to reboot (and nearly double in size!) we'll need even more rooms to support it. I'd expect another significant group hotel (Marriott Austin Downtown sized or bigger) to go along with it. Not as part of the deal, necessarily, but as a move into the market by another player.