Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's scary to think how these people might react to a PSPP PQ government which looks like it would be a majority.

What sort of coverage does PSPP get in the Montreal Gazette and other Anglophone media of the province? Is he harshly criticized, vilified? or is he given a benign treatment? He strikes me as more charismatic and "télégénique" than Marois, so perhaps he's not vilified as much, despite having positions on independence as "extreme" as her if not more.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

Sorry, my mistake!

No problem.

And thanks for the numbers you found, I was curious about those.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

What sort of coverage does PSPP get in the Montreal Gazette and other Anglophone media of the province? Is he harshly criticized, vilified? or is he given a benign treatment? He strikes me as more charismatic and "télégénique" than Marois, so perhaps he's not vilified as much, despite having positions on independence as "extreme" as her if not more.

They're too busy losing their minds over the CAQ to do a true threat assessment of PSPP. The CAQ have a majority and will be in power until 2026. They are the clear and present danger.

Though they never like any of the PQ people - not until they are dead anyway. Then the old dead PQ people are used against the current ones, à la "oh René Levesque or Jacques Parizeau, now those were noble péquistes, not like the current ones who are horrible xenophobic racists."

I was around back then. I remember when they called Lévesque and Parizeau Nazis.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

What sort of coverage does PSPP get in the Montreal Gazette and other Anglophone media of the province? Is he harshly criticized, vilified? or is he given a benign treatment? He strikes me as more charismatic and "télégénique" than Marois, so perhaps he's not vilified as much, despite having positions on independence as "extreme" as her if not more.

I think they have a clear self-interest in not turning the spotlight onto PSPP. The less the PQ comes back from the grave, the better. If they could completely ignore PSPP and pretend he doesn’t exist, they likely would.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The CAQ have a majority and will be in power until 2026.

No possibility of early elections? I don't remember whether the Québec premier can still disband the Assemblée nationale and call for early elections, or whether it's now impossible (they were talking of cancelling this power 10 years ago, but I haven't followed since then). In Britain also they were talking of cancelling this power, but they haven't done so in the end.

[lio45]

The CAQ would get absolutely demolished if an election took place anytime soon; they’ll cling to their majority until 2026 and hope that things change in the meantime. Zero chance they don’t want to push their rendez-vous with the electorate to the latest date possible.

And yes, the date for the election is already set in October of 2026, but it’s still theoretically possible for the party in power to bypass the law — though I don’t expect any party to ever do that as there’d likely be an electoral price to pay.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This week Amazon introduced a marker for Québec products on its website. It was immediately deluged with hostile messages and people saying now they know which products NOT to buy. All messages in English. Most seemingly from Québec.

Aside from the irony that these people depend on Québec services paid for by tax revenue from Québec products in large part, the reaction is completely insane.

(I have never seen a comparable massive call for a boycott of ROC products simply because they are from the ROC.)

Anyway it's not entirely new. The same crowd went completely nuts in 2012 when Pauline Marois of the PQ was elected Premier.

Unfortunately there was also an assassination attempt on her by Richard Henry Bain that led to the death of a poor innocent guy and the lifelong disability of another.

Internet comments are always full of crazy and stupid things. Business owners and entrepreneurs in Quebec from my experience tend to be much more federalist and open to other languages. Sure they can be Quebec nationalists but they are normally so busy working that they don't obsess with that sort of thing. It's never a good idea to insult potential clients when you're a business owner.

And on something interesting that happened today in Timmins. I was waiting in line behind a woman at the Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacy prescription pick-up line and she spoke in French to the guy working there. The guy was an immigrant from India who obviously didn't speak French. It was pretty funny because the guy understood her name and gave her the prescription. He even tried to say the amount that she owed in French and almost had it right and the lady laughed that he even attempted. She was not expecting that. It was obvious the guy has been taking some basic French language course. There were no francophone employees working in the pharmacy at that moment. Up until a few years ago being served in French at Shoppers in Timmins was something one could expect. All of the store signage is bilingual at both Shoppers locations. During the week there is always someone Francophone working but not always on weekends it seems.

I have been noticing that some immigrant-owned businesses in Timmins are attempting to get bilingual employees as there are still enough francophone residents and quite a few francophone visitors who speak little English.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The Marois government was a minority and came after several years of anglo-friendly Liberal governments.

It's scary to think how these people might react to a PSPP PQ government which looks like it would be a majority. Plus it would come on the heels of the CAQ which is also driving anglos nuts.

Imagine being a Quebec Anglo and hating the CAQ with a passion, and realizing that the only realistic alternative for another government is... the PQ.

It should be noted that the PQ up to now according to polls has the support of 32% of voters. It's exactly the same as what the party got when Pauline Marois became premier and a short-lived minority government. The PQ's weakness from my perspective was economic performance when governing. They also need a PM in Ottawa who can be easily bashed to attract support. They weren't able to do it well with Harper as PM. But they seem to do it well when the federal PM is a Quebecer. But I think that they will have the potential to drive a PP government off the rails if PP becomes PM.

Someone like PSPP has the charisma and drive to win but the PQ will have to start appealing to younger Quebecers which it really hasn't up to now.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by lio45

The CAQ would get absolutely demolished if an election took place anytime soon; they’ll cling to their majority until 2026 and hope that things change in the meantime. Zero chance they don’t want to push their rendez-vous with the electorate to the latest date possible.

And yes, the date for the election is already set in October of 2026, but it’s still theoretically possible for the party in power to bypass the law — though I don’t expect any party to ever do that as there’d likely be an electoral price to pay.

Things in Quebec can be quite volatile. And election campaigns are much different than when it's not a campaign. Remember the 2014 Quebec election when the governing Marois PQ called the election thinking it had a shot at a majority? The party was at about 40% in polls and had a disastrous campaign and ended up with only about 25% of the votes losing to the PLQ which won a majority.

Currently the PQ has only 32% support but enough to win a minority. I can see Legault stepping down if CAQ numbers remain low as he has been party leader since 2011.

[harls]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Internet comments are always full of crazy and stupid things.

Jamais.

[harls]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Yeah, but they are raised bilingual. Here we were talking of people who were raised in one language, and learned the other later.

We were? I thought we were talking about Québec..

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by harls

We were? I thought we were talking about Québec..

As in, born in the ROC in Anglophone families, and learning French later. Some here think these people would be detrimental to the NON side if they intervened in a referendum campaign.

[Acajack]

Nice to hear.

Originally Posted by Loco101

Internet comments are always full of crazy and stupid things. Business owners and entrepreneurs in Quebec from my experience tend to be much more federalist and open to other languages. Sure they can be Quebec nationalists but they are normally so busy working that they don't obsess with that sort of thing. It's never a good idea to insult potential clients when you're a business owner.

And on something interesting that happened today in Timmins. I was waiting in line behind a woman at the Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacy prescription pick-up line and she spoke in French to the guy working there. The guy was an immigrant from India who obviously didn't speak French. It was pretty funny because the guy understood her name and gave her the prescription. He even tried to say the amount that she owed in French and almost had it right and the lady laughed that he even attempted. She was not expecting that. It was obvious the guy has been taking some basic French language course. There were no francophone employees working in the pharmacy at that moment. Up until a few years ago being served in French at Shoppers in Timmins was something one could expect. All of the store signage is bilingual at both Shoppers locations. During the week there is always someone Francophone working but not always on weekends it seems.

I have been noticing that some immigrant-owned businesses in Timmins are attempting to get bilingual employees as there are still enough francophone residents and quite a few francophone visitors who speak little English.

[Acajack]

One thing is that the mix of electoral support in Québec was different back then. The PLQ was much stronger and QS was weaker, and the PCQ (conservateur) was a non-factor. I think that is why pollsters at this point think 32% is enough to give the PQ a majority.

Originally Posted by Loco101

It should be noted that the PQ up to now according to polls has the support of 32% of voters. It's exactly the same as what the party got when Pauline Marois became premier and a short-lived minority government. The PQ's weakness from my perspective was economic performance when governing. They also need a PM in Ottawa who can be easily bashed to attract support. They weren't able to do it well with Harper as PM. But they seem to do it well when the federal PM is a Quebecer. But I think that they will have the potential to drive a PP government off the rails if PP becomes PM.

Someone like PSPP has the charisma and drive to win but the PQ will have to start appealing to younger Quebecers which it really hasn't up to now.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

As in, born in the ROC in Anglophone families, and learning French later. Some here think these people would be detrimental to the NON side if they intervened in a referendum campaign.

OK so if I can link everything together.

If one of harls' kids grows up to be a prominent federal politician, that kid will not be a problem intervening for the Non side publicly because a) he will be from Québec and b) he will speak with a Québécois accent.

Similar to Brian Mulroney for example.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

One thing is that the mix of electoral support in Québec was different back then. The PLQ was much stronger and QS was weaker, and the PCQ (conservateur) was a non-factor. I think that is why pollsters at this point think 32% is enough to give the PQ a majority.

Good point, Pauline Marois had 32% with three parties, now we’re looking at 32% with five parties, that’s majority territory at first sight.

2022 election, five parties, four of them ~15% each, CAQ ~40%, result being a super strong CAQ majority, out of proportion with what you normally get with 40%.

FPTP doesn’t work well at translating votes into seats when there are many parties. It’s why winner-takes-all systems (Canada, USA, UK…) nearly always stabilize at having two, and only two, major parties.

[New Brisavoine]

Weren't they supposed to drop FPTP? FPTP seems so archaic... Another British legacy. I can't understand why Québec still has it in 2024.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Weren't they supposed to drop FPTP? FPTP seems so archaic... Another British legacy. I can't understand why Québec still has it in 2024.

The CAQ government is just the latest in a long line of Canadian governments (federal and provincial) that promised to replace the FPTP in favour of some proportional system, but who ditched the idea once they were in power.

The reason being is that opposition parties bitch about FPTP when they're not the government, because it hasn't worked for them. But once they get elected, they have a clear example of FPTP working for them, so they hate it less.

[lio45]

All parties switch to liking FPTP as soon as they become in a position to be able to modify it. It's always like that! Yes, I'm cynical, but I'm also right

A more realistic way to "fix the problem" would be to get back to two political parties. The flaws of FPTP are perfectly bearable then.

Interestingly, the PQ and PLQ could each absorb almost all other parties.

The only pairings that can't work:
PQ and PLQ can't merge;
CAQ and QS can't merge;
PCQ and QS can't merge.

All the other merger combinations are within the realm of the possible.

Some examples:

CAQ could easily swallow the PCQ;
Then with the rise of the PQ and the CAQ bleeding half their support to it, it becomes a smaller-than-before, mostly federalist, pro-economy party, and thus a good fit for a merger with the PLQ;
Meanwhile, the PLQ would absorb QS (both being very urban, woke, very Montreal-based parties and good fits on many issues).

So in this scenario, PQ vs [PLQ + CAQ + PCQ + QS]

And the opposite extreme,
CAQ swallows PCQ (easy fit);
PQ restarts the merger talks with QS, prevails and absorbs it (QS having a hard ceiling at 15% ends up preferring some share of power within a bigger tent PQ)
PQ merges with CAQ (Ministers Drainville, Legault, etc. going "back home" after resoundingly failing their autonomist experiment...)

And in this scenario, PLQ vs [PQ + CAQ + PCQ + QS]

[1overcosc]

With its many political parties and complex politics that is a lot more sophisticated than Anglo North America's left vs right binary, Quebec seems a very good candidate for a PR system and the nuanced multi-party system that enables.