Chicago - Mayoral Race - Rahm Emanuel Wins

[VivaLFuego]

Originally Posted by ardecila

I too think there will be a runoff. The question is whether Braun and del Valle's voters will go to Rahm or Chico. If Rahm is at 46% in the general, then he should have no problem getting another 4% of the electorate, unless Braun and del Valle's voters are DEAD SET against Rahm - and he's not that divisive in the city. No single group, with the exception of union workers, has a valid reason to dislike him.

Don't forget, some of the polling is probably not weighted correctly to account for likely, registered voters. The ethnic group that's weakest for Rahm and strongest for Chico, Hispanics, are a much smaller share of the electorate than they are of the population. If Rahm is polling in the mid-40s for the entire city population, he's a near shoe-in to get over 50%. If it's close (and I think it will be), it'll just come down to who can turn out their bases to the polls.

Originally Posted by Chicago103

As far as crime I also think Gery is right, if we just move our budget around 2-3% we can get 2,000 more police officers on the street

I would love love love to see some support for this --- 2,000 more cops on the street would be a whole heck of a lot more than 2-3% of the budget getting moved around, considering there's already an impending ~$500 million annual hole just to cover the accruing pension liabilities for the existing shrinking police force. Hiring 2,000 more cops with all associated costs would be, easily, in the hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Where would that come from?

I usually am not the type to beat the drum about Chicago having corrupt politics but I seriously would lose faith in the intelligence of the average Chicago voter if there is not a runoff.

That seems harsh, no? --- isn't it possible that 50% of the electorate could decide they've seen enough, and there's really only one person out of the available choices they'd like to see?

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Chicago103

As far as Chico's comment that Steely Dan mentioned yes I agree that it was over the top and unnecessary and without that one sentence he would have made his point just fine. That's now how I would have worded things if I was running for mayor of Chicago but at the same time it's not a deal maker for me and let me explain why. The reason that I was a Chico supporter early on is because of his views on education, business, jobs, taxes and city bureaucracy, and policing issues. Those issues of his have not changed from early on as was shown in this debate. What Chico addressed in the segments on jobs, education, crime (sans the Rahm attack) are spot on to what I believe in.

that's all fine and dandy that you're willing to turn a blind eye to chico's shameful provincialism, but i can't let it slide. gery chico thinks that i could never be qualified to be mayor of chicago merely because i happened to grow up in the place that my parents decided to raise their family. well, you know what, i think gery chicao could never be qualified to be mayor of chicago because he's too much of a myopic, tribal homer. this notion that someone needs to spend every waking and sleeping hour of their entire life within the confines of the city of chicago's 228 sq. miles in order to be qualified to be mayor of the people of chicago is asinine. just plain old asinine.

it's all moot anyway because, barring some unforeseen political earthquake in the next 10 days, rahm will win outright with over 50% on the 22nd.

[Chicago103]

Why are people so confident that there will not be a runoff? I guess you can't completely discount that possibility but given that not all polls show he is at 50%, especially the internal polls even from Rahm's camp say that he has 40-45%. Is there also anyone else who believes this city needs a runoff regardless of who you may currently support?

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Chicago103

Why are people so confident that there will not be a runoff?

undecided voters. the two most recent independent polls (tribune/WGN and ABC7) had rahm at 49% and 54%, respectively. considering that around 12-15% of the electorate is still undecided, rahm only needs a small proportion of those voters to break for him in order to solidly put him over 50%. also, if a good chunk of those undecided voters are fairly dispassionate and simply stay home on election day, that will also boost rahm over 50% as well.

Originally Posted by Chicago103

Is there also anyone else who believes this city needs a runoff regardless of who you may currently support?

i'm sure there are many other people who would like to see a run-off, namely anyone who doesn't support emanuel. but i don't think that having a run-off for the sake of having a run-off is all that important. if over 50% of chicagoans want rahm to be mayor in the first go round, then a run-off is a waste of time and money. if rahm should fall short of 50% and there is a run-off, then so be it, but i don't see it as something that needs to happen.

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by VivaLFuego

That seems harsh, no? --- isn't it possible that 50% of the electorate could decide they've seen enough, and there's really only one person out of the available choices they'd like to see?

I have no doubt that there are a number of informed Rahm supporters who genuinely feel that way however I do not believe it is 50% of the electorate. I don't believe that the amount of truly informed voters in Rahm's camp is that much greater than those for Chico or the others. Rahm has informed voters yes but also the biggest flock of sheep behind them because of his name recognition and saturation by his campaign. Of course you can pick out ignorant people probably supporting each of the candidates for petty reasons but because the others are not as well know one has to be somewhat more informed to know about them in the first place.

[Nowhereman1280]

I think a good number of the Rahm supporters in this thread certainly seem to feel that way...


The one trend all of these polls are showing that I love is CMB's race-baiting sending her off a cliff. I love that not only has she lost support among African Americans, they are jumping ship in droves. Its an excellent sign for the health of the community of Chicago that people are now to the point where they can see past race-baiting and to the point of an election which is deciding who is most qualified to run based on their plans and accomplishments, not on the color of their skin.

Originally Posted by ametz

http://www.economist.com/node/172489...48984&fsrc=rss

This isn't the article I was thinking of (the article I had in mind was generally about how American politicians are startlingly unwilling to have honest conversations with the electorate about difficult problems, and it focused specifically on the pension problem)....but, this article specifically focuses on the pension obligations and is certainly a good read for the layperson. It makes note of something we should keep in mind: hard core pension reform can potentially clobber low paid employees who aren't gaming the system.

Thanks, I was just wondering what you were talking about.

[lawfin]

Originally Posted by Nowhereman1280

I think a good number of the Rahm supporters in this thread certainly seem to feel that way...


The one trend all of these polls are showing that I love is CMB's race-baiting sending her off a cliff. I love that not only has she lost support among African Americans, they are jumping ship in droves. Its an excellent sign for the health of the community of Chicago that people are now to the point where they can see past race-baiting and to the point of an election which is deciding who is most qualified to run based on their plans and accomplishments, not on the color of their skin.




Thanks, I was just wondering what you were talking about.

^^^I agree and think you have said it well;

and CMB is a twit

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by Nowhereman1280

I think a good number of the Rahm supporters in this thread certainly seem to feel that way...

I would never call the Rahm supporters on here uninformed. You have to realize though that we on SSP are not normal, we are much more informed than the general public. Here on SSP we talk about the ignorance of the voters all the time and even Chicago is not immune from that phenomenon and people can vote for a candidate you like for the wrong reasons. Its just that when I see the "vote for Rahm during your lunch break" online all over the place the image that comes to mind is of recent transplants to the city who probably voted for Obama and know very few basic things about Chicago politics but pretty much just go to the ballot box, punch Rahm because it is cool and then subsequently return to listening to Lady Gaga on their IPod's. Why else push early voting that much? Sure it may be a winning strategy but its almost like they feel if they don't get people now they might be too clueless to know February 22nd is the election day. Anyone posting in this thread would not fit in that category regardless of how short or long your time in Chicago has been but I am referring to people who aren't as interested in politics as we are outside of the soundbites.

[the urban politician]

Emanuel wants to bring college kids here to sell them on city
BY FRAN SPIELMAN City Hall Reporter
Feb 11, 2011 08:11PM

Like a football coach luring blue-chip players, mayoral candidate Rahm Emanuel said Friday he would host college juniors and seniors from across the Midwest for a special weekend in Chicago to convince them to start their careers and businesses here.

Emanuel described the job of recruiter — and salesman-in-chief — as an “evolution to the job” of Chicago mayor.

No longer can the city’s chief executive sit back and hope that Chicago’s beauty, cultural and ethnic diversity and rich night life will be enough to attract a talented, and technologically-savvy workforce.

The mayor has to go out and visit campuses and recruit that talent — like a coach who travels the country and hosts weekend campus visits.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/electio...m-on-city.html

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Emanuel wants to bring college kids here to sell them on city
BY FRAN SPIELMAN City Hall Reporter
Feb 11, 2011 08:11PM

Like a football coach luring blue-chip players, mayoral candidate Rahm Emanuel said Friday he would host college juniors and seniors from across the Midwest for a special weekend in Chicago to convince them to start their careers and businesses here.

Emanuel described the job of recruiter — and salesman-in-chief — as an “evolution to the job” of Chicago mayor.

No longer can the city’s chief executive sit back and hope that Chicago’s beauty, cultural and ethnic diversity and rich night life will be enough to attract a talented, and technologically-savvy workforce.

The mayor has to go out and visit campuses and recruit that talent — like a coach who travels the country and hosts weekend campus visits.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/electio...m-on-city.html

I do like this idea, in fact its something I would probably want to do myself. It does sound similar though to what Gery Chico has been saying for awhile about him wanting to go out there and "sell Chicago, sell Chicago, sell Chicago" but more in relation to trying to attract companies and industry to the city as opposed to young college graduates specifically. A big part of a mayor should be selling the city to people, its something I try to do on pages like city-data.com. Honestly though this is part of what I am talking about with Rahm vs. Chico. I actually listened to interviews on the radio months ago, I mean like before the holidays even where Gery Chico was saying how he was going to be a big promoter of the city with initiatives like this but unless you were listening to the radio at that time you wouldn't know. When Rahm says something similar months later the media is on it in a split second.

[Steely Dan]

more provincial (and hypocritical) stupidity from chico. sounds like he's gonna try and ride this tribal wave all the way to election day. desperate times, i suppose.



Chico, Braun change tactics in bid to stop Emanuel
Front-runner's North Shore upbringing, standing with Black Caucus highlighted

<snip>

The central argument of Chico's endgame is to convince voters Emanuel can't relate to struggling Chicago families because he was raised on the North Shore.

"I don't mean to take away from anyone's upbringing. I really don't. But Rahm Emanuel's is very, very different, and we're going to continue to focus and focus and focus on that," Chico said. "I think I have a real feel for what goes on in the households of this city and the anxiety that people go through to try to pay the bills."

It's somewhat of a difficult needle to thread. Chico grew up in the Back of the Yards neighborhood, but he's now a wealthy lawyer with no shortage of political connections. Chico's recent tax returns show he has made $2 million to $3 million a year running a small law firm that specializes in representing companies doing business with City Hall. Chico also owns two vacation homes, including a $2.4 million house in Scottsdale, Ariz.


full article: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/e...0,576037.story

[Alliance]

^^^ Its been really disappointing. I was hoping Chico would be the guy.

[Thundertubs]

Originally Posted by Alliance

^^^ Its been really disappointing. I was hoping Chico would be the guy.

Agreed. I liked him at first, but it's sad to see a middle-aged man going on about where he and his rival went to high school.

[Alliance]

Originally Posted by Thundertubs

Agreed. I liked him at first, but it's sad to see a middle-aged man going on about where he and his rival went to high school.

Well, lol, I have no love to New Trier either, but I'm far more concerned about potential North-Side Centrism than high school elitism.

[SamInTheLoop]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

more provincial (and hypocritical) stupidity from chico. sounds like he's gonna try and ride this tribal wave all the way to election day. desperate times, i suppose.



Chico, Braun change tactics in bid to stop Emanuel
Front-runner's North Shore upbringing, standing with Black Caucus highlighted

<snip>

The central argument of Chico's endgame is to convince voters Emanuel can't relate to struggling Chicago families because he was raised on the North Shore.

"I don't mean to take away from anyone's upbringing. I really don't. But Rahm Emanuel's is very, very different, and we're going to continue to focus and focus and focus on that," Chico said. "I think I have a real feel for what goes on in the households of this city and the anxiety that people go through to try to pay the bills."

It's somewhat of a difficult needle to thread. Chico grew up in the Back of the Yards neighborhood, but he's now a wealthy lawyer with no shortage of political connections. Chico's recent tax returns show he has made $2 million to $3 million a year running a small law firm that specializes in representing companies doing business with City Hall. Chico also owns two vacation homes, including a $2.4 million house in Scottsdale, Ariz.


full article: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/e...0,576037.story

I'm wondering how ugly things are going to get this week.......Chico is really starting to reek of desperation and (perhaps after a huddle-up with his daddy Burke), he may leap completely off the reservation at the bitter (for him) end. Meanwhile, on the racial side of things, I cringe at the potential ugliness that Braun is capable of - she's already proven to be a loose cannon, and with her 'base' abandoning her in droves, I would say "watch out"...

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by Alliance

Well, lol, I have no love to New Trier either, but I'm far more concerned about potential North-Side Centrism than high school elitism.

That's more the issue for me as well, where someone went to high school or where they were raised is just a trivia question for me, I certainly don't define people based on where they went to high school, I guess in large part because where I went to high school means nothing to my present day life, I am about as far removed as possible from my high school, I haven't set foot within 100 miles of there in nearly seven years. I do however think its legit to bring up does Rahm really represent people outside of the north side of the city. I don't agree with north shore bashing but maybe its because I am not from there that I am not personally offended even if I understand why other people are, I guess I am just pragmatic about it in that this is a case where my enemy's enemy is my friend. I am not against the north side at all but the reality is that like downtown many of the northside lakefront neighborhoods are already in good shape, that's Emmanuel's home turf, I just am not sure if he really knows the whole city really well outside of his old congressional district, he may give lip service to lots of areas but I am not convinced beyond that. If the issue is about neighborhoods as opposed to what high school someone went to I think it is a fair argument to make. To me Rahm is a Chicagoan without a doubt but is he one of these types that pretty much sees Chicago as just the popular parts of the north side. Daley was from Bridgeport but its pretty clear that he knows and loves this entire city. Chico has held appointed offices where he had to work with every corner of this city, Miguel Del Valle as the city clerk holds city wide office, Carol Moseley Braun (as much as I dislike her) represented everyone in the entire state of Illinois for six years. Rahm Emmanuel is the only major candidate that has not held an office representing the entire city (unless being Obama's chief of staff counts as representing the whole US), I am not saying tha should be a make or break issue and I know Harold Washington was a congressman before he became mayor of the entire city and was pretty good as mayor but I think it does say something when you have only represented the most prosperous congressional district in the city. At the end of the day though its not even about that but just the arrogance he has shown towards intellegent voters in this city in not attending forums or giving media interviews and running a celebrity style campaign.

I don't know what you people thought of Alexi Gianoulias when he ran for senate but he made fun of the north shore as well essentially saying that Mark Kirk does not represent Illinois simply because he was the north shore congressman who represented the sheltered wealthy and Alexi represented the real people in the city and other less wealthy parts of the state. In several of his TV ads he mentioned the north shore specifically and mentioned it on the stump alot. In fact I would dare say that Gianoulias was worse than Chico is in bashing the north shore. As a trivia aside both Mark Kirk and Rahm Emanuel are class of 1977 New Trier graduates. That rhetoric didn't work for me because I actually voted for Mark Kirk even though I am a Democrat, so I don't hate the north shore in fact its my favorite suburban Chicagoland region. My point is how many of you who voted for Gianoulias and didn't hold the north shore statements against him and looked the other way are now attacking Chico for saying essentially the same things?

We need someone who sees that south of Madison is just as much a part of Chicago's future as north of it. In fact if we want this city to someday surpass it's 1950 population apex of 3.62 million we need someone to see that, we will find out this coming week aparently how well Chicago fared for the 2010 census. This is why I feel a runoff is absouletely necessary for the future of this city regardless of who ultimatly becomes mayor and whoever that is will be a better mayor because of it. I am perfectly content with the people who vote for the four non Emanuel-Chico candidates deciding who becomes out mayor in a runoff, in that case Rahm (or Chico) will have proven himself in my eyes. Its not even about wanting a runoff because of liking Chico or anyone, its just wanting a runoff for the sake of a runoff because I love this city and I know it needs it badly.

[urbanpln]

Originally Posted by Chicago103

That's more the issue for me as well, where someone went to high school or where they were raised is just a trivia question for me. I do however think its legit to bring up does Rahm really represent people outside of the north side. Sure I am not against the north side by any means but we need someone who sees that south of Madison is just as much a part of Chicago's future as north of it. In fact if we want this city to someday surpass it's 1950 population apex of 3.62 million we need someone to see that, we will find out this week aparently how well Chicago fared for the 2010 census. This is why I feel a runoff is absouletely necessary for the future of this city regardless of who ultimatly becomes mayor and whoever that is will be a better mayor because of it.

I do agree that the more discussions we have on the tough issues the better but, I'm having a hard time grasping your logic questioning a candidates loyalty based on where he grew up.

I am a professional african american man who did not always agree with how Mayor Daley operated but respected what he did for the City and believed he sincerely tried to change the culture of this great place we live in. However, there are too many african american leaders and average Chicagoans who believe he didn't do enough for the south and west sides. I know people who work in planning and economic development that will tell you that he didn't focus enough on what needed to be done outside of the central area and north lakefront. Mayor Daley grew up on the south side.

As someone who works in the urban planning field, I don't agree with most of the critics of the mayor on this issue. I do not believe that Rham would neglect the south side at the expense of the north side. I does not take a genius to figure out that large parts of the south side and west side need help and that if neglected the entire city will continue to suffer. I would also find it hard to believe that while working under President Obama issues concerning the south and west side did not surface.

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by urbanpln

I do agree that the more discussions we have on the tough issues the better but, I'm having a hard time grasping your logic questioning a candidates loyalty based on where he grew up.

I am a professional african american man who did not always agree with how Mayor Daley operated but respected what he did for the City and believed he sincerely tried to change the culture of this great place we live in. However, there are too many african american leaders and average Chicagoans who believe he didn't do enough for the south and west sides. I know people who work in planning and economic development that will tell you that he didn't focus enough on what needed to be done outside of the central area and north lakefront. Mayor Daley grew up on the south side.

As someone who works in the urban planning field, I don't agree with most of the critics of the mayor on this issue. I do not believe that Rham would neglect the south side at the expense of the north side. I does not take a genius to figure out that large parts of the south side and west side need help and that if neglected the entire city will continue to suffer. I would also find it hard to believe that while working under President Obama issues concerning the south and west side did not surface.

First of all let me be clear that I am not questioning any candidate based on where they grew up. If I did not word it properly or make it clear in my original post I apologize. I was using "north shore" and "north side" at different times but I was referring to the latter as far as Rahm possibly being north side (of the city) centric. My point was that I don't quesion people based on where they grew up but I also said that to the extent Chico has other candidates have as well such as Alexi Gianoulias. Unfair as it is in some circles of left of center politics in Illinois the north shore is going to be a punching bag to rile up some ignorant lower income people into voting for certain candidates, unfortunatly thats politics. Other than the fact that Rahm is from the north shore and he wouldn't bash where he grew up I don't doubt for a second that Rahm would use provincialism/classism if he knew it would get him votes, to think otherwise is nieve.

As far as everything else you said I want to clarify that I don't necessarily believe that Rahm will totally screw the south side over but rather I don't trust him as much as I do Chico in that regard. As far as Obama is concerned some in the black community are actually pissed at Rahm for not having the administration do enough for the south and west sides whether that is fair or not. I remember early in the race Rahm was at a restaurant in a black neighborhood and two black males came up to him and asked him why he didn't do enough to help the south and west sides. So it is a legitimate issue, just because he was in the Obama administration and is at least tokenly sensitive to such issues doesn't mean he necessarily did a good enough job.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

that's all fine and dandy that you're willing to turn a blind eye to chico's shameful provincialism, but i can't let it slide. gery chico thinks that i could never be qualified to be mayor of chicago merely because i happened to grow up in the place that my parents decided to raise their family. well, you know what, i think gery chicao could never be qualified to be mayor of chicago because he's too much of a myopic, tribal homer. this notion that someone needs to spend every waking and sleeping hour of their entire life within the confines of the city of chicago's 228 sq. miles in order to be qualified to be mayor of the people of chicago is asinine. just plain old asinine.

it's all moot anyway because, barring some unforeseen political earthquake in the next 10 days, rahm will win outright with over 50% on the 22nd.

Kudos to you. The same thing can be said about people [families that either lived in or out of the city limits] this city limit thing seems perocal and simplistic at best, ignorant in the least.

What is it about the city limits that think at suburbanites are not true Chicagoans regardless if they were born in or out of the city limits. I myself was not born in
Chicago. I lived in Chicago for some point in time but I do not understand the distaste for those that lived in the region and support the region by simply moving outside city limits as being tagged as non Chicagoans.

If anyone had a second city syndrome it would be city residents and their disdain for 2 out of 3 peoples that populate [ and live by choice in the burbs ] the greater Chicagoland area.


There is often a snide repore with those that more than just support but make the entire region thrive that live outside of the city limits and like a Polack joke a suburban family is to be a sub human joke of a family.


Belive it or not there are 100's of thousands of daily commuters, and lots of monies outside of the city limits. Schools in the city suck we all know. Anyone with money would send their child to a private school. But I have known more than a few new families fleeing to any burb you would like to think of just to avoid the public school system which we all know is a real disgrace and there is little me or Rham can do about it.


The point is is that it is easy to slam the people and the people that power the industries in Chicagoland by calling them suburbanites and righting them off as weaklings.... to you own loss most of the Chicagoland Billionaires and Millionaires and their power structure does not live in the city limits.

Gosh some of you people seem so south [Bridgeport, Beverly] in mind set that they forget to realize that the most of the population of Chicagoland lives outside of the city limits... I do not understand why this is such a hard concept to understand unless one was not educated at a higher level, whether in state or out of state, either at a private college or university or a state level institution.


This parochial issue that you have to live in the city limits of Chicago to have a true vote is contaminated for my reasons mentioned above. Those that demand only Chicago limits as a determination of candiciy or the color of one’s skin is so narrow minded, to a degree that I would not even want to discuss this matter at a future point.



The point is is that Rahm does not have to be born in the City Limits. If the past post of mine was not clear enough for you than PM me, give me your telephone number, and I will explain it to you personally.

[Chicago103]

Originally Posted by bnk

The point is is that Rahm does not have to be born in the City Limits. If the past post of mine was not clear enough for you than PM me, give me your telephone number, and I will explain it to you personally.

While I agree with some of what you are saying I think I need to clarify certain things. For one thing did you mean to imply that those living in the suburbs should have a right to vote in city of Chicago elections? That makes no sense anymore than saying I should have a right to vote for the mayor of Naperville and every other suburb as a Chicago city resident because we all live in the same region. In that sense as important as suburbanities are to Chicagoland you still are not on the same level as city of Chicago residents for the simple reason that you can't vote for mayor of Chicago, there is no Chicago, IL on your driver's license or postal address and some other municipality besides the city of Chicago provides you with city services. I am all for working with suburbanities but to say there is no difference between city and suburbs I draw the line there. If you want that to change then petition your suburb and others to amalgamate into the city of Chicago in a similar way that Toronto did.

Now as far as where people were born or raised I agree 100%. Its current residency in the city that dertermines whether you are a Chicagoan or not, it has nothing to do with some stamp for life you have on your ass based on where you happened to be born which is out of your control. Its pretty shitty to slap someone with an eternal label as an outsider simply because of where you were born or lived in the past. So for those that chose to live in the city of Chicago whether you have lived here your entire life or just moved here from somewhere else you are a Chicagoan. If you live in the suburbs you are a Chicagolander. Also for what it is worth Rahm Emanuel was born in Chicago city limits.