City Murder Rates

[Via Chicago]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Less black people. Black people, young black men, kill and are killed the most in america in proportion to their pops.

Trying to catch someone being racist huh? Stats aren't racist.

The way you choose to interpret them certainly can be.

Correlation does not imply causation. Speaking of stats, thats from the first day of the 101 course. You might want to dig deep, perhaps with the assistance of a professional therapist, and decode why you believe a person of one skin color is more inherently violent than a person of another. You may also want to consider the history of racism and oppression in the western world, who the target of that racism has been directed against and by whom it was perpetrated by, and perhaps consider the possibility that it is still alive and well in today's world.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Acajack

"Favourable demographics" aren't necessarily about black people. It's also about having fewer extremely poor, desperate people due to a smaller gap between rich and poor, and the existence of a wider, more generous social safety net.

In the U.S. homicides are heavily correlated with % black, and not at all correlated with wealth gaps, % poor or relative safety net.

Wealth gaps are greatest in coastal metros and the like, which tend to have lower-than-average homicide rates (places like NYC, SF and LA). % poor are greatest in the American Southwest, which tends to have lower-than-average homicide rates. Relative safety net varies heavily by state/jurisdiction but I don't think there's any plausible correlation with homicide rate.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Have you ever been to Toronto or at least seen what the *absolute worst* parts of the city look like?

I would be very surprised if the social safety net in Toronto were more robust than in NYC, which has mandated housing on demand, around 65% of housing units are either rent controlled or income restricted, and no time limits on welfare. The city university system is essentially free for most, the public housing and public hospital/health systems are enormous, etc.

In any case, NYC had a robust social safety net when there were thousands of murders, so I doubt it has anything to do with homicide rates.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by The North One

Because black people have been systematically oppressed and disadvantaged by America's racist culture. These "stats" aren't their fault. There is nothing inherently less violent about white people.

You're an excuse maker. Black crime rates were lower pre 1960. Blacks were raised by two parents 75% of the time in 1960, today that number is around 25%. So no, race has nothing to do with it. A liberal culture does. If you control for single parents, black and white crime rates almost mirror each other.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Via Chicago

The way you choose to interpret them certainly can be.

Correlation does not imply causation. Speaking of stats, thats from the first day of the 101 course. You might want to dig deep, perhaps with the assistance of a professional therapist, and decode why you believe a person of one skin color is more inherently violent than a person of another. You may also want to consider the history of racism and oppression in the western world, who the target of that racism has been directed against and by whom it was perpetrated by, and perhaps consider the possibility that it is still alive and well in today's world.

You liberals are so offended by just hearing things you don't like. Read my last post. Race has nothing to do with it. It just so happens that blacks became victims of liberalism more than whites. Prove me wrong, if you control for single parenthood, white and black crime rates are almost the same.

Look it up before you claim I need to see a therapist. You may need to get out your bubble and hear opossing views.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Crawford

In the U.S. homicides are heavily correlated with % black, and not at all correlated with wealth gaps, % poor or relative safety net.

Wealth gaps are greatest in coastal metros and the like, which tend to have lower-than-average homicide rates (places like NYC, SF and LA). % poor are greatest in the American Southwest, which tends to have lower-than-average homicide rates. Relative safety net varies heavily by state/jurisdiction but I don't think there's any plausible correlation with homicide rate.

So middle class, affluent blacks kill each other more often than poor redneck whites, just because they're black? Really?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I would be very surprised if the social safety net in Toronto were more robust than in NYC, which has mandated housing on demand, around 65% of housing units are either rent controlled or income restricted, and no time limits on welfare. The city university system is essentially free for most, the public housing and public hospital/health systems are enormous, etc.

In any case, NYC had a robust social safety net when there were thousands of murders, so I doubt it has anything to do with homicide rates.

Same question, though: do you know what the "worst" residential sections of Toronto look and feel like and can you compare them to the "worst" residential sections of NYC?

[prelude91]

Originally Posted by Acajack

So middle class, affluent blacks kill each other more often than poor redneck whites, just because they're black? Really?

That's likely not true, but that is not how a read the post. Poor Blacks are significantly more likely to kill than poor whites for a number of reasons; and Blacks are much more likely to be poor; so it is reasonable to assume, especially in inner cities, where there are less "well off" Blacks, that black neighborhoods are significantly more likely to have high murder rates.

This is absolutely the case in Chicago, where I live.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Acajack

So middle class, affluent blacks kill each other more often than poor redneck whites, just because they're black? Really?

Possibly, I don't know. My wild guess is no. But I'm not arguing causation, I'm arguing correlation.

Causation is a very messy topic, and more social science, but correlation is just a statistical measure. Very difficult to argue correlation. If you want to rank U.S. metros by homicide rate, you can almost just use the rank of metros by % African American. Not exactly, but pretty damn close. Start with Memphis (highest % black by MSA and highest homicide rate by MSA) and go down the list.

This is NOT a "blame the blacks" argument, BTW. They are the victims in all this, and I think much of it is linked to historical inequities and white oppression. And obviously only a tiny % of the community is involved in violence.

But when you look at differences in homicide rates between Canada and U.S., the two biggest differences, to me, are 1. African American population and 2. Guns everywhere. I think those two factors explain almost the entire difference. If Memphis had Montreal's policing, social welfare policies and race relations, I doubt it would make any difference.

[mrnyc]

nyc

through 9/25/16

2016 murders = 252
2015 murders = 266
% change = -5.3%

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by The North One

Because black people have been systematically oppressed and disadvantaged by America's racist culture. These "stats" aren't their fault. There is nothing inherently less violent about white people.

Originally Posted by jtown,man

You're an excuse maker. Black crime rates were lower pre 1960. Blacks were raised by two parents 75% of the time in 1960, today that number is around 25%. So no, race has nothing to do with it. A liberal culture does. If you control for single parents, black and white crime rates almost mirror each other.

ignorant kneejerk america bashing and rhetoric aside, this is exactly one of the biggest problems. kids don't need a street family when they have an intact family. short of getting guns off the street one easy step the federal government can take to help change this issue is to eliminate the marriage tax penalty. the gov basically hates intact families because it charges you more $ to be married than single. politicians talk about this once in awhile, but never do anything about it. taxes can be adjusted to promote intact, married families in a multitude of ways. it's low hanging fruit that can be done and would help.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by prelude91

That's likely not true, but that is not how a read the post. Poor Blacks are significantly more likely to kill than poor whites for a number of reasons; and Blacks are much more likely to be poor; so it is reasonable to assume, especially in inner cities, where there are less "well off" Blacks, that black neighborhoods are significantly more likely to have high murder rates.

This is absolutely the case in Chicago, where I live.

I think this has a lot to do with settlement patterns. Most poor whites are more rural, therefore you don't have issues with gangs and the like.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Possibly, I don't know. My wild guess is no. But I'm not arguing causation, I'm arguing correlation.

Causation is a very messy topic, and more social science, but correlation is just a statistical measure. Very difficult to argue correlation. If you want to rank U.S. metros by homicide rate, you can almost just use the rank of metros by % African American. Not exactly, but pretty damn close. Start with Memphis (highest % black by MSA and highest homicide rate by MSA) and go down the list.

This is NOT a "blame the blacks" argument, BTW. They are the victims in all this, and I think much of it is linked to historical inequities and white oppression. And obviously only a tiny % of the community is involved in violence.

But when you look at differences in homicide rates between Canada and U.S., the two biggest differences, to me, are 1. African American population and 2. Guns everywhere. I think those two factors explain almost the entire difference. If Memphis had Montreal's policing, social welfare policies and race relations, I doubt it would make any difference.

Here is some info I found from the United States Bureau of Justice Statistics:

[I]For the period 2008–12— Persons in poor households at or below the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) (39.8 per 1,000) had more than double the rate of violent victimization as persons in high-income households (16.9 per 1,000). Persons in poor households had a higher rate of violence involving a firearm (3.5 per 1,000) compared to persons above the FPL (0.8–2.5 per 1,000). The overall pattern of poor persons having the highest rates of violent victimization was consistent for both whites and blacks. However, the rate of violent victimization for Hispanics did not vary across poverty levels. Poor Hispanics (25.3 per 1,000) had lower rates of violence compared to poor whites (46.4 per 1,000) and poor blacks (43.4 per 1,000). Poor persons living in urban areas (43.9 per 1,000) had violent victimization rates similar to poor persons living in rural areas (38.8 per 1,000). Poor urban blacks (51.3 per 1,000) had rates of violence similar to poor urban whites (56.4 per 1,000).[/I]

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Here is some info I found from the United States Bureau of Justice Statistics:

I don't doubt any of this, but we aren't talking "rates of violence", we're talking homicide rates.

The U.S. isn't a particularly high crime nation, it's a high homicide rate nation. Crime rates in most U.S. cites are comparable to those of most Western first world cities. But murder rates are crazy high compared to foreign equivalents.

[Tosin007]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

You're an excuse maker. Black crime rates were lower pre 1960. Blacks were raised by two parents 75% of the time in 1960, today that number is around 25%. So no, race has nothing to do with it. A liberal culture does. If you control for single parents, black and white crime rates almost mirror each other.

Well said! Its sad that many people still don't know/ see it that way.

[Tosin007]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

The murder rate for black Americans (really, young black males) is rising. for anyone outside this group, it's basically unchanged.

And there are exceptions in Canada. Edmonton's murder rate at 3.81/100k remains 35% higher than New York City per capita (2.8/100k). Toronto's is 50% lower than NYC ytd (2.8 vs 1.8/100k), but with MUCH more favorable demographics.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...en-us-city.pdf

Toronto is more than 50% Lower than NYC's rates. Now I'm not saying NYC is a dangerous City (Cause I don't think it is & I happen to not really dislike that City). But Toronto's Population is much closer to 2.9 Million by now, so its Rates @ 52 Homicides YTD is much closer to 1.8 Per 100,000. Why?
Population Growth! Ontario is near 14 Million in Population already by now.
(The Latest from Statistics Canada).
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&id=510005
Ontario: 13,982,984 (July 1st, 2016).
Doing the Math/ Factoring in Population Growth the GTA is Roughly around 48-49% of the Population of the whole Province of Ontario, & Roughly 42% of the Metro Residents general reside within the City Limits as opposed to Toronto Suburbs. (@ least its been that way since the 2011 Census). So if that remains the same then the Inner City is much closer to 2.9 Million than it is now to 2.8 Million, (Likely 2.87 or 2.88) So when rounding the Murder Stats are probably about 1.8 Per 100,000.

[Tosin007]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/britis...sion-1.3786158

^Vancouver BC is now @ 8 After the Body of a Missing
Japanese Student was found. RIP (She'd been missing for a couple
weeks too).

[The North One]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

You're an excuse maker. Black crime rates were lower pre 1960. Blacks were raised by two parents 75% of the time in 1960, today that number is around 25%. So no, race has nothing to do with it. A liberal culture does. If you control for single parents, black and white crime rates almost mirror each other.

And you're a denier of the obvious symptoms of a racist society. You're exactly the problem.

Your scenario doesn't even disprove what I was saying in the slightest, skin color does not make anyone more violent or more inclined to commit crimes, socioeconomic status does and lower class people are more likely to have broken homes. There was much easier access to jobs without an education in 1960 than 2016. Or is it that you think Blacks aren't staying in nuclear families just for the hell of it?

A liberal culture does.

Those damn hippy libtards! They be making them blacks more violent! Why won't anybody ever just think of the white men of America!?

[toddguy]

Columbus is at 71, which is a bit less than it was last year at this time.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stor...-shooting.html

Columbus population estimate 2015: 850,106

[KevinFromTexas]

Del Valle is getting kind of scary (er). This happened less than a mile from where four were found dead (also ruled a homicide) inside of a burned house.

2 dead - Two found dead in Del Valle identified; deaths ruled homicides - 9/27

2016 Austin Murders

| Austin 24 | Travis Co. 30 | Bastrop Co. 6 | Caldwell Co. 1 | Hays Co. 5 | Williamson Co. 0 | Metro 42 |

Metro totals:
Shooting - 26
Stabbing - 2
Strangled - 2
Suffocation - 0
Throwing (of child) - 0
Beating - 0
Vehicular - 0
Blunt force trauma - 2
Unlisted cause + 1 (6/27), + 1 (7/16) , + 1 (7/21), + 1 (8/1), + 1 (8/11), +1 (9/8) + 2 (9/27)

Austin totals:
Downtown - 1
Central Austin - 1
East Austin - 10
North Austin - 8
Northeast Austin - 0
Northwest Austin - 2
South Austin - 0
Southeast Austin - 2
Southwest Austin - 0
West Austin - 0

Victims
Male - 25
Female - 11
Unlisted - + 1 (7/23), + 4 (9/8)

| Jan 1 | Feb 1 | Mar 1 | Apr 3 | May 4 | Jun 6 | Jul 9 | Aug 6 | Sep 11 | Oct 0 | Nov 0 | Dec 0 |

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| Mon 7 | Tue 6 | Wed 1 | Thur 7 | Fri 7 | Sat 9 | Sun 5 |

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Murder cases

1 dead - Police seeking gunman after fatal shooting overnight in North Austin - 1/22

1 dead - San Marcos police charge roommate in shooting death of 20-year-old - 2/5

1 dead - Fatal car accident in East Austin investigated as homicide - 3/1

1 dead - Police identify 18-year-old killed in Kyle drive-by shooting - 4/2

1 dead - UT police investigating death of woman found on campus as homicide - 4/5

1 dead - Suspect named in killing of 'Junior the Wendy’s Guy’ - 4/11

1 dead - Officials: One dead, 3 injured in North Austin shooting - 5/8

1 dead - Police seeking murder suspect after deadly North Austin shooting - 5/14

1 dead - Police: Fatal shooting at H-E-B was during drug deal gone wrong - 5/20

1 dead - Ex-roommate charged in Del Valle homicide arrested, authorities say - 5/31

1 dead - Man faces murder charge after body found in Northeast Austin on Sunday - 6/5

1 dead - Police: Bastrop County woman in crashed car killed by gunshot - 6/9

1 dead - Police identify woman shot, killed in East Austin - 6/13

1 dead - Wimberley man accused of shooting, killing his father - 6/14

1 dead - Police investigating homicide in North Austin - 6/25

1 dead - Police: Homicide victim at East Austin burglary call was 14 years old - 6/27                                           

1 dead - Teen dies after being stabbed in Southeast Austin, police say - 7/1

1 dead - Police ID man found dead near Gus Garcia school property Saturday - 7/16

1 dead - Police: Man dies in 3rd reported Austin homicide since Saturday - 7/18

1 dead - Austin police investigating homicide at East Austin apartment complex - 7/18

1 dead - Police: Body found near airport last week was homicide victim - 7/21

3 dead - Police: Man, 2 women, 1 child shot to death at Bastrop apartments - 7/23

1 dead - Murder warrant issued for suspect in fatal downtown Austin shooting - 7/31

1 dead - Hays Co. deputies find body of missing Buda woman - 8/1

1 dead - Woman dead, 3 others injured after North Austin shooting, police say - 8/8

1 dead - Woman’s body found in field west of Lockhart, authorities say - 8/11

1 dead - Police seeking shooter after 1 killed, 1 wounded in East Austin - 8/11

1 dead - Witness describes East Austin shooting that left one man dead - 8/14

1 dead - Man fatally shoots friend inside moving car, friends say - 8/21

4 dead - Deaths of 4 in Del Valle being investigated as a homicide - 9/8

2 dead - Police investigating two bodies found in Northwest Austin field - 9/8

2 dead - Murder-suicide suspected in deaths of three in Bastrop County - 9/10

1 dead - Kyle police identify man killed in Wednesday shooting - 9/14

2 dead - Two found dead in Del Valle identified; deaths ruled homicides - 9/27

Pending cases

Body recovered from Lady Bird Lake - 2/1

Police investigating suspicious death in Northwest Austin - 4/8

Authorities: Body found in Bastrop County may be result of homicide - 5/13

Man’s body found in Brushy Creek, Round Rock police say - 5/26

Austin area population

City: 912,791 (July 1, 2014 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau
Metro: 2,000,860 (July 1, 2015 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau
Travis County: 1,176,558 (2015 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau

Area - City: 297 square miles (2010) - US Census Bureau
Area - Metro: 4,285 square miles - Wikipedia
Area - Travis County: 1,023 square miles - Wikipedia

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Previous years
2015 - 19
2014 - 31
2013 - 25
2012 - 32
2011 - 28
2010 - 31
2009 - 23
2008 - 24
2007 - 30
2006 - 20
2005 - 26

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9/27/2016 - | Austin 24 | Travis Co. 30 | Bastrop Co. 6 | Caldwell Co. 1 | Hays Co. 5 | Williamson Co. 1 | Metro 42 |

9/27/2015 - | Austin 12 | Travis Co. 16 | Bastrop Co. 3 | Caldwell Co. 0 | Hays Co. 4 | Williamson Co. 7 | Metro 30 |