Federal Government & Politics II

[lio45]

Huh, looks like Gen Z and Millennials don't react well to the LPC's Pet Scheme of Great Generational Inequity. Who'd have thunk?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

Huh, looks like Gen Z and Millennials don't react well to the LPC's Pet Scheme of Great Generational Inequity. Who'd have thunk?

They're smart kids. They can spot a pandering and desperate lame duck from miles away.

[1overcosc]

That Leger poll, modelled.

CPC - 240
LPC - 42
BQ - 35
NDP - 24
GPC - 2



The BQ as official opposition to a CPC supermajority might be possible if things don't turn around for JT.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Confirmation bias I am sure. If you like a large chunk of the electorate you voted for him in 2021 but not now I really find the logic hard to follow. With maybe exception of a surge in immigration nothing else has really changed in terms of policy.

The 2021 platform promised to “unlock home ownership for the middle class.” That promise was broken in a rather spectacular way.

The 2021 platform promised “better health care for everyone.” That promise was broken in a spectacular way.

The 2021 platform promised a deficit of 24B in 24-25, the most recent projection is 39 billion.

And as you note, the platform made no references to massive increases in immigration or international “students.”

[theman23]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The 2021 platform promised to “unlock home ownership for the middle class.” That promise was broken in a rather spectacular way.

The 2021 platform promised “better health care for everyone.” That promise was broken in a spectacular way.

The 2021 platform promised a deficit of 24B in 24-25, the most recent projection is 39 billion.

IIRC the 2021 was a Covid election, with the Liberals promising “going hard against COVID and going hard for vaccines” and stoking fears that we’d all die if Erin OToole and his “secretly alt right” pals formed government. Everything else was an after thought. That’s obviously not going to work this time around. It didn’t even work that well in 2021, since they never got the majority they had predicted.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by theman23

IIRC the 2021 was a Covid election, with the Liberals promising “going hard against COVID and going hard for vaccines” and stoking fears that we’d all die if the “secretly alt right” Erin OToole and pals formed government. Everything else was an after thought. That’s obviously not going to work this time around.

Exactly. Same thing happened in Quebec provincially: the CAQ got reelected in a landslide because of the pandemic, and now that we're back to a normal context and we finally get to see them govern a society that isn't on strict lockdowns and curfews, we don't like what we're seeing.

"But they were super popular not long ago, and now they're extremely unpopular" is only strange superficially: when you add the pandemic to the analysis, it becomes very logical.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by theman23

IIRC the 2021 was a Covid election, with the Liberals promising “going hard against COVID and going hard for vaccines” and stoking fears that we’d all die if the “secretly alt right” Erin OToole and pals formed government. Everything else was an after thought. That’s obviously not going to work this time around.

This time the plan will be to claim that Conservatives are all neo-con Trumpian fascists with women's rights, including to abortion to be sacrificed, as well as limitations to free speech and the decimation of the health care system. JT and the boys will pull out all stops.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

That Leger poll, modelled.

CPC - 240
LPC - 42
BQ - 35
NDP - 24
GPC - 2



The BQ as official opposition to a CPC supermajority might be possible if things don't turn around for JT.

CPC supermajority + BQ as Official Opposition would be a fitting legacy for JT

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

CPC supermajority + BQ as Official Opposition would be a fitting legacy for JT

If you're gonna throw the bum out, you might as well do it with style!

I wonder when the knives will be sharpened in the Liberal back rooms? This is getting to a crisis point for them. If the Libbies drop to the 40 seat range, the crisis could become existential for the party.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This time the plan will be to claim that Conservatives are all neo-con Trumpian fascists with women's rights, including to abortion to be sacrificed, as well as limitations to free speech and the decimation of the health care system. JT and the boys will pull out all stops.

Maybe, but that would be silly and self-defeating. PP is far too populist for my tastes (besides, what has he done except be a MP for his entire life, and blame everything on Trudeau), but I suspect very few people will believe the lie that "all Conservatives are neo-con Trumpian fascists". Only some of them are neo-con Trumpian fascists.



Montreal still holding out for Trudoh? Surrounded by the 'enemy' (the showercap party).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

If you're gonna throw the bum out, you might as well do it with style!

I wonder when the knives will be sharpened in the Liberal back rooms? This is getting to a crisis point for them. If the Libbies drop to the 40 seat range, the crisis could become existential for the party.

Problem is 25 of those seats are because of Trudeau in Quebec. All the likely successors lose them many of those and really what do they add?

Official opposition even with a Con super majority probably lets them survive. There doesn't seem to be an NDP leader on the horizon who could wipe them out. Maybe Wab Kinew? Walking away after one term seems risky though.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Montreal still holding out for Trudoh? Surrounded by the 'enemy' (the showercap party).

And both Moncton and Beausejour are showing up for Team Red too (as well as the north shore Acadian ridings).

Things haven't changed in Acadie - you can run a doorknob as the Liberal candidate in 3-4 predominantly francophone NB seats and be assured of a lopsided victory.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Official opposition even with a Con super majority probably lets them survive. There doesn't seem to be an NDP leader on the horizon who could wipe them out. Maybe Wab Kinew? Walking away after one term seems risky though.

Yes, Wab could be a serious threat to them. The stars could be aligning for the complete and permanent demise of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Wouldn't that be a wonderful legacy for JT - to destroy your own party...........

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

He tried to negotiate with the Speaker, when the Speaker's word goes. That is why he got turfed. Since he must be at least somewhat familiar with parliamentary procedure, I'm guessing that this is what he wanted.

Exactly. He had confirmation that his replacement statement was unacceptable, then he did it anyway. The results were virtually automatic.

[GeneralLeeTPHLS]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Yes, Wab could be a serious threat to them. The stars could be aligning for the complete and permanent demise of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Wouldn't that be a wonderful legacy for JT - to destroy your own party...........

That would be a great way to send off the 2nd generation of Trudeau leadership.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

If you're gonna throw the bum out, you might as well do it with style!

I wonder when the knives will be sharpened in the Liberal back rooms? This is getting to a crisis point for them. If the Libbies drop to the 40 seat range, the crisis could become existential for the party.

I guess the questions that arise would be whether any other leader could get a better result and, if not, why anyone would want the job now rather than rebuilding after the election.

[O-tacular]

Peepee (or whoever does his social media) sent me a FB friend request after I left a comment questioning one of his announcements. I guess he truly doesn’t care if you hate him so long as it adds to his ‘friends’ count.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Peepee (or whoever does his social media) sent me a FB friend request after I left a comment questioning one of his announcements. I guess he truly doesn’t care if you hate him so long as it adds to his ‘friends’ count.

He runs a "big tent party"

[O-tacular]

The Take Back Alberta Freedumb Convoyers are now turning on the UCP over fire bans during wildfire season. Apparently it’s the samez as the fake china virus mask mandates.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Montreal still holding out for Trudoh? Surrounded by the 'enemy' (the showercap party).

In that map, over half of the rump Liberal caucus is in the Montreal CMA!